Kyle Yates’ Week 13 Fantasy Projections (2020 Fantasy Football)

Welcome to the final week of the 2020 fantasy football regular season! For as long and drawn out that 2020 has been, it feels like this fantasy season has absolutely flown by us so quickly.

There are some crucial matchup decisions that have to be made this week and I have got all 15 games below here covered for you. If you look below though, you’ll notice that this article looks a little bit different! If you’ve been reading this article all season, you know that I’ve operated within the Vegas implied point totals and I’ve relied on whole touchdown projections.

While this is how actual football works, there’s too much variance within it from a fantasy football perspective. A six-point swing for a player just because I gave them a touchdown in my projections isn’t exactly the most helpful for you all as fantasy managers. With that in mind, you’ll find that I’ve included fractional touchdown projections below with the percentage chance that I believe a player finds the end zone in their specific matchup.

This will serve as a better way to figure out the best fantasy points projection rather than trying to exactly determine which players receive the touchdown in their games. I’m still operating within the Vegas implied point totals, but hopefully this helps this article become even more of a useful tool for you as you set your fantasy football lineups.

This is the first year that I’ve done this article, so I’ve adapted and changed things along the way as I receive feedback and learn more. I promise to always listen and adjust my process, if needed, to help provide you with more accurate fantasy analysis.

NO at ATL | JAC at MIN | CLE at TEN | DET at CHI | CIN at MIA | WAS at PIT | IND at HOU | LVR at NYJ | NYG at SEA | LAR at ARI | NE at LAC | PHI at GB | DEN at KC | DAL at BAL | BUF at SF

Enjoy this weekend’s games and best of luck in your fantasy matchups!

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons

Date/Time: December 6, 1:00pm ET
Spread: Saints -2.5
Over/Under: 45 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Saints 23.75, Falcons 21.25

New Orleans Saints

__________

Atlanta Falcons

__________

Quarterback

New Orleans: Hill’s not exactly setting the league on fire as a passer, but he’s now scored four rushing touchdowns in his two games as the starter. As long as Hill is getting the rushing opportunities, he deserves to be in your starting lineup each week as a low-end QB1.

Atlanta: Ryan didn’t have the best fantasy performance in week 12, but it was enough to lead his team to a resounding victory. In this matchup, Ryan’s difficult to fully trust after what we saw last week in a better matchup. Ryan should be viewed as a mid-range QB2 this week.

Running Backs

New Orleans: Are we officially concerned about Kamara now? After being one of the most consistent fantasy assets with Drew Brees at QB, Kamara has now fallen off a cliff with Hill at QB. This offense simply isn’t throwing the ball much and what little opportunity there is seems to be only going Michael Thomas‘ way. Kamara’s a fantastic runner between the tackles, but his fantasy value comes from his work as a receiver. If he’s not getting that opportunity, he needs to be viewed as a low-end RB1 moving forward. Murray exploded with his increased opportunity last week. Unfortunately, there’s unlikely to be as much of a need for Murray this week against Atlanta as the Saints will have to throw the ball more than 16 times. Murray’s a fine high-end RB3 right now, but we can’t expect the type of performance we saw in week 12 moving forward.

Atlanta: Gurley was downgraded to DNP on Thursday, which makes it highly unlikely that he suits up for this game. With that in mind, we should see a committee approach from Atlanta again with this backfield. While both Ito Smith and Brian Hill were decent plays last week, they have a much tougher matchup than the Raiders in front of them here. Smith has more involvement in the receiving game, which makes him the safer play, but there’s not going to be much room to run in this one. Smith can be viewed as a high-end RB3, but he’ll need to find the end zone to break the top-24. Hill’s merely a mid-range RB3 that will need to somehow find the end zone to return value.

Wide Receivers

New Orleans: Right now, Thomas is the only Saints receiver worth considering for fantasy football. While this is a fantastic matchup for opposing WRs, it’s hard to trust this passing attack right now. Thomas can be viewed as a high-end WR2, but he’ll need to finish with a score to crack the top-12.

Atlanta: After getting in a limited practice on Wednesday, Julio was downgraded to DNP on Thursday. It’s unlikely that he plays in this matchup. Ridley should get right back to being one of the most consistent fantasy options out there this week, even in a tougher matchup on paper. Ridley can be started as a mid-range WR1.

Tight Ends

New Orleans: None of the Saints TEs should be considered for fantasy football this week.

