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Players to Buy
Rashee Rice had five catches mid-way through the second quarter, but he tailed off in the second half. Still 10 targets overall for Rice (also had a drop and a short pass that fell short of the end zone, one of his 3 RZ targets). Buy low. Rice is first among all WR in XPPG this season. He is the alpha in the Chiefs’ passing game.
Amon-Ra St. Brown was limited to just 2 receptions for 42 yards on 12 targets (32% target share and 57% air yards share), the 2nd-fewest receptions over expected (-4.5) by a player in a game in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). Adoree’ Jackson led the Eagles’ secondary with 11 matchups against St. Brown, allowing just 1 reception for 8 yards on 5 targets. Cooper DeJean (10 matchups) and Quinyon Mitchell (9 matchups) did not allow a reception to St. Brown, with each of them facing 3 targets in coverage. The Eagles are a tough matchup for WRs – and St. Brown felt the burn. However, take this game with a grain of salt. The Lions are still an absolute unit on offense. After a prime-time stinker, everybody is a buy low. Especially with the targets being more narrow with LaPorta on IR. Buy/hold Jameson (my buy high last week based on the increased usage with Dan Campbell calling plays) and buy St. Brown after a prime-time stinker. The Lions have a good schedule ROS for QBs. Their last outdoor game was at Philly in Week 11. Other than that…they are playing indoors until Week 18. You need at least one Lion (hopefully Jamo) on your roster ROS.
Emeka Egbuka still saw 9 targets (32% target share). Not concerned. Buy low while everybody is trying to parse the Buccaneers’ backfield.
Justin Jefferson got the targets (9, 28% target share)…but no cigar. Jordan Addison salvaged his day with a TD. The third-year WR finished with 124 incomplete air yards (49% air yards share). Regarding Addison/Jefferson, you just have to hold or even BUY. Schedule is No. 1 for WRs in the fantasy playoffs. Jefferson is WR7 in XPPFG, but WR19 in actual PPFG. Last three weeks, he has been underperforming by nearly 7 PPG. The usage: Targets, air yards, etc, are all there. We just need McCarthy to play better. And maybe it never happens this season. Very possible. @GB + @SEA next look brutal. But if Jettas can just get it together in Weeks 14-17, it was worth buying low on Jefferson before your trade deadline closed.
If someone is asleep at the wheel…buy Quinshon Judkins. The Browns have a top-6 schedule ROS for RBs. Saw 2 goal-line carries (4 red-zone attempts) but just didn’t score versus the Ravens. Judkins has two-plus targets in three straight games, with two targets coming in the second half from Sanders. The rookie RB carried the ball 17 times for 59 yards. Judkins has 19-plus RB opportunities in six of his last eight games played.
Jaylen Waddle was disappointing but this was an outlier performance. He had a bad drop that could have helped him finish with a better stat line. Regardless, still team-high 7 targets (35% target share and a 74% air yards share). Waddle has now topped 82 yards in five of his seven games this season without Hill, averaging over seven targets and 77 yards per contest when Hill plays fewer than 50% of snaps or misses entirely (11-game sample size). He’s cemented himself as an auto-start WR1 with Hill out. Another W for Miami bodes well for Mike McDaniel’s future as the Dolphins HC for the rest of 2025. The Dolphins’ final seven games feature three at home (one internationally) — an ideal setup for fantasy production. With Achane commanding elite usage and Waddle thriving as the WR1 in Hill’s absence, this offense remains a sharp buying opportunity for savvy managers looking ahead to the fantasy playoffs. Especially with Waddle coming off a bad game during a bye week.
In Week 17 Trey McBride faces the Bengals. You might not win your fantasy football league this year if you don’t have McBride on your roster. Especially considering he can’t stop scoring TDs with Jacoby Brissett under center.
BUY Lamar Jackson. It hasn’t been the same since returning from injury. Struggled against the tough Browns defense on the road. But the schedule is salivating for him and all of his pass-catchers to get back on track from now throughout the fantasy playoffs.
Chase Brown ran 18 times for 99 yards in Week 12 against the Steelers, recording 2 explosive runs of 10+ yards. Since Week 7, Brown has the 2nd-highest explosive run rate (19.2%) of any running back with 30+ carries after having the 2nd-lowest such rate (2.7%, min. 30 carries) from Week 1-6. 26 total touches for Brown while playing 83% of the snaps without Samaje Perine. His targets and receptions have exploded over the last two games. 14 catches for 73 yards on 22 targets (25% target share). Buy Chase Brown. From Weeks 14-16, the Bengals face the Bills, Ravens, and Dolphins. Great matchups and great schedule overall for this entire Bengals offense — true across all positions. Especially if Joe Burrow does return. Baltimore might be the only matchup that is tougher in real life than on paper, given that the defense is much healthier than they were to start the season, so just keep that in mind.
