Los Angeles Chargers vs. San Francisco 49ers

• SF -7, O/U 45.5
• Chargers vs. 49ers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Los Angeles continues to fly. They are third in neutral pace and tenth in passing rate when the score is tight.
• The 49ers continue to drag down the play volume every week (29th in neutral pace), but they are looking up with their passing volume (19th in neutral passing rate).

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert: Herbert is the QB11 in fantasy, with QB1 performances in half of his games. Herbert has been effective in the Chargers’ high-volume short passing offense. Herbert is 12th in PFF passing grade and 11th in adjusted completion rate, but he’s 39th in aDOT. He’s living on a massive amount of volume, ranking third in passing attempts responding with the fifth-most passing yards and ninth-most passing touchdowns. Herbert remains a low-end QB1 against a 49ers pass defense that’s been tough outside of being shredded by Patrick Mahomes. Since Week 4, if you exclude the Mahomes shellacking, the 49ers are ninth in passing yards per game, sixth in EPA per drop back, and fourth in explosive pass rate allowed.

Jimmy Garoppolo: Garoppolo is a QB2 that can sneak into the top 12 any week. Over his last four starts, he’s finished as the QB9 in three of them. Since Week 5, Garoppolo has been tenth in passing yards, sixth in passing touchdowns, fifth in yards per attempt, and tenth in big-time throw rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). Since Week 5, teams haven’t had to throw much because of their immense success in running the ball. Opposing passing offenses have the fourth-fewest passing yards per game. That doesn’t mean the Chargers have been a good pass defense. Over that span, they are 14th in pass defense DVOA, 17th in EPA per drop back, and 15th in explosive pass rate.

Running Backs

Austin Ekeler: Rock on Ekeler. He’s the RB1 in fantasy points per game, ranking 13th in opportunity share, first in weighted opportunity, and third in red zone touches. He’s averaged 19.8 touches and 101 total yards. Ekeler’s pass-game role has been crazy. He’s essentially the team’s WR1 with a 21.0% Target share while ranking first in receptions (60), first in receiving yards (381), and sixth in yards per route run among running backs. Ekeler is 18th in evaded tackles, 15th in breakaway run rate, and tenth in yards created per touch. Ekeler is a weekly RB1. The matchup is horrendous this week. The 49ers are fifth in rushing yards per game, 15th in EPA per rush, and fifth in explosive run rate allowed. They’ve allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to running backs this year, with only four touchdowns surrendered. They are also second in DVOA against receiving backs.

Christian McCaffrey: In his first full game with the 49ers, McCaffrey played 81% of the snaps with 26 touches, 149 total yards, and two touchdowns. Vintage McCaffrey is back in full force, and it’s so beautiful. McCaffrey is third in yards per route run, 20th in evaded tackles, and fifth in yards created per touch. He’s an elite RB1 weekly regardless of matchup, but he could post video game numbers again this week. Like playing Madden on easy mode numbers. The Chargers are 29th in rushing yards per game, 31st in EPA per rush, and 20th in explosive run rate allowed. I can’t wait to see the legendary stat line McCaffrey posts this week.

Wide Receivers

Josh Palmer: Last week, as the Chargers’ defacto WR1, Palmer saw ten targets with a 23.3% Target share and 39.8% air yard share to finish as the WR10 for the week. Palmer has six red zone targets this season, with three coming in his last three games played. Palmer is 77th in PFF receiving grade and 75th in yards per route run this season (minimum 15 targets). His big game could be the emergence of the second-year wideout or, more accurately, an indictment on the Atlanta secondary. Palmer will run about 69% of his routes against Charvarious Ward (57.9% catch rate, 105.6 passer rating) and Deommodore Lenoir (82.1% catch rate, 105.6 passer rating). Palmer is a low-end WR2/high-end WR3.

Keenan Allen: Allen has been ruled out. 

Mike Williams: Williams has been ruled out. 

