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One of the most important aspects of completing a successful fantasy football draft is knowing who to target. Sure, there could be ‘value’ that presents itself through the draft, but it’s important to know which players you should not only target as values but also those you need to circle on your cheat sheets and prepare to reach for if needed. So here are Pat Fitzmaurice’s top players to target in 2022 fantasy football drafts.
Pat Fitzmaurice’s Players to Target
We fantasy football enthusiasts are all pilot fish this time of year, trying to identify the big fish we want to swim with in the fall.
Based on our Expert Consensus Rankings, Dissenting Opinions Tool and consensus Average Draft Position, here are 14 players I’m targeting in 2022 drafts.
Joe Burrow (QB – CIN)
Yards per attempt (YPA) isn’t a perfect passing statistic, but it’s a good one. With starting QBs throwing so many passes throughout a season, YPA isn’t as volatile a stat as, say, TD passes. Burrow led the NFL with 8.9 yards per attempt last season. That’s a freakishly good number. Only two other quarterbacks (Jimmy Garoppolo and Matthew Stafford) finished the 2021 season with YPAs above 7.9. Aaron Rodgers‘ career YPA is 7.8. Tom Brady‘s is 7.5
I contend that Burrow’s obscene 2021 YPA is not a fluke but rather a symptom of greatness.
It doesn’t hurt that Burrow has arguably the league’s best WR tandem in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Rostering Burrow is a great way to leverage the extraordinary talents of those two receivers. There will be games where Chase goes off, and Higgins is relatively quiet. There will be games where Chase takes a backseat to Higgins. We’ll probably get one or two big games out of Tyler Boyd as well. Those are all going to be Joe Burrow games.
Oh, by the way, it’s possible we’ll see Burrow run more now that he’s more than a year removed from the ACL tear he sustained in November 2020. Burrow had more rushing yards and TD runs in 10 games in 2020 than in 16 games last year. He ran for 12 touchdowns in his final two college seasons at LSU. So a little more rushing goodness would just be gravy on the chicken-fried steak.
Trey Lance (QB – SF)
Jalen Hurts was one of my favorite targets in 2021 because his running ability was destined to make him a valuable fantasy asset. I like Hurts this year too, but he’s gotten more expensive, so I’m pivoting to this year’s model: Trey Lance.
A quarterback who piles up good rushing numbers is a fantasy football cheat code. (Rich Hribar calls them “Konami Code” QBs.) Lance is an electric runner who averaged 12 rushing attempts in his two starts for the 49ers last season.
Lance’s passing ability is the wild card, but the 49ers probably wouldn’t have traded away their first-round picks in 2022 and 2023 (plus a third-rounder in 2022) if they had serious doubts about Lance’s arm and his processing. But then, it helps that Lance will throw to Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle and will run Kyle Shanahan’s playbook.
The continued presence of Jimmy Garoppolo is keeping Lance’s cost down, but make no mistake: The 49ers are ready to turn the page. But, unfortunately, they haven’t been able to find a trading partner for Jimmy G. because he’s due to make $24 million-plus this year. But I’d like to thank my colleague Matthew Freedman for laying down this smokescreen:
(For the record, Freedman also likes Trey Lance.)
Daniel Jones (QB – NYG)
In Superflex leagues or in formats where it makes sense to draft a backup QB, Jones is an appealing off-brand option. But, unfortunately, the three-year veteran has become a fantasy football pariah, in part because this guy drafted him:
Jones was coached by Joe Judge, Jason Garrett and Freddie Kitchens last year. That’s not a recipe for success. He now comes under the tutelage of new Giants HC Brian Daboll, who turned Josh Allen from a scatter-armed project into the most fearsome offensive weapon in the league.
Jones is no Allen, of course. Allen has a cannon attached to his shoulder. Jones’ arm is more of a slingshot. But like Allen, Jones is a dangerous runner. He also has an interesting group of receivers in Kadarious Toney, Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton and Wan’Dale Robinson.
As Konami Code quarterbacks go, Jones is a cheap one, and the coaching change offers hope that he will take a significant step forward.
Cam Akers (RB – LAR)
In last season’s playoffs, Akers averaged 2.6 yards per carry and failed to score a touchdown in 75 touches.
