The main slate for Week 18 is massive. It has 13 games on DraftKings and 14 on FanDuel since they include the Sunday Night Football game. As if sifting through the massive player pool isn’t challenging enough on a vast slate, teams have different degrees of motivation this week. For instance, some teams have their playoff spot sewn up and might opt to rest starters. On the other hand, teams that were eliminated from the playoffs might decide to look at younger reserves with an eye on the 2023 season. This piece sifts through everything and makes an educated guess on who’s reliable this week.
Week 18 Matchups
Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
Spread: ATL -4.0 Points
Over/Under: 40.5 Points
Buccaneers Analysis: The Buccaneers are locked into the NFC’s fourth seed, but they will start their starters. Still, playing them the entire game and risking an injury would be coaching malpractice. So, the starters probably get an early hook, which is reflected in the betting info.
Falcons Analysis: Tyler Allgeier is spectacularly closing his rookie campaign. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Allgeier is second in Yards After Contact per Attempt (3.92 YCO/A), tied for second in missed tackles forced (28 MTF), third in yards per carry (5.4) and seventh in rushing yards per game (76.2) among 45 running backs who've attempted at least 40 rushes since Week 11.
Allgeier has done his part. Yet, he also has an excellent run-blocking offensive line paving the way for him. Per Football Outsiders, the Falcons are fifth in Adjusted Line Yards (4.72). The bruising runner will also benefit if the betting info comes to fruition and the Falcons win since a neutral and positive game script will lead to a busy day on the ground. Thus, Allgeier is an enticing value pick. According to the lineup optimizer, he is tied for the third-highest value score among running backs (RB3V) at DK and has the RB7V at FD.
Drake London is another interesting rookie from the Falcons. The big-bodied wideout has been peppered with targets since fellow rookie Desmond Ridder moved up the depth chart in Week 15. According to numberFire, London has a 32.9% Target Share, 19 receptions, 213 receiving yards and 233 Air Yards in Ridder's three starts. He's especially valuable on DK's full-point point-per-reception (PPR) format and has the WR2V score.
Game: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Spread: BUF -7.0 Points
Over/Under: 42.5 Points
Patriots Analysis: In New England's previous four matchups against the Bills, they scored 10, 17, 21 and 14 points. Per Pro-Football-Reference, they had under 330 total yards on offense in their last five games, falling short of 300 three times. So, they're not helpful for DFS.
Bills Analysis: First, there's good news about the health for safety Damar Hamlin.
The positive news is a relief, and I extend my best wishes to him, his family and anyone struggling with the scary nature of the entire situation.
The Bills are scheduled to take the field against the Patriots to close their regular season. Frankly, it's unclear how the players will respond to the trying week. Yet, Buffalo's offense has significant upside this week if they can refocus and persevere, starting with Josh Allen.
Buffalo's dual-threat quarterback is projected as the QB1 in DFS, is tied for the QB3V at DK and has the QB1V at FD. Allen averaged 281.7 passing yards and 50.0 rushing yards per game while tossing 10 touchdowns against the Patriots in his past three games against them.
Stefon Diggs is another high-upside choice. He's averaging 6.7 receptions and 88.3 receiving yards per game and scored 10 touchdowns. The matchup is good, too. According to The 33rd Team and data from Sports Info Solutions (SIS), the Patriots have tied for the seventh-most DK and allowed the seventh-most FD points per game to perimeter wide receivers since Week 11. According to PFF, Diggs has aligned wide on 65.6% of his passing snaps.
Gabe Davis also has a good matchup as a perimeter receiver. He's played 90.1% of his passing snaps lined up wide. The third-year pro has been up and down this year. Still, Davis had more than 70 receiving yards and at least one touchdown four times this season. Sadly, Davis also had fewer than 40 receiving yards and zero touchdowns six times. Therefore, Davis is a volatile pick.
Dawson Knox might offer the most bang for your buck among Buffalo's pass-catchers. Since Week 10, he's seventh among tight ends in receiving yards per game (45.9). Knox also had a touchdown in his previous three games. He's also hauled in at least three receptions and cleared 40 receiving yards in his past three games.
James Cook is a viable value pick as a stylistic fit for this matchup. The Patriots are challenging to run against, but they're picked apart through the air by running backs. New England has allowed the fourth-most receptions (6.4) and eighth-most receiving yards per game (45.4) to running backs since Week 11. In the first matchup, Cook had 105 scrimmage yards and six receptions against the Patriots. As a result, the dynamic rookie is a nifty value choice.
Game: Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: CIN -7.0 Points
Over/Under: 41.5 Points
Ravens Analysis: Lamar Jackson hasn't practiced, and now Tyler Huntley is nursing wrist and shoulder injuries while practicing in a limited capacity. Nevertheless, the Ravens have scored more than 17 points only once since their bye in Week 10. They're a DFS wasteland.
