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Bogman’s 2022 NFL Mock Draft 1.0

by Scott Bogman | @BogmanSports | Featured Writer
Jan 20, 2022
Kenny Pickett

Mock draft season is here! This mock is based on what I would do for every pick in the first round. I considered the current roster build, who each team will lose in free agency, how much cap space each team has, how many picks each team currently has, and of course, the team’s weaknesses from the 2021 season. We only know the current draft order up to 24 as eight teams are still alive in the playoffs, so the last eight picks were done by record.

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1. Jacksonville Jaguars – OT, Evan Neal, Alabama
When a franchise finishes bad enough to get the #1 overall pick, they either need to take a franchise QB (last year) or BPA (best player available). We might better understand which way they’ll lean between the offensive or defensive line once a new Head Coach is named, but I would get an OT to protect my franchise QB. Starting LT Cam Robinson is a UFA, and Evan Neal can step right into his starting spot protecting Trevor Lawrence‘s blindside and paving the path for the run game.

2. Detroit Lions – EDGE, Aidan Hutchinson, Michigan
Dan Campbell had the Lions push back as hard as they possibly could this year, but the result is one all too familiar for Lions fans. Jared Goff is clearly not the answer at QB, but this class doesn’t seem to have a day-one, franchise-changing QB, so the Lions will need to go BPA. The names returning in Trey Flowers and Romeo Okwara are good, but in 2021 the Lions were 3rd from the bottom in sacks, 7th in pressure percentage, and had the most missed tackles. Hutchinson or Thibodeaux are the best options, but Hutch is the hometown boy coming from Michigan and gets the nod.

3. Houston Texans – EDGE, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Oregon
The Texans are another team that has set themselves up to draft one of the best players in the draft, and Thibodeaux is in the mix to be the 1st player off the board. He started the year as the #1 ranked prospect. Hutchinson might have moved above Thibodeaux on a lot of big boards, but make no mistake, he is still a stud. The Texans need a lot of help on both sides of the ball, but they gave up the 2nd most rushing yards and had the 3rd fewest QB knockdowns in 2021. Thibodeaux will help them get better both against the pass and run.

4, New York Jets – CB, Derek Stingley, LSU
The Jets have one of the worst rosters in the league and can go absolutely anywhere with this pick. The Ravens and Seahawks are the only two teams to give up more passing yards than the Jets, and Stingley is a lockdown corner. The AFC has some killer WRs. If the Jets are ever going to contend, they’ll need a corner to cover half the field.

5. New York Giants – QB, Matt Corral, Ole Miss
We will be getting a new coaching staff in New York, and with that will come a much-needed shift in culture. Matt Corral will bring a culture shift as a leader for sure, as he is the complete opposite in demeanor of Daniel Jones. Corral isn’t a lock to be the 1st QB off the board, but he will go in the 1st. The new staff in New York will have no allegiance to Daniel Jones. Baker Mayfield may not be the long-term answer in Cleveland, but he sure helped change the culture within the locker room. Corral can do that for the Giants.

6. Carolina Panthers – QB, Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh
Well, the Sam Darnold trade didn’t seem to work for Carolina, so it’s most likely going to be back to the drawing board. I can’t see the Panthers considering Darnold as the long-term QB when they benched him, brought in Cam, went back to Darnold after Cam was unsuccessful, and even let both split time with P.J. Walker. Pickett is a lot like Corral in attitude and being a hard-nosed, gritty type of QB. Pickett would walk into many offensive weapons with D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, Christian McCaffrey, and a solid defense to help ease his transition to the NFL.

7, New York Giants (from Chicago) – OL (IOL), Ikem Okwonu, NC State
I’m listing Okwonu as an Offensive Lineman in this scenario of being drafted to the Giants. Okwonu has started at LT for NC State for three years but has played a lot of guard too and will be able to move without any issue. The Giants have all three starting interior offensive linemen (Skura LG, Price C, Hernandez RG) entering free agency. The Giants need help on both sides, so this pick can go a lot of ways. But being 2nd to last in total yards, passing yards, yards per play, and bottom 10 in rushing yards has to be the main focus for the new coaching staff.

8. Atlanta Falcons – S, Kyle Hamilton, Notre Dame
The Falcons really need a pass rusher, but Kyle Hamilton is the #1 player on some boards and top 3-5 on most. Having him slip this far might be a little unrealistic. The Falcons have both starting safeties entering free agency, and the roster is at the point where they need to take BPA regardless of position. They put themselves in a good position by getting a 2nd round pick for Julio from Tennessee. Hamilton is listed as a safety, but he will be a defensive weapon in the mold of Jamal Adams, Derwin James, and Tyrann Mathieu as he will lineup where he is needed on any play. Hamilton’s football IQ might be his best asset even though he is an excellent tackler, can cover one-on-one, and has incredible speed.

