Denver Broncos vs. Tennessee Titans

• TEN -3, O/U 38.5
• Broncos vs. Titans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The pace of this game will be pulled down by the Titans (32nd in neutral pace) despite the Broncos pushing the play volume this season (ninth in neutral pace).
• Tennessee will go as far as Derrick Henry can take them, as they are third in neutral rushing rate. Denver will keep pace with a balanced approach (15th in neutral passing rate).

Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson: Since Week 4, Wilson has shown some life in fantasy circles as the QB15 in fantasy points per game. In his last four games, he’s still 26th in PFF passing grade but 12th in yards per attempt and 11th in big-time throw rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). The Titans are an easy secondary to shred, ranking seventh in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks, 12th in yards per attempt, and tenth in passing touchdown rate. The Titans are 11th in pressure rate, which could present a problem, but Wilson has been elite against pressure since Week 4. Over the last five weeks, he’s 11th in PFF pressured passing grade, fourth in pressure-adjusted completion rate, and first in pressured yards per attempt (minimum 25 pressured dropbacks). Wilson is a borderline QB1 this week.

Ryan Tannehill: Tannehill looks like he’ll make his return this week. He practiced in a limited fashion most of the week while sneaking in a full practice on Thursday. Tannehill is a low-end QB2 with one of the worst wide receiver rooms in the NFL, taking on a premier pass defense. Denver is top-five in passing yards per game, EPA per drop back, and explosive pass rate allowed. They have surrendered the fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.

Running Backs

Week 8

Latavius Murray: The Broncos backfield is a total mess to avoid this week if possible. Since joining the Denver dumpster fire, Murray has averaged 13.6 touches and 48.6 total yards. He’s scored two touchdowns with his four red zone touches over the last three games with three consecutive top-36 finishes (RB28, RB30, RB22). Murray has run like a 32-year-old back, ranking 66th in yards after contact per attempt and 50th in PFF’s elusive rating with zero breakaway runs (minimum 15 carries). Tennessee has been a nightmare matchup for backs all year. The Titans have given up the lowest rushing success rate in the NFL. They are second in rushing yards per game, third in EPA per rush, and 11th in explosive run rate. Murray is a touchdown-dependent RB4.

Melvin Gordon: Gordon’s role has fluctuated since Murray arrived from the bench to now passing down back. Since Week 6, Gordon has averaged 9.4 touches and 36.6 total yards. Over the last two games after returning to the lineup, he’s been the RB37 and RB19 in fantasy. Gordon runs like an aging back as well, ranking 55th in evaded tackles, 53rd in juke rate, and 55th in breakaway runs. He has been serviceable as a pass catcher ranking 19th in yards per route run with his 8.1% Target share (minimum 15 targets). Don’t expect Gordon to find any more success than Murray on the ground or through the air. Tennessee is third in DVOA against receiving backs with the second-lowest yards per reception allowed. Gordon is a low-end flex play that’s better left on the bench.

Derrick Henry: Quarterback issues? No problem. Age 28 season? Child, please. Henry is immune to everything as the RB2 in fantasy. He keeps motoring along, reeling off five straight 100-yard rushing performances averaging 24.7 touches and 126.3 total yards this season. Note to self: never bet against Derrick Henry again. He’s 11th in yards after contact per attempt, tied for second with Saquon Barkley with 12 15-plus yard runs, and ninth in evaded tackles. The Broncos are a team that Henry can stack another 100-yard day against. Denver is 21st in rushing yards per game, 20th in EPA per rush, and 18th in explosive run rate allowed. The Broncos are 31st in open-field yards. Another week of the King reigning supreme as a top-five running back option.

Wide Receivers

Courtland Sutton: Sutton has hit a dry patch. In Weeks 1-5, he was the apple of Wilson’s heart with a 28% Target share, ranking 38th in PFF receiving grade and 23rd in yards per route run (minimum ten targets). Since Week 6, his Target share has dipped to 16.7%, with his yards per route run cratering to 0.47 as he’s averaged 16.7 receiving yards per game. Sutton is still tenth in deep targets among wide receivers and 18th in red zone targets. He could receive shadow coverage from Kristian Fulton (53.7% catch rate, 83.4 passer rating), who has followed top receivers twice this season on 50-63% of their routes, limiting them to five targets, one reception, and 16 scoreless receiving yards. Sutton is a WR3.