Stefon Diggs is the alpha. He caught 9 of his 11 targets for 105 yards in the Patriots’ TNF win over the Jets. Against zone coverage, Diggs was targeted nine times, catching eight for 100 yards. Most of Diggs’ production came on passes thrown under 10 air yards, earning seven receptions on eight targets for 62 yards. There was a usage change here with Diggs as well that shouldn’t go unnoticed. Season high snaps (71%) and route participation (88%). If Diggs is truly becoming an every-down WR, he can challenge for fantasy WR1 status ROS. Buy high.
Rookie receiver Tetairoa McMillan caught 8 of 12 passes for 130 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Falcons, recording an identical 4 receptions for 65 yards and a touchdown both inside the numbers and outside the numbers. McMillan was covered by A.J. Terrell on 32 of his 48 routes, catching 3 of 6 targets for 63 yards against Terrell while catching 5 of 6 targets for 67 yards and both of his touchdowns against other defenders. Got a lot of start/sit questions regarding T-Mac before Week 11, given the matchup and his lack of ceiling through 10 weeks. Hurts if you left him on the bench, but at least we have now seen a high-end outcome game for the talented first-round pick. Bodes well for him, ROS. The rookie WR is 15th in XPPG this season. Also, the Panthers have a top-10 schedule ROS for WRs (the 49ers up next).
RJ Harvey dominated the routes/targets, whereas Jaleel McLaughlin filled in the JK Dobbins role. The rookie played 61% of the snaps, whereas the other two RBs played 8 snaps apiece. Harvey’s 14 touches for 50 yards were the second-highest in a game this season. He also had 3 RZ attempts but was vultured at the goal line by McLaughlin. Buy low. Dobbins is on IR. And despite Harvey’s “underwhelming” start in his debut, the usage suggests better days ahead. Buy.
DK Metcalf had a 30-yard pass negated by an OPI call on Metcalf. 8 targets total, but just 5 for 49 yards (26% target share and 69% air yards share). It’s easy to be frustrated with DK Metcalf‘s box scores lately, but the underlying metrics still scream buy-low. He commanded a high target share again and saw 5 targets from Rudolph. He is third in points under expectation in the last three games (-16.1). Through Weeks 15-17 (Fantasy Playoffs): Dolphins, Lions, Browns — the No. 2 WR schedule per FantasyPros’ SOS tool. Just a great schedule overall for fantasy WRs. Metcalf’s peripherals suggest he’s still a high-end WR2 with WR1 upside once we get some positive regression based on his usage. With managers likely spooked by the Rodgers injury, prime time to buy low.
Sean Tucker rushed for 106 yards and 2 touchdowns on 19 carries against the Bills, with the majority of his production coming outside the tackles (9 carries, 80 yards, 2 TDs) via Next Gen Stats. Tucker generated two explosive runs on outside carries while also contributing in the passing game, catching both of his targets for 34 yards and a touchdown. It’s now been three weeks in a row that Tucker has seized a larger role in the Bucs’ backfield. Still, Bucky Irving is expected to return soon, but it’s unlikely he resumes his bell cow role from earlier in the season. Tucker’s emergence may impact White more than Irving. The Bucs have consistently leaned into a “hot-hand” approach, so if Irving gets going, he could really take off. If he returns less than 100%, it’s risky—but also a home-run swing for savvy managers. Weeks 16-17 feature matchups against the Panthers and Dolphins. Tampa Bay has a top-10 schedule ROS for WRs, RBs, and QBs. Buy Irving on the injury discount.
Aaron Jones totaled over 20 RB opportunities on a 67% snap rate, though Jordan Mason scored from the 16-yard line. Even so, trade for Jones. A revenge game versus Green Bay is up next. With McCarthy gaining experience, the Vikings RBs could thrive against matchups like the Ravens, Giants, Bears, and Cowboys. They’re easy bench candidates in tougher spots, but the team may lean more on the run game to ease pressure on their young QB. Center Ryan Kelly could return soon, which would help McCarthy most by handling line protections. Jones is a strong buy.
Wan’Dale Robinson was quiet but still led the team with 9 targets (31% target share and air yards share). Presuming Jaxson Dart returns—or even if he doesn’t—Robinson is a cheap scoop. Dart’s absence is hopefully just one week, and the schedule is excellent for fantasy QBs, especially in Weeks 15-17. Buy low.
