The final eight teams are set in the NFL. There are a pair of games on Saturday and two more on Sunday. The primary focus of this piece is the main slate and the classic contests, but there are also showdown picks. Since I’m taking a broad view of offensive and defensive tendencies, gamers entering all contest types and entering a modest number of teams or the maximum number of teams into contests should find value in this piece.
NFL Divisional Round DFS Picks & Predictions
Game: Chiefs vs. Texans
Spread/Total: KC -8.5/41.5 Points
- Main slate / Classic contest picks: Patrick Mahomes, Xavier Worthy, Travis Kelce, Marquise Brown, KC DST, Nico Collins, John Metchie, Dalton Schultz
- Top shelf showdown captains: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce
- Contrarian / Secondary showdown captains: Xavier Worthy, Marquise Brown, Nico Collins
- Flex showdown only: DeAndre Hopkins, Kareem Hunt, KC DST, Harrison Butker, Noah Gray, Samaje Perine, C.J. Stroud, Dalton Schultz, John Metchie, Robert Woods, Xavier Hutchinson
Kansas City’s starting skill-position players haven’t played since Christmas. They might need a series or two to shake off the rust. Nevertheless, they should be rejuvenated. Kansas City’s offense will likely run through Patrick Mahomes. According to RotoViz’s pace app, from Week 10 through Week 17, the Chiefs had a 65% situation-neutral pass rate, the second-highest mark during that period.
Kansas City’s offensive tendencies should be exacerbated by facing Houston. From Week 10 through the Wild Card Round, the Texans faced a 59% situation-neutral pass rate. When Mahomes takes to the air, Travis Kelce is a decent bet to be on the receiving end of many of his pass attempts. The veteran tight end’s regular-season production hasn’t matched his best years in recent seasons. However, Kelce hasn’t skipped a beat in the postseason. According to Pro Football Reference, in three games in the 2022 playoffs, Kelce had 9.0 receptions per game, 85.7 receiving yards per game and four touchdowns. In four games in the 2023 postseason, Kelce had 8.0 receptions per game, 88.8 receiving yards per game and three receiving touchdowns.
Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown are also intriguing stacking options with Mahomes or one-off choices. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, in Brown’s two healthy games (Week 16 and Week 17), Worthy was first on the Chiefs in route participation (79.8%), targets share (25.3%), first-read percentage (28.3%), receptions per game (7.5), receiving yards per game (72.0), receiving touchdowns (two) and expected fantasy points per game (19.3). Meanwhile, Brown had only a 41.7% route participation rate but was force-fed 0.43 targets per route run and a team-high 25.5% air yards share, producing 4.5 receptions and 45.5 receiving yards per game.
DeAndre Hopkins and Noah Gray are also intriguing picks on the showdown slate. Samaje Perine is a viable punt as Kansas City’s passing-down back, and Kareem Hunt could pay off on the showdown slate if he punches in a short touchdown and totes the rock to protect a lead late.
Nico Collins is Houston’s only high-upside pick, but Dalton Schultz and John Metchie are usable punts for the underdog Texans. Since Week 10, the Texans were tied for the second-highest situation-neutral pass rate, and the Chiefs were tied for the fourth-highest situation-neutral pass rate (61%) against them.
In Houston’s last two meaningful contests (Week 17 and the Wild Card Round), Collins had a 40.6% air yards share, 34.4% first-read percentage, 5.0 receptions per game, 90.5 receiving yards per game and one touchdown reception. Schultz and Metchie were second and third in route participation at 76.6% and 71.4%, respectively. Metchie had 4.5 receptions per game and 38.0 receiving yards per game. Schultz had just 2.0 receptions per game and 22.0 receiving yards per game. However, Schultz has a favorable matchup. According to Pro Football Reference, the Chiefs allowed the fourth-most DraftKings and the sixth-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends in the regular season. Robert Woods and Xavier Hutchinson are also defensible punts in showdown contests, especially for gamers attempting to maximize the salary they can spend on the Chiefs in Kansas City onslaught lineups.