Jerry Jeudy: Jeudy is the WR37 in fantasy, with three top-20 finishes in his last five games (WR20, WR16, WR13). Jeudy has a 20.8% Target share with 24.3% of the team’s air yards. He’s 33rd in yards per route run while also ranking tenth in deep targets and 29th in red zone targets. Jeudy will run about 70% of his routes against Roger McCreary (75% catch rate, 107.6 passer rating) in the slot as a WR2.

Robert Woods: Woods is a must-sit regardless of who is under center. Woods hasn’t finished higher than WR55 since Week 4. He’s surpassed 40 receiving yards only once this season. This week he faces a secondary that’s limited wide receivers to the fewest fantasy points per game in the NFL.

Tight Ends

Greg Dulcich: Since Dulcich graced the Broncos’ starting lineup in Week 6, he has finished as the TE11, TE7, and TE9 in weekly scoring. He has garnered a 17.7% Target share (11th-best) with a 75% route participation clip (11th-best). With only three games played, he is fifth in deep targets (five) at the position. Dulcich should be viewed as a weekly TE1 moving forward. This week he gets another plus matchup against a defense that’s allowed the fourth-most receiving yards and fifth-highest yards per reception to tight ends.

SEA vs. TB | MIN vs. BUF | DET vs. CHI | DEN vs. TEN | JAC vs. KC | CLE vs. MIA | HOU vs. NYG | NO vs. PIT | IND vs. LV | DAL vs. GB | ARI vs. LAR | LAC vs. SF | WAS vs. PHI | ATL vs. CAR

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs

• KC -9.5, O/U 50.5
• Jaguars vs. Chiefs Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• This game will be the play volume Disney World for the week. Jacksonville leads the way, ranking fifth in neutral pace, while Kansas City is seventh.
• The Chiefs continue to ride on the rifle arm of Mahomes, ranking first in neutral passing rate. The Jaguars have remained focused on the run, ranking 19th in neutral passing rate, but their pace has helped to boost the passing volume.

Quarterbacks

Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence has been on a roll with three top-12 finishes (QB4, QB8, QB12) in his last four games. Since Week 5, he’s started to use his legs, averaging 4.6 carries and 24.6 rushing yards with three rushing scores. The passing volume has risen recently, and Lawrence has had two outings since Week 5 with at least 40 passing attempts and 280 or more passing yards. The problem is Lawrence hasn’t been able to add on the passing scores, as he hasn’t thrown for multiple touchdowns since Week 4. Lawrence is a borderline QB1 this week in a fantastic scoring environment. Kansas City has been very average as a pass defense, ranking 14th in success rate per dropback, 14th in EPA per drop back, and 15th in yards per attempt. The Chiefs’ inability to stop passers from scoring offers Lawrence a ceiling, as they have given up the third-highest passing touchdown rate this season. Kansas City has also been happy to allow playmakers to break off big gains in the open field, ranking 28th in DVOA against short passing, seventh in YAC, and fourth in missed tackles allowed.

Patrick Mahomes: Mahomes is operating at a level that can likely only be matched by Josh Allen at the moment. Mahomes has been otherworldly, ranking third in PFF passing grade and tenth in big-time throw rate (minimum 50 dropbacks) while leading the NFL in passing yards and passing touchdowns. Like Kansas City, Jacksonville has struggled to defend underneath, ranking 27th in DVOA against short passing, fourth in YAC, and first in missed tackles allowed. This is a plus for Mahomes as he’s limited his deep shots this year, ranking 31st in deep ball rate (8.2%) and 18th in deep attempts (minimum ten deep attempts). The Jaguars are 16th in yards per attempt while holding passers out of the endzone (tenth-lowest passing touchdown rate allowed). Good luck expecting that to hold against Mahomes. Mahomes is a top-three fantasy quarterback weekly.

