New Orleans Saints vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

• NO -1.5, O/U 40
• Saints vs. Steelers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Saints are slow (21st in neutral pace) and run-centric (eighth in neutral rushing rate).
• As bad as the Steelers have been, they are still tenth in neutral pace and 11th in neutral passing rate. The passing volume for Kenny Pickett is there, but he has to improve his level of play.

Quarterbacks

Andy Dalton: Since Week 5, the Steelers have been a quarterback’s dream. They are 31st in passing yards per game, 31st in EPA per drop back, and 32nd in explosive pass rate allowed. Even after Dalton’s dreadful performance last week, he’s fifth in PFF passing grade, 15th in yards per attempt, and 12th in adjusted completion rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). Dalton has only gone deep on 9.8% (25th) of his dropbacks, but we could see him uncork some deep balls this week. Pittsburgh is 12th in deep completion rate with the most deep passing touchdowns allowed.  This assumes his offensive line, which will be without center Erik McCoy and guard Andrus Peat, can keep him upright. Dalton is a QB2 with a quietly high ceiling.

Kenny Pickett: Pickett has been dreadful since assuming the steel curtain throne. Pickett is 33rd in PFF passing grade, 38th in big-time throw rate, and 41st in yards per attempt with a 2:8 passing touchdown to interception ratio. In his first five games of NFL action, he was fed to the wolves facing off against NYJ, BUF, TB, and PHI. The Saints aren’t pushovers, but they offer a little leeway to see what Pickett can do. Since Week 5, New Orleans is 14th in passing yards per game, 22nd in EPA per drop back, and 13th in explosive pass rate allowed. The biggest plus for Pickett is that he should enjoy some clean pockets, as the Saints are 28th in pressure rate. Pickett is a low-end QB2.

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara: Since Kamara’s return in Week 5, he’s been the RB5 in fantasy averaging 22.2 touches and 128.6 total yards. Kamara’s tackle-breaking ability has waned as he’s 31st in evaded tackles, 47th in juke rate, and 34th in breakaway run rate. He remains an elite receiver, with a 21.2% Target share (second) and 2.10 yards per route run (fourth). Over his last five games, he’s seen 7.6 targets per game (6.2 receptions, 60 receiving yards). Kamara will have to do damage through the air because he won’t find much success on the ground. Pittsburgh is sixth in rushing yards per game, 12th in EPA per rush, and 13th in explosive run rate allowed since Week 5. Pittsburgh is 14th in DVOA against receiving backs ranking 15th in yards per reception. Kamara is a low-end RB1.

Jaylen Warren expected to receive more touches https://t.co/x6q8EoAUCa via @Tan_Dursky #HereWeGo

— FantasyPros (@FantasyProsNFL) November 9, 2022

Najee Harris: Harris has been one of the bigger disappointments in fantasy this season. He’s the RB28 in fantasy points per game, averaging 16.5 touches and 59.1 total yards. He’s scored only three touchdowns (27th) this season and ranks 61st in fantasy points per opportunity. Apparently, fantasy managers aren’t the only ones less than impressed with Harris as news out of Pittsburgh suggests Jaylen Warren will get more work going forward. It’s not hard to see why the Steelers are looking for a jolt to their ground game. Harris is 55th in yards after contact per attempt and 41st in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries) with only three runs of 15-plus yards this season. Harris is a volatile RB3 moving forward, and the bottom could fall out any week if Warren continues to show out. The Saints are still an average to slightly above-average run defense. Since Week 5, they are 12th in rushing yards per game, 22nd in EPA per rush, and 15th in explosive run rate. Overall they are 16th in adjusted line yards and 24th in open field yards allowed.

Jaylen Warren: The headlines for Warren have all of my nerve endings tingling. Warren is a player that I’ve been enamored with since training camp and prospect season. With that said, we’re still in wait-in-see mode for him for fantasy purposes. Mike Tomlin’s press clippings won’t pay our fantasy league dues. I need to see him get more work in this backfield before I’m willing to consider him as anything more than a high-end stash. Warren has only two games all season where he’s played more than 30% of the snaps. Warren has averaged 5.1 touches and 30.1 total yards. Warren has looked explosive anytime he’s had opportunities ranking 22nd in yards after contact per attempt and eighth in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). Yes, 75% of his carries have come against light fronts (5.0 ypc), but that’s not much different than Harris (61%, 3.3 ypc). Warren has been much more effective in the same conditions and with his volume this season.

