First off, lemme begin this holiday addition of the Primer with Happy Holidays, and I hope as you read this, you are surrounded by family, food, and friends as you prepare for another wonderful week of football ahead. I won’t keep you here long before we dive into this week’s action, but I’ll leave you with a few quick thoughts about this holiday that I guess are controversial to some.
Turkey is amazing, & if you hate it, then you’ve never had it cooked properly.
Pie is gross and overrated. Don’t waste precious stomach room on pie.
Mac N Cheese is the 1.01 of sides over stuffing. Stuffing is good, but nothing holds a candle to the Mac.
Now that I have you properly tilting…let’s talk fantasy football. Welcome to the Week 13 Primer. Enjoy.
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Fantasy Football Primer
Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions
- DET -2.5, O/U 49
- Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Packers Players & Weekly Rankings
| Jordan Love | QB | QB1/2 |
| Josh Jacobs | RB | RB1 |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB | RB3 |
| Christian Watson | WR | WR2/3 |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | WR3/4 |
| Matthew Golden | WR | WR5 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | WR | WR4/5 |
| Luke Musgrave | TE | TE2/3 |
Lions Players & Weekly Rankings
| Jared Goff | QB | QB1/2 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | RB1 |
| David Montgomery | RB | RB2/3 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | WR1 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | WR3 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | WR | WR5 |
| Kalif Raymond | WR | Out |
| Ross Dwelley | TE | TE2/3 |
| Brock Wright | TE | Out |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Over the last two games, Christian Watson has stepped up as Green Bay’s WR1 with a team-leading 83% route share, a 25% target share, a 36.2% air-yard share, 47.5 receiving yards per game, 2.17 yards per route run, and a 36.7% first-read share. Since Week 11, he has led the team with two red zone targets and three deep targets. This week, he faces a Detroit secondary that has featured single high at the third-highest rate (60.5%) and utilized man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL (41.7%). Since Week 10, against single high, Watson has led the team with a 19.5% target share, 2.53 yards per route run, and a 28% first-read share. Since Week 10, against man coverage, Watson ranks second on the team with a 25% target share but leads Green Bay in yards per route run (2.11) and first-read share (38.5%). Watson is in a good spot to produce again this week. Since Week 7, Detroit has allowed the tenth-most fantasy points per game and the seventh-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
Jordan Love has been efficient on a per-dropback basis, but Green Bay’s yearning to play conservatively and limit his passing numbers weekly has been maddening. Among 45 qualifying quarterbacks, Love ranks 17th in passing yards per game and 16th in dropbacks, but he’s also ninth in yards per attempt, sixth in adjusted completion rate, and tenth in hero throw rate. If the Lions push the Packers’ offense, the Packers’ offense could be forced from their comfy conservative box and feed Love with some passing volume. Since Week 8, Detroit’s pass defense has taken a step back, allowing the seventh-highest yards per attempt, the ninth-highest CPOE, and the 12th-most passing touchdowns (tied).
Jared Goff and Jordan Love share some similarities. Both players have been quite efficient with their passing volume, but they have been held back by their offenses in terms of volume. Goff ranks 15th in dropbacks this season despite also ranking ninth in passing yards per game, eighth in yards per attempt, second in passing touchdowns, and 12th in highly accurate throw rate. Detroit could be forced to throw it this week if their ground game stalls against the Packers run defense. Green Bay’s pass defense remains top shelf too though. Since Week 8, Green Bay has allowed the sixth-fewest yards per attempt, the second-fewest passing yards per game, the fifth-lowest passer rating, and has ranked 16th in CPOE.