Running Backs

Travis Etienne: Since Week 7, Etienne has been the RB11 in fantasy averaging 24 touches and 135.6 total yards. Over the last three games, he also has a 10% Target share with a 53.2% route run rate. Etienne has rewarded the Jaguars’ faith in his ability to carry the load. He’s 27th in yards after contact per attempt, fifth in missed tackles forced, and ninth in breakaway rate (minimum 15 carries). Since Week 5, the Chiefs’ run defense has begun to falter, ranking 25th in rushing yards per game, 18th in EPA per rush, and 18th in explosive run rate allowed. If the Jaguars feature him in the passing game this week, Etienne could easily finish as a top-three back. Kansas City is 26th in DVOA against backs through the air giving up the most receptions and fourth-most receiving yards. Etienne RB1 SZN rolls on.

Weeks 7-9

Clyde Edwards-Helaire: Since Week 6, Edwards-Helaire has seen his role in this offense dry up. Over the last three games, he averaged 6.6 touches and 28 total yards with only three targets. He’s seen his snaps drop in each of the last three games from 42% to 17%. With the Chiefs moving to other running back options, Edwards-Helaire is a must-sit until we (if we do) see this trend reverse itself.

Isiah Pacheco: Pacheco is a low-end flex play in deeper formats. Since Week 6, he’s averaged six touches and 23.3 total yards. He hasn’t seen a red zone touch since Week 4, so expecting a touchdown or hoping for one in Week 10 is dicey. Pacheco looks to play the early down hammer role and see his role expand when the Chiefs are in positive game scripts. That hasn’t been the case in two of the last three games, but that should flip this week, with Kansas City being heavy favorites. Pacheco is 40th in yards after contact per attempt (minimum 15 carries), 18th in breakaway run rate, and 28th in true yards per carry. The Jaguars have been a stout run defense since Week 5, ranking 11th in rushing yards per game, 13th in EPA per rush, and 14th in explosive run rate.

Jerick McKinnon: Last week, with the Chiefs trailing, McKinnon played a season-high 62% of snaps with nine touches (eight targets) and 44 total yards. In the seven games prior, McKinnon averaged six touches and 33.6 total yards with three top-36 running back finishes (RB23, RB34, RB34). With a 45.3% route participation mark (19th), 8.1% Target share (29th), and 1.03 yards per route run (27th), McKinnon is a desperation PPR bye-week flex. He’ll be involved in passing downs regardless of whether the team is trailing or leading. Jacksonville is second in receptions and receiving yards allowed to running backs. McKinnon also leads the trio in red zone looks since Week 7.

Wide Receivers

Christian Kirk: Kirk has rebounded from a mid-season skid with top 20 weeks in two of his last three games (WR15, WR5). Overall, Kirk is the WR19 in fantasy with a 23.7% Target share (25th) and 27.3% of the team’s air yards (31st). He’s been heavily featured in the red zone with 11 targets (seventh). Kirk is 29th in PFF receiving grade and 27th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). He’ll run about 74% of his routes from the slot against L’Jarius Sneed (70% catch rate, 99.3 passer rating). The Chiefs have surrendered the sixth-most fantasy points to slot receivers this year. Kirk is a high-end WR2 in a wonderful scoring environment.

Zay Jones: Zay Jones is a WR4/5. Since Week 6, he has only one game with more than five targets and hasn’t drawn a red zone target since Week 3. Over the last four games, Jones has an 18.7% Target share with a meager 1.39 yards per route run. Jones will run about 64% of his routes against Trent McDuffie (only two targets, zero receptions in coverage) and Joshua Williams (60% catch rate, 102.8 passer rating).

Marvin Jones: if you’re looking for a sneaky flex play with upside this week, it’s Marvin Jones. Jones has been the Jaguars’ deep threat, ranking 12th in aDOT and 26th in deep targets (nine). The Chiefs are eighth in deep completion rate and ninth in deep receiving yards allowed. Since Week 5, Jones has run nearly half of his routes as the RWR, which will pit him against Williams.

