Sleeper ADP Values & Busts (21-22 Fantasy Basketball)
We’re heading into the home stretch of fantasy basketball draft season, and if you still haven’t drafted, this is the article for you. I recently completed a Sleeper mock with my good friend Dan Harris, and throughout the draft, there were obvious values and busts in each and every round. After that mock, I began combing through Sleeper’s ADP to identify my favorite values and busts. That comprehensive list can be found below with notes on the most prominent players and their Sleeper ADP listed to the right of their names.
De’Aaron Fox (SAC) 39.0
Fox finished 15th last season in per-game average for points leagues, so his ranking in the mid-fourth round is a bit puzzling. Over the last two seasons, Sacramento’s PG has averaged 23.1 points, 7.0 dimes, 3.6 boards, and 1.5 swipes – elite numbers to be sure.
Michael Porter (DEN) 52.3
MPJ was fantasy’s 48th ranked player a season ago in his breakout campaign, but this ADP is far from appropriate. Expected to take the next step in Year 3, Porter should be on your radar a round or two ahead of his current average draft pick.
Anthony Edwards (MIN) 89.0
Edwards finished 49th in points league per-game average a season ago, and that’s after a rocky start to his rookie campaign. He’s expected to improve this season, and there’s no way he should be going this late in drafts. Take full advantage of this absurdly-low ADP.
Kevin Porter (HOU) 98.6
To say that I love KPJ is a complete and utter understatement. The man was 55th in per-game average last season and showed off his tremendous upside in an April victory over the Bucks by detonating for 50 points and 11 dimes. With John Wall finished in H-Town, KPJ will start at PG, where he could erupt thanks to his elite scoring and facilitating.
Jordan Poole (GSW) 154.0
A masterful scorer who will start for the Warriors this season, Poole is flying way under the radar based on this ADP. He flashed his scoring upside for the Dubs a season ago and sits as the third leading scorer in the preseason with 23.2 points per contest.
Josh Giddey (OKC) 155.1
Through four preseason games the Australian PG has averaged 13.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 5.0 assists and looks to be the real deal as a nightly triple-double threat. That should mean some big games in a points league, and Giddey’s ADP is unfathomably low.
Mo Bamba (ORL) 167.7
Bamba finished last season on a high note, and he’s been tearing up the preseason with 11.5 points, 7.5 boards, and a whopping 3.8 blocks across four contests. The future is bright for the emerging star, and his ADP is criminally low.
De’Anthony Melton (MEM) 387.0
Even before Dillon Brooks got injured, there’s no way Melton should have ever fallen to 387. With Brooks out at least two weeks to start the season due to an ankle injury, Melton should take on a starting role to open the season. Across three seasons, Melton has averaged 13.1 points, 5.7 boards, 5.2 assists, and 2.3 swipes per-36 minutes. Desmond Bane is a sneaky target here, too.
Others: Paul George (20.6), Russell Westbrook (24.0), Brandon Ingram (28.0), LaMelo Ball (41.0), Tobias Harris (53.7), Christian Wood (53.8), Terry Rozier (75.8), Cade Cunningham (90.0), Jalen Green (91.1), Evan Mobley (94.9), Darius Garland (102.8), Evan Fournier (115.6), Kyle Kuzma (116.1), Derrick White (116.4), Harrison Barnes (129.5), Robert Williams (130.4), Nickeil Alexander-Walker (131.1), Isaiah Stewart (132.7), Kelly Olynyk (134.0), Jakob Poeltl (136.4), Reggie Jackson (156.9)
Andre Drummond (PHI) 42.2
It’s undeniable how productive Drummond has been throughout his career as a premier rebounder, but he’ll be backing up Joel Embiid this season which should lead to a major downturn in production. Barring an extended absence from Embiid, there’s no way Drummond can pay off this lofty ADP.
Robert Covington (POR) 58.3
In his first year with the Blazers, RoCo averaged 8.5 points, 6.7 boards, 1.7 dimes, 1.4 swipes, 1.2 swats, and 1.9 triples. That kind of line helped him finish the season as a valuable contributor in 9-cat formats. That kind of line, however, isn’t well suited for a points league. He’s valued way too highly in the sixth round.
Montrezl Harrell (WAS) 69.2
Trez can provide some valuable numbers off the bench, but he’s not an elite rebounder, shot-blocker, or scorer. He doesn’t need to be selected in 12-man leagues until four or five rounds later.
Lauri Markkanen (CLE) 78.5
Markkanen should see plenty of run with the Cavs this season, but this is a loaded frontcourt featuring Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. Taking a swing on him after pick 100 is totally fine, but paying a premium in the seventh round is a disastrous move.
Hassan Whiteside (UTH) 96.5
Whiteside is an extremely efficient player who doesn’t need many minutes to pile up stats quickly. In just over 15 minutes per contest a season ago, Whiteside averaged 8.1 points, 6.0 boards, and 1.3 swats. Similar numbers can be expected this season, as 15 minutes seems reasonable playing behind Rudy Gobert.
LaMarcus Aldridge (BKN) 100.6
Fortunately, LA is back in the NBA after a health scare caused him to retire a season ago. While NBA fans are surely pleased to see him back on the court, fantasy managers should ignore him. There’s no telling how much he’ll play this season while sharing the frontcourt with Blake Griffin, Nicolas Claxton, and Paul Millsap.
Brandon Clarke (MEM) 110.3
After a promising rookie campaign, Clarke regressed in Year 2 with just a 10/5 line and 1.9 stocks. There doesn’t seem to be light at the end of the tunnel, as Jaren Jackson is expected to be fully healthy and take on a big frontcourt workload.
Ricky Rubio (CLE) 111.1
Rubio had an efficient preseason and comes with name recognition, so maybe that’s why his ADP is so inflated? His best season came in 2016-17 where he went 11/9/4 with 1.7 swipes, but that was five seasons ago and happened while Rubio was logging over 32 minutes a night. His role off the bench in Cleveland figures to be much less productive as he plays behind Darius Garland and Collin Sexton.
Others: Kawhi Leonard (21.0), Kyrie Irving (23.7), Zion Williamson (29.0), Jamal Murray (49.2), Klay Thompson (93.1), Kevin Love (104.5), John Wall (107.3), Steven Adams (109.5), Rui Hachimura (128.8), James Wiseman (134.7), Kevin Huerter (143.2), DeAndre Jordan (145.6)
Sleeper cracked the fantasy basketball code, if you play fantasy football, if you prefer building out a weekly strategy versus daily busy work, you’re going to LOVE Game Pick. Download the Sleeper app today and start a Game Pick league of your own.