Summer officially begins on Tuesday. Cue the video montage of hard-working, sweaty ballplayers battling every day while “Takin’ Care of Business” plays in the background. We’re deep into the daily grind. The game is a marathon, as people say, which means we have to be prepared to send in the cavalry whenever our top pitchers go down with injuries. OR fantasy managers might just need MORE innings! You should remember to consider your maximum innings in your league if you haven’t been monitoring your progress. In my home league, we can throw 1,300 innings. I could aim for 650 innings by the halfway point, but it’s often a better idea to be a little ahead of that mark. Sometimes teams will add an innings-limit on certain pitchers.
So be very careful. You may need more than you realize. And you want to use your innings. That’s the best way to win. Because the show must go on. The white flag cannot be raised. Like time, the baseball season marches on.
As we dip our toes into the first summer pitching stream, I’ve got some suggestions. Here we go!
Remember that I’m only choosing pitchers rostered in less than 30% Yahoo leagues, and I must choose a pitcher every single day.
Monday, June 20
David Peterson (NYM) vs. MIA 13%
The former first-round pick in 2017 gets the Marlins to start the week, and I like the matchup for him. Many will avoid it. He struggled in his previous outing against Milwaukee. And yet, the xBA against his two most-utilized pitches (fastball and slider) sits at .237 and .188 respectively. Peterson is also a great groundball pitcher at a GB% of 52.7% on the year. Miami is tied for fifth place in the league in GB% as a team. Of course, groundballs don’t always mean success. In fact, it can mean to a lot of hits. That’s what hurt him against Milwaukee, a bit of bad luck with a 60% LOB%. Here’s something I like: He’s only given up three home runs in 40 innings this year. Now I’m not saying Miami is an easy-street matchup. They’re in the middle of the league in runs and home runs. But Peterson is pitching for the highest run-producing team and he might be solid enough in our streamer world to get a Win.
Other option: None
Tuesday, June 21
Rich Hill (BOS) vs. DET 16%
I’m going back to the well with Rich Hill here. He gave us a lackluster 5.2 innings of three-run ball against a lowly Oakland offense last week. This sounds bad, but it was almost a quality start. We simply have to play the odds. Boston has scored 309 runs by the time of this writing; Detroit has scored 169 runs. It must occur to the professional streamer that Rich Hill could limit the damage enough for Boston to take advantage and get a Win. He has a 4.01 FIP and his LOB% is 65.9%. The last time he had a strand rate like that was 2009. Hill’s underlying numbers all show that he’s pitching even better than he did last year when he accomplished a 3.86 ERA. The strikeouts aren’t as high, but he’s walking fewer hitters and inducing soft contact rate 5% higher than 2021. Let’s see if he can snag a victory.
Other options: Roansy Contreras (PIT) vs. CHC 36% or Marco Gonzales (SEA) at OAK 22%
Wednesday, June 22
Ross Stripling (TOR) at CHW 31%
This is not an ideal day to stream, so if you can avoid some of the under-owned pitchers on the waivers, please do so. However, since one of my rules is that I stream every single day, regardless of the matchups, here goes nothing. I’m going against the grain and choosing Ross Stripling. Let’s just look at Stripling’s numbers so far. In 46.2 IP, he’s managed a 3.28 ERA (2.99 FIP, 3.55 xFIP, and a 3.62 SIERA). Part of his success is tied to the 5.3% BB%. He hasn’t limited free passes this much since 2019, when he had a 3.47 ERA in 90.2 IP. More than this, he’s getting hitters to “top” the ball more often, leading to a significant uptick in groundballs this year. For example, last year hitters topped the ball at a rate of 26.2% and this led to a GB% of 35.5%. This year, hitters are topping the ball against him at a rate of 40.1%, and this has led to a GB% of 52.8%. What is the driving factor? Well, as with many pitchers, it’s a change in pitch selection. He’s throwing his offspeed pitches more and reducing his fastball usage. Consider that he threw his fastball 51% of the time last year, and now he’s throwing it 32% of the time. The GB% on that ONE pitch has gone from 28.4% to 42.4%. Similar groundball increases have occurred with the changeup, which he’s using nearly twice as much. Does this make him a perfect bet for Wednesday? No. But it makes him interesting as a pitcher who continues to work on his game to remain competitive on a competitive ball club.
