The 2022 NFL regular season is finally upon us, and if we’re really being honest with one another, nobody has any clue what’s going to happen with this 13-game main slate on Sunday.
I mean, the experts told you to play Cam Akers (three carries and zero targets) while Darrell Henderson got 13 carries and five targets. Akers was on the field for just 12 snaps while Henderson played 55. Even Zack Moss, who was supposed to be buried behind Devin Singletary and James Cook, got six carries and six targets for the Bills.
It’s educated guesswork at this point. What we do know is there are two games with current Vegas totals over 50 points — mouth-watering matchups between the Chiefs and Cardinals and the Raiders and Chargers. Additionally, there are three more games with current totals of 46 or higher, so the opportunity for some fantasy fireworks surely exists in Week 1!
If you are looking for a data scientist to present hard-to-understand charts with little waves and fancy colors, you have come to the wrong spot. Most of this comes from my gut and watching and studying lots of football. The players below are the ones I’m considering for cash games on both the DraftKings and FanDuel main slates:
The 2022 NFL regular season is finally upon us, and if we’re really being honest with one another, nobody has any clue what’s going to happen with this 13-game main slate on Sunday.
I mean, the experts told you to play Cam Akers (three carries and zero targets) while Darrell Henderson got 13 carries and five targets. Akers was on the field for just 12 snaps while Henderson played 55. Even Zack Moss, who was supposed to be buried behind Devin Singletary and James Cook, got six carries and six targets for the Bills.
It’s educated guesswork at this point. What we do know is there are two games with current Vegas totals over 50 points — mouth-watering matchups between the Chiefs and Cardinals and the Raiders and Chargers. Additionally, there are three more games with current totals of 46 or higher, so the opportunity for some fantasy fireworks surely exists in Week 1!
If you are looking for a data scientist to present hard-to-understand charts with little waves and fancy colors, you have come to the wrong spot. Most of this comes from my gut and watching and studying lots of football. The players below are the ones I’m considering for cash games on both the DraftKings and FanDuel main slates:
Quarterbacks
DraftKings
Jalen Hurts (QB – Eagles): $6,000 at Lions
Hurts’ prowess as a runner gives him one of the safest weekly floors in the NFL. Last season, he rushed for 784 yards and 10 TDs. For perspective, that’s more rushing TDs than running backs Nick Chubb (8), Leonard Fournette (8), Najee Harris (7), and Dalvin Cook (6) had last season. Moreover, Hurts was awarded a shiny new off-season acquisition to throw to — super freak and touchdown creator A.J. Brown. With plenty of weapons surrounding him and playing in the game with the third-highest total on the slate (48.5), I love Hurts to smash this week. Last season, Detroit surrendered the 10th-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks per Pro Football Reference.
Derek Carr (QB – Raiders): $5,900 at Chargers
I know this isn’t BettingPros, but it seems like as good a time as any to tell you that I have a chunk of change on Carr to win the NFL MVP thanks to the addition of his best buddy and white-water rafting partner, Davante Adams. So it should come as no shock that I love Carr playing Week 1 as a 3-point underdog in the game with the 2nd-highest total on the slate (52), a historically positive trend for quarterbacks.
Other interesting plays: Kyler Murray ($7,200) in a likely shootout with the Chiefs and Trevor Lawrence ($5,600) against a Washington Football Team defense that gave up a league-high 23.1 DraftKings points per game to quarterbacks last season.
FanDuel
Jalen Hurts (QB – Eagles): $8,000 at Lions
He’s even more valuable on FanDuel, in my opinion. See above for reasons why.
Other interesting plays: Justin Herbert ($8,400) has the third-highest QB salary on the slate but he’s at home in a saliva-inducing game environment against the Raiders. Joe Flacco ($6,200) with a near minimum QB salary in a #RevengeGame against the Ravens.
Running Backs
DraftKings
Christian McCaffrey (RB – Panthers): $8,500 vs. Browns
In 2019, before the injury bug bit CMC, he was routinely priced between $10,000 and $10,500 on DK where the full point per reception format makes a healthy McCaffrey an other-worldly fantasy asset. Take the early season discount before you need to pay 10K again. Pro Football Focus currently has McCaffrey ranked as their highest projected RB in PPR formats.
Aaron Jones (RB – Packers): $6,700 at Vikings
On a post-Davante Packers team possibly missing Allen Lazard this week, there’s a very clear path for Jones to be Aaron Rodgers most targeted receiver against Minnesota. Jones had 52 catches on 62 targets last season, and I fully expect that number to increase in this version of the Green Bay offense. The target potential alone makes Jones playable at this salary, the rushing yards and potential rushing TD(s) are just gravy.
