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The Primer: Week 2 Edition (2024 Fantasy Football)

The Primer: Week 2 Edition (2024 Fantasy Football)
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Did anyone have the same experience I did when I opened my fantasy football apps Tuesday morning?

You look through all your teams, and after the insanity that unfolded in Week 1, you wonder to yourself, “Did any of my players have a good game in Week 1?” It was a week that was filled with utter insanity. Some players that we thought were never coming back to fantasy football prominence (staring at you, J.K. Dobbins) immediately smashed out the gate while other players that we were depending on to lead our squads fell flat (why’d you hurt me, Marvin Harrison Jr...sigh).

Well, we’re back for another week of surprises, carnage, and triumph. If you somehow missed the Week 1 edition of the Primer, I want to mention again that moving forward, we will have a new format (see my intro for the Week 1 Primer for the details) in place to streamline your weekly reading experience.

Welcome to the Week 2 Primer. Enjoy.

BUF vs. MIA | LV vs. BAL | NO vs. DAL | LAC vs. CAR | TB vs. DET | IND vs. GB | SF vs. MIN | NYJ vs. TEN | SEA vs. NE | CLE vs. JAC | NYG vs. WAS | LAR vs. ARI | CIN vs. KC | PIT vs. DEN | CHI vs. HOU | ATL vs. PHI

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Fantasy Football Primer

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Baltimore Ravens

Pace and playcalling notes

  • Baltimore blazed a trail in Week 1, ranking first in neutral pace and fifth in neutral passing rate.
  • Last week, Las Vegas had the fifth-slowest neutral pace while sitting at 17th in neutral passing rate.

Raiders Players & Weekly Rankings

Ravens Players & Weekly Rankings

Lamar Jackson QB QB1
Derrick Henry RB RB1/2
Justice Hill RB RB4
Zay Flowers WR WR3
Rashod Bateman WR WR5
Mark Andrews TE TE1
Isaiah Likely TE TE1/2

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Derrick Henry (RB)

Henry finished Week 1 with a disappointing 13 carries and 46 rushing yards. His touchdown saved his fantasy day, but his 46% snap rate and lack of pass-game involvement were concerning. Henry only played 33.3% of the passing down snaps as Justice Hill gobbled up all the passing game work. Unless this changes, Henry will be an extremely game script-dependent back for 2024. Henry only forced missed tackles on 8% of his rushing attempts with 1.77 yards after contact per attempt in Week 1. Neither of these numbers are fantastic by any stretch of the imagination, but let’s keep it real. It was one game, so don’t hit the panic button just yet. The Ravens are heavy favorites this week, so Henry should get more work in Week 2. If the Raiders are as bad as their Week 1 showing as a run defense, they could be in trouble this year. Las Vegas allowed 176 rushing yards (fourth-most) while also giving up the ninth-highest explosive run rate and the 13th-highest yards after contact per attempt. This looks like a good venue for Baltimore to get this offensive line and Henry going.

Davante Adams (WR)

Adams walks out of Week 1 as the WR37 in fantasy scoring with an interesting market share profile. Against the Chargers, he had an 18.2% target share, a 41.1% air-yard share, 1.69 YPRR, and a 30% first-read share. While Adams led the team in first read rate, he was behind Brock Bowers in target share. There’s no world where Adams should be behind anyone on this team in market share. I get Bowers was an amazing prospect, but this should never happen in 2024. We should see this normalized moving forward, possibly as soon as Week 2. The matchup for Adams is tough, though. Last week, Baltimore utilized Marlon Humphrey in the slot, but he could be pushed back to the boundary this week with Adams running on the perimeter. Adams will match up with Brandon Stephens (2023: 63.6% catch rate and 82.4 passer rating) and Marlon Humphrey (2023: 52.5% catch rate and 69.2 passer rating) all day.