What I do care about is that less than six months after Akers tore his Achilles, the Rams handed him the keys to the backfield for their most important games of the season. Rams head coach Sean McVay chose Akers as his lead back in elimination games over Sony Michel, who had played so well when both Akers and Darrell Henderson were out. That bodes well for Akers’ 2022 workload.
Akers will be more than a year removed from the Achilles injury by the time the new season begins. And with his three-down skill set, Akers has a chance to become the Rams’ new iteration of Todd Gurley (the good version). In Sean McVay’s five seasons as head coach, the Rams have finished in the top 10 in rushing yardage three times, and in the top 10 in rushing touchdowns four times.
Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)
A prospect who checks this many boxes shouldn’t be available in the fourth round. Hall has good size, he had a terrific three-year run at Iowa State, he put on a show at the combine with his freaky speed and athleticism, and he catches passes. Hall is at least as good a prospect as Najee Harris was and will have a better offensive line in front of him this year. It’s quite possible that a year from now, Hall will be a consensus first-round fantasy pick and we’ll be trying to remember why his ADP was so low in 2021.
A.J. Dillon (RB – GB)
With Davante Adams gone and a thin group of wide receivers remaining, expect the Packers to run the ball at a higher rate and expect Aaron Rodgers to target his RBs at a higher rate. With a much-improved defense, a strong offensive line, a future Hall of Famer at quarterback and a very manageable schedule, Green Bay should get a lot of run-friendly game scripts this season. As a result, the Packers could very well produce more RB fantasy points than any other team.
In the last eight regular-season games Dillon and Aaron Jones played together, Dillon averaged 13.8 carries; Jones averaged 10.3. Dillon also took over as the Packers’ goal-line back late in the season.
And despite rarely catching passes during his collegiate career at Boston College, Dillon has proven to be a capable receiver. He caught 34 of 37 targets last year, averaging 9.2 yards per catch.
I also like Jones this year, but I’d prefer to have the much less expensive Dillon.
Tony Pollard (RB – DAL)
We haven’t seen vintage Ezekiel Elliott since 2019. But, if you want to keep waiting, I’ll understand — peak Zeke was something to behold.
But I’m going to draft Tony Pollard instead.
Pollard rolled up 1,056 yards from scrimmage on 130 carries and 39 receptions last season. He was uber-efficient last season, averaging 5.5 yards per carry and 7.3 yards per target. Pollard has a career average of 5.1 yards per carry.
Perhaps outstanding efficiency numbers don’t mean as much for change-of-pace backs since they’re like relief pitchers who can keep pumping 98 mph fastballs because they only have to pitch an inning or two, while starters have to pace themselves. But, man, Pollard is a stick of dynamite.
Even if Elliott plays a full season, Pollard will have enough stand-alone value to provide a satisfying return on his modest price. But if Zeke gets hurt, Pollard instantly becomes one of the 10 most valuable RBs in fantasy.
Melvin Gordon (RB – DEN)
Javonte Williams is immensely talented and could lead the NFL in rushing one of these years. But it’s unlikely to happen with Melvin Gordon around, and Williams enthusiasts were horrified when the Broncos re-signed Gordon to a one-year deal in late April.
The thing is, Gordon is still good. The seven-year vet averaged more rushing yards per game and more yards per attempt than Williams last year and scored more touchdowns.
In fact, Gordon has scored double-digit touchdowns in five of the last six seasons, averaging 11.2 touchdowns a year over that span.
Maybe the division of labor will start to shift in Williams’ favor this year. Maybe it won’t. Regardless, the Denver offense should be more potent with Russell Wilson at quarterback, which should mean more touchdowns to be divided and more overall play volume.
Brandin Cooks (WR – HOU)
Perennially undervalued, Cooks has topped 1,000 yards in six of the last seven seasons. He had a career-high 90 catches last year, and he’s the undisputed No. 1 receiver for the Texans.
I get it: The Houston offense probably won’t be very good. But QB Davis Mills was surprisingly capable last year, and the value on Cooks is just too good to pass up.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR – KC)
In 2021, Ben Roethlisberger was dustier than the top of a grandfather clock in the foyer of a haunted house. And let’s face it: Big Ben was starting to get pretty dusty in 2020. Roethlisberger played only two games in 2019, forcing the Steelers to give Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges 14 starts.