Other option: Chad Kuhl (COL) at MIA 22%
Thursday, June 23
Braxton Garrett (MIA) vs. COL 1%
I guess there is a rebelliousness to my streaming choices this week. This may be necessary as it gets harder to find pitchers rostered in less than 30% of Yahoo leagues. You could go with Smeltzer (listed below) or you could have a little more fun with Miami’s 7th overall pick in the 2016 Amateur Draft. Braxton Garrett has five pitches, but he leans the most on his slider, fastball, and sinker. The CSW% on each of these three pitches in the first 9 innings pitched should be noted: slider (35.7%), fastball (38.9%), and sinker (28.6%). In nearly 26 innings in Triple-A this year, he had a 3.12 ERA, and even though he has a 4.00 ERA in the first few innings in Miami, he shut down Houston last time out and I’m willing to see if the 24-year-old can give us gold against Colorado.
Other option: Devin Smeltzer (MIN) vs. CLE 24%
Friday, June 24
Alex Cobb (SF) vs. CIN 35%
Similar to my continual willingness to roll Rich Hill out there against weaker teams, I will continue to roll Cobb out there to see if some positive regression comes his way. It has been well-documented in the fantasy baseball industry that he has been woefully unlucky this season. Yes, the most recent neck strain is one example of his bad luck. But the other example is the 5.73 ERA alongside the 2.63 FIP. Yes, that’s nearly a three-run difference. If you prefer to look at xFIP, that’s even lower. So yeah. The LOB% of 52.1% and the .402 BABIP leave us all looking at the 35% rostership in Yahoo leagues and wondering…maybe we can get a solid pitcher on the waivers. In fact, even if you’re not confident with Cobb, I would recommend picking him up to see if he becomes valuable in the long term.
Other option: Cole Irvin (OAK) at KC 15%ne 25
Saturday, June 25
Zach Eflin (PHI) at SD 31%
San Diego is 25th in runs scored at home. The Phillies are 3rd in runs scored away from home. It seems like a simple calculation to consider the pitching matchup for this excellent situation, which turns out to be pretty good. According to Eflin, he had a minor knee issue in his last outing, which turned out to be bruising. That’s all. So hopefully this will work itself out by the time we stream him in San Diego. His xERA (2.86) and FIP (3.69) show that he’s largely the same pitcher from the previous two seasons, and while that doesn’t mean he’s elite, it does mean that he can limit damage and give us a win. Let’s go for it.
Other option: Maybe Chris Archer (MIN) vs. COL 7%
Sunday, June 26
Brady Singer (KC) vs. OAK 24%
I’m going with Singer on Sunday. The gossip around Singer this season has been the refining of a third pitch (changeup) in the minor leagues. While we’ve seen a 6% uptick in the usage of his changeup, he still only uses it around 10% of the time. However, a “show-me” pitch is nothing to scoff at, particularly if a pitcher has command of his other offerings. One telling difference for Singer has been the reduction in walks. He has a 2.01 K/9 in 2022, but last year he had a 3.72 K/9. He’s getting the sinker and the slider in the zone more often. He’s also putting the changeup in the zone too (when he does finally toss it). His numbers aren’t great, with a 4.24 ERA, but this sits next to an xFIP of 3.12 and a SIERA of 3.22. Both of these are career-best marks, and it might be an indication that he can still show us more. He’s 25 years old and this is often an age when pitchers make a leap.
Other option: Dane Dunning (TEX) vs. WAS 13%
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