JuJu Smith-Schuster: Smith-Schuster is on a hot streak as he’s climbed to WR22 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 6, he’s been a weekly WR1 (WR7, WR4, WR8). Over the last three games, he has had an 18.8% Target share (8.3 targets per game), averaging 7.3 receptions and 108.3 receiving yards per game with 2.44 yards per route run. He’s quickly become a Mahomes’ favorite inside the 20-yard with 11 red zone targets (seventh) and nine over his last four games. Smith-Schuster will run about 61% of his routes on the perimeter against Tyson Campbell (59.2% catch rate, 81.5 passer rating), Montaric Brown (three targets, 92.4 passer rating), and Tre Herndon (53.8% catch rate, 124.5 passer rating). Smith-Schuster will be a vital cog in the Chiefs’ offensive game plan this week. He’s sixth in YAC per reception and 18th in missed tackles forced among wideouts (minimum 15 targets). The Jaguars struggled after the catch ranking fifth in YAC and first in missed tackles allowed. Smith-Schuster is a WR1 this week.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: With Smith-Schuster’s ascension, Valdes-Scantling has been kicked to the bottom of the target tree. Since Week 6, he has had a 6% Target share, 17.4 aDOT, and 72.2% route run rate. Against a secondary that’s seventh in DVOA against deep passing allowing the 14th-lowest deep completion rate, it’s a good week to sit Valdes-Scantling.

Mecole Hardman: Hardman has been ruled out (abdomen).

Kadarius Toney: With Hardman ruled out, Toney could see a boost in work, but I think Skyy Moore is likelier to see a boost. Moore ran 19 routes last week, and Toney saw six. I’ll continue to monitor beat writer reports this week.

Skyy Moore: Moore bested Toney last week with 19 routes (Toney, six). Moore only has 12 targets this season, but he’s flashed when called upon. Among all receivers with at least 12 targets, Moore ranks third in YAC per reception with two missed tackles forced. This week, Moore could be a solid part of the game plan against a Jacksonville defense that struggles to defend after the catch. He’s a deep league flex dart at best, and DFS play unless we get word confirming full-time status or laying out his impending bump in playing time in Week 10.

Tight Ends

Evan Engram: Engram isn’t listed on the injury report (back) after limited practices to open the week and a full session Friday. Engram is the TE15 in fantasy and a mid-TE2 this week. He has a 15.9% Target share (13th) and 71.8% route participation (14th). Engram is top-ten among tight ends in air yard share, deep targets, receiving yards, and YAC. Kansas City is 19th in DVOA, allowing the 12th-most receiving yards and fourth-most receiving touchdowns to tight ends.

Travis Kelce: Kelce remains a monster. He’s the TE1 in fantasy with a 24.8% Target share (third) and 22.9% air yard share (third). Kelce leads the NFL in red zone targets. He’s first among tight ends in PFF receiving grade, fourth in yards per route run, and second in YAC. Jacksonville is 32nd in DVOA against tight ends with the third-highest yards per reception allowed.

SEA vs. TB | MIN vs. BUF | DET vs. CHI | DEN vs. TEN | JAC vs. KC | CLE vs. MIA | HOU vs. NYG | NO vs. PIT | IND vs. LV | DAL vs. GB | ARI vs. LAR | LAC vs. SF | WAS vs. PHI | ATL vs. CAR

Cleveland Browns vs. Miami Dolphins

• MIA -3.5, O/U 49
• Browns vs. Dolphins Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• In close games, the Browns and Dolphins are middle-of-the-road pace teams (17th, 22nd).
• The Browns won’t shock anyone as they continue to feed their ground game, sitting at tenth in neutral rushing rate. The same can be said for the Dolphins’ aerial attack, as Miami is 12th in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Jacoby Brissett: Brissett has settled in as a solid QB2 with some upside weekly. He’s the QB23 in fantasy points per game with two QB1 weeks and five games as the QB16 or better. Brissett is eighth in true completion rate, 13th in deep ball completion rate, and has added some value with his legs. He’s 11th in rushing yards, eighth in rushing touchdowns, and seventh in red zone carries among quarterbacks. The Dolphins’ secondary has been giving with the fifth-highest success rate per dropback, fourth-highest EPA per drop back, and seventh in passing touchdown rate and yards per attempt allowed.