Deebo Samuel: Samuel opened the week practicing in full (hamstring). With Garoppolo at the controls, Samuel has a 23% Target share, 22.2% endzone Target share (second on the team), and 19.9% air yard share. Samuel has returned to the low aDOT role of yesteryear with a 6.2 aDOT over this period. With Jimmy G delivering passes, Samuel is the WR22 in fantasy points per game, ranked 33rd in PFF receiving grade, and 30th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Samuel is a WR2 that will run about 62% of his routes against Asante Samuel Jr. (60.4% catch rate, 90.4 passer rating) and Michael Davis (60% catch rate, 87.8 passer rating).

Brandon Aiyuk: In Weeks 3-7 with Garoppolo under center and Samuel on the field, Aiyuk has had a 21.3% Target share and 26% air yard share. Aiyuk is tenth in PFF receiving grade and 26th in yards per route run this season as the WR23 in fantasy points per game. Aiyuk has eight red zone targets (24th) and ranks 16th in YAC. Aiyuk is a WR3 that will run about 73% of his routes against Samuel Jr. and Davis.

Tight Ends

Gerald Everett: Everett is the TE10 in fantasy with a 15.9% Target share (14th) and the fourth-most red zone targets among tight ends. He’s finished as a TE1 in 50% of his games this season. Everett is 15th in PFF receiving grade and 16th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Everett is a TE2 this week with a tough road ahead versus the 49ers. San Francisco is 12th in DVOA against tight ends, holding them to the third-fewest receiving yards and second-lowest yards per reception.

George Kittle: Kittle has come on strong lately, rising to TE6 in fantasy. He’s finished no lower than TE7 in his last three games played. Kittle has a 21.1% Target share (fifth) with five red zone targets (14th) and one deep target. He’s tenth in receiving yards and YAC. He has a shot at another big week against a Chargers defense that’s 20th in DVOA against tight ends with the fourth-highest yard per reception and ninth-most fantasy points allowed to inline tight ends (Kittle 54% inline).

SEA vs. TB | MIN vs. BUF | DET vs. CHI | DEN vs. TEN | JAC vs. KC | CLE vs. MIA | HOU vs. NYG | NO vs. PIT | IND vs. LV | DAL vs. GB | ARI vs. LAR | LAC vs. SF | WAS vs. PHI | ATL vs. CAR

Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles

• PHI -11.5, O/U 43.5
• Commanders vs. Eagles Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Eagles are 18th in neural pace with the second-highest no-huddle rate behind only Arizona. Philly remains fifth in neutral rushing rate.
• The Commanders are a vanilla offense sitting at 24th in neutral pace and 12th in neutral rushing rate. There’s nothing to see here as they attempt to cover up Taylor Heinicke.

Quarterbacks

Taylor Heinicke: Heinicke is a low-end QB2 this week. While he’s finished as the QB13, QB8, and QB15 in his last three games, he hasn’t faced any pass defense compared to the Eagles. Philadelphia has allowed the eighth-lowest passing touchdown rate and second-lowest yards per attempt behind only the Denver Broncos. The Eagles have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.

Jalen Hurts: Hurts is a matchup-proof monster this year as the QB3 in fantasy. He’s finished outside the top 12 once this year, during a rain-soaked meeting with Jacksonville, where the Eagles opted to feed their ground game. Hurts is second in PFF passing grade, third in yards per attempt, and second in passer rating (minimum 50 dropbacks). He’s utilized play-action at the fifth-highest rate (36.6% of his dropbacks) with the most play-action passing touchdowns in the NFL (eight) and the fourth-most play-action passing yards. Washington is 12th in yards per attempt and third in passing touchdown rate allowed. Their struggles have extended to defending play-action passing. They have surrendered the seventh-highest play-action yards per attempt and tenth-highest play-action passer rating. Hurts SZN, and the Eagles’ undefeated season marches on.