Wide Receivers

Chris Olave: Olave has hit the ground running in his rookie season with little hesitation in stepping up as the top receiver in the Saints passing attack. Olave is the WR16 in fantasy with a 27.0% Target share (15th) and 41.4% air yard share (fourth). He leads wide receivers in deep targets with 19 while also factoring into the red zone (nine red zone targets). Olave is seventh in PFF receiving grade and ninth in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). The Saints get clowned for their draft day trades, but so far, Olave has arguably been worth paying up “to get your guy” in the draft. In Week 8, the Steelers, who have utilized man coverage a fair amount this season, deployed their outside corners in man coverage on 58-61% of their snaps. While Olave has cut through zone coverage this season like butter, he’s been equally impressive against man. Olave is ninth in PFF receiving grade against man while also ranking 21st in yards per route run immediately ahead of Jaylen Waddle (minimum ten man coverage targets). Olave will run about 72% of his routes against Cameron Sutton (58.6% catch rate, 86.6 passer rating) and James Pierre (50% catch rate, 60.4 passer rating). Olave is a low-end WR1/high-end WR2.

Jarvis Landry: Landry practiced on a limited basis all week (ankle). He has been listed without an injury designation and is on track to return this week. Landry has only managed a 15.2% Target share this season and three deep targets in his limited duty. Landry should be heavily involved this week (80% slot) against a team that has allowed the most fantasy points to slot receivers. Landry will tangle with Arthur Maulet (78.3% catch rate, 118.8 passer rating) for most of the day. Landry is a WR3/4. 

Diontae Johnson: Since Pickett has been under center, Johnson has a 20.5% Target share, 33.3% end zone Target share, and 26.9% air yard share. All of those marks lead the Steelers’ wide receiver room. Sadly in that four-game stretch, Johnson has crossed 50 receiving yards only once and has one WR3 finish (WR36). His downfield usage (12 deep targets, 14th) and red zone usage (nine targets, 18th) have remained consistent, if not improved. Johnson has seen all of his red zone targets this season over the last four games. Johnson is a WR3 that will run about 52% of his routes against impressive rookie Alontae Taylor (33.3% catch rate, 45.0 passer rating).

George Pickens: With Pickett under center, Pickens has thrived. In Weeks 5-7 before getting shut down by the Eagles, Pickens had a 13.9% Target share and 18.6% air yard share with 1.44 yards per route run. In two of those three games, Pickens finished as a top-24 wide receiver (WR12, WR21). Pickens is eighth among wide receivers in deep targets. New Orleans is second in deep passing touchdowns allowed this season. Pickens will run about 52% of his routes against Paulson Adebo (76.9% catch rate, 143.2 passer rating). Pickens is headed for a big day as a WR3 with top-20 upside this week.

Tight Ends

Juwan Johnson: Johnson would have likely finished Week 9 with a quiet day if Marcus Peters didn’t give up on him. Johnson waltzed into the end zone after Peters and the rest of the secondary stopped running after they thought he stepped out of bounds. Johnson saw his route run rate climb last week to 85.3%, which is amazing. That said, in a tough matchup, Johnson is only a TE2 this week. Johnson has a 12% Target share this year with two top-ten scoring weeks on his resume. He’s 14th in red zone targets. The Steelers are among the league’s best at defending tight ends, ranking second in DVOA, holding tight ends to the seventh-lowest catch rate and one touchdown.

Pat Freiermuth: Freiermuth is the TE8 this season with a beautiful 18.7% Target share (ninth) and 18.9% air yard share (fifth). He’s 12th in receptions and seventh in receiving yards with eight deep targets (second-most). Freiermuth is a low-end TE1/high-end TE2 this week. Isaiah Likely found out last week that the Saints remain a brutal matchup for tight ends. They are first in DVOA with the lowest catch rate, ninth-lowest yards per reception, and only one receiving touchdown allowed. Likely’s score last week was the only one they’ve given up.