Tua Tagovailoa: Tagovailoa has established himself as a QB1 with a high weekly ceiling with four weeks as a top-four fantasy quarterback. He’s near the top in nearly every metric, ranking sixth in fantasy points per dropback, seventh in accuracy rating, first in adjusted yards per attempt, and fifth in true completion rate. The Browns are another secondary Tagovailoa can shred as they are tied for seventh in yards per attempt and 13th in passing touchdown rate allowed. Cleveland is also 30th in DVOA against deep passing giving up the eighth-highest deep completion rate. Tagovailoa has been one of (if not the best) deep-ball passers in the NFL this season. He ranks first in PFF’s deep passing grade, first in deep adjusted completion rate, and 11th in deep passer rating (minimum ten deep passing attempts). Tagovailoa is a top-five fantasy quarterback.

Running Backs

Nick Chubb: Chubb is the RB4 in fantasy averaging 19.9 touches and 113.9 total yards. He’s been a near lock for 100 rushing yards hitting the over in five of eight games this year. In two weeks were he missed the century mark he concluded with 87 and 91 rushing yards. Chubb is 15th in yards after contact per attempt, first in missed tackles forced, and seventh in PFF elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). He is also 15th in weighted opportunities and second in red zone touches. The Dolphins run defense has relented some since Week 5, ranking 17th in rushing yards per game, 27th in EPA per rush, and 22nd in explosive run rate allowed. Chubb is a weekly RB1.

Kareem Hunt: Since Week 2, Hunt has averaged 11.5 touches and 50.3 total yards playing 43-49% of the snaps weekly. Over his last seven games, Hunt has finished as at least an RB3 six times, with only one game as an RB2 or better (RB20). Hunt is 11th in red zone touches with four touchdowns (20th) this season. He’s remained efficient with his work ranking ninth in juke rate and 15th in evaded tackles. Hunt is a weekly RB3 that will finish as an RB2 if he gets in the end zone. Miami has been susceptible to receiving backs ranking 28th in DVOA with the ninth-most receptions and fourth-highest yards per reception permitted.

Week 9

Jeff Wilson: It took only one game for El Jefe to supplant Raheem Mostert as the Dolphins’ lead back. Wilson equaled Mostert in early down work while running one more route and handling most of the red zone work. Wilson played 49% of the snaps with 12 touches and 72 total yards as the RB8. Wilson is 27th in evaded tackles, eighth in breakaway run rate, and 12th in yards per touch. The Browns remain a basement-level run defense. Since Week 4, they are 26th in rushing yards per game, 32nd in EPA per rush, and 27th in explosive run rate allowed. Cleveland is 27th in adjusted line yards and 27th in open field yards. Wilson is an RB2.

Raheem Mostert: Mostert is a high-end RB3. Mostert can take advantage of the same juicy matchup like Wilson, but losing priority in the red zone bumps him down a peg. Mostert is the RB37 in fantasy, ranking 28th in evaded tackles, 26th in breakaway run rate, and 31st in yards per touch. He’s a good bet for 10-15 touches this week, and if he gets into the endzone, he’ll likely outperform my ranking and land inside the top 24 running backs for the week.

Wide Receivers

Amari Cooper: Cooper has surpassed my expectations for his inaugural season in Cleveland. He’s proven finally that he can be a top-shelf target earner ranking 14th in Target share (27.3%) and ninth in target per route run rate. Cooper has made the most of his mountain of targets ranking 15th in PFF’s receiving grade and 14th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Cooper is a low-end WR1 facing off against a secondary that’s ninth in fantasy points per game allowed to wide receivers and 11th in total fantasy points surrendered to perimeter wideouts. Cooper will run about 75% of his routes against Xavien Howard (67.4% catch rate, 144.6 passer rating) and the tandem of Keion Crossen (63..6% catch rate, 137.5 passer rating) and Noah Igbinoghene (52.9% catch rate, 68.8 passer rating).