Running Backs

Weeks 8-9

Antonio Gibson: Last week, Gibson’s snaps jumped to 58% with no J.D. McKissic in the lineup. Gibson handled 13 touches, churning out only 47 total yards. Since Week 7, Gibson has averaged 13.3 touches and 67 total yards with RB16, RB11, and RB28 finishes. Over this three-game stretch in a part-time role, Gibson has regained some of his explosive play-making ability, ranking 26th in yards after contact per attempt (minimum ten carries). McKissic’s availability will go a long way toward determining Gibson’s playing time. If active, Gibson likely returns to the 36-39% snap range he saw in Weeks 7-8. If not, he is probably a 50% plus snap share player. The Eagles’ run defense has become leaky, ranking 27th in rushing yards per game, 31st in EPA per rush, and 27th in explosive run rate since Week 5. Gibson is a low-end RB2 without McKissic, but he falls into the RB3 range if he’s active.

Brian Robinson: Since Week 7, Robinson has averaged 11.5 touches with 29 total yards. Since returning, he’s 59th in yards after contact per attempt and 57th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). Those are pedestrian numbers at best. With the team moving back to Gibson and Robinson having a minimal passing game and red zone role, he’s a touchdown-dependent or bust RB4.

Miles Sanders: Sanders is the RB18 in fantasy points per game, averaging 17.8 touches and 87.3 total yards. With just a 5.7% Target share, Sanders’ value is in the early downs. He’s 19th in evaded tackles, 21st in breakaway runs, and 26th in yards per touch. Sanders is seventh in red zone touches and seventh in total touchdowns (six). Washington is a tough hike for running backs ranking 11th in rushing yards per game, second in EPA per rush, and third in explosive run rate allowed. The Commanders are eighth in adjusted line yards and fifth in second-level yards allowed.

Kenneth Gainwell: Gainwell remains a stash only. He hasn’t crossed the 30% snap mark since Week 1 averaging 4.5 touches and 18.9 total yards.

Wide Receivers

Terry McLaurin: With Heinicke under center, McLaurin has a 28.4% Target share averaging 80.7 receiving yards per game with 2.44 yards per route run. Since Week 7, he’s the WR21 in fantasy points per game. McLaurin is third among wide receivers in deep targets (17) with only six red zone targets. McLaurin is a WR3 this week, running about 76% of his routes against Darius Slay (45.9% catch rate, 36.2 passer rating) and James Bradberry (41.8% catch rate, 38.4 passer rating). Lower your Week 10 expectations against a secondary that’s allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to perimeter wide receivers.

Curtis Samuel: With Heinicke, Samuel has an 18.2% Target share and a 23.5% air yard share. Samuel has finished as the WR25, WR38, and WR14, with Heinicke tossing passes. In those three games, Samuel has only red zone target. Samuel is a WR4 facing a secondary that’s given up the 11th-fewest fantasy points to slot wide receivers. He’ll run about 68% of his routes against Avonte Maddox (81.5% catch rate, 89.4 passer rating).

A.J. Brown: Brown is the WR7 in fantasy with a 30.7% Target share (fifth-best) and 43% air-yard share (third). Brown is fourth in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). His arrival in Philly has been a match made in heaven. The Titans are likely regretting their decision to part with one of the game’s elite wide receivers. Tennessee’s loss has been the Eagles’ gain. Brown is a weekly WR1 that will run about 74% of his routes against Kendall Fuller (62.2% catch rate, 117.9 passer rating) and Benjamin St.-Juste (52.1% catch rate, 93.2 passer rating). Washington is 13th in fantasy points allowed to perimeter wide receivers.

DeVonta Smith: Smith has a 23.2% Target share and 25.5% of the team’s air yards as the WR31 in fantasy. Smith has hit a bit of a skid with back-to-back WR54 finishes. Smith only has four red zone targets this season, accounting for only two touchdowns. While he has the talent to erupt in any game, the lack of touchdowns has lowered his weekly floor. He’s 33rd in PFF receiving grade and 48th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Smith is a WR3 that will run about 78% of his routes against Fuller and St.-Juste.

Tight Ends

Logan Thomas: Thomas has drawn a total of three targets since his return in Week 8. Thomas has dissolved into a matchup-based streamer. The matchup doesn’t necessitate playing him this week, as Philly is ninth in DVOA against tight ends. The Eagles have given up the eighth-fewest receiving yards and 11th-lowest yards per reception.

