With the middle set of fantasy football snake draft picks, it’s critical that you come prepared with an optimal and flexible approach. It’s less about deciding which players are good/bad (they are being drafted in Round 1 for a reason, after all) and more about building a strong foundation for success that sets the standard for your roster throughout the draft. Thinking about your player targets in Round 2 should already be on your mind before you make your selection at the start of Round 1.
That’s why preparing your tier lists — or leveraging FantasyPros’ built-in tiers and rankings — is so critical to success. However, it won’t always be that simple without a top-four pick, as is the case in this exercise.
The biggest question entering the middle of Round 1 in 2023 fantasy football drafts will undoubtedly be a debate between going RB, WR, QB, or Travis Kelce (if he falls) and how that impacts your drafts as the rounds progress. Obviously, your randomized draft slot between 1.05-1.08 — where there tends to be more variance than inside the top-four picks — will make for some exciting draft rooms.
That’s what I am considering “middle snake draft picks,” with 1.01-1.04 as the early snake picks and 1.09-1.12 as the late snake picks in traditional 12-team fantasy football leagues. I will be referring to Underdog and Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC Best Ball) as my average draft position (ADP) source — the latter, which is home to the 2023 FantasyPros Championship.
- Early Snake Draft Picks Strategy & Advice
- Best Ball Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- Dynasty Trade Value Chart
- Dynasty Rookie Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
Strategy for Middle Snake Draft Picks (2023 Fantasy Football)
Let’s take a look at fantasy football draft strategy for middle-round picks in snake draft formats.
Rounds 10 and Beyond
You should be actively implementing “what if” thought exercises in the late rounds of your fantasy football drafts. Simply put, “If ‘x’ happens, what would that do to ‘x’ player’s value.” Again, this is most commonly seen from injuries, with players seeing spikes in production/value when a teammate goes down. Some players have that factored into their ADPs with injury-prone teammates, but others do not. And at the end of the day, it’s full-contact football. Guys we expect to get hurt, and guys we don’t expect to get hurt are going to miss games. We can’t project when/if said injuries are going to happen, but what savvy drafters can do is stockpile the back of their drafts with talented players who are being discounted because of their situation.
Worry not about what Player A’s role will be in Week 1 when you draft them in the late double digits. Chances are, that doesn’t matter. Focus on what’s in the players’ range of outcomes should he see an expanded role as the season wanes.
That was one of the biggest takeaways from my Wide Receiver Season Recap & Advice for 2023 (Fantasy Football). Don’t overvalue early-season opportunities versus talent. I fell for the Romeo Doubs hype train and didn’t invest nearly enough in Christian Watson, even though everything that was not written by a Packers training camp beat reporter clearly showed that Watson was the superior prospect. And all it took was for him to get healthy and for Doubs to underwhelm as a Day 3 pick — not shocking — for everybody else to get on board.
Just buy the dip on talent when the ADP is so suppressed due to the situation. And don’t forget about the players who delivered worthwhile performances in the past when they were presented with opportunities. Being a proven asset in some capacity matters.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Brandon Aiyuk, Marquise Brown, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Garett Wilson, Richie James Jr., Greg Dortch and Elijah Moore all either increased their production or commanded targets at a high rate due to injuries to teammates around them this past season. Not all of them will be late-round picks, but some definitely will. And those are the archetype of players you should be looking to target.
Some of my favorite late-round WRs (outside the top 100) include Elijah Moore, Jakobi Meyers, Zay Jones, Skyy Moore, Jonathan Mingo, Nico Collins, D.J. Chark, Rashid Shaheed, Hunter Renfrow, Isaiah Hodgins, Richie James and Deonte Harty.
I also believe in another thought exercise of “he’s the discount version of Player X.” I find it very useful. Why draft a committee pass-catching back in Jahmyr Gibbs in Round 3 when you can draft Antonio Gibson so much later?
Players who have defined roles that go extremely late can also be beneficial targets. The constant bombardment of “upside-centric” analysis makes these players not talked about enough. Even though players entering 2022 like Zay Jones and Curtis Samuel — clearly defined roles on offense with spikes of proven production — were strong contributors to their rosters. There’s an upside to playing an every-down role on an offense.
Hence, why chasing the upside-centric dragon is not wrong. You want upside on your fantasy football teams. But some balance never hurts. Because “only-upside” players typically also have extremely shaky floors. And too many guys that fail to fire will leave your squad helpless.