Donovan Peoples-Jones: Peoples-Jones has rattled off three consecutive games inside as a WR3 (WR33, WR34, WR34). He’s finished with at least 70 receiving yards in four of his last five games. Peoples-Jones has a 19.0% Target share, with three of his five red zone targets this season coming in his last five games. The Dolphins’ outside corners have been deployed in zone coverage on 56% to 57% of their snaps since Week 6. Against zone coverage, Peoples-Jones has seen 47% of his target volume (Cooper 32.8%), ranking 24th in yards per route run and 28th in PFF zone receiving grade (minimum 10 zone targets). Peoples-Jones is a low-end WR3/high-end WR4.

Tyreek Hill: Hill is unstoppable. He’s the WR3 in fantasy points per game with over 140 receiving yards in three of his last four games. Hill is second in Target share (33.0%), first in target per route run rate, fifth in air yard share, and first in deep targets. The only ding in his armor remains his red zone usage with three red zone targets (68th). This is on the rise, though, as he received two red zone looks last week. Hill is poised to break the slate before the season is over. One of these weeks, he’ll string together 2-3 touchdowns with his insane yardage totals. Hill leads the NFL in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Hill should decimate the Browns’ zone-heavy coverage approach. Since Week 7, the Browns have deployed their corners in zone in 71-73% of their snaps. Hill is first in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run against zone leading Justin Jefferson (in second place, minimum ten zone targets) by 1.06 yards per route run. Hill is the WR1 overall this week.

Jaylen Waddle: Waddle is a weekly WR1. He’s the WR9 in fantasy points per game with a 22.8% Target share and 27.9% air-yard share. Waddle has been active downfield with seven deep targets (38th) and near the goal line with seven red zone targets (29th). Waddle should shred the Browns’ zone as well. He’s seen 67% of his target volume against zone, ranking fifth in PFF receiving grades and fourth in yards per route run (minimum ten zone targets).

Tight Ends

David Njoku: Njoku has been ruled out after DNPs all week (ankle). Harrison Bryant isn’t on the streaming radar after running only 12 routes last week (70% snaps) and drawing zero targets.

Mike Gesicki: Over the last two games, Gesicki has seen his route run rate hover at 52.5% and 61.3%. In the three games prior, he never dipped below 61.1% (61.1-69.6%). This makes Gesicki a more volatile fantasy option. Since Week 5, Gesicki has had a 12.8% Target share with a 44.4% endzone Target share and 1.33 yards per route run. Gesicki is a TE2 against a defense holding tight ends to the second-lowest catch rate and the third-lowest fantasy points from the slot (Gesicki 52.5% slot).

SEA vs. TB | MIN vs. BUF | DET vs. CHI | DEN vs. TEN | JAC vs. KC | CLE vs. MIA | HOU vs. NYG | NO vs. PIT | IND vs. LV | DAL vs. GB | ARI vs. LAR | LAC vs. SF | WAS vs. PHI | ATL vs. CAR

Houston Texans vs. New York Giants

• NYG -4.5, O/U 41
• Texans vs. Giants Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The game will be slow. Each of these teams is outside the top 20 in neutral pace (NYG 23rd, HOU 25th).
• Houston continues to operate with a balanced attack (16th in neutral passing rate), while the Giants live and die on the legs of Saquon Barkley (fourth in neutral rushing rate).

Quarterbacks

Davis Mills: Mills is a bottom-of-the-barrel QB2 that’s better off on your bench even in Superflex formats this week. He’s the QB27 in fantasy points per game, with five of his eight games as the QB20 or lower in weekly fantasy scoring. The Giants have held strong with the eighth-lowest passing touchdown rate and sixth-lowest yards per attempt allowed. New York’s pass rush is first in blitz rate and 12th in pressure rate. Mills has melted when the heat is turned up, ranking 19th in PPF’s pressured passing grade, 25th in pressure-adjusted completion rate, and 22nd in yards per attempt when under duress.