9, Denver Broncos – EDGE, George Karlaftis, Purdue
The Broncos traded away Von Miller, and the pass rush took a hit. This may be correlation rather than causation, but either way, the pass rush needs to improve as the Broncos finished middle of the pack in sacks, bottom 10 in QB knockdowns, and only had one EDGE rusher rated in the top 40 (the other three graded 90 or below) in PFF rating. The secondary is already top-notch, and if they can add a better pass rusher, it can become elite. This could be a QB, but the Broncos would have to fall in love with Sam Howell or Desmond Ridder. There are also rumors that Green Bay OC Nathaniel Hackett will get the HC job and bring Aaron Rodgers to Denver.

10. New York Jets (from Seattle) – C, Tyler Linderbaum, Iowa
Linderbaum feels like the safest pick in this draft right now. Linderbaum can drop in and be the starting center for the Jets for a very long time. Connor McGovern was a very good starting center for the Jets last year, but he has enough versatility to move to guard. This line goes from good to one of the better ones in the league with three 1st round picks spent in the last three drafts (Becton 2020, Vera Tucker 2021). Zach Wilson had an incredible line at BYU, and this will help the run game as well. Also, the Jets have two 2nd rounders to get a playmaker and help the defense.

11, Washington Football Team – OT, Charles Cross, Mississippi State
This is another spot that could be a QB if they fall in love with one of Ridder or Howell. For now, we’ll give them a much-needed offensive lineman. Charles Leno re-signed but RG Brandon Scherff is a UFA. Washington could kick Cosmi inside to RG and have Cross play RT in this scenario if Scherff doesn’t return. Cross is known as a better pass protector, which will help Taylor Heinicke (if he remains the starter) as he was one of the slowest starting QBs in terms of getting the ball out. Washington needs help in the secondary and to add a playmaker to pair with Terry McLaurin. This one can go a lot of different ways.

12. Minnesota Vikings – CB, Ahmad Gardner, Cincinnati
This is one of the easier picks in this mock as the Vikings’ biggest need is clearly CB. The Vikings gave up the 5th most passing yards in the NFL last season, and their top 2 CBs (Peterson, Alexander) are free agents. Cornerback is an easy selection for them. The bigger question is which one. I’ll go with Garnder as he has the size at 6’2″ and ball skills to take on the opposing #1 WR. The Vikings’ roster is pretty solid, but as of now, they would be starting the year over the cap. Most of the building will have to come through the draft this offseason.

13. Cleveland Browns – WR, Drake London, USC
The biggest question for Cleveland entering 2022 will be ‘is Baker Mayfield our guy?’ I feel the only way to answer that is to give him some legit weapons. Adding an enormous playmaker in Drake London should help him reach his top-end potential. OBJ didn’t work, Landry was hurt, and Baker was playing at far less than 100% at the end of the season. Drake London brings amazing ball skills to the NFL and will make Baker look good by hauling in those 50/50 balls.

14. Baltimore Ravens – IDL, DeMarvin Leal, Texas A&M
The Ravens are a much better team than they played in 2021 primarily due to their massive injuries. The statistical need seems like they will want to take a CB, but they are also losing Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams to free agency. Leal can play in the middle or on the end and has been compared to Chris Jones. Free agency will surely impact this selection, but Leal is a great pick regardless of need.

15. Philadelphia Eagles (from Miami) – WR, Jameson Williams, Alabama
This is the first of three first-round selections for the Eagles, and they need weapons badly! The picks of Reagor and Arcega-Whiteside have proven to be pretty worthless. Jameson Williams is an explosive WR that made routine big plays for Alabama. Yes, he is coming off a torn ACL in the National Championship, but this pick will make the Eagles a track team in the same mold as the Chiefs or Ravens. The Eagles averaged just over 200 yards passing per game which put them 25th in the league.

16. Philadelphia Eagles (from Indianapolis) – EDGE, David Ojabo
The Eagles are up again, and it’s time to add to the defense. The Eagles were missing Brandon Graham for most of the season, and without him, they managed to put up the 2nd fewest sacks in the NFL. David Ojabo can walk in and be a Day 1 pass-rush specialist for this defense. Derek Barnett and Ryan Kerrigan are most likely gone in free agency, so this position will have to be addressed. It will probably come through the draft as the Eagles don’t have a ton of cap space.