Chase players who project for air yards and rookies. Air yards tell us how often a player is being used downfield, which is part of the formula when it comes to spike weeks of fantasy production. Particularly at WR and TE.
Some potential late-round guys in 2023 drafts who commanded a high end of their team’s air yards (20% or higher) in 2022 include Darius Slayton, Van Jefferson, Nico Collins, D.J. Chark, Alec Pierce, Terrace Marshall, Corey Davis, Marvin Jones, Tyquan Thornton, Michael Gallup, Mack Hollins, Rondale Moore and Chase Claypool.
Players with high average depth per target (ADOT) include Jameson Williams, Gabe Davis, George Pickens and Jahan Dotson.
When it comes to rookies, you need to be aggressive in drafting them throughout the summer months. I mentioned this in both the RB best-ball primer and WR best-ball primer. Specifically for rookie WRs, it is even more important.
Their ADPs often do not fully capture the upside they possess. The ADP acts more like a hedge or median projection when first-year players of recent years are so much more boom-or-bust. They either hit in a big way — Garrett Wilson, Jahan Dotson, George Pickens, Drake London, Chris Olave, Christian Watson — or drastically underwhelm — Skyy Moore, Treylon Burks, Jameson Williams. They are lottery tickets who you need to always draft as they are frequently discounted outside the top 36. Take full advantage.
Keep in mind that rookie WRs’ roles often grow as the season progresses. That makes them the perfect backfill targets for best ball formats that have prize structures heavily based on the final few weeks of the season.
If you missed out on a quality tight end in the early rounds, then chasing quantity with multiple guys in the late rounds is your new strategy.
This is essentially my Tier 4 of tight ends, which ranges widely from TE15-TE32. As briefed in the Latest Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft, you don’t want to overextend yourself for any of these TEs because the production will likely be negligible at best, drafting toward the beginning of the tier versus the end. So just wait and take shots on multiple tight ends.
Ideally, ones with either a path for receiving volume, an every-down role, and/or above-average athleticism.
Chigoziem Okonkwo is by far my favorite late-round tight end to target. Other late-round tight options I like are Dalton Kincaid, Tyler Higbee, Mike Gesicki, Irv Smith and Juwan Johnson.
Among the late-round QBs, it’s critical that you draft knowing what their schedule is to open the season. Because they are non-established studs, you need to know they have plus-matchups working in their favor to trust them in your starting lineup.
Derek Carr, Russell Wilson, Jordan Love, Desmond Ridder and Geno Smith all have decent schedules to open the season based on matchups alone.
My favorite late-round quarterback options include Geno Smith, Anthony Richardson, Derek Carr, Kenny Pickett, Jordan Love and Mac Jones.
And finally, is addressing late-round running backs. Do not handcuff your running backs in traditional formats, where you have access to the waiver wire. However, you do want to handcuff your RBs in the best ball format. A No. 2 RB filling in for an injured starter who got you to the playoffs could be your key to victory in Week 17.
Other things to keep in mind:
- Identify running backs with the potential to see/possess goal-line roles in high-scoring offenses. Pinpointing a team’s primary red-zone back is an easy way to hit on a fantasy running back.
- If you are fading the “starter,” you should naturally be higher on one of their backups.
- Target impending free agent running backs. Notable free agents at the end of the 2023 season include Derrick Henry, Austin Ekeler, D’Andre Swift, Jonathan Taylor, Cam Akers, J.K. Dobbins, A.J. Dillon and Antonio Gibson. Joe Mixon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire have club options in their contracts.
- Aim for running backs on teams who have no clear-cut starter — ambiguous backfields. This is where breakout running backs are often found.
Outside the top 100 ADP, my favorite running backs include Rashaad Penny, Damien Harris, Antonio Gibson, Kendre Miller, Roschon Johnson, Jaylen Warren and Chuba Hubbard.
Rounds 10 and Beyond Takeaways:
- Consider “what if” scenarios for late-round players, focusing on their range of outcomes.
- Target talented players who are discounted due to their situations.
- Don’t overvalue early-season opportunities versus talent.
- Target players who can benefit from injuries to teammates.
- Look for late-round WRs who have commanded a high end of their team’s air yards or have high aDOTs.
- Be aggressive in drafting rookies, especially rookie WRs.
- If you missed out on a quality TE early, target multiple TEs in the late rounds.
- Consider late-round QBs with favorable early-season schedules.
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