DraftKings NFL Value Plays: Week 12 (2020)
As both the NFL and our world continue to battle the COVID-19 pandemic, football can be a healthy distraction, and daily fantasy sport (DFS) sites offer a fun way to get skin in the game. Let’s break down the Week 12 slate at DraftKings.
If you want to fire up some studs in your DFS lineups, you’ll have to find cheaper options somewhere who can return value. By “value,” I mean a player who offers some upside but won’t bust for zero points. To hit value, a player should get between three to four times their salary in fantasy points. I’ll look at quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers under $6K, and at tight ends under $4.5K.
Check back next week for another slate of picks — and for my results from the week before!
Last Week’s Picks
Joe Flacco (NYJ): 15.4 points (3.08x)
Logan Thomas (WAS): 2.8 points (0.84x)
Last week went alright. We only had two true whiffs, Thomas and Snead, while everyone else posted rock-solid numbers. That said, we didn’t get much upside out of them, and I’m shooting a bit higher in Week 12.
This Week’s Value Plays
Mike Glennon (JAC): $4,600 vs. CLE
Glennon will make his first start since losing the Bears job to Mitch Trubisky in 2017. He’ll face the Browns, who give up the 10th-most DraftKings points per game (DKPPG) to quarterbacks (21.3). Cleveland won’t have star cornerback Denzel Ward this week, which will make Glennon’s life a lot easier. Even better, the veteran signal-caller only needs 13.8 points to hit value, and I don’t think he’ll have any problem doing that against Cleveland.
Honorable mention: Derek Carr (LV): $5,700 at ATL.
Todd Gurley (ATL): $5,500 vs. LV
Yes, I’m aware that Gurley didn’t do much against New Orleans. That’s fine. He’s an excellent bounce-back candidate this week, especially if the Falcons have to play without Julio Jones. The Las Vegas Raiders give up the fourth-most DKPPG to running backs (28.9), and that includes the second-most rushing touchdowns (12). Gurley commands this team’s red zone workload; he has 18 carries inside the 10-yard line (78.3% team share) and eight scores from that distance. It’s worth noting that Gurley missed Wednesday’s practice with a knee injury, and while that could be a regularly scheduled break for his arthritic knee, it’s a story worth following. Brian Hill ($4,000) would be a viable option if Gurley can’t play.
UPDATE: Gurley has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Raiders. As a result, you should start Hill in this spot instead.
James White (NE): $4,500 vs. ARI
With Rex Burkhead down, White is in for a heavy workload in the passing game. The Patriots have thrown to running backs on 29.1% of their passes, and since Sony Michel and Damien Harris don’t draw targets from Cam Newton, the workload will fall upon the veteran from Wisconsin. The Cardinals aren’t the best matchup to target — they give up the 12th-fewest DKPPG to running backs — but the 8.3 targets per game that White should draw offer considerable value in DraftKings’ PPR format. With his 80% catch rate and 8.0 yards per catch, White should nab around 7.4 receptions for 60 yards. That’s enough to hit value at this price without a touchdown.
Honorable mention: Frank Gore (NYJ): $4,300 vs. MIA.
Nelson Agholor (LV): $4,900 at ATL
Atlanta’s secondary might not be the worst in the league, but it’s certainly up there. They have given up the third-most DKPPG to the position (45.7), and they have surrendered the highest rate of explosive passes (12%). That’s great news for Agholor, who has surprisingly emerged as Derek Carr’s go-to deep threat. He’s scored six touchdowns on the year, four of them from 20 yards or deeper. The veteran wideout ranks third in targets for the Raiders with 38 (12.7%), beating out younger guys like Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards. He’s your best bet to take advantage of Atlanta’s soft secondary.
Breshad Perriman (NYJ): $4,200 vs. MIA
The New York Jets are not good at football. They haven’t won a game this season, and they failed to score a single point the last time they played the Miami Dolphins. So why am I recommended one of their wide receivers? Perriman has a strong connection with veteran gunslinger Joe Flacco, and in the three starts he made with Perriman active, the wideout has 11 catches for 217 yards and three touchdowns. He caught four passes for 62 yards against the Dolphins last time, which could be better, but his rare combination of size and speed means that he can score at any point — as long as it’s Flacco throwing him the ball.
Honorable mention: If Julio Jones can’t play, consider Olamide Zaccheaus (ATL): $3,800 vs. LV.
Jordan Reed (SF): $3,600 at LAR
Reed is the responsible pick on this slate. He is a rare inexpensive high-floor option — he caught five passes for 62 yards in Week 10, good for a high-end TE1 finish due to the lack of other producers at the position. Reed will continue to draw a ton of targets with George Kittle sidelined, and even if Raheem Mostert and Deebo Samuel get back, his red-zone usage means that he can survive a low-volume week by scoring a touchdown.
Honorable mention: Donald Parham (LAC): $2.500 vs. BUF.
Beyond our daily fantasy football content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Value Plays – which allows you to identify players who are projected to outperform their salaries – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.