SEA vs. TB | MIN vs. BUF | DET vs. CHI | DEN vs. TEN | JAC vs. KC | CLE vs. MIA | HOU vs. NYG | NO vs. PIT | IND vs. LV | DAL vs. GB | ARI vs. LAR | LAC vs. SF | WAS vs. PHI | ATL vs. CAR

Indianapolis Colts vs. Las Vegas Raiders

• LVR -4.5, O/U 41
• Colts vs. Raiders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• With Sam Ehlinger under center, the Colts are operating at 30.3 seconds per snap with a 53.5% neutral rushing rate. Overall this season, that would place Indy 30th in neutral script pace with the fourth-highest neutral rushing rate.
• The Raiders have slowed to 15th in neutral pace despite maintaining a top-five neutral passing rate (fifth).

Quarterbacks

Sam Ehlinger: Ehlinger has displayed no reason to consider rostering him in fantasy. He’s 44th in PFF passing grade, 41st in yards per attempt, and the QB28 and QB26 in his two starts. With the shakeup at the top, this team and offense have dissolved into anarchy. Don’t play Ehlinger.

Derek Carr: Year one of the Josh McDaniels experience has been a huge letdown. The Raiders are 20th in points scored, and Carr has struggled all season. Carr is 21st in PFF passing grade, 21st in yards per attempt, and 31st in adjusted completion rate as the QB21 in fantasy. Carr has only one game with at least 20 fantasy points all year. Carr is a mid-QB2. The Colts have remained a run funnel since Week 4. Over their last six games, the Colts are 14th in pass defense DVOA, allowing the third-fewest passing yards per game, the seventh-lowest EPA per drop back, and the ninth-lowest explosive pass rate.

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor: Taylor has practiced in full in back-to-back days and doesn’t carry an injury designation into this game. Taylor has averaged 20..5 touches, and 88.8 total yards this season. With questionable play-callers at the controls, Taylor could be leaned on heavily this week. It’s difficult to fumble the concept of running the ball and playing defense as an unsexy way of gutting out a win in Jeff Saturday’s debut. Since Week 6, the Raiders defense has relented some, ranking 19th in rushing yards per game and 20th in explosive run rate allowed. Taylor could be the every-down bell cow with Nyheim Hines gone and Deon Jackson out. Taylor has three games with five or more targets this season. Those checkdowns will come in handy against a Raiders defense that’s 32nd in DVOA, allowing the fifth-most receptions and sixth-highest yards per reception to running backs. Taylor is an RB1.

Deon Jackson: Jackson has been ruled out.

Josh Jacobs: The Raiders should ride Jacobs this week. He’s the RB7 in fantasy averaging 20.4 touches and 114.4 total yards. Jacobs is fourth in snap share, second in opportunity share and ninth in weighted opportunities. He’s handled 19 red zone touches (17th). Jacobs has been a tackle-breaking behemoth, ranking second in juke rate, first in evaded tackles, and fourth in yards created per touch. Jacobs is an RB1. Since Week 4, the Colts are 20th in rushing yards per game and 17th in explosive run rate allowed. Indy is 22nd in open-field yards. Jacobs should also be able to maximize his 11.1% Target share (17th) this week against a defense that’s 22nd in DVOA against receiving backs giving up the tenth-highest yards per reception and seventh-most receptions.

Wide Receivers

Michael Pittman: The Colts’ clown circus operation has wrecked Pittman’s season. Over the last two weeks, Pittman has a 29.4% Target share (7.5 targets per game), resulting in 37.5 receiving yards per game and 1.14 yards per route run. This has led to WR33 and WR46 finishes. Pittman is a low-end WR3 until Ehlinger shows some level of competence. Pittman will run about 75% of his routes against Anthony Averett (85.7% catch rate, 142.6 passer rating) and Rock Ya-Sin (55.6% catch rate, 72.0 passer rating).

Parris Campbell: Campbell is unplayable with the Colts’ low-volume passing attack and the flimsy quarterback play of Ehlinger nerfing the offense. Over the last two games, Campbell has a 13.7% Target share (3.5 targets per game) and 29 receiving yards per game with 0.98 yards per route run. Campbell finished as the WR47 and WR61. Even in panic mode for a flex play, there are better options on the waiver wire.

Alec Pierce: If you’re out of reasonable options in Week 10 and you’re stuck debating Campbell or Pierce for a sweat-inducing start, Pierce is the play. With Ehlinger, Pierce has also managed a 13.7% Target share, but his aDOT is 15.3, and he’s seen 28.7% of the team’s air yards. Pierce has been the team’s deep threat leading the team with nine deep targets. You’re crossing your fingers, toes, and any other appendages in hopes he breaks loose for a deep touchdown. The Raiders are fifth in deep completion rate and 12th in deep passing yards allowed. Pierce is a WR5. He’ll run about 92% of his routes against Averett and Ya-Sin.