Atlanta: With Julio most likely out for this game, Hurst does receive a bit of a boost from a target share perspective. He has a tough matchup in front of him, but he should do enough to return low-end TE1 value.

FantasyProjection Buster: Murray’s a bit of a wildcard in this matchup. Will he receive plenty of work on the ground and surpass my projection totals? Or does he take a back seat to Taysom Hill around the goal line?

__________

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Minnesota Vikings

Date/Time: December 6, 1:00pm ET
Spread: Vikings -10.5
Over/Under: 51 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Vikings 30.75, Jaguars 20.25

Jacksonville Jaguars

__________

Minnesota Vikings

__________

Quarterback

Jacksonville: Glennon’s going to get the start here again in Jacksonville this week and he should be able to get enough done against the Minnesota secondary, but he’s still not worth looking at in 1QB leagues.

Minnesota: Cousins has been one of the better fantasy football QBs here in recent weeks and he now has a fantastic matchup here in front of him. Dalvin Cook might not be 100%, which means that Cousins may need to throw the ball a bit more in this game. This puts Cousins squarely in the streaming QB conversation and he could easily finish within the top-5 yet again.

Running Backs

Jacksonville: It blows my mind a bit how QB-proof James Robinson has been this season. It doesn’t matter who he has at QB, he just continues to produce for fantasy football with his ridiculous carry totals. Up against the Vikings defense, Robinson’s a mid-range RB1 that could finish even higher than that. He’s a no-brainer start at this point.

Minnesota: Cook appears to be a little bit banged up, but it sounds like his status for Week 13 isn’t in question. If he plays, Cook’s a top-3 start. Even with the potential injury concerns, this is a matchup that you start your opposing RBs against.

Wide Receivers

Jacksonville: At this point of the week, both DJ Chark and Chris Conley have gotten in limited practices. Trying to project whether or not they’re going to start is an absolute headache right now. If Chark plays, he’s worth plugging into your lineup as a low-end WR2 in a great matchup. If Chark plays, Cole is worth considering as a FLEX play, but he would get a slight boost if Chark is unable to go. Otherwise, every other pass-catcher here in Jacksonville is an absolute dart throw. We’ll know more by Sunday, but it’s impossible to analyze this receiving corps right now with the information we have available to us.

Minnesota: Thielen’s off the COVID list and he should be ready to go for this matchup here against the Jaguars secondary. The Jaguars are allowing the 5th most fantasy points to opposing WRs this season and Thielen should be in line for a big performance. He can be started as a mid-range WR1. With the matchup this week, Jefferson’s an automatic start. While he doesn’t have top-5 upside due to Adam Thielen being back in the lineup, he’s not that far off. Jefferson can be viewed as a high-end WR2 this week.

Tight Ends

Jacksonville: Eifert was able to reel in the touchdown last week, but he’s not worth plugging into your lineup as anything more than a dart throw at this point.

Minnesota: It’s looking unlikely that Irv Smith suits up for this game, which instantly puts Rudolph into the streaming conversation. With the matchup against the Jaguars, who are allowing the second most fantasy points to opposing TEs, Rudolph should be viewed as a high-end TE2 this week.

FantasyProjection Buster: Any of the Jaguars receivers due to the unknowns at the position. Will the players I’ve included even play?

__________

Cleveland Browns vs Tennessee Titans

Date/Time: December 6, 1:00pm ET
Spread: Titans -5.5
Over/Under: 53.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Titans 29.5, Browns 24

Cleveland Browns

__________

Tennessee Titans

__________

Quarterback

Cleveland: Baker was a fine streaming option last week, and he certainly has another solid matchup here against Tennessee, but the passing volume might not be enough. Baker can be viewed as a low-end streaming QB this week.

Tennessee: Tannehill played a fine game last week, but he wasn’t exactly needed much with Derrick Henry running all over the Colts. The same thing could happen again here, which makes Tannehill a risky play. He’s certainly in the streaming conversation, but there are most likely better options available for you.

Running Backs

Cleveland: Chubb was able to put together a monstrous performance yet again last week, but it is concerning that he’s not being given the goal-line looks in this offense. Hunt is primarily getting those opportunities, which hampers Chubb’s overall fantasy outlook. Regardless, he’s still someone that you plug into your lineup every single week as a mid-range RB1. Hunt was very effective on the ground last week on his 10 carries, but that was really all he was able to put together. He wasn’t able to find the end zone and he received only two targets, which he failed to bring in. Hunt’s still worth plugging in as a mid-range RB2 this week in this matchup, but it seems like the hope that he was going to be a safe play every single week is now dwindling.

Tennessee: Are there any other running backs that you’d rather have in fantasy football right now? I wouldn’t. Henry’s utterly dominant and he should have another big performance here. Start him as a top-tier option yet again in week 13.

Wide Receivers

Cleveland: Landry was able to produce in a big way in week 12 against the Jags secondary. He saw 11 targets, while the next highest total on the team was three! Landry has another great matchup here against the Titans secondary and he can be plugged back into your lineup as a safe low-end WR3.

Tennessee: Brown had a tough matchup on paper last week, but he came through for fantasy managers that went with the mantra “start your studs”. He’s one of the best young wideouts in the game and he belongs in your lineup every single game. This week, he can be viewed as a low-end WR1 against the Browns secondary. Davis didn’t have a large target total in week 12, but he made them count. Even in a game where Tannehill threw the ball only 22 times, Davis is still providing a safe floor each week. He can be viewed as a mid-range WR3 in this matchup.

Tight Ends

Cleveland: Hooper only saw two targets last week, but he made them count by finding the end zone. The minimal target share is concerning moving forward, but there aren’t many tight ends who are seeing a significant and consistent target share every week. Hooper’s worth plugging into your lineup again as a low-end TE1.

Tennessee: Smith is being asked to stay in and block a significant amount in this offense, which is rough to see from a fantasy perspective. Smith’s one of the most talented receiving tight ends in the league, but he’s not being utilized to his full potential in this offense. He now needs to be viewed as a touchdown-dependent TE2 each week. You can most likely find a more trustworthy option for your starting lineup.

FantasyProjection Buster: Jonnu Smith is one of the most talented receiving tight ends in the game and he has a great matchup in front of him. Will the Titans utilize him heavily this week? Or will he see zero targets again this week? THere’s a wide range of outcomes here with Smith, which means that he can easily break my projections.

__________

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears

Date/Time: December 6, 1:00pm ET
Spread: Bears -3
Over/Under: 44.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Bears 23.75, Lions 20.75

Detroit Lions

__________

Chicago Bears

__________

Quarterback

Detroit: Based on Stafford’s track record this season of performing in tough matchups, he could have a solid game here…but there’s absolutely no way you can trust him heading into this matchup. He should be viewed as a low-end QB2.

Chicago: Trubisky had a couple of bone-headed interceptions in week 12, but he was actually able to move the ball, as opposed to what we had been seeing from Nick Foles previously. Against the Lions, who are a very beatable defense, Trubisky could be looked at as a streaming QB this week. It won’t be pretty, but he should be able to get the job done for fantasy football.

Running Backs

Detroit: Swift was close to returning last week, so we should have him back for this matchup. The Packers RBs took care of business last week, but this is still a tough matchup on paper. Swift should be viewed as a mid-range RB2 that should see plenty of work, but he’ll need to find the end zone to crack the top-12.

Chicago: Montgomery cracked the 100-yard mark last week, but it was buoyed by one giant run. With the Bears playing catch-up all game, Montgomery wasn’t utilized much on the ground, but he came through with a receiving touchdown. This is another fantastic matchup for opposing RBs and Montgomery should be viewed as a safe, mid-range RB2 again with upside.

Wide Receivers

Detroit: At this point, it’s looking unlikely that Kenny Golladay plays here this week. With that being the case, Marvin Jones is someone that we can consider for our fantasy lineups, but it’s not worth getting too excited about. This offense has looked flat the past couple of outings and Jones is merely just a low-end WR3 with little upside due to the matchup.

Chicago: Robinson’s really the only Bears receiver that you want to be looking at for fantasy purposes and the Bears made it a point to get him involved last week. Moving forward, Robinson should be viewed as a locked-in WR1 every week with ridiculous upside if he sees the target totals that he did in week 12.

Tight Ends

Detroit: Hockenson has now established himself as one of the most consistent fantasy assets in the game. Continue to fire him up as a weekly top-tier option.

Chicago: Graham’s merely just a streaming option at this point that could have a solid performance here against the struggling Lions defense.

FantasyProjection Buster: Montgomery’s in a prime spot to put together a solid fantasy outing, but there’s no telling what this offense will look like any given week. Montgomery belongs in your starting lineup, but there’s the possibility that he disappoints.

Having trouble viewing the next page on mobile? Click this link for page 2