Game: Lions vs. Commanders
Spread/Total: DET -9.5/55.5 Points
- Main slate / Classic contest picks: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, DET DST, Olamide Zaccheaus, Dyami Brown
- Top shelf showdown captains: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jayden Daniels
- Contrarian / Secondary showdown captains: Jared Goff, Jameson Williams, David Montgomery, Sam LaPorta, Terry McLaurin
- Flex showdown only: DET DST, Tim Patrick, Kalif Raymond, Austin Ekeler, Zach Ertz, Olamide Zaccheaus, Dyami Brown
The Lions are coming off a bye in the Wild Card Round, and this game has the highest total on the four-game slate. The game is also the only one indoors, further enhancing the appeal. However, Detroit is a commanding 9.5-point favorite, the largest spread on the slate. As a result, I’m less bullish than the optimizer about Washington’s high-salaried options (i.e., Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin).
Instead, I prefer to lean into Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown among Detroit’s high-salaried players, and Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta as mid-salaried exposure to their sky-high implied total. In Detroit’s previous nine games, they had a balanced offense, with a 52% situation-neutral pass rate.
Gibbs might cede some opportunities to the returning David Montgomery. However, the second-year pro might have performed too well at the end of the year to allow Montgomery to turn the backfield into more than 65% to 35% split with the more explosive Gibbs as the A-side. In three games without Montgomery to close the regular season, Gibbs had 154, 163 and 170 scrimmage yards with one, one and four touchdowns. He also reeled in four, four and five receptions. Gibbs should smash for the favored Lions.
The Sun God, Williams and LaPorta should be the apples of Jared Goff‘s eye through the air. In nine games at home this year, ARSB had 7.0 receptions per game, 81.2 receiving yards per game, five receiving touchdowns and one passing touchdown. Williams is a home-run hitter, and LaPorta played his best ball down the stretch. Lions-leaning and Lions-onslaught lineups are my preferred roster construction in showdown slates.
Circling back to classic contests, cheap exposure to Washington’s ancillary wide receivers is interesting. Detroit allowed the second-most DraftKings and the fifth-most FanDuel points per game to wide receivers in the regular season. In Washington’s past three games, Olamide Zaccheaus (66.4% route participation rate) and Dyami Brown (45.0% route participation rate) were third and fourth on the Commanders in route participation. Zaccheaus had 0.20 targets per route run, and Brown had 0.25 targets per route run. Their rock-solid roles can allow them to clear the low bar of providing value at their low salaries.
The Commanders have had only a 51% situation-neutral pass rate since Week 10. Yet, Brian Robinson‘s ineffectiveness as a runner to close the regular season and the game’s large spread don’t inspire confidence in him on showdown slates. Instead, pass-catching running back Austin Ekeler is more desirable. Daniels and McLaurin are also elite picks on the showdown slate, and Zach Ertz is a superb flex-only pick.
Game: Eagles vs. Rams
Spread/Total: PHI -6.0/44.0 Points
- Main slate / Classic contest picks: Saquon Barkley, PHI DST, Puka Nacua, LAR DST
- Top shelf showdown captains: Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts
- Contrarian / Secondary showdown captain: A.J. Brown, Puka Nacua
- Flex showdown only: DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, PHI DST, Jahan Dotson, Kenneth Gainwell, Kyren Williams, Matthew Stafford, Tyler Higbee, Demarcus Robinson
Only two superstars and the defenses are featured among the suggested picks for classic contests. Frankly, I’m not optimistic about the Rams keeping up with the Eagles. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, in Los Angeles’s last six meaningful games (Week 13 through Week 17 and the Wild Card Round), they’ve allowed 100.5 rushing yards per game, 4.60 yards per carry, three rushing touchdowns, a 4.6% explosive run percentage, 0.18 missed tackles forced per attempt and had only a 40.8% stuff percentage. Their inability to bottle up the run doesn’t bode well for them against Philadelphia’s run-heavy offense and Saquon Barkley.
Since Week 10, the Eagles have had a 51% situation-neutral rush rate. Furthermore, Barkley gashed the Rams for a season-high 255 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, four receptions and 47 receiving yards in Week 12. Barkley had a monstrous season, eclipsing 2,000 rushing yards in 16 games, and he started the postseason with a bang, gashing the Packers for 119 rushing yards, two receptions and four receiving yards. Green Bay’s run defense was more formidable than Los Angeles’s.
The Eagles will likely feed Barkley until the Rams prove they can stop him, and I’m not sure they can. As a result, I’m only interested in Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert and Philadelphia’s modest contributors in showdown contests, where Eagles-leaning or Eagles-onslaught lineups are my favorite constructions.