Davante Adams: Adams made his return to health known last week after battling the flu and getting shut down against New Orleans. Adams remains a top-shelf WR1 despite the ineptitude of Carr. Adams has a 31.4% Target share (fourth) and 38.3% air yard share (ninth), with 15 deep targets (fifth) and 13 red zone looks (third). Adams could get shadowed by Stephon Gilmore this week. Gilmore has shadowed three times this season following Terry McLaurin, Courtland Sutton, and Brandin Cooks on 57-84% of their routes, relinquishing four receptions (11 targets) and 32 scoreless receiving yards.

Hunter Renfrow: Renfrow has been placed on the IR.

Mack Hollins: Hollins is a WR5 with some spike week potential. Hollins is the WR46 in fantasy points per game with three top-30 fantasy weeks this season. He’s garnered a 15.9% Target share and 23.9% of the team’s air yards. Hollins is eighth in aDOT and 14th in deep targets as the Raiders’ downfield receiver. If Gilmore is locked on Adams, Hollins will spend most of the day guarded by Isaiah Rodgers (100% catch rate, 90.5 passer rating) and Brandon Facyson (80% catch rate, 105.0 passer rating).

Tight Ends

Foster Moreau: Moreau is a matchup-based streaming option this week. As the Raiders’ starter in Weeks 7-9, he drew a 19% Target share while running a route on 85% of dropbacks. He sadly hasn’t drawn much high-value usage this season with only two deep targets and one red zone look, but that could change this week against the Colts. Indy has been dreadful against tight ends for multiple seasons. This year they are 27th in DVOA with the fifth-highest catch rate, the tenth-most receiving yards, and the 12th-highest yards per reception allowed.

SEA vs. TB | MIN vs. BUF | DET vs. CHI | DEN vs. TEN | JAC vs. KC | CLE vs. MIA | HOU vs. NYG | NO vs. PIT | IND vs. LV | DAL vs. GB | ARI vs. LAR | LAC vs. SF | WAS vs. PHI | ATL vs. CAR

Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers

• DAL -4.5, O/U 44
• Cowboys vs. Packers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• With Dak Prescott back under center, Dallas has continued the Cooper Rush model operating at 28.7 seconds per snap with a 51.8% neutral passing rate. Those numbers would place Dallas 25th in neutral pace and passing rate for the season.
• Green Bay is known for moving at a snail’s pace (26th) in close games while maintaining a pass-heavy approach (ninth in neutral passing rate).

Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott: Prescott looked sharp in Week 8, finishing as the QB4 in fantasy with a sparkling 9.3 yards per attempt while completing 77.8% of his passes with a rushing score. In Weeks 7-8, Prescott ranked sixth in PFF passing grade, seventh in yards per attempt, and seventh in adjusted completion rate. The Packers have been an average pass defense, ranking 17th in yards per attempt and 12th in passing touchdown rate allowed. This week, look for Prescott to exploit Green Bay’s issues against play-action passing. Prescott has utilized play-action in his last two starts on 48.2% of his drop-backs. He ranks eighth in PFF play-action passing grade, ninth in yards per attempt, and seventh in play-action adjusted completion rate (minimum 25 dropbacks). Green Bay is tenth in play-action completion rate and fifth in play-action passer rating allowed. Prescott is a strong QB1.

Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers should make himself comfortable in the land of QB2s. This is his new area code, with only one top-12 fantasy performance all season. Rodgers is the QB22 in fantasy points per game and 25th in fantasy points per dropback. His metrics all scream that he hasn’t fallen off as a passer, but this offense around him looks broken. Rodgers is tenth in PFF passing grade and third in big-time throw rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). The Cowboys have given up the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Since Week 5, they are tenth in passing yards per game, fourth in EPA per drop back, and seventh in explosive pass rate allowed.

Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott: Elliott practiced on a limited basis all week. He’s been listed as questionable. Per the fermented brain of Jerry Jones, Elliott is expected to play. We’ll see, but we’ll approach it for the moment as if he will be active. Elliott has averaged 16.5 touches and 67.9 total yards this season as the RB26 in fantasy. With only a 3.9% Target share, Elliott has dissolved into an early down plodder. He’s 45th in juke rate, 33rd in evaded tackles, and 48th in breakaway run rate. The Packers’ run defense remains swiss cheese, ranking 25th in rushing yards per game, 27th in EPA per rush, and 26th in explosive run rate. Elliott is a touchdown-or-bust RB3 if active.

Tony Pollard: With Elliott active, Pollard has averaged 11.2 touches and 69.6 total yards with three weeks as an RB2 or better. Pollard remains one of the most efficient running backs in the NFL. He’s third in yards per touch, 15th in juke rate, eighth in yards per route run, and third in breakaway run rate. With Elliott in the lineup, Pollard has an 8.8% Target share running routes on 30.9% of dropbacks. Pollard is a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 with a high ceiling even on limited volume. 

Aaron Jones: Jones managed limited practices all week and doesn’t carry an injury designation into this game. Does that mean he’s 100%? No. Is it encouraging? Sure. Jones should be the lead back in this offense if health complies this week. In Weeks 7-8, playing full-time after retaking the lead role, Jones averaged 20.5 touches and 116.5 total yards. Jones is seventh in yards per touch, 13th in juke rate, eighth in evaded tackles, and 12th in breakaway run rate. He’s still insanely efficient and explosive this season. Jones encounters a Cowboy run defense that’s 20th in rushing yards per game and explosive run rate (since Week 5). What could hinder Jones this week is Dallas’ stingy nature with touchdowns. They have allowed the third-fewest rushing touchdowns to running backs this season. Jones is a top-15 running back.

A.J. Dillon: Dillon’s disappointing season rolls on. He’s the RB46 in fantasy points per game. In Weeks 7-8, he averaged 7.5 touches, 39 total yards, and 36% of the snaps played. Over the last five games, Dillon has had one touch in the red zone. He’s 17th in juke rate and 16th in evaded tackles, but he’s also 47th in yards per touch and breakaway run rate. Dillon is an RB3/4.

Wide Receivers

CeeDee Lamb: Lamb is a high-end WR2. He’s the WR16 in fantasy points per game, soaking up a whopping share of the Dallas passing offense. Lamb has a 31.6% Target share (third-best) and 39.0% air yard share (seventh). He’s 14th in deep targets (12), but the problem is the team has not gone to him inside the 20 (only four red zone targets). Lamb has performed extremely well this season, ranking 14th in PFF receiving grade and 11th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Lamb will run about 58% of his routes against Keisean Nixon (career: 78.0% catch rate, 116.0 passer rating). Lamb should eat him alive in the slot.

Michael Gallup: Gallup has yet to cross the 50-yard receiving threshold this season. His best weekly fantasy finish is WR48 in Week 8. He has struggled in his return from injury, with a 63.2 PFF receiving grade and 1.13 yards per route run. He’s only drawn four deep targets, and three red zone targets in his five games played, with a 17.7% Target share. Gallup is a WR5/6 that will run about 88% of his routes against Jaire Alexander (55.2% catch rate, 50.4 passer rating) and Rasul Douglas (67.6% catch rate, 82.6 passer rating).

Allen Lazard: In the six full games Lazard has played, he’s been Rodgers’ best friend. Lazard has commanded a 21% Target share with 38.9% of the team’s air yards and a 46.7% end zone Target share. He has averaged 62 receiving yards with 1.93 yards per route run. Lazard is the WR14 in fantasy points per game with the fifth-most deep targets and 11th-most red zone targets among wide receivers. Lazard will run about 58% of his routes against Trevon Diggs (62.2% catch rate, 79.8 passer rating) and Anthony Brown (61% catch rate, 95.1 passer rating) as a WR2.

Christian Watson did *not* get diagnosed with a concussion yesterday, LaFleur says. Keeping him out was precautionary after getting one vs. Buffalo. LaFleur said Watson took a hit to the chest and lost his breath. He cleared concussion protocol already.