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17. Los Angeles Chargers – LB, Nakobe Dean, Georgia
The Chargers are one of the harder teams to mock right now as they have the 2nd most cap space, so a lot of holes can be filled through free agency. I’ll give them Dean as they have had issues at the LB position recently. The Chargers drafted Kenneth Murray 23rd overall in the 2020 draft to fix this, but he quickly fell out of favor with the coaching staff and was relegated to the bench. Kyzir White led the Chargers in LB snaps by a wide margin and is a UFA, and Drue Tranquil has had injury issues in the past. Dean was the leader of one of the most prolific defenses in College Football history and will be a plug-and-play starter from Day 1.

18. New Orleans Saints – WR, Jahan Dotson, Penn State
The Saints HAVE to get playmakers to add to this team! Dotson pops on film. He’s constantly open and has great burst, and had one of the best one-handed catches I’ve ever seen. The Saints’ offense should improve regardless of this pick, as they will get Jameis Winston and Michael Thomas back which will take pressure off Alvin Kamara and open up some lanes for him. Should the Saints add Dotson or another WR, this offense can go from a hindrance to an actual weapon!

19. Philadelphia Eagles – CB, Andrew Booth, Clemson
The 3rd pick for the Eagles in the first round! We drafted for needs with the first two picks, and this one can go in a lot of different ways. I feel like Booth will be one of the best players on the board, and the Eagles need to replace Steven Nelson, who had the most defensive snaps on the team in 2021. Booth can plug in opposite of Darius Slay on the outside with Avonte Maddox manning the slot and the secondary can continue to compete with the great WR cores in the NFC.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers – OT, Trevor Penning, Northern Iowa
The Steelers need a lot of help. The offensive line was a mess in 2021. They gave up the most rushing yards in the NFL, and the QB of 18 years, Ben Roethlisberger, is likely out the door. First things first, build the lines and then fill in everything else. Penning can drop in and be a starting LT for this team for a long time! Improving the O-line will help keep whoever is taking snaps upright and improve the lanes for Najee Harris, who the Steelers spent a first-rounder on last season.

21. New England Patriots – WR, Treylon Burks, Arkansas
I know this isn’t what the Patriots usually do, but they got absolutely blown out in the playoffs against Buffalo. While improving the secondary will be on the agenda, I feel like WR can provide the biggest immediate impact. Treylon Burks is a massive WR at 6’3″ who will win the contested catch and has enough burst to run away from defenders with the ball in his hand. The Patriots need to get Mac Jones some weapons. This is an outstanding addition to this offense.

22. Las Vegas Raiders – IOL, Kenyon Green, Texas A&M
The Raiders are another unpredictable team as they’ll have a new GM, probably a new Head Coach, and around $40 million in cap space. The line last year was rough, particularly on the right side, where Leatherwood (RG) and Parker (RT) graded terribly. The Raiders gave up 40 sacks (tied for 22nd) and had the 4th fewest rushing yards, so an offensive lineman can help immediately improve those areas.

23. Arizona Cardinals – WR, Chris Olave, Ohio State
There are other needs that the Cardinals will have, but this is Kliff Kingsbury’s team, and they will want to keep their foot on the gas on offense. Olave can drop in opposite of a healthy DeAndre Hopkins and start his rookie year getting one-on-one coverage and earning the trust of QB Kyler Murray. This pick will also offer insurance should Hopkins start to break down. He only played 10 games in 2021 after playing at least 15 in each of his other eight seasons.

24. Dallas Cowboys – LB, Devin Lloyd, Utah
The Cowboys did just spend a 1st round pick on Micah Parsons, who will be named the Defensive Rookie of the Year, but they also lose Leighton Vander Esch and Keanu Neal, who both played over 50% of defensive snaps in 2021. The Cowboys are also in a bit of a precarious position with the cap, currently sitting at $23 million over. The offensive line will probably be due for an upgrade, but I feel like the remaining linemen on the board are more likely to play tackle. The Cowboys are most likely looking more for a guard. Lloyd can slide in next to Parsons and help anchor the middle of this defense for a long time.

25, Cincinnati Bengals – OT, Nicholas Petit-Frere, Ohio State
The offensive line probably isn’t as big of a need as we have made it out to be for Cincinnati as LT Jonah Williams took a big step forward, and the offense hummed quite nicely this season. The Bengals also have the 4th most cap space going into the offseason, so this might be addressed before the draft. The Bengals have starting LG Quinton Spain and RT Riley Reiff going into free agency, so Petit-Frere makes sense here. He can help turn a perceived weakness into a strength.