Since Week 10, the Rams have had a 51% situation-neutral pass rate. In that period, the Eagles faced a 46% situation-neutral rush rate. So, Kyren Williams is a potentially useful pick in showdown contests. Yet, the game’s spread renders Williams an unappetizing pick in classic contests. Matthew Stafford and secondary passing weapons Tyler Higbee and Demarcus Robinson are also showdown-only picks.
However, Puka Nacua is a DFS-friendly pick in all contest types. The second-year pro left Week 1 early with an injury. Fortunately, Nacua was a monster after his return. In Nacua’s 11 games after returning from his injury, he had the following stats.
- 80.1% route participation rate
- 33.0% air yards share
- 31.5% target share
- 0.38 targets per route run
- 39.4% first-read percentage
- 80 receptions (7.3 per game)
- 999 receiving yards (90.8 per game)
- 3.44 yards per route run
- three touchdowns
- 18.4 expected fantasy points per game
Nacua even overcame the challenge of the first matchup against the Eagles, tallying 13 targets, nine receptions and 117 receiving yards. He’s not a must-use player in classic contests. Still, gamers entering multiple lineups in GPPs should mix Nacua into their portfolio.
Game: Bills vs. Ravens
Spread/Total: BAL -1.0/51.5 Points
- Main slate / Classic contest picks: Josh Allen, James Cook, Khalil Shakir, Ty Johnson, Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, Curtis Samuel, Derrick Henry, Lamar Jackson, Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely
- Top shelf showdown captain: Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry
- Contrarian / Secondary showdown captains: Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Mark Andrews
- Flex showdown only: James Cook, Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, Ty Johnson, Mack Hollins, Dawson Knox, Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely, Justice Hill, Nelson Agholor
The Ravens boat raced the Bills in Week 4. Baltimore was flying high at home on Sunday Night Football, feeding Derrick Henry to their heart’s content. King Henry opened the game with an untouched 87-yard touchdown run as part of a massive effort. Henry had 199 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, three receptions, 10 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown. Lamar Jackson had an efficient game, completing 13 of 18 passes for 156 yards and two touchdowns while adding 54 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown.
Both have sky-high ceilings in the rematch, but Buffalo’s defense should be more formidable this time. Starting linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard and starting nickel Taron Johnson were out in Week 4. They’re unlikely to slow down the unstoppable King Henry entirely, but simply copying and pasting the results from the first matchup is unwise, saying nothing of the betting info and the game being in Buffalo providing other reasons to expect a more competitive contest this time around.
Still, gamers should expect the Ravens to attempt to bully the Bills on the ground. Since Week 10, Baltimore’s 54% situation-neutral rush rate was the second-highest mark in the NFL. Obviously, Jackson is also a part of their potent rushing attack, and offensive coordinator Todd Monken used his dual-threat quarterback’s legs on plenty of designed runs against the Steelers in the Wild Card Round. The Bills were tied for facing the fourth-highest situation-neutral rush rate (47%) since Week 10. So, Henry and Jackson should be heavily utilized on the ground.
However, Jackson could succeed through the air if the Bills sold out to stop the run. Jackson averaged a career-high 245.4 passing yards per game and set a career-high with 41 passing touchdowns in the regular season.
Zay Flowers was Baltimore’s No. 1 wide receiver in the regular season. However, he’s trending toward missing this week. The second-year wide receiver hasn’t practiced this week. Even if Flowers isn’t ruled out, his lack of practice participation and the possibility of an in-game setback or being utilized as a decoy make him an unappealing pick in all game types.
Mark Andrews had a slow start to the year but found his footing starting in Week 5. Since Week 5, he’s had 0.23 targets per route run, 51 receptions (3.6 per game), 635 receiving yards (45.4 per game), 2.31 yards per route run, nine end zone targets, nine touchdowns on the end zone targets and 11 receiving touchdowns overall.
Rashod Bateman had a breakout campaign and could also see an uptick in usage without Flowers. He had a 15.0-yard average depth of target (aDOT), 24.0% air yards share, team-high 10 end zone targets, 47 receptions (2.6 per game), 780 receiving yards (43.3 per game) and 10 receiving touchdowns this season. Bateman is a big-play threat with a nose for the end zone.
Isaiah Likely could benefit the most if Flowers is out. The third-year pro had just a 52.0% route participation rate but efficiently tallied 0.22 targets per route run and 1.90 yards per route run this season. Thus, Likely is an appealing pick in showdown contests and for gamers seeking salary relief in classic contests.