Zay Flowers (WR)

Flowers’ Week 1 usage was quite similar to his 2023 season. Baltimore still funneled underneath looks to him with a 6.1 aDOT and a 40% designed target rate. Overall, Flowers had a 24.4% target share, a 20.8% air-yard share, 0.79 YPRR, and a 30.4% first-read share. The yards per route run jumps off the page, but the Chiefs were clamping down on these underneath passes all game with increasing success as the game moved along. Flowers could find more success with the short passes in Week 2, though, against a defense that had the 11th-most missed tackles last year while also giving up the third-most yards after the catch. Flowers will run about 76% of his routes against Jakorian Bennett (2023: 65.6% catch rate and 102.3 passer rating) and Jack Jones (2023: 60.6% catch rate and 68.1 passer rating).

Rashod Bateman (WR)

Bateman only saw a 12.2% target share and an 8.7% first-read share in Week 1 as the team’s downfield weapon. He did soak up a 23.6 aDOT with a 40.3% air-yard share, which could come in handy this week if you’re looking for some sneaky ceiling from your flex. In Week 1, the Raiders utilized single-high on 53.8% of their defensive snaps. Last year, while the counting stats weren’t there for Bateman, that doesn’t mean he wasn’t good against single high. Among 112 qualifying wide receivers, he ranked tenth in separation score and 12th in route win rate. If Lamar Jackson is looking for big plays downfield in Week 2, expect Bateman to be the receiver he turns to. Bateman will run about 90% of his routes against Jakorian Bennett (2023: 65.6% catch rate and 102.3 passer rating) and Jack Jones (2023: 60.6% catch rate and 68.1 passer rating).

Mark Andrews (TE)

Isaiah Likely and Andrews’ usages were flipped last week. Andrews had a 70% route run clip, with 72% of his snaps coming from the slot, so it’s not like he wasn’t out there. Unlike Flowers, though, Andrews didn’t have any designed targets. Andrews finished with a 4.9% target share and an 8.7% first-read share. I don’t see either of these metrics continuing as his norm moving forward unless there’s an injury or underlying reason that hasn’t been shared publicly by the team. The Raiders utilized single high on 53.8% of their defensive snaps in Week 1. Last year, Andrews was second on the team in target share (18.5%) and first-read share (20.3%) against a single high. Last year against single-high, among 40 qualifying tight ends, Andrews ranked fifth in separation score and second in route win rate. Last season, the Raiders allowed the ninth-most receptions to tight ends while ranking 17th in fantasy points allowed to slot tight ends.

Brock Bowers (TE)

In Week 1, Bowers led the team with a 24.2% target share, 2.0 YPRR, and 0.103 FD/RR while ranking second in first-read share (25%). He finished the week as the TE3 in fantasy while running 55.2% of his routes from the slot with a 72.5% route run rate. Bowers has a tough matchup incoming, but his target volume and usage will keep him among the TE1 ranks. Last year, Baltimore allowed the 10th-lowest yards per reception, the second-fewest receiving touchdowns, and the ninth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends.

Isaiah Likely (TE)

Likely went bonkers in Week 1 with a 29.3% target share, a 38.2% air-yard share, and 3.58 yards per route run. His 26.1 fantasy points will likely be a season-high, but we can’t dismiss Likely’s usage. He will remain involved heavily in this offense, but these market share numbers aren’t sustainable unless Andrews isn’t as healthy as we’ve been led to believe. Likely only had a 60.8% route participation. The Raiders utilized single high on 53.8% of their defensive snaps in Week 1. Last year against single-high, among 40 qualifying tight ends, Likely ranked eighth in separation score and 11th in route win rate. Last season, the Raiders allowed the ninth-most receptions to tight ends while ranking 17th in fantasy points allowed to slot tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 2 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players that are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Zamir White (RB)