Ever since Smith-Schuster exploded for 111 catches and 1,426 yards in 2018, he’s dealt with mediocre quarterbacking. He’s also dealt with injuries — a sprained knee in 2019 that cost him four games and a dislocated shoulder last year that cost him 12.
Quarterback play shouldn’t be an issue for JuJu this season now that he’s joined the Chiefs and will be paired with QB Patrick Mahomes. With Tyreek Hill traded from Kansas City to Miami in the offseason, Smith-Schuster is the favorite to lead the Chiefs’ receivers in targets.
Granted, we’ve only seen JuJu produce truly impressive numbers when he was playing with Antonio Brown (although his 97-831-7 performance in 2020 wasn’t bad). But it’s fair to say that Smith-Schuster was sailing into some pretty fierce headwinds the last three years. He’s still only 25, and I think there’s a good chance he has a big rebound season in 2022.
Elijah Moore (WR – NYJ)
Moore’s rookie season got off to a slow start, but then he caught fire. Over a five-game span from Week 9 to Week 13, Moore was the WR2 in PPR scoring, averaging 20.1 fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, he strained his quad in the last of those games and missed the rest of the season.
My colleague Matthew Freedman writes this about Moore:
“Elijah Moore balled out as a 20-year-old true junior in the SEC (86-1,193-8 receiving in eight games), he can line up across the formation, he has top-end speed (4.35-second 40-yard dash), and he flashed in his final six games as a rookie last year (34-459-5 receiving, 4-35-0 rushing).”
The Jets’ selection of WR Garrett Wilson with the 10th overall pick in this year’s draft has splashed some cold water on the Moore enthusiasm. Consider it a buying opportunity.
Kadarius Toney (WR – NYG)
Toney’s rookie season got off to a rough start when he sustained a hamstring injury that cost him much of training camp. He barely played in Weeks 1-2, then played a 66% snap share in Week 3 and caught two passes for 16 yards.
Then came the eruption: six catches for 78 yards against the Saints in Week 4 and 10 catches for 189 yards against the Cowboys in Week 5 (plus one carry for seven yards).
Toney played only six snaps in Week 6 before aggravating an ankle injury, and he was thwarted by a medley of ailments the rest of the season. That he dealt with so many minor injuries in a single season is concerning, but less concerning than if he were trying to come back from a torn ACL or some other major injury.
It’s also disconcerting that Toney was the subject of offseason trade rumors and that the Giants spent a second-round draft pick on a similar type of player, Wan’Dale Robinson.
These things would be more concerning if his ADP were WR24. However, Toney’s ADP at the last check was WR47. That’s a very reasonable cost for the chance to get a full season of this:
Albert Okwuegbunam (TE – DEN)
Albert O. has had two years to settle in as an NFL tight end. He began to show signs of life in 2021 with a 33-330-2 campaign in a Broncos offense plagued by subpar quarterbacking.
With Okwuegbunam entering his third season and Russell Wilson arriving in Denver, now is the time to get in on Albert O. at a reasonable price.
He’s 6-6, 250 pounds, and has a 100th percentile speed score. Albert O. posted an 86th percentile college dominator rating at the University of Missouri and had a 90th percentile breakout age. He just turned 24 and can be had in the double-digit rounds.
Adam Trautman (TE – NO)
In fantasy baseball, top prospects who struggle in their early exposure to MLB competition and become less expensive to fantasy managers, as a result, are called “post-hype sleepers.” Trautman profiles as a post-hype sleeper.
The development of NFL tight ends usually takes time. Don’t target rookie TEs. Target well-regarded TE prospects with a year or two of professional experience. A third-round draft pick in 2020, Trautman hasn’t been fantasy-relevant in his first two NFL seasons, but he was a small-school superstar at the University of Dayton, and he’ll be the No. 1 tight end in New Orleans this year.
Trautman’s ADP as of mid-June was TE29, No. 236 overall.
Pat Fitzmaurice’s 2022 Redraft Fantasy Football Rankings
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