Dynasty Rookie Draft Advice: Ray Davis, Isaac Guerendo, Braelon Allen (2024 Fantasy Football)

The 2024 NFL Draft has come and gone. While the real NFL draft is over, the fantasy football drafts are just beginning! That’s especially true when it comes to dynasty rookie drafts. NFL Draft landing spots allow us to start to zero in on fantasy football and dynasty rookie draft pick values. Let’s dive into our dynasty rookie draft outlook and advice for a few rookies.

Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Outlook

Here’s what Fitz expects for a few rookies selected during the 2024 NFL Draft.

Bills Draft Ray Davis

The Buffalo Bills have selected Re’Mahn “Ray” Davis with the 28th pick of the fourth round.

Davis had a five-year college career that took him from Temple to Vanderbilt to Kentucky, so he’s a somewhat overaged prospect who’ll turn 25 in November. He capped off his college carer with a fine 2023 season for Kentucky, rushing for 1,129 yards and 14 touchdowns, with 33 receptions for 323 yards and seven touchdowns.

The 5-8, 211-pound Davis is a tough, hard-nosed runner with good vision and quick feet that keep pumping through contact. He’s dangerous on cutbacks, using his lateral agility to find open space. Davis has also displayed utility as a pass catcher with 62 receptions and 10 TD catches over his final two college seasons.

Davis clocked a 4.52 at the combine, so he isn’t especially fast for a smaller back. He can also be too much of an east-west runner at times. While Davis is a capable pass catcher, questions about his pass blocking could keep him off the field on obvious passing downs.

Buffalo is a nice landing spot for Davis. He’s not going to leapfrog lead RB James Cook early on, but Cook is a smaller back who could use a tag-team partner in the backfield. The Bills had an amalgam of veteran backups behind Cook last year, including Latavius Murray, who’s now 34. I think it’s fair to say Davis has the inside track on the No. 2 job.

I have Davis ranked RB6 among the rookie RB prospects and RB40 in my overall dynasty rankings.

For redraft, Davis had a predraft FantasyPros Expert Consensus Ranking of RB70 in half-point PPR redraft leagues and an Underdog best-ball ADP of RB54. He’s a good value at those rummage-sale prices.

Check out his full dynasty rookie draft profile

49ers Draft Isaac Guerendo

The San Francisco 49ers have selected RB Isaac Guerendo of Louisville with the 29th pick of the fourth round.

Guerendo grabbed the attention of fantasy managers and hardcore football fans when he clocked a 4.33 at the NFL Scouting Combine at 6-0, 221 pounds. A remarkable athletic specimen, Guerendo posted a Relative Athletic Score of 9.97, one of the five best RAS numbers recorded by a running back since 1987.

As amazing as Guerendo’s testing numbers are, his college resume is light. He spent four years at Wisconsin, where he was buried on the depth chart, first behind Jonathan Taylor, then behind Braelon Allen. He spent his final college season at Louisville, where he shared work and had 132 carries for 810 yards and 11 touchdowns, along with 22 catches for 234 yards.

Unfortunately, there doesn’t appear to be much of a path to fantasy relevance for Guerendo in his rookie year, with Christian McCaffrey entrenched as the 49ers’ do-everything lead back and Elijah Mitchell as CMC’s backup. But Guerendo is still an intriguing longer-term play in dynasty leagues.

I have Guerendo ranked RB13 among rookies, with an overall dynasty ranking of RB67.

Check out his full dynasty rookie draft profile

Jets Draft Braelon Allen

The New York Jets have added the most imposing physical specimen among this year’s rookie running backs, drafting Wisconsin’s Braelon Allen with the 134th overall pick.

Allen measured 6-1, 235 pounds at the NFL Scouting Combine but probably played at closer to 240-245 pounds during his college career. He chose not to run the 40-yard dash at either the combine or his pro day, but Allen’s game really isn’t about straight-line speed anyway.

As a 17-year-old freshman, Allen ran for 1,268 yards and 12 touchdowns. He had another 1,200-yard season as a sophomore, scoring 11 touchdowns. Allen’s third and final season at Wisconsin was a mild letdown: He finished with 984 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns in 11 games.

Allen might not be fast, but he has quick feet and good lateral agility for a big man. And while he’s not as punishing a runner as he could be at his size, Allen isn’t going to be brought down by an arm tackle either.

It’s worth underscoring how productive Allen was at a young age, pounding out a 1,200-yard rushing season for a Big Ten team at an age when most kids are finishing up high school. Allen is the youngest player in this draft class at any position, and yet he had more 100-yard rushing games in college (20) than any other player in this class.

As noted earlier, Allen isn’t ultra-physical for a bigger back. He’s an upright runner, which leads to hard shots that occasionally force Allen to leave the game. He had some ball-security issues in college, coughing up nine fumbles during his three seasons in Madison. And while Allen has decent hands, he’s probably not going to get much usage as a pass catcher in the NFL since he’s not particularly effective in space.

It’s hard to imagine Allen getting significant playing time as a rookie behind Breece Hall, one of the best running backs in the league. It’s not even clear whether Allen will be Hall’s primary backup, since the Jets also have intriguing young RB Israel Abanikanda, a fifth-round pick last year.

Allen’s predraft FantasyPros Expert Consensus Ranking in half-point PPR redraft leagues was RB51, with an Underdog best-ball ADP of RB46. I tentatively have Allen ranked RB66 for redraft. He’ll likely be an afterthought in redraft leagues this year.

I now have Allen ranked RB9 among rookies, with an overall dynasty ranking of RB48. Allen could eventually have some fantasy utility as an early-down thumper whose big body gives him appealing goal-line potential. But the majority of dynasty leagues are full-point PPR, and Allen’s limited ceiling as a pass catcher might put a tight lid on his dynasty value.

Check out his full dynasty rookie draft profile