White’s Week 1 stat line was sobering. White played only 38% of the snaps, with 15 touches and 46 total yards. He only posted an 8% missed tackles forced per attempt rate and 2.0 yards after contact per attempt, but let’s not freak out after one week. His 2024 tackle-breaking numbers as the starter were solid. It was more concerning that he conceded the passing downs to Alexander Mattison, who played 73% of the passing down snaps. White did have a stranglehold on the early down work with a 68% snap rate on rushing plays. On paper, White’s rushing matchup against Baltimore doesn’t look imposing. Last week, Baltimore ranked 15th in explosive run rate allowed and stuff rate while giving up the fifth-most missed tackles per attempt. A lot of these numbers track with their 2023 performance, as the Ravens allowed the 13th-highest explosive run rate and the eighth-highest missed tackles per attempt last year. The biggest concern for White isn’t the rushing matchup but rather getting game scripted out like last week.

Justice Hill (RB)

This doesn’t project as a big Hill game unless the Raiders can surprise and keep this game close or take the lead for much of Week 2. Last week, Hill had a 54% snap rate while finishing with seven touches and 55 total yards, with the bulk of that coming through the air. Hill played on 66% of the passing downs while only seeing a 17% snap rate on rushing plays. If Baltimore is able to control this game which is what the current spread projects, Hill won’t see the field much. The Raiders did allow the sixth-most receptions to running backs last year, but they also held the position to the seventh-lowest yards per reception. Sit Hill this week.

Jakobi Meyers (WR)

Meyers isn’t in consideration for fantasy lineups until his volume increases or this passing offense looks like it can support multiple weapons. Meyers was productive with the volume he earned with 1.97 YPRR, but he only had a 9.1% target share and a 10% first-read share; even with his 13.7 aDOT, that’s just not good enough. Hold him in deeper leagues if you need the wide receiver depth, but he’s a cut candidate in shallow or normal 12-team leagues.

BUF vs. MIA | LV vs. BAL | NO vs. DAL | LAC vs. CAR | TB vs. DET | IND vs. GB | SF vs. MIN | NYJ vs. TEN | SEA vs. NE | CLE vs. JAC | NYG vs. WAS | LAR vs. ARI | CIN vs. KC | PIT vs. DEN | CHI vs. HOU | ATL vs. PHI

New Orleans Saints vs. Dallas Cowboys

Pace and playcalling notes

  • Against Carolina, New Orleans ranked 18th in neutral pace and 14th in neutral passing rate.
  • In Week 1, Dallas was 13th in neutral pace and 10th in neutral passing rate.

Saints Players & Weekly Rankings

Derek Carr QB QB2
Alvin Kamara RB RB1/2
Jamaal Williams RB RB5
Chris Olave WR WR2
Rashid Shaheed WR WR3/4
Juwan Johnson TE TE2
Taysom Hill TE TE2

Cowboys Players & Weekly Rankings

Dak Prescott QB QB2
Rico Dowdle RB RB3/4
Ezekiel Elliott RB RB3/4
CeeDee Lamb WR WR1
Brandin Cooks WR WR3/4
Jalen Tolbert WR WR6/7
Jake Ferguson TE TBD

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Alvin Kamara (RB)

Kamara walked away from Week 1 with a wonderful stat line as the RB6 for the week. He played 52% of the snaps (influenced by the blowout) with 20 touches and 110 total yards. While all of that is amazing, it could be false window dressing. Kamara’s per-touch efficiency was frightening, with only a 7% missed tackles per attempt rate and 1.93 yards after contact per attempt. Kamara’s tackle-breaking metrics were horrendous last year as well, so this isn’t just me freaking out over a one-game sample. Kamara could struggle to find room to operate this week against a Dallas run defense that allowed the 13th-lowest explosive run rate; the second-lowest missed tackles per attempt, and the 10th-lowest yards after contact per attempt last year.