I’ll admit I didn’t see a zero coming for Jameson Williams last week. He drew only three targets and converted them into a goose egg box score. Since Dan Campbell took over playcalling duties, Williams has had a 14% target share, a 26.8% air-yard share, 69 receiving yards per game, 2.01 yards per route run, and a 15.9% first-read share. The offense has condensed around Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs in recent weeks, and I don’t see that changing this week. In his last three games, Williams has two red zone targets and one deep target. Williams is a viable but worrisome flex play in Week 13. Since Week 7, Green Bay has ranked 17th in receiving yards per game while allowing the 14th-fewest fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Romeo Doubs is the WR40 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 8, he has had a 19% target share, a 30.2% air-yard share, 43.2 receiving yards per game, 1.74 yards per route run, and a 22.1% first-read share. This week, he faces a Detroit secondary that has featured single high at the third-highest rate (60.5%). Since Week 10, against single high, Doubs has had a 17.1% target share (second on the team) with 0.42 yards per route run and a 20% first-read share. Doubs is a sketchier flex play this week, but the matchup for him on the perimeter is quite nice, so maybe this is a bounce-back game. If he were to have another dud game, I wouldn’t be shocked, though. Since Week 7, Detroit has allowed the tenth-most fantasy points per game and the seventh-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
David Montgomery has taken a back seat over the last two games to Jahmyr Gibbs. Since Week 11, Montgomery has averaged 36.2% of the snaps with a 26.2% route share, 7.5 touches, and 37 total yards per game. Since Week 10, he has had only three red zone rushing attempts to Gibbs’ seven. Until further notice, Montgomery is a touchdown-dependent flex play. Since Week 8, Green Bay has ranked 16th in explosive run rate and 17th in yards after contact per attempt while holding rushing attacks to the 13th-lowest rushing success rate and the fifth-lowest missed tackle rate.
Before dealing with injury, Matthew Golden had been reduced to a part-time player in Weeks 9 & 11 with only a 35.8 snap rate. He averaged only three targets and 16.5 receiving yards per game. Golden is droppable in redraft.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Dallas Cowboys
Chiefs Players & Weekly Rankings
| Patrick Mahomes II | QB | QB1 |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | RB3/4 |
| Kareem Hunt | RB | RB2 |
| Brashard Smith | RB | RB4 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | WR1 |
| Xavier Worthy | WR | WR4 |
| Hollywood Brown | WR | WR5 |
| Travis Kelce | TE | TE1 |
Cowboys Players & Weekly Rankings
| Dak Prescott | QB | QB1 |
| Javonte Williams | RB | RB1 |
| Malik Davis | RB | RB4 |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR | WR1/2 |
| George Pickens | WR | WR1/2 |
| Jalen Tolbert | WR | WR5 |
| Jake Ferguson | TE | TE1 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Dak Prescott has been playing at such a high level this season as the QB5 in fantasy points per game. Among 45 qualifying quarterbacks, Prescott ranks third in passing yards per game, second in passing touchdowns (tied), sixth in highly accurate throw rate, 11th in hero throw rate, and second in catchable target rate. He should post strong QB1 numbers again this week as Dallas will be pushed to keep pace with the Chiefs’ offense. Since Week 7, Kansas City has allowed the 13th-highest yards per attempt, the sixth-highest adjusted completion rate, and the 14th-highest passer rating. Prescott should have time to cut up this pass defense. Since Week 7, Kansas City has had the 11th-lowest pressure rate.
Since Week 9, Kareem Hunt has operated as Kansas City’s bell cow back with a 75.7% snap rate, 19.7 touches per game, and 82.4 total yards per game as the RB14 in fantasy points per game. Among 54 qualifying backs, Hunt ranks 39th in missed tackle rate and 28th in yards after contact per attempt. He’s a volume play with a nice matchup. Since Week 7, Dallas has allowed the second-highest explosive run rate, the seventh-highest yards after contact per attempt, and sat at 17th in yards before contact per attempt.
Jake Ferguson is the TE4 in fantasy points per game, commanding an 18.9% target share with 41.8 receiving yards per game, 1.41 yards per route run, and a 22.1% first-read share. Ferguson is second among tight ends in red zone targets behind only Trey McBride, while also seeing three deep targets. The Chiefs aren’t an overwhelming matchup for Ferguson. Kansas City has faced the fifth-fewest tight end targets per game, but the Chiefs have allowed the 13th-highest yards per reception to the position. It should be viewed as a neutral matchup for Ferguson.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
N/A
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
I can’t plug Isiah Pacheco into a lineup this week. I expect him to be behind Kareem Hunt in the running back pecking order. It’s also possible that Kansas City continues to roll with Hunt as their bellcow for Week 13. If you want to plug him in as a dart throw flex play, I get it. Since Week 7, Dallas has allowed the second-highest explosive run rate, the seventh-highest yards after contact per attempt, and sat at 17th in yards before contact per attempt.