Other interesting plays: D’Andre Swift ($6,800) is getting tons of pre-season hype from dudes much smarter than me (see @EvanSilva), and he’s playing in a high total game with the ability to gain yards on the ground and thru the air. Najee Harris ($6,400) freaks me out a bit with the Lisfranc injury, but the potential volume at this price tag is worth monitoring. I am concerned that pre-season horse Jaylen Warren could allow Pittsburgh to lessen Najee’s load if they feel they need to. Dameon Pierce ($4,800) is a starting RB with volume potential priced under $5,000.
FanDuel
Travis Etienne Jr. (RB – Jaguars): $6,200 at Commanders
Risky for sure but at this price tag in a potential 3-down, work-horse role with a creative offensive coach who made the Philly-Philly famous and a 2nd year QB ready to take a big step forward, I’m willing to consider it.
Other interesting plays: Christian McCaffrey ($9,500) because he’s a freak when healthy, Saquon Barkley ($6,800) at an early season discount, and Dameon Pierce ($5,400), as previously mentioned, is a starting RB priced amongst back-ups and change of pace guys.
Wide Receivers
DraftKings
Justin Jefferson (WR – Vikings): $7,800 vs. Packers
Jefferson was targeted a whopping 167 times last season and caught 108 balls for 1,616 yards and 10 touchdowns. The transition from defensive-minded Mike Zimmer to offensively-inclined, former quarterback Kevin O’Connell at head coach can only mean good things for JJ this season. I’m expecting redonkulous numbers from him. In two games against the Packers last season, Jefferson was targeted 21 times and had 14 catches for 227 yards and 2 TDs.
Tee Higgins (WR – Bengals): $6,100 vs. Steelers
Higgins is priced too low for his opportunity — he was targeted just seven times less than teammate Ja’Marr Chase last season, and Chase is priced $1,000 higher this week. Playing at home against the Steelers last season, Higgins caught 6 balls for 114 yards and a touchdown.
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR – Colts): $5,500 at Texans
A free-square at receiver this week — Pittman is the unquestioned alpha-dog at WR in Indianapolis and has what should be an upgrade at QB throwing him the ball this season. Pittman was targeted 129 times last season, 16th-most in the NFL.
Other interesting plays: Both Romeo Doubs ($3,000) Wan’Dale Robinson ($3,000) are minimum priced with the potential to score double-digit fantasy points.
FanDuel
Brandin Cooks (WR – Texans): $6,600 vs. Colts
Cooks was targeted 36 times in the final four games last season by Davis Mills, and I expect Mills to look his way early and often in this one. The Texans are 7-point underdogs at home in a potential negative game script that would have the Texans chucking the rock.
Other interesting plays: Justin Jefferson ($8,100), Mike Williams ($6,600) with huge touchdown equity in a potential shootout, and Christian Kirk ($5,800) as the No. 1 receiver in Jacksonville.
Tight Ends
DraftKings
Travis Kelce (TE – Chiefs): $6,600
Playing in the highest total game of the slate (53.5) with Patrick Mahomes and no target competition from Tyfreak Hill, Kelce easily has the highest floor and ceiling amongst all tight ends this week.
Other interesting plays: Darren Waller ($5,400) at a discounted rate in a potential shootout, although the presence of Davante Adams and Hunter Renfrow means healthy competition for targets. Gerald Everett ($3,800) playing with Justin Herbert, and pre-season GOAT Isaiah Likely ($2,500) if you want to punt the position.
FanDuel
Kyle Pitts (TE – Falcons): $6,000 vs. Saints
If I’m spending any money on tight ends on FanDuel this week, it will be for Pitts, who is priced $2,000 less than Kelce and $1,900 less than Mark Andrews but has equal target opportunity. Pitts was targeted 110 times and had 1,026 yards as a rookie last season, so I’ll take the discounted rate on FD.
Other interesting plays: Dallas Goedert ($5,700) is priced too close to Pitts, in my opinion, but if you need those $ 300 savings, it’s available. Isaiah Likely ($4,100) is my preferred punt on FD as well.
Defense/Special Teams
DraftKings
Steelers DST: $2,400 at Bengals
Defense and special teams are the most volatile positions in fantasy, so I avoid paying up for DST as often as I can. The Steelers have the defensive player of the year TJ Watt, who combined with Cam Heyward for a league-high 33 sacks last season.
Other interesting plays: Commanders DST ($2,500) has an elite defensive line playing in the fifth-lowest totaled game of the slate.
FanDuel
Falcons DST: $3,600 vs. Saints
This one makes me throw up in my mouth a little bit, but the prospect of playing the turnover-prone sack-taker Jameis Winston at home makes Atlanta an intriguing option for me at this price. A pick-six would more than pay off their modest salary on FD.
Other interesting plays: Although the Raiders DST ($3,000) is playing in a likely shootout on the road with an offensively talented Chargers team, they’re the lowest-priced defense on the slate and have two upper-echelon pass rushers in Chandler Jones and Maxx Crosby. Early-season division games sometimes turn into ugly defensive slog fests.
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