Chris Olave (WR)

Olave’s Week 1 was among the biggest unexpected flops of the fantasy landscape. His 8.3% target share, 5.6% air-yard share, and 11.1% first-read share were surprising. The data backs up his rough Week 1 outing. Among 104 qualifying wide receivers, he ranked 55th in route win rate. That’s not a coffin nail, but it’s not what we expected entering this season. Considering Olave is in the prime of his career, and he ranked 24th in YPRR and 16th in FD/RR last year, I’m willing to write off his Week 1 performance, but it deserves monitoring. This week could be more of the same for Olave against Dallas’s new look two high defense. In Week 1, they ranked tenth in two high rate (50.9%). Last year, among 104 qualifying receivers, Olave ranked 49th in separation and 51st in win rate against two-high. Last year against two high, Olave had a 19.4% target share, a 35.6% air-yard share, 1.45 YPRR (yikes!), and a 27.6% first-read share. Olave will run about 76% of his routes against Trevon Diggs (66.7% catch rate and 30.6 passer rating) and Caelen Carson (55.6% catch rate and 105.8 passer rating).

Brandin Cooks (WR)

Cooks finished Week 1 as the WR21 in fantasy with the touchdown he scored doing much of the lifting there. Cooks did have a 21.8% target share, a 28.1% air-yard share, 1.60 YPRR, and a 24% first-read share. All of these are solid statistics from a volume standpoint. Last year, New Orleans had a 53.9% rate of single-high. That climbed to 66.7% in Week 1, which was the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. Last year, Cooks had a 19% TPRR, 1.79 YPRR, and a 17.3% first read-share (second-best on the team) against single-high. Cooks will run about 77% of his routes against Paulson Adebo (2023: 56.8% catch rate and 69.9 passer rating) and Kool-Aid McKinstry (2024: 66.7% catch rate and 109.7 passer rating).

Jake Ferguson (TE)

Ferguson hasn’t practiced all week and has been listed as doubtful (knee). It’s only a matter of time before he’s ruled out for Week 2.

Fantasy Football Week 2 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players that are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Dak Prescott (QB)

I’m not taking much away from Prescott’s QB22 fantasy finish in Week 1 with the tough matchup and the route by Dallas. Prescott remains a talented/elite quarterback who ranked eighth in yards per attempt, second in CPOE, and fifth in fantasy points per dropback last year. I do expect more QB2 numbers for Prescott in Week 2, though. New Orleans remains a stout pass defense. In Week 1, they destroyed Bryce Young, allowing only 5.1 yards per attempt, a 0:2 passing touchdown to interception ratio, and a 31.8 passer rating. Last year it was much of the same for quarterbacks as the Saints allowed the tenth-lowest yards per attempt, the fourth-lowest CPOE, and the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.

Derek Carr (QB)

Carr was objectively awesome on paper in Week 1. As the QB6 in fantasy, he was sixth in yards per attempt, first in CPOE, second in passer rating and fifth in fantasy points per dropback. I was expecting a jump for the Saints offense under Klint Kubiak, but I wasn’t expecting this. Yes, I know it was against Carolina, but it still has to be mentioned. Carr could stack back-to-back surprising outings against Dallas. Yes, I know this was one of the top pass defenses in the NFL last year, and they crushed the Browns in Week 1. Let’s get this out of the way, though. Deshaun Watson is one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL as he was last year when under center, so I take their stomping of the Browns’ offense with a grain of salt. Digging deeper, Dallas was only 20th in CPOE, and their pass rush wasn’t impressive. They allowed the ninth-highest time to throw while applying only a 10.7% pressure rate, as they didn’t blitz at all. Carolina only managed to pressure Carr on 27.4% of his dropbacks last week (second-lowest rate). I know there’s a big difference in pass rush quality, but we could be overrating Dallas’s ability to bring pressure here with only Micah Parsons striking fear in the Saints’ hearts. Carr could post solid numbers again in Week 2.