— Matt Schneidman (@mattschneidman) November 7, 2022

Christian Watson: Watson has already cleared the concussion protocol and is practicing in full. Watson could be Lazard’s running mate this week as Romeo Doubs (ankle) and Sammy Watkins (knee) were both DNPs to open the week. Watson has been injured or limited for most of the season, running a total of 67 routes all year. He’s been utilized as a short area YAC specialist when active, with a 6.1 aDOT and 7.8 YAC per reception. Among wide receivers with at least 14 targets, he’s third in YAC per reception behind only Deebo Samuel and Rashod Bateman. Dallas is middle of the road, ranking 15th in YAC allowed and 18th in missed tackles. If Rodgers is looking to combat the Dallas pass rush, Watson and short-area targets could be a feasible avenue. He’ll run about 58% of his routes against Diggs and Brown. Watson is a dart throw flex.

Tight Ends

Dalton Schultz: Since Prescott’s return, Schultz has a 23.5% Target share (six targets per game), averaging 61.5 receiving yards per game. Over those last two games, he’s finished as the TE12 and TE5 in fantasy. The worry is that Schultz has managed a 53.6% route run rate over that span, which could allude to the fact that he’s still not 100% healthy. With only 15 routes per game over his last two games, he’s walking a dangerous tightrope with an unsustainable 40% target per route run rate. Schultz is a TE2 with obvious TE1 upside but also a dangerously low floor. The Packers have faced the fewest tight end targets in the NFL, allowing the second-fewest receptions and third-lowest yards per reception.

Robert Tonyan: Tonyan’s usage has been all over the map this season. Last week his route run rate dipped to 47.9% as he managed only a 9.8% Target share. Tonyan is a TE2 that’s not worth the headache this week. Dallas has stonewalled tight ends with the lowest yards per reception and only one touchdown this season.

SEA vs. TB | MIN vs. BUF | DET vs. CHI | DEN vs. TEN | JAC vs. KC | CLE vs. MIA | HOU vs. NYG | NO vs. PIT | IND vs. LV | DAL vs. GB | ARI vs. LAR | LAC vs. SF | WAS vs. PHI | ATL vs. CAR

Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams

• LAR -3, O/U 40
• Cardinals vs. Rams Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Arizona is second in neutral pace while keeping with their pass-happy ways (13th in neutral passing rate).
• The Rams have decided to play keep away (30th in neutral pace) while throwing when they have the ball (sixth in neutral passing rate). That’s out of necessity, as they can’t run the ball with any consistency or effectiveness.

Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray: After beginning the week with a DNP, Murray logged limited practices in back-to-back days to conclude the week and earn a questionable tag (hamstring). Since Hopkins’ return, Murray has been the QB5 in fantasy, ranking 19th in PFF passing grade, 27th in big-time throw rate, and 18th in yards per attempt (minimum 50 dropbacks). Since Week 5, the Rams have held quarterbacks to the eighth-fewest passing yards per game, ninth-lowest EPA per drop back, and fifth-lowest explosive pass rate. In his last three regular-season meetings with the Rams, Murray has finished as the QB9, QB13, and QB22. Murray is a low-end QB1 this week.

Matthew Stafford: Stafford is another 2022 addition to the broken veteran quarterback bin. He’s the QB26 in fantasy points per game with only one top-12 outing. That came in Week 2 against the Atlanta Falcons. He’s 26th in PFF passing grade, 23rd in yards per attempt, and 18th in adjusted completion rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). Since Week 4, the Cardinals have turned around their pass defense. Since then, they are tenth in pass defense DVOA, eighth in EPA per dropback, and 11th in explosive pass rate allowed. Stafford is in concussion protocol. He managed a limited practice on Friday and has been listed as questionable. If Stafford plays, he’s a low-end QB2. If he misses and John Wolford draws the start, this becomes an offense (Wolford included) to avoid outside of Kupp.

Running Backs

Week 9

James Conner: Conner returned to his lead-back role playing 71% of the snaps with 12 touches and 64 total yards. He handled most of the passing down work and saw the only running back red zone opportunity. Conner looked spry with the highest yards after contact per attempt (4.43) he’s managed in any game this season and two runs of 10-plus yards. Conner is an RB2 in a difficult matchup. Since Week 4, the Rams are fifth in rushing yards per game, fifth in EPA per rush, and sixth in explosive run rate allowed. Conner will have to get it done in the touchdown department and in the passing game to overcome what will likely be an inefficient outing. The Rams have surrendered the 12th-highest yards per reception and 12-most receptions to running backs. 