Dallas Goedert: Goedert has a 21.5% Target share while ranking ninth in red zone targets as the TE3 in fantasy points per game. Goedert has firmly established himself as one of the game’s elite tight ends this season, ranking third in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Washington is a difficult secondary for tight ends to attack. They are fourth in DVOA, holding the position to the 12th-lowest catch rate and sixth-lowest yards per reception. Goedert has the volume and talent to overcome any difficult pass defense. He’s a weekly TE1.

SEA vs. TB | MIN vs. BUF | DET vs. CHI | DEN vs. TEN | JAC vs. KC | CLE vs. MIA | HOU vs. NYG | NO vs. PIT | IND vs. LV | DAL vs. GB | ARI vs. LAR | LAC vs. SF | WAS vs. PHI | ATL vs. CAR

Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers

• ATL -3, O/U 43.5
• Falcons vs. Panthers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The play volume will balance out here. Atlanta is 28th in neutral script pace, but Carolina is fourth in pace in close games.
• Each of these teams loves to run the ball. We know this. Atlanta is first in neutral rushing rate, while the Panthers are 14th.

Quarterbacks

Marcus Mariota: Mariota has continued his bounce-back play. Since Week 5, he’s 13th in PFF passing grade and 11th in yards per attempt as the QB8 in fantasy. Predictably Mariota’s rushing upside has also played a part in his fantasy success, as he’s seventh in rushing yards and fifth in rushing touchdowns (tied) among quarterbacks. Carolina has been a beatable pass defense surrendering the 11th-highest success rate per dropback and eighth-highest EPA per dropback. Mariota is a high-end QB2 that could flirt with top-12 status.

P.J. Walker: The matchup we know is good for Walker, but after his benching last week, he’s a scary fantasy play outside of 2QB or Superflex leagues. After a brief glimpse of improved play, Walker’s passing numbers have come crashing back to earth. Walker is 20th in PFF passing grade and yards per attempt while limping to 37th in adjusted completion rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). Atlanta remains a defense that can’t stop anyone. The Falcons have been torched, allowing the second-highest success rate per dropback, fifth-highest EPA per drop back, and the sixth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.

Running Backs

Week 9

Cordarrelle Patterson: Last week, Patterson returned to the lineup playing 39% of the snaps with 14 touches, 53 total yards, and two touchdowns. Patterson had another score that was called back due to a penalty. Patterson led the backfield in routes run and red zone opportunities. The Falcons could continue to split this backfield up three ways, but it’s also possible that Patterson returns to 59-65% snap share in Weeks 1-3 as soon as this week. Patterson is 41st in yards after contact per attempt, 25th in breakaway run rate, and 46th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 25 rushes). Patterson is an upside RB2 this week. Carolina has been gutted by opposing running backs. Since Week 5, they are 28th in rushing yards per game, 25th in EPA per rush, and 25th in explosive run rate.

Tyler Allgeier: Last week, Allgeier returned to his pre-Patterson injury workload playing 38% of the snaps while turning his 11 touches into 123 total yards. He nearly equaled Patterson in routes but lost the red zone workload battle to Patterson and Caleb Huntley. With only six targets all season, his value is tied to the early down and red zone work. Allgeier is 26th in yards after contact per attempt and 40th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 25 carries). With a plus rushing matchup incoming, Allgeier is a decent RB3 with a slight downgrade in PPR formats.

Week 7

Chuba Hubbard: It sounds like Hubbard could return this week. He’ll possibly return to the 1A role he served in this backfield in Week 7 before departing with an injury. Before leaving Week 7’s game, Hubbard had out snapped Foreman 22 to 14. He still finished with a higher route run rate despite the missed time. Hubbard should split the early down work with Foreman and own the majority of the passing down work. Take this with a grain of salt considering the small sample (15 carries), but Hubbard has been efficient with his work in 2022. He’s ranked second in yards after contact per attempt and third in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). The Falcons can be run on as Foreman demonstrated in their last meeting. Atlanta done a good job of limiting big plays ranking seventh in explosive run rate allowed, but any ground game that is willing to feed their guys volume can move the ball. Atlanta is also 26th in EPA per rush, 29th in adjusted line yards, and 17th in second-level yards. The Falcons are seventh in rushing touchdowns and 11th in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs. Hubbard is a low-end RB2/high-end RB3.