Ezekiel Elliott (RB)

Elliott split the work essentially evenly with Rico Dowdle in Week 1. Elliott played 51% of the snaps with 12 touches and 49 total yards. He saw the only red zone touch for the Dallas backfield. I don’t know how long Elliott will retain his hold on half this backfield if his Week 1 efficiency numbers stay this bad. He was stuffed on 60% of his runs with zero missed tackles forced and only 1.80 yards after contact per attempt. This looks like a matchup to run away from for Elliott in fantasy. Last week, New Orleans allowed zero explosive runs, only a 10% missed tackle rate, and 1.40 yards after contact per attempt. This lines up with their numbers last year, as the Saints were 17th in explosive run rate with the 11th-highest stuff rate and the fifth-lowest rushing touchdown rate allowed. Sit Elliott.

Rico Dowdle (RB)

Dowdle was the 1B in this backfield last week with 44% of the snaps, nine touches, and 32 total yards. The blowout nature of last week’s game does kind of distort the numbers, but Dowdle’s per-touch efficiency wasn’t much better than Elliott’s, but it was better. Dowdle also didn’t have an explosive run or missed tackle forced while also being stuffed on 50% of his runs with 2.13 yards after contact per attempt. Dowdle is also a sit this week in a terrible matchup for the Dallas ground game. Last week, New Orleans allowed zero explosive runs, only a 10% missed tackle rate, and 1.40 yards after contact per attempt. This lines up with their numbers last year, as the Saints were 17th in explosive run rate with the 11th-highest stuff rate and the fifth-lowest rushing touchdown rate allowed.

Jalen Tolbert (WR)

This is an easy matchup to shy away from Tolbert this week. In Week 1, Tolbert only had a 60% route run rate with a 6.3% target share and 10% TPRR. Until he gets a better matchup, more routes, and is able to draw more targets, Tolbert will remain a sit. New Orleans allowed the second-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers last year (Week 1 Tolbert 76% on the perimeter).

Rashid Shaheed (WR)

Shaheed finished Week 1 as the WR15 in fantasy points per game while leading the team with a 20.8% target share with a 42.7% air-yard share, 4.29 YPRR, and a 22.2% first-read share. Among 104 qualifying wide receivers, he ranked 15th in separation. This isn’t the week to look at Shaheed as a high-end flex option, though, against Dallas’s new look two high defense. In Week 1, they ranked tenth in two high rate (50.9%). Last year, against two high, he drew a 12.9% target share with 1.36 YPRR and a 15.4% first-read share. Among 104 qualifying wide receivers last year against the coverage, Shaheed ranked 73rd in separation and 83rd in route win rate. Shaheed will run about 61% of his routes against Trevon Diggs (66.7% catch rate and 30.6 passer rating) and Caelen Carson (55.6% catch rate and 105.8 passer rating).

Taysom Hill (TE)

Hill is the ultimate tight-end dice roll. Last week, he played 32% of the snaps with six touches and 36 total yards. He didn’t register a red zone touch or target. I won’t rule out Hill finishing as a TE1 in any week, as he managed to do so seven times and was the TE15 in fantasy points per game last year.

Juwan Johnson (TE)

Last week, Johnson got into the end zone and finished as the TE5 in fantasy points per game, but he will not be startable until his usage increases. While he drew a red zone target and successfully converted it last week, the rest of his profile is lacking. Johnson had only a 42.3% route run rate, a 12.5% target share (three targets), and an 11.1% first-read share. None of these usage or market share metrics scream, “I MUST START Juwan Johnson!.” Considering the state of the tight end position after one week of NFL action, he’s fine to hold on a roster if you have the space, but if you need it for a sexy waiver wire add, I don’t mind cutting him from your squad.

BUF vs. MIA | LV vs. BAL | NO vs. DAL | LAC vs. CAR | TB vs. DET | IND vs. GB | SF vs. MIN | NYJ vs. TEN | SEA vs. NE | CLE vs. JAC | NYG vs. WAS | LAR vs. ARI | CIN vs. KC | PIT vs. DEN | CHI vs. HOU | ATL vs. PHI

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Carolina Panthers

Pace and playcalling notes

  • The Chargers opened the season ranking 12th in neural pace with the 12th-highest neutral rushing rate.
  • The Panthers were blown out last week and ran only one play in a neutral script. Overall, they ranked first in offensive pace and fifth in passing rate.

Chargers Players & Weekly Rankings

Panthers Players & Weekly Rankings

Bryce Young QB QB2
Chuba Hubbard RB RB3
Miles Sanders RB RB4/5
Diontae Johnson WR WR3/4
Xavier Legette WR WR7
Adam Thielen WR WR6/7
Ja’Tavion Sanders TE TE2/3

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

  • N/A

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

J.K. Dobbins (RB)

Dobbins stepped in and became the immediate workhorse for the Bolts. In Week 1, he played 58% of the snaps with 13 touches and 139 total yards. He ran 17 routes versus Gus Edwards‘ six routes. Dobbins also crushed in efficiency metrics. Among 34 qualifying backs in Week 1, he was fifth in missed tackles forced per attempt and seventh in yards after contact per attempt. I was so skeptical that Dobbins could return from the myriad of injuries that have crushed him over the last few years, but he made a huge step toward doing so in Week 1. Shout out to Andrew Erickson, who screamed at people all offseason to draft Dobbins. After one game, he looks incredibly right about this call. Dobbins should steamroll a Panthers run defense that was crushed in Week 1 by the aging Alvin Kamara. In Week 1, Carolina had the eighth-lowest stuff rate while giving up the third-most rushing yards, the seventh-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 13th-highest yards before contact per attempt.

Diontae Johnson (WR)

The Panthers got the doors blown off by the Saints in Week 1, so it has muddied some of their usage metrics as the team sat players late. In the first half of their Week 1 contest, Johnson had a 33.3% target share, a 49.3% air-yard share, and a 37.5% first-read share. Those market share numbers are bonkers, but we can’t be surprised, considering Johnson’s talent and the receiver depth chart around him. Last year among 144 qualifying receives, Johnson ranked second in separation and first in route win rate. If the team can keep this game close, we should see Johnson fed in Week 2 against the Chargers two high coverage. In Week 1, the Bolts ranked fourth in two high usage (77.5%). Last year, Johnson was also amazing against two high, ranking second in separation and first in route win rate. Johnson will run about 67% of his routes against Asante Samuel Jr. (2023: 64.7% catch rate and 98.0 passer rating) and Kristian Fulton (2023: 72.5% catch rate and 129.3 passer rating).

Fantasy Football Week 2 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players that are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Justin Herbert (QB)

Herbert finished as the QB24 in his first game in this new-look Greg Roman offense. Herbert finished with QB2 numbers across the board in numerous categories. Among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, he was 24th in yards per attempt, 22nd in pass attempts, 28th in passing yards, and 20th in fantasy points per dropback. It was good to see him finish 10th in CPOE, but as we worried all offseason, his volume and the context of the offense could be a hindrance to his fantasy production. Luckily for Herbert, he faces a Carolina pass defense that was decimated by the Saints last week, and he is projected to be one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. Carolina allowed the seventh-highest yards per attempt and the second-highest passer rating and CPOE last week. Herbert is likely a QB2 again this week despite the wonderful matchup unless he runs hot with touchdowns. His four rushing attempts last week isn’t enough to compensate for the lost passing volume in fantasy.

Bryce Young (QB)

Until Young proves he can be at least a competent NFL quarterback, there’s no way I can start him in fantasy. Last week, Young was the QB21 in fantasy, but that’s only related to his rushing score, which accounted for 51.7% of his fantasy scoring in Week 1. Among 33 qualifying quarterbacks in Week 1, Young ranked 25th in yards per attempt, 33rd in passer rating and CPOE, and he had the second-highest off-target throw rate.

Chuba Hubbard (RB)

Hubbard is a low-end flex play that is best left on the bench this week. Last week, he played only 54% of the snaps with six touches and 14 total yards. He failed to force a missed tackle and only managed 1.50 yards after contact per attempt. The Chargers run defense was stout last year, and they continued that trend into 2024. Last week, the Bolts didn’t allow an explosive run while holding the fifth-best stuff rate and the fourth-lowest missed tackle mark in the NFL. Sit Hubbard.

Gus Edwards (RB)

Edwards is a touchdown-dependent flex play with a great matchup this week. Last week, he played 42% of the snaps, with 12 touches and 28 total yards. Edwards only ran six routes to Dobbins’ 17, so don’t expect any pass-game involvement for Edwards weekly. The sad thing for Edwards is that he is likely just keeping a seat warm for Kimani Vidal in this offense. Edwards didn’t manage one explosive run or one missed tackle in Week 1, with only 1.73 yards after contact per attempt. He could finish as an RB3 this week, though, if he falls into the end zone. In Week 1, Carolina had the eighth-lowest stuff rate while giving up the third-most rushing yards, the seventh-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 13th-highest yards before contact per attempt.

Ladd McConkey (WR)

McConkey exits Week 1 as the WR19 in fantasy points per game after scoring with his only end zone target. I don’t say that to diminish his Week 1 performance, but that’s what helped him in the fantasy scoring department, as he only managed five grabs and 39 receiving yards outside of it. He did command a strong market share with a 26.9% target share, a 25.8% air-yard share, and a 25% first-read share. He produced 1.86 YPRR with his 6.6 aDOT. His underneath targets will hurt his weekly upside unless he breaks one for a big gain. McConkey is a solid PPR flex that will run about 61% of his routes against Troy Hill (2023: 63.6% catch rate and 100.3 passer rating).

Joshua Palmer (WR)

Better days are ahead for Palmer. He led the team with a 96.4% route run rate with a 15.4% target share, a 25.3% air-yard share (11.3 aDOT), and an 8.3% first-read share. The first-read share isn’t great by any stretch of the imagination. He did struggle in Week 1 to gain consistent separation, but it’s a one-game sample, so I’m willing to give Palmer a mulligan. In Week 1, among 104 qualifying receivers, he ranked 54th in separation and 59th in route win rate. Last year, among 144 receivers, Palmer ranked 24th in separation and 23rd in route win rate. If you’re targeting a Bolts’ wide receiver to consider flexing this week, it’s McConkey, though, as Palmer’s matchup on the perimeter isn’t great. Palmer will run about 67% of his routes against Jaycee Horn (2023: 60.7% catch rate and 88.2 passer rating) and Mike Jackson (68.8% catch rate and 93.5 passer rating). Palmer was limited in practice on Wednesday and Thursday before missing Friday’s session (knee). He has been listed as questionable.

Adam Thielen (WR)

Until Young displays the ability to support at least one viable fantasy receiver, much less multiple, I won’t be starting any receiving options in this Carolina offense outside of Diontae Johnson. Thielen’s Week 1 showing doesn’t inspire any confidence either. In the first half, before the game got out of hand, he had only an 8.3% target share and a 15.9% air-yard share. In Week 1, among 104 qualifying receivers, he ranked 44th in separation and 77th in route win rate.

Xavier Legette (WR)

Until Young displays the ability to support at least one viable fantasy receiver, much less multiple, I won’t be starting any receiving options in this Carolina offense outside of Diontae Johnson. Legette also was splitting the WR3 role in Week 1 with Jonathan Mingo. In the first half, Legette only had a 58.8% route run rate. Young has to prove himself, and Legette has to earn the full-time starting role before we should consider plugging him into a fantasy lineup.

BUF vs. MIA | LV vs. BAL | NO vs. DAL | LAC vs. CAR | TB vs. DET | IND vs. GB | SF vs. MIN | NYJ vs. TEN | SEA vs. NE | CLE vs. JAC | NYG vs. WAS | LAR vs. ARI | CIN vs. KC | PIT vs. DEN | CHI vs. HOU | ATL vs. PHI

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