Bengals Analysis: Ja'Marr Chase hasn't skipped a beat since he returned from his hip injury in Week 13. Instead, he's been a target hog. Chase has had a 30.3% Target Share since he came back. The second-year wideout has parlayed his robust usage into 8.0 receptions and 88.8 receiving yards per game and scored two touchdowns.
The Ravens are unlikely to slow him this week. According to Football Outsiders, No. 1 wide receivers have averaged the ninth-most receiving yards per game (73.8) against Baltimore this season. Thus, Chase has a sky-high ceiling worth chasing in tournaments.
Game: Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Spread: MIN -7.5 Points
Over/Under: 43.0 Points
Vikings Analysis: Nathan Peterman is starting for the Bears this week. According to StatHead, Peterman has the highest interception rate (9.2%) among quarterbacks who've attempted at least 100 passes since the AFL and NFL merger. Chicago's pitiful skill-position players are unlikely to elevate Peterman, making Minnesota's defense an excellent choice at a bargain salary.
Bears Analysis: Chicago's offense is a joke. They've scored 20 points or fewer in their previous five games and are unlikely to approach that mark, led by Peterman this week.
Game: Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Spread: IND -2.5 Points
Over/Under: 38.0 Points
Texans Analysis: The Texans are bereft of offensive talent. Gamers can comfortably fade them in their quest to retain the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Colts Analysis: Indianapolis's season will go out with a whimper and sub-NFL-caliber quarterback Sam Ehlinger starting. The Colts scored 16 and three points in his two starts, and they scored 10 points last week. So, Indy is another team to fade.
Game: New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
Spread: NYJ -1.0 Points
Over/Under: 38.5 Points
Jets Analysis: Unfortunately, Garrett Wilson had just three receptions for 18 scoreless yards last week. It's a mistake to dismiss his usage, though. The supremely talented rookie had a 23.9% Target Share last week. Wilson also has a 23.4% Target Share, 22 receptions, 353 receiving yards, 504 Air Yards and two touchdowns on Mike White's 175 passes this season. Gamers should take advantage of the discount provided in DFS this week because of last week's showing since Wilson has the WR3V at DK and the WR8V at FD.
Dolphins Analysis: The wheels have fallen off the bus for the Dolphins. It's unclear who will start at quarterback for Miami this week, but Tua Tagovailoa is unlikely to get the nod. Teddy Bridgewater has also been limited in practice by a knee and right-finger injury. The concern for Bridgewater's availability was enough for the team to sign Mike Glennon to their practice squad. Skylar Thompson projects as the starter if Bridgewater can't play.
Incredibly, the outlook gets direr for the Dolphins. Left tackle Terron Armstead hasn't practiced this week, and fellow tackle Eric Fisher was downgraded from limited participation on Wednesday to no involvement on Thursday. Can Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle overcome the lousy circumstances? Maybe. Yet, their salaries are too rich to invest in them in a challenging matchup with a below-average quarterback slinging them the ball.
Game: Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
Spread: NO -3.5 Points
Over/Under: 41.5 Points
Panthers Analysis: Is D.J. Moore a defensible DFS pick? Sure. Still, Carolina's implied total is lackluster, and there are more appealing picks in Moore's salary range, leaving him on the outside of this piece and looking in.
Saints Analysis: Rashid Shaheed was an undrafted free agent this year, and he's climbed to a starting role. The rookie wideout had a pair of long touchdowns earlier in the year, flashing his big-play potential. The big-play ability was nice, but a steadier role now elevates his ceiling and floor.
In his last five games, Shaheed has an 18.9% Target Share, 19 receptions, 333 receiving yards, 3.11 Yards per Route Run (Y/RR) and one touchdown. In a plus matchup, he can finish his improbable rookie season on a high note.
The Panthers have allowed the second-most DK and FD points per game to perimeter wide receivers since Week 11, and Shaheed played 76.1% of his passing snaps aligned wide in his last five games. Fortunately, the matchup is also good when he kicks into the slot since Carolina's ceded the seventh-most DK and ninth-most FD points per game to slot wide receivers since Week 11. Finally, No. 2 wide receivers have averaged the most receiving yards per game (65.2) against the Panthers. So, Shaheed is an ideal value pick.
Game: Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
Spread: PIT -2.5 Points
Over/Under: 40.0 Points
Browns Analysis: The Browns' offense is a tire fire with Deshaun Watson at the helm. Gamers are encouraged to ignore them this week.
Steelers Analysis: Najee Harris had a head-turning performance against Baltimore's stout run defense last week, gashing them for 111 yards on the ground and 12 through the air on two receptions and a touchdown catch. The second-year back had more than 20 touches in his previous three games, and he has a cushy matchup this week. According to Football Outsiders, the Browns are 26th in rush defense DVOA since Week 11. Harris can eat on a workhorse's workload in a soft matchup and projects well in the optimizer, projecting as the RB5, with the RB1V at DK and the RB8 while tying for the RB5V at FD.