26. Miami Dolphins (from San Francisco) – WR, Garrett Wilson, Ohio State
The Dolphins have the most cap space (around $73 million) going into the offseason, so obviously a lot is going to change, but Garrett Wilson would be a great pick for them. Tua will get another shot with a new Head Coach, and I believe the plan should be getting him as many weapons as possible, just like he had at Alabama. Assuming they re-sign Mike Gesicki, Tua would now have Wilson, Jaylen Waddle, and DeVante Parker as his targets. If he can’t succeed with them, Miami will know it’s time to move on.

27. Buffalo Bills – CB, Roger McCreary, Auburn
The secondary is already great for the Bills, and adding McCreary will make it even better! The Bills will be losing Levi Wallace to free agency. He had the 2nd most snaps on defense for Buffalo and most likely won’t be a priority for a team that has very little cap room right now. McCreary will go through the rookie bumps, but he’s a bit of a gambler in the mold of Trevon Diggs and Marcus Peters and will try to make a play on the ball. Buffalo will probably have a decent amount of 4th quarter leads, so he might have some INT opportunities early if he lands in Buffalo or anywhere late in the 1st.

28. Tennessee Titans – EDGE, Drake Jackson, USC
The Titans will most likely need to replace a couple of spots through the draft as they are fairly close to the cap already, and Harold Landry is going to be really tough to replace. Drake Jackson may not be able to come in and replace the 12 Sacks and 74 tackles, but he can be a day one pass rush specialist. Jackson has been described as a great pure athlete with good instincts who may lack effort on some plays, but Vrabel can coach that out of almost anyone. Jackson will probably be a big mover up or down boards depending on his combine and pro day measurables.

29, Detroit Lions (from LA Rams) – QB, Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati
The Lions can go anywhere with this pick, but I like a QB here to give the guy a year behind Goff and then start in 2023. The Lions won’t save any cap space by cutting Goff this year but will get back $20.6 million in 2023 and $26.6 mil in 2024. Goff will get another year to prove he’s the guy, and if he isn’t, the Lions will have Ridder waiting to go. The Lions have built this team from the inside out, prioritizing the offensive and defensive line, and have two great backs for the QB to rely on and a budding star in Amon-Ra St. Brown. The QB will most likely be the last spot for the Lions to fill in this rebuild, and Ridder has already led the first G5 team to a CFP appearance. Why not bring the Lions back to the playoffs?

30. Kansas City Chiefs – CB, Kaiir Elam, Florida
The Chiefs have some good corners going into free agency. While they have the money to re-sign them, the offensive line might be more of a priority. Elam has great length at 6’2″ and has faced some of the best WRs in College Football playing in the SEC. Elam’s weakness has been in run support. While that could be the reason he falls to this point, playing for the Chiefs will mean facing way more passes than runs late when teams are trying to play catchup. That is where Elam will shine.

31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – IDL, Jordan Davis, Georgia
The Bucs have a lot of free agents and a little bit of cap space, so replacing Suh, Gholston, and McClendon could be a draft priority. Jordan Davis is for sure a two-down player, which could make him slip this late in the draft, but he’s still a massive run-plugging tackle that can rotate in when needed. Davis is better as a run stopper than a pass rusher, but anytime he is on the field, he will command a double team. He can be used in rotation with Suh or in tandem.

32. Green Bay Packers – EDGE, Jermaine Johnson, Florida State
The Packers are going to need to adjust contracts and cut some guys because, as of right now, they are $42 mil over the cap. If Z’Darius Smith and Preston Smith are cut before June 1st, they will save $27 mil but will be left with only Rashan Gary, Jonathan Garvin, and Tipa Galeai on the roster. Jermaine Johnson has actually gotten a Preston Smith comparison by Joe Marino and can be a plug-and-play day one player for the Packers. I know the Packer fans will want a WR, but picking in this spot would mean they have won the Super Bowl, so I think they will be ok with another year of draft disappointment!

Final Position Count

  • QB – 3
  • RB – 0
  • TE – 0
  • WR – 6
  • OL – 7
  • EDGE – 6
  • IDL – 2
  • LB – 2
  • CB – 5
  • S – 1

There could easily be two more QBs in the first round here, but I feel like they would more than likely be drafted by teams trading back into the 1st round. There were no trades in this mock (I feel they are way more realistic after free agency). The combine might improve an RB or TE stock enough to jump them in the first round, but the talent pool plus the current drafting practices on RBs make that doubtful as of now.  

I hope you enjoyed this mock, this is a labor of love, and I definitely considered each pick carefully. Let me know if you think I made the right choice for your team and who you would like instead if you disagree!

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Scott Bogman is a featured writer for FantasyPros BettingPros. For more from Bogman, check out his archive and follow him @BogmanSports.

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