I’m not looking to flex Xavier Worthy this week. Since Rashee Rice‘s return, Worthy has been the WR60 in fantasy points per game with a 16% target share, 39 receiving yards per game,1.17 yards per route run, and a 20.8% first-read share. Across his last five games, he has three red zone targets and five deep targets. Since Week 11, Dallas has utilized two high at the ninth-highest rate (55.4%). Since Week 7, against two high, Worthy has had an 11.7% target share, 0.97 yards per route run, and a 14.7% first-read share. Dallas’s secondary deficiencies could help Worthy succeed this week, but with his limited volume against two high, it’s a tough bet to make. Since Week 7, Dallas has allowed the most receiving yards per game and the eighth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens
Bengals Players & Weekly Rankings
| Joe Burrow | QB | QB1/2 |
| Chase Brown | RB | RB1 |
| Samaje Perine | RB | RB3/4 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | WR | WR1 |
| Tee Higgins | WR | Out |
| Andrei Iosivas | WR | WR4 |
| Mitchell Tinsley | WR | WR3/4 |
| Mike Gesicki | TE | TE2/3 |
| Noah Fant | TE | TE2/3 |
Ravens Players & Weekly Rankings
| Lamar Jackson | QB | QB1 |
| Derrick Henry | RB | RB1 |
| Justice Hill | RB | Out |
| Keaton Mitchell | RB | RB3/4 |
| Zay Flowers | WR | WR2 |
| Rashod Bateman | WR | WR4/5 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | WR | WR5 |
| Mark Andrews | TE | TE1 |
| Isaiah Likely | TE | TE2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Chase Brown is Cincy Christian McCaffrey since Week 9 with an 88.9% snap share, a 79.2% route share, and a 20% target share. Since Week 9, he has averaged 21.3 touches and 123 total yards as the RB9 in fantasy points per game. He has produced at that level for fantasy and didn’t even score a single touchdown in that span. Since Week 7, among 52 qualifying backs, Brown has been amazing, ranking fourth in explosive run rate, sixth in missed tackle rate, and fourth in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 8, Baltimore has allowed the third-highest explosive run rate, the ninth-highest missed tackle rate, and has ranked 15th in yards before contact per attempt. Brown should have another strong showing in Week 13.
Zay Flowers is the WR24 in fantasy points per game with a 26.7% target share, 69.2 receiving yards per game, 2.45 yards per route run, and a 33% first-read share. He has six red zone targets and ten deep targets this season. Flowers could see shadow coverage this week from DJ Turner. Turner has shadowed four times this season, holding D.K. Metcalf, Justin Jefferson, and Romeo Doubs to 45 or fewer scoreless receiving yards in his primary coverage. He followed those receivers on 78.1-90.3% of their routes. If Flowers isn’t shadowed, he should have a strong outing. Cincy has the eighth-highest single high rate (56%). Against single high, Flowers has had a 29.1% target share with 2.94 yards per route run and a 34% first-read share. Since Week 7, Cincy has ranked 19th in PPR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers. Lamar Jackson should lean on Flowers this week if Turner isn’t in his back pocket.
Mark Andrews is the TE18 in fantasy points per game with four TE1 weeks in weekly scoring (TE2, TE5, TE9, TE5). He has seven weeks as the TE17 or lower in weekly scoring as well. It has been feast or famine for Andrews this season. This week looks like it’s time to feast again. Yes, I know there’s a Thanksgiving pun in there somewhere. Andrews has a 16.1% target share with 25.9 receiving yards per game, 1.34 yards per route run, and a 21.4% first-read share. The Bengals have the eighth-highest single high rate (56%). Against single high, Andrews has seen his numbers spike with a 22% target per route run rate and 1.85 yards per route run. The Bengals have been a free square for tight ends all season, giving up the most receiving yards per game and the most fantasy points per game to the position.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
I’m not expecting Joe Burrow to get back under center this week and look like mid-season Joe Burrow or MVP-level Joe Burