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Week 1 is in the books. I had some good calls in last week’s article, but I also had some misses, which is bound to happen when you’re looking at values in DFS — not to mention it was Week 1 and so much has changed from last season. Each week, I’ll recap the picks I made in the last article before diving into the new week. Here were last week’s picks…
Last Week’s Picks
Quarterback
DraftKings: Sam Darnold (QB – CAR), Jameis Winston (QB – NO)
FanDuel: Carson Wentz (QB – IND), Sam Darnold
Running Back
DraftKings: Phillip Lindsay (RB – HOU), Chase Edmonds (RB – ARI), Damien Harris (RB – NE)
FanDuel: James Robinson (RB – JAC), Trey Sermon (RB – SF), Myles Gaskin (RB – MIA)
Wide Receiver
DraftKings: Marquez Callaway (WR – NO), Michael Pittman Jr. (WR – IND), Tee Higgins (WR – CIN)
FanDuel: Corey Davis (WR – NYJ), Marquez Callaway (WR – NO), Russell Gage (WR – ATL)
Tight End
DraftKings: Gerald Everett (TE – SEA), Adam Trautman (TE – NO)
FanDuel: Tyler Conklin (TE – MIN), Mo Alie-Cox (TE – IND)
Week 2 Value Plays
Quarterback
DraftKings
Mac Jones (QB – NE): $5,400 @ NYJ
Jones threw the ball a lot more than I expected him to in Week 1 going 29-for-39 for 281 yards and a TD against a very good Miami defense. This week he gets the “less good” New York Jets. The Jets rank slightly below average in pass defense DVOA at 17, and they are 23rd in rushing defense after one week. Jones could throw it fewer times this week, but be even more effective off the play-action which could lead to bigger chunk plays and multiple touchdowns by the first-year quarterback.
Honorable mention: Teddy Bridgewater (QB – DEN): $5,400 @ JAX
FanDuel
Jimmy Garoppolo (QB – SF): $6,600 @ PHI
Fanduel did a good job pricing their quarterbacks this week and I didn’t find a lot of value I loved, but, if I’m going to pay down at quarterback, I’ll likely play Garoppolo. He had over 300 yards passing last week, and that was with a minimal contribution from all-pro tight end George Kittle (TE – SF). The Eagles rank high in every DVOA defensive category after one week, but I think it was more a product of how bad the Falcons played versus how well the Eagles played.
Honorable mention: Sam Darnold (QB – NYJ): $6,600 vs. NO
Running Back
DraftKings
Elijah Mitchell (RB – SF): $5,000 @ PHI
Mitchell will likely be the chalk this week after Raheem Mostert (RB – SF) was ruled out for the season. I will also have some exposure to Trey Sermon this week just to hedge my bets with the unpredictability of head coach Kyle Shanahan. I’ve been on the Elijah Mitchell train since April — I even wrote him up twice this offseason here and here — but as any fantasy player knows, this backfield has always been hard to figure out.
Ronald Jones (RB – TB): $4,800 vs. ATL
Head coach Bruce Arians came out and said Ronald Jones would be the starter in Week 2, even after ending up in the dog house for a fumble in Week 1 against Dallas. After one week the Falcons rank near the bottom of the league in rushing DVOA (24th) as they were gashed for 173 rushing yards last week versus the Eagles. At $4,800, in a plus matchup, Ronald Jones looks like a sneaky pivot from the chalky Mitchell.
Honorable mention: James White (RB – NE): $4,600 @ NYJ
FanDuel
Ronald Jones (TB) $5,300 vs. ATL
see above
Javonte Williams (RB – DEN): $5,500 @ JAX
If you look at the box score, it would appear that Melvin Gordon (RB – DEN) greatly outplayed Williams in last week’s game, but outside of his 70-yard run, Gordon wasn’t really doing a lot against a stout Giants defense. Yes, that 70-yard run still counts for fantasy scoring, but the fact remains, Williams had more carries, and while he himself wasn’t impressive either, he gets to play a suspect Jags defense this week which could help his efficiency.
Honorable mention: Trey Sermon (SF): $5,500 @ PHI
Wide Receiver
DraftKings
Corey Davis (WR – NYJ): $5,300 vs. NE
Clearly, Zach Wilson’s (QB – NYJ) No. 1 target after Week 1, Davis should once again be the top guy in Week 2. Davis had five catches on seven targets for 97 yards and two TDs in Week 1, and while I don’t expect a repeat performance of that game, I still think he pays off his $5,300 salary.
KJ Hamler (WR – DEN): $3,800 @ JAX
With Broncos’ second-year wide receiver, Jerry Jeudy (WR – DEN), set to miss at least the next six games, it will be KJ Hamler who will move into the slot where Jeudy did most of his damage. Hamler has shown flashes of his ability, including this past preseason when he caught an 80-yard touchdown against the Vikings. The Jags pass defense ranks 19th in DVOA after one week.
Honorable mention: Rondale Moore (WR – ARI): $4,000 vs. MIN, Marquez Callaway (WR – NO): $4,200 @ CAR
FanDuel
Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN): $5,500 @ CHI
So much for the “Ja’Marr Chase can’t catch an NFL football” narrative. He caught five of his seven targets for 101 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. The Bears will be a much tougher task as their defense should be better than they showed in Week 1. After one week, the Bears are the second-worst team in pass DVOA as they allowed Matthew Stafford (QB – LAR) to light them up on Sunday Night Football. Andy Dalton (QB – CHI) will never be confused for Matthew Stafford, but the Bengals will once again have to throw the ball a ton because their defense can’t stop anyone.
Bryan Edwards (WR – LV): $4,900 @ PIT
For three and three-quarters of the game last Monday, Bryan Edwards was the same receiver we saw last season — one that was not involved in the passing game at all. Then suddenly, something happened and Derek Carr (QB – LV) realized he has this 6-foot-3 215-pound wide receiver that runs a 4.5 40 on the outside that might be pretty good. We may have witnessed the breakout we had all been hoping for.
The Steelers present a tougher task, but because DraftKings releases the slate before the Monday night game is over, they could not adjust his $4,900 price tag — advantage us.
Honorable mention: Jalen Guyton (WR – LAC): $4,800 vs. DAL
Tight End
DraftKings
Cole Kmet (TE – CHI): $3,700 vs. CIN
Kmet received seven targets in Week 1, he caught five of them for only 42 yards, however, he was also playing a very stout Rams defense. This week he gets a Bengals team ranked 24th in passing defense DVOA as they allowed Kirk Cousins (QB – MIN) to throw for over 350 yards in Week 1.
Honorable mention:Tyler Conklin (TE – MIN): $3,200 @ ARI
FanDuel
Dalton Schultz (TE – DAL): $4,800 @ LAC
Schultz was the more targeted tight end between him and Blake Jarwin (TE – DAL) in Week 1, and the loss of wide receiver Michael Gallup (WR – DAL) might open up a few more targets for the two tight ends. The Chargers allowed a touchdown to tight end Logan Thomas (TE – WAS) last week, and they rank 31st in DVOA versus the tight end position after one week.
Honorable mention: Anthony Firkser (TE – TEN): $4,700 @ SEA
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