D’Onta Foreman: Foreman is gamescript sensitive, as we saw last week with the Panthers getting truck sticked by the Bengals. In Week 7, Foreman played 54% of snaps with 17 touches and 145 total yards. There’s noise there with Hubbard leaving the game, but projecting Foreman for 40-45% of the snaps this week with 12-15 touches isn’t outlandish. Foreman has been an effective rusher when called upon this year, ranking 29th in yards after contact per attempt, 24th in breakaway rate, and 38th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). Foreman is a touchdown-dependent RB3 that could easily finish inside the top-24 running backs this week if he scores and break at least one long run.

Wide Receivers

Drake London: Wash. Rinse. Repeat. It’s another week of me whining about London’s lack of volume. He’s still eighth in Target share (29.0%) and seventh in target per route run rate (31.5%). London has dipped to 32nd in yards per route run as his aDOT has dropped to 10.3 (68th). He still hasn’t surpassed 50 receiving yards since Week 3, which coincidentally was his last finish inside the top 36 wide receivers (WR31). London is 18th in red zone targets this season with only two touchdowns to show for it, so he’s a touchdown regression candidate. London will run about 83% of his routes against Donte Jackson (78% catch rate, 85.5 passer rating) and Jaycee Horn (50% catch rate, 37.9 passer rating). London is a WR4/5.

D.J. Moore: After rising from the grave in Weeks 7-8 as the WR9 and WR5 in fantasy, Moore was buried again last week. He finished with six targets but only converted them into two receptions and 24 receiving yards (WR51). Since Walker has taken the reigns, though, Moore is 24th in PFF receiving grade, 15th in yards per route run, and 14th in receiving yards (minimum 15 targets). Moore is tenth among wide receivers in deep targets and has seen three of his five red zone targets with Walker. He’ll run about 66% of his routes against Darren Hall (73.3% catch rate, 131.0 passer rating) and Cornell Armstrong (66.7% catch rate, 108.4 passer rating). Moore is a WR2.

Terrace Marshall vs Dynasty Ranks
(After Week 9)pic.twitter.com/yILjbhpcJz

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) November 6, 2022

Terrace Marshall: My truther heart is beating furiously these days. Marshall is flashing the promise that he displayed as a draft prospect. Since Week 7, he’s been a full-time player with a 20.9% Target share, 28% air yard share, and 45.5% of the end zone target volume. Over the last three games, he’s 21st in PFF receiving grade and 28th in yards per route run (minimum ten targets) as the WR31 in fantasy. Marshall will run about 92% of his routes against Hall and Armstrong as a WR3 this week.

Tight Ends

Kyle Pitts: After begging and pleading with the fantasy gods, Pitts has a pulse again in fantasy. Last week he led all tight ends and wide receivers in air yards, with Davante Adams finishing second (14 air yards away). Yes, Pitts only finished the week with 27 receiving yards, but his 30.4% Target share (seven targets) and downfield usage are fantastic. Since Week 6, Pitts is the TE9 in fantasy with a 30.3% Target share (first), 36.7% air yard share (first), 0.68 weighted opportunity (first), and 1.82 yards per route run (19th, minimum five targets). Pitts is a top-five tight end in Week 10. Carolina is 28th in DVOA against the position allowing the fourth-highest catch rate and 13th-most fantasy points to slot tight ends (Pitts 41.1% slot).

SEA vs. TB | MIN vs. BUF | DET vs. CHI | DEN vs. TEN | JAC vs. KC | CLE vs. MIA | HOU vs. NYG | NO vs. PIT | IND vs. LV | DAL vs. GB | ARI vs. LAR | LAC vs. SF | WAS vs. PHI | ATL vs. CAR