Week 9

Darrell Henderson: The Rams’ backfield is the stuff of nightmares. Last week Henderson played 49% of the snaps with 12 carries for 56 yards. Henderson has been a waste of volume every time he’s touched the ball this season, ranking outside the top 40 running backs in yards per touch, evaded tackles, and juke rate. The matchup is juicy against the Cardinals, who rank 28th in second-level yards and explosive run rate while allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. Malcolm Brown being ruled out narrows this backfield to Henderson and Akers, which theoretically helps Henderson. Henderson is a low-end flex or RB3.

Wide Receivers

DeAndre Hopkins: Hopkins has been on another level since his return. He’s garnered a 30.5% Target share (sixth) and 45.7% air yard share (first) with three deep targets and two red zone targets in only three games. He’s been a WR2 or better in every game (WR8, WR2, WR21). Hopkins is 27th in PFF receiving grade and eighth in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Hopkins is a WR1 that will run about 73% of his routes against Jalen Ramsey (68.4% catch rate, 104.6 passer rating) and Derion Kendrick (64.4% catch rate, 100.0 passer rating). The Rams have allowed the second-most fantasy points to perimeter wide receivers this season, behind only the Atlanta Falcons.

Rondale Moore: Moore is the WR36 in fantasy points per game with WR2 or better finishes in half of his games played (WR24, WR6, WR16). Moore has a 20.5% Target share and six red zone targets (one in each game). Moore is a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 that will run about 58% of his routes from the slot against Troy Hill (61% catch rate, 93.5 passer rating). Los Angeles has allowed the 11th-most YAC this season. Moore is third in YAC per reception (minimum 15 targets).

Robbie Anderson: Anderson assumed a full-time role in the offense last week, running 38 routes but drawing only three targets. Until Anderson gives me a reason to believe otherwise, he’s dust and unplayable. Anderson has 0.89 yards per route run this season which is the second-lowest mark of his career, only rivaled by the 0.83 he posted in last year’s stinker season. Anderson playing a full-time role is only notable because it means more slot time for Moore.

Cooper Kupp: Kupp is the WR1 in fantasy points per game. He’s first in Target share, fourth in target per route run rate, and 12th in air yard share. He’s finished no lower than WR22 all season. The analysis here is simple. The corners don’t matter. Matchups don’t matter. I know I’m going deep here, but if Kupp is active, he’s in your lineup. Every. Week.

Allen Robinson: Robinson is a weak flex play or WR5 weekly. He’s finished as the WR41 or lower in every game this season except for two. The cliff comes for physical, contested catch receivers fast. It arrived last year for Robinson, but we wrote it off with positive training camp reviews and hope before the season. Robinson has a 14.7% Target share, and 0.84 yards per route run this season. Remove the name and just look at his production, and we wouldn’t even be considering playing him in any week. Robinson is a must-sit. He’s better off on the waiver wire than clogging a bench spot on your fantasy team.

Van Jefferson: Don’t play Jefferson. Across the two games he’s been active, he has run 39 routes drawing five targets and securing zero of them. It’s fair to wonder if Jefferson is fully healthy at this juncture. This offense is floundering. There are better matchup-based darts to throw than Jefferson.

Tight Ends

Zach Ertz: Since Hopkins’ return, Ertz has a 16.8% Target share averaging 31.7 receiving yards per game (0.87 yards per route run) with a 25% end zone Target share. With touchdowns (three red zone targets) in each of his last two games, he has finished as the TE22, TE5, and TE6 since Hopkins has been back. Ertz is a low-end touchdown or bust TE1. The Rams are 25th in DVOA against tight ends allowing the sixth-highest yards per reception.

Tyler Higbee: Outside of Kupp, Higbee has been the only source of fantasy goodness. Higbee is the TE13 in fantasy with a 20.4% Target share (sixth) and five red zone targets (14th). Higbee is 28th in PFF receiving grade and 18th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Arizona has been the fountain of never-ending fantasy points for tight ends. They are 30th in DVOA, allowing the most receptions, the second-highest catch rate, the most receiving yards, and the most receiving touchdowns to tight ends. Fire up Higbee as a high-ceiling TE1.

SEA vs. TB | MIN vs. BUF | DET vs. CHI | DEN vs. TEN | JAC vs. KC | CLE vs. MIA | HOU vs. NYG | NO vs. PIT | IND vs. LV | DAL vs. GB | ARI vs. LAR | LAC vs. SF | WAS vs. PHI | ATL vs. CAR