Jauan Jennings remained the most involved WR, even though Ricky Pearsall made his return. Jennings has led the 49ers in WR targets over the last five games and has a real connection with Purdy. Pearsall was quiet with just one catch for zero yards on three targets, including a red-zone look from the 4-yard line. However, he played 75% of the snaps—tied with Jennings for most among SF WRs. Players returning from injury often carry boom-or-bust profiles, but Pearsall looks healthy. That makes him a screaming buy-low after a poor statistical showing. The 49ers have a fantastic playoff schedule. Get at least one Niner on your bench for the run.
The playoff schedule for the 49ers is fantastic. Whether it’s Brock Purdy or one of his discounted WRs, you’ll want a piece of this offense on your bench heading into the fantasy playoffs.
Rashid Shaheed only played 54% of the snaps but ran a route on 73% of dropbacks. He had three targets of 10+ air yards and an end-zone look but was lackluster in the box score. 56 incomplete air yards. Usage is trending up. Buy low.
Terrible game for Kyle Pitts. However, the rest-of-season schedule is favorable for Falcons TEs, especially over the next four games. If you’re hurting at tight end, Pitts might be a sneaky add if he gets dropped after back-to-back duds. Two of his targets came from Kirk Cousins, and with Drake London missing Week 12, Pitts could see a bump. He had one of his best games of the season versus Miami in Week 8 with Cousins under center (9 catches for 59 yards on nine targets). Add if desperate.
Minnesota has a solid stretch of matchups as the fantasy playoffs approach. While the next two road games look tough, the Vikings have a top-10 schedule ROS for WRs and QBs—and the No. 1 schedule for QBs. Add J.J. McCarthy. In two of his four games this season, he’s been a top-13 QB, averaging over 20 PPG. He’s also adding value as a rusher, with two rushing TDs and 48 yards last week.
Hunter Henry was so close to scoring in the red zone, but Maye’s pass was tipped at the line before the Pats TE could snag it. Pain. But don’t tilt—because the Bengals are next.
Josh Jacobs left the game with a knee injury—not season-ending, but he’s likely out for Week 12. That makes Emanuel Wilson an “empty the clip” waiver wire target after playing 71% of the snaps in Week 11. Chris Brooks should be added in deeper formats. Green Bay has one of the easiest RB schedules ROS, and the next three games are also great for QBs.
Brenton Strange is close to returning, making him a solid TE stash for managers in need. His 21-day practice window will be opened this week per HC Liam Coen.
Players to Sell
Davante Adams only caught one pass despite 8 targets—and of course, it was a touchdown. Adams is now 9th in points scored below expectation this season. The TDs have helped him dramatically, but there’s reason to believe he wasn’t at 100% after getting dinged up last week. His 51% catch rate is the worst of his NFL career, and his YAC per reception ranks bottom-10. At nearly 33 years old, Adams is starting to show signs of decline. If you can sell high—emphasis on high—after another inefficient score, that’s the move. But if there are no takers, it’s fine to hold. The touchdowns aren’t going to vanish overnight.
Nico Collins caught 9 of 10 targets for 92 yards and a touchdown in Week 11, including 5 catches on 6 targets over 10 air yards for 63 yards and the score. But Houston’s rest-of-season schedule is brutal: bottom-3 for QBs and bottom-5 for WRs in the fantasy playoffs. And that was before the Colts acquired Sauce Gardner. The SOS tool gives Houston zero stars for QB matchups from Weeks 15-17. Even with C.J. Stroud potentially returning, Collins ranks 7th-worst in expected points scored under expectation this season. He’s been better with Davis Mills, averaging over 18 PPG the last two weeks. Sell high while the narrative is still glowing.
Aaron Glenn noted that Breece Hall (72% snap share) wasn’t seeing enough targets, which should change soon. Hall had 16 touches in Week 11, but the lack of touchdowns limits his ceiling unless he breaks a big play. The schedule is rough: Weeks 15-16 are road games, and Week 17 is against the Patriots. Hall is a high-floor, low-ceiling back in a struggling offense. If you can move him to a RB-needy team, now’s the time to sell.
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR – IND)
Michael Pittman Jr. had just 2 catches for 19 yards on 2 official targets, losing another to a penalty. The Colts leaned on the ground game and shifted passing volume toward Warren and Pierce. Pittman also drew A.J. Terrell in coverage. The rest-of-season schedule is bottom-10 for WRs, with tough matchups against the Chiefs, Texans, and Seahawks. While Pittman is WR11 in actual PPG, he’s just WR33 in expected PPG. His usage is nearly identical to Alec Pierce, who has more yards thanks to big plays. Pittman remains the WR1, but in a run-heavy offense with four viable pass catchers, he’s a weekly volatility risk. If someone values him as a true alpha, sell.