Daniel Jones: Jones is the QB14 in fantasy points per game and a QB2 with QB1 upside this week. Jones is tenth in adjusted completion rate (minimum 50 dropbacks) and 11th in fantasy points per dropback. Much of his fantasy success has been related to his rushing production. Jones is fourth in rushing yards per game and fifth in red zone carries per game. Houston is 19th in passing yards per game, 23rd in EPA per drop back, and 29th in explosive pass rate allowed.

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley: Barkley continues the revival party in 2022. He’s the RB5 in fantasy averaging 23.9 touches and 121 total yards. Barkley is fifth in evaded tackles, 13th in breakaway run rate, and 21st in yards created per touch. Bell cows like Barkley are rare in today’s NFL. He’s top-three in snap share, opportunity share, and weighted opportunities. He’ll post top-three RB numbers this week against a run defense that’s bottom four in rushing yards per game, rush EPA per play, and explosive run rate allowed.

#Giants DC Wink Martindale on Texans rookie RB Dameon Pierce: “I don’t know who said something to him or did something to him to make him so angry… but that might be the angriest runner in the league” pic.twitter.com/phHcbRDWgF

— Madelyn Burke (@MadelynBurke) November 9, 2022

Dameon Pierce: Let the battle of the stud running backs in the Bronx commence. Pierce is the RB14 in fantasy who hasn’t finished lower than RB20 since Week 3. Pierce has established himself as “the guy” in Houston. Pierce ranks tenth in opportunity share, 11th in weighted opportunity, and 16th in snap share. Since Week 3, Pierce has averaged 23.3 touches and 110 total yards. Despite the anemic Texans’ offense, Pierce is 11th in red zone touches. He’s a human bulldozer, ranking 14th in yards after contact per attempt, third in missed tackles forced, and sixth in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). Pierce will trample the Giants on his way to another RB1 finish. New York is 26th in rushing yards per game, 25th in EPA per rush, and 28th in explosive run rate allowed.

Wide Receivers

Brandin Cooks: Cooks has been listed as questionable (wrist). He missed practice on Wednesday before upgrading to limited practices on Thursday and Friday. Cooks has dipped to the WR43 in fantasy points per game. He’s drawn a 23.1% Target share and 29.4% air yard share but hasn’t crossed the 80 receiving yards mark since Week 1. He’s a low-ceiling WR3/4 that will run about 74% of his routes against Fabian Moreau (54.3% catch rate, 85.5 passer rating) and Adoree’ Jackson (56.8% catch rate, 93.6 passer rating).

Nico Collins: Collins managed limited practices all week (groin) and has been listed as questionable. Collins is the WR61 in fantasy points per game with a 14.9% Target share and one red zone target this season. He’s surpassed 60 receiving yards only twice this season. He’ll run about 93% of his routes on the perimeter against Moreau and Jackson. Collins is a WR5.

Darius Slayton: Slayton has been heating up since Week 5 with three top-36 fantasy wide receiver weeks (WR22, WR19, WR36). In Weeks 5-8, Slayton was 18th in PFF receiving grade and 20th in yards per route run (minimum ten targets). Since Week 5, Slayton has a 19.8% Target share and a 37.3% air yard share. He’ll run about 77% of his routes against Derek Stingley (67.4% catch rate, 85.9 passer rating) and Steven Nelson (60.6% catch rate, 75.1 passer rating). Slayton is a WR4 with upside.

Wan’Dale Robinson: Before the Week 9 bye, Robinson was the WR29 and WR35 before falling on his face in Week 8. Robinson managed three targets (WR69) despite a route run rate of 77.8%. Since Week 6, Robinson has had a 17.6% Target share with two red zone targets and 1.44 yards per route run. Robinson will run about 77% of his routes from the slot against Desmond King (68.2% catch rate, 72.7 passer rating). The Texans have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to slot wide receivers this season. Robinson is a WR5.

Tight Ends

N/A: No tight end from this game is worth considering for your fantasy lineups.

SEA vs. TB | MIN vs. BUF | DET vs. CHI | DEN vs. TEN | JAC vs. KC | CLE vs. MIA | HOU vs. NYG | NO vs. PIT | IND vs. LV | DAL vs. GB | ARI vs. LAR | LAC vs. SF | WAS vs. PHI | ATL vs. CAR