Josh Allen has been the one constant in Buffalo’s everyone-eats offense. He’s a game-script-proof dual-threat quarterback and the lineup optimizer projects Allen to lead DraftKings and FanDuel in scoring this week. Allen had one of his worst games of the year against Baltimore and could struggle if his defense puts him in obvious passing situations in a negative game script.
However, Allen has been on a tear. In his last seven contests after excluding his single snap in Week 18 to continue his consecutive starts streak, Allen has had a 65.2% completion percentage, 1,722 passing yards (246.0 per game), 13 touchdown passes, two interceptions, 316 rushing yards (45.1 per game), eight rushing touchdowns and a receiving touchdown on a lateral.
Khalil Shakir is Buffalo’s top passing-game weapon. He was first on the Bills this year (including the Wild Card Round) in route participation (70.1%), target share (21.3%), receptions (82 at 5.1 per game), receiving yards (882 at 55.1 per game), first-read percentage (25.3%) and tied for second in receiving touchdowns (four). Shakir was a handful after the catch, evidenced by ranking tied for second in missed tackles forced (23) on receptions this season. Shakir is Buffalo’s least likely pass-catcher to post a total dud.
Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, Curtis Samuel and even running back Ty Johnson have varying degrees of appeal as stacking picks with Allen, bring-backs from the Ravens or one-offs. Despite playing in only 14 of a possible 18 games, Coleman is first on the Bills in end zone targets (eight) and second in receiving yards per game (40.1).
Kincaid was tied with Shakir for the most targets per route run (0.27), and his 9.6 expected fantasy points per game were notably higher than his 8.0 DraftKings and 6.3 FanDuel points per game.
Samuel suffered a turf toe injury before the season and was an afterthought most of the year. Has his recent emergence been a fluke or a sign he’s entirely healthy? I’m not sure. The Bills ramped up his activity in a meaningless Week 18 contest to get him ready for the postseason after he missed Week 16 and Week 17. After hauling in seven receptions for 52 yards from a combination of Mitchell Trubisky and Mike White in Week 18, he had three receptions for 68 yards and a touchdown in the Wild Card Round against the Broncos. Last week, Samuel was tied for the fourth-most routes (14) for the Bills. He could disappear this week, but I’m unwilling to handwave away his last two games.
James Cook was first in Buffalo’s backfield in route participation (34.5%), but Johnson nipped at his heels with a 31.8% route participation rate. Furthermore, Johnson’s suggestion as a contrarian GPP pick in classic contests and showdown lineups isn’t a matter of chasing his highlight-reel grab in the back of the end zone last week. Instead, Johnson has a wideout-like 8.5-yard average depth of target this season. He’s also been aligned wide 8.8% of the time, in the slot 14.4% of the time and inline 3.6% of the time. In addition, the Ravens allowed 4.71 receptions per game, 39.6 receiving yards per game and four receiving touchdowns to running backs in the regular season and seven receptions for 60 receiving yards to Pittsburgh’s running backs in the Wild Card Round.
Cook could also chip in as a receiver. He had 1.9 receptions per game, 15.2 receiving yards per game and two receiving touchdowns in 17 games this season. However, Cook’s most likely path to success is gashing Baltimore’s stout run defense.
Buffalo’s running game against Baltimore’s run defense is a strength-versus-strength matchup. Since Week 10, the Bills were tied for the fourth-highest situation-neutral rush rate (51%), but the Ravens were tied for facing the sixth-lowest situation-neutral rush rate (40%). Baltimore allowed an NFL-low 63.8 rushing yards per game and eight rushing touchdowns to running backs in the regular season.
Still, Cook had an outstanding season. Among 54 running backs with at least 75 rush attempts this season, Cook is 18th in rushing yards per game (63.1), tied for eighth in yards per carry (4.87), ninth in yards before contact per attempt (2.39), 25th in yards after contact per attempt (2.48), tied for 22nd in explosive run rate (4.8%), tied for first in rushing touchdowns (16), 14th in stuff percentage (42.5%), 15th in success rate (51.8%) in zone concepts and 14th in success rate (54.8%) in man/gap concepts. Cook is an option only in GPPs, but Buffalo’s mauling offensive line and his juice could result in a DFS-friendly output. Finally, Justice Hill, Nelson Agholor, Mack Hollins and Dawson Knox could chip in just enough as pass-catching options to have value in showdown contests.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.