This is your last chance to sell A.J. Brown. He had 13 targets (39% share, 3 RZ looks) and still didn’t top 50 yards. If this was the “squeaky wheel” game, it didn’t squeak loud enough. The loss of Lane Johnson will hurt the offense, and DeVonta Smith has been better this season. Smith is WR23 in XPPG (Brown is 26th), and he’s more efficient—2.06 yards per route vs. Brown’s career-low 1.59. Their target shares are nearly identical, but Smith has more yards and catches. The Eagles’ passing game is inconsistent, and these dud games will continue. Sell high if you can.
Kyle Monangai scored the goal-line TD, but D’Andre Swift dominated touches. Still, he didn’t convert any of his 3 red-zone attempts. Monangai remains the preferred short-yardage back. This is a split backfield, even if Swift is the 1A. The rookie ranks 6th in success rate; Swift is 9th. The Bears face CLE, GB, and SF in the playoffs—tough sledding for RBs. After a solid Week 11, now’s the time to get off the ride.
Bo Nix threw for 295 yards in Week 11, including 171 on passes over 10 air yards. Troy Franklin caught a 32-yard pass to set up the game-winning field goal. The second-year WR had 124 incomplete air yards (58% share) and has posted a 20%+ target share in seven straight games. He’s WR12 in XPPG but ranks third in fantasy points under expectation—regression looms. Denver’s playoff schedule (GB, JAX, KC) is tough, and Courtland Sutton is still involved. Franklin has 4 TDs in his last five games, but this could be a prime sell-high window.
Deebo Samuel caught 7 of 8 targets for 74 yards and a touchdown in Week 11. Six of those catches came against zone coverage, including a 22-yard screen TD. But this might be your last chance to sell high. Samuel has finished outside the top-45 WRs in three of his last five games. Without a late 28-yard catch, he would’ve been under 50 yards for the fourth time in five weeks. He’s averaging just 5.6 YAC/reception—well below his career average of 9.0. With Washington’s season spiraling and Terry McLaurin returning soon, Deebo’s outlook is shaky.
Caleb Williams has looked strong recently, but the late-season schedule could be a problem. If you can sell high after boosted performances against the Bengals and Giants, now’s the time.
Woody Marks had 18 carries for 44 yards in Week 11—brutally inefficient at 2.4 YPC. He added just one catch despite red-zone work. The Texans’ offensive line is a problem, and Marks hasn’t shown much as a rusher. He ranks dead last in rushing success rate (27%) and third-to-last in EPA per rush. Meanwhile, Chubb has been efficient for two straight weeks and is closing the snap gap (Marks 66%, Chubb 26%). Week 11 was a great matchup, and Marks flopped. Unless you can sell high, you may have to hold. But this could turn into a Commanders-style RB committee if Chubb keeps producing.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Devin Singletary combined for 132 rushing yards and two touchdowns, running inside the tackles on 68.6% of attempts. Tracy played 52% of the snaps to Singletary’s 48%. The duo averaged 2.4 yards before contact on inside runs and were hit behind the line of scrimmage on just 4.2% of those attempts—a massive improvement over the Giants’ previous average of 0.7 yards before contact and 47.9% of runs stuffed behind the line (Weeks 1-10, per Next Gen Stats).
Despite the improved efficiency, Singletary maintained his red-zone role, scoring twice and nearly a third time on six goal-line carries and nine red-zone attempts. Winston added a rushing TD on a sneak. Tracy didn’t see a bump in usage. If you can sell high to an RB-needy team, now’s the time. The schedule is brutal—ranked toughest by the FantasyPros SOS tool over the next two weeks before a Week 14 bye. Ship him off if you can.
Alvin Kamara totaled 25 touches for 115 scrimmage yards (64% snap share) in Week 10—22 carries for 83 yards (3.8 YPC) and 3 catches for 32 yards. Still, he couldn’t crack fantasy RB1 status. Rookie Devin Neal flashed with 4 carries for 22 yards (5.5 YPC) and 3 catches for 9 yards, showing burst and balance. Neal tied Kamara in targets despite running half the routes. Taysom Hill also remained involved with 7 carries on a 37% snap rate.
This is a three-headed backfield, and Kamara continues to rank among PFF’s lowest-graded RBs. Sell if you can. That said, the rest-of-season schedule is decent, and Weeks 16-17 (Jets, Titans) are top-10 matchups for RBs. Stash Neal in case Kamara fades down the stretch.
Tyjae Spears led the Titans backfield in Week 11 with 53% of the snaps and paced the team in receptions (5). It’s still a split backfield in a struggling offense, but Spears looks like the preferred option rest of season. Tony Pollard, meanwhile, continues to disappoint and is now PFF’s third-lowest graded RB. In shallower formats, he can be dropped.
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