Game: New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: PHI -14.0 Points
Over/Under: 43.0 Points
Giants Analysis: The Giants clinched their playoff berth last week and could rest their starters or pull them after a few series.
Eagles Analysis: The Eagles will claim the top seed in the NFC if they win, and they can slide behind the Cowboys in the NFC East if they lose and Dallas wins. Obviously, they're motivated. Still, Jalen Hurts could be rusty after a two-week absence if he's back, and the Eagles could lean on the rushing attack if they slaughter Big Blue as the 14.0-point spread suggests.
As a result, Hurts and his two top-shelf wideouts aren't appealing at their respective salaries. On the other hand, Dallas Goedert is interesting at a palatable salary and a position that lacks talent. The talented tight end had six receptions for 112 receiving yards in two games since returning from an injury, both started by Gardner Minshew. The fifth-year pro has averaged 4.5 receptions and 59.6 receiving yards per game this season and scored three touchdowns.
Goedert's production is useful for fantasy, and his matchup boosts his appeal in Week 18. The Giants have yielded the ninth-most DK and FD points per game to tight ends since Week 11. Goedert is projected as the TE4 and has the TE4V at DK, and he's the TE5 and has the TE3V at FD.
Game: Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders
Spread: DAL -7.0 Points
Over/Under: 41.0 Points
Cowboys Analysis: The Cowboys won't know the outcome of Philadelphia's game when they play. Dallas could yank their starters early if someone in the organization is watching the scoreboard and the Eagles are boat-racing the Giants, but that's a risk worth taking for CeeDee Lamb.
Dak Prescott's thrown 357 passes this year, and Lamb has been the apple of his eye, amassing a 27.5% Target Share, 71 receptions, 927 receiving yards, 985 Air Yards and six receiving touchdowns, all team-high marks. The third-year wideout has kicked his production up a notch this year, and he's rolling. Lamb had at least 100 receiving yards in each of his last three games. He's the WR3 at DK and the WR4 at FD, owning the WR3V at the latter.
T.Y. Hilton is a reasonable punt to speculate on this week. The veteran receiver made his season debut for the Cowboys in Week 16 and played only 16% of their snaps, and his snap share climbed to 28% last week. Hilton has made the most of his limited playing time this year, earning a target on 31.6% of his 19 routes and securing five receptions for 102 receiving yards. The Cowboys may cut him loose for a few more snaps and routes this week if he's further acclimated to the playbook or they want to get him more game reps before the postseason.
Commanders Analysis: The Commanders are giving the keys to the offense to fifth-round pick Sam Howell for his first professional start. It's a tall order, and Washington's offense is likelier to struggle with the first-time starter than spring a surprise outburst.
Game: Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos
Spread: DEN -2.5 Points
Over/Under: 39.5 Points
Chargers Analysis: The Chargers will be locked into the fifth seed if the Bengals beat the Ravens in the afternoon. At that point, the Chargers wouldn't have any motivation to play their starters the whole game, hence the Broncos being favored by 2.5 points. The Chargers are a viable source for post-lock swaps in the afternoon if the Bengals are upset by the Ravens, but I don't expect Baltimore to win. Thus, the Chargers are a poor source of DFS picks.
Broncos Analysis: Albert Okwuegbunam has been in the doghouse most of this year. However, interim head coach Jerry Rosburg is a fan of Albert O's athleticism and freed him from the doghouse last week.
The speedy tight end had three receptions, 45 receiving yards and one touchdown last week and was targeted six times on 26 routes. Okwuegbunam was also moved around the formation, playing four snaps inline, eight wide and 17 in the slot, per PFF. As a result, Okwuegbunam is on the radar this week as a punt.
Game: Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
Spread: SF -14.0 Points
Over/Under: 40.5 Points
Cardinals Analysis: David Blough is starting for the Cardinals again this week. Greg Dortch's showing in Week 17 was a mixed bag when Blough started. The bad news was Dortch's four receptions for 15 scoreless yards. The good news was the diminutive slot receiver's 10 targets.
The volume was ground for going back to the well this week in a good matchup. The 49ers have allowed the ninth-most DK and tied for the ninth-most FD points per game allowed to slot wide receivers since Week 11. Finally, this week, Dortch should be a popular option for Blough again since DeAndre Hopkins is out. Last week represented Dortch's low floor, but a few more connections on a similar target volume would allow him to clear the low bar needed for providing DFS gamers with value.
49ers Analysis: Christian McCaffrey hasn't practiced this week. Hopefully, the 49ers are exercising caution ahead of the playoffs. CMC's status must be monitored, though.
He's in a smash spot this week if he plays. First, the 49ers are fourth in Adjusted Line Yards (4.73). Second, the Cardinals are a trainwreck when defending the run. Arizona is 30th in rush defense DVOA since Week 11. During that timeframe, they coughed up the most DK and the second-most FD points per game to running backs. CMC's a do-it-all back and equipped to destroy the Cardinals. As a result, he's projected as the RB1 in DFS, is tied for the RB3V in DK and has the RB1V at FD.
Brock Purdy and the passing attack also have a favorable matchup. The Cardinals are 24th in pass defense DVOA since Week 11. Purdy has also excelled in his rookie year. I discussed Purdy earlier this week at numberFire in 5 NFL FanDuel Value Plays to Target in Week 18, and the rationale for using him as a value at FD also applies to using him at DK. So, readers should check out that piece. In addition, Purdy is tied for the QB3V at DK and has the QB4V at FD.
George Kittle is cooking with gasoline. He enters this week on a three-game streak for reaching paydirt and had 14 receptions for 236 yards and five touchdowns during that three-game stretch. Kittle also demolished the Cardinals in Week 11, reeling in four receptions for 84 yards and two touchdowns. Kittle is the TE1 in DFS this week and has a ceiling worth chasing in tournaments.
Game: Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
Spread: SEA -6.5 Points
Over/Under: 41.5 Points
Rams Analysis: Cam Akers was cooked earlier in the year. However, he's reclaimed his pre-Achilles surgery explosion down the stretch. Akers went over 100 rushing yards in his previous two games. Moreover, he's 10th in rushing yards per game (72.3), fourth in missed tackles forced (27) and tied for third in rushing touchdowns (six) among running backs who've toted the rock at least 40 times since Week 11.
Akers has a mouthwatering matchup to stay hot this week. Since Week 11, the Seahawks are 28th in rush defense DVOA, coughed up the second-most DK points per game and ceded the most FD points per game to running backs. The most significant concern is the game's spread and the potential for a negative game script for Akers and the Rams. Otherwise, it's all systems go for Akers, making him a tantalizing GPP choice.
Seahawks Analysis: The Rams have stumbled to the finish line. They're 23rd in pass defense DVOA and 22nd in rush defense DVOA since Week 11. So, the Seahawks can move the ball against the Rams through the air or on the ground.
In neutral game scripts since Week 11, the Seahawks have attempted 120 passes and attempted 62 rushes by non-quarterbacks. The pass-heavy approach is good for Geno Smith's and DK Metcalf's outlook against the Rams. Sadly, Smith hasn't knocked anyone's socks off lately.
Nonetheless, he torched the Rams for 367 passing yards and three passing touchdowns in Week 13. The late-bloomer is 10th in passing yards per game (254.3) and tied for fourth in passing touchdowns (29). The Seahawks can make the playoffs if they win and the Packers lose in the Sunday Night Football game. Therefore, Smith isn't in danger of getting the hook.
Metcalf is also an awesome pick. The yolked wideout had a disappointing game last week, catching only one pass for three yards. However, Metcalf had at least five receptions in his last eight games and had more than 70 yards or a touchdown in seven of those contests. The matchup is ideal for a rebound this week. No. 1 wide receivers have had the fourth-most receiving yards per game (80.3) against the Rams this season. The optimizer digs Metcalf, projecting him as the WR8 at DK, the WR10 at FD and a tie for the WR5V at FD.
Ken Walker is another exciting piece from Seattle's offense. The rookie running back had more than 100 rushing yards in the last two weeks. Pete Carroll has ridden Walker hard, feeding him 49 carries in Seattle's previous two games, and Walker's answered the bell by rushing for 240 yards.
Running backs have steamrolled the Rams for the 10th-most DK and tied for the ninth-most FD points per game since Week 11. Walker's workload, coupled with the favorable matchup, makes him the RB4 in DFS, with the RB2V at DK and the RB4V at FD.
Game: Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
Spread: GB -4.5 Points
Over/Under: 49.0 Points
Lions Analysis: Jared Goff stank on the road this year. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Goff threw six touchdowns and four interceptions and averaged 248.9 passing yards per game in seven road games this season. Unfortunately, Goff's lousy road numbers make Detroit unexciting for DFS on FanDuel's main slate.
Packers Analysis: Christian Watson can boom one more time in his rookie season. The dynamic rookie has practiced in a limited capacity this week after playing through his hip injury last week. Watson was relatively quiet last week. Still, in his previous eight games, Watson's averaged 3.7 receptions and 59.9 receiving yards per game. He also had a nose for the end zone, scoring eight touchdowns. Finally, the matchup cements Watson's status as a desirable high-upside pick. The Lions have allowed the most receiving yards per game (90.2) to No. 1 wideouts this year and surrendered the fifth-most FD points per game to perimeter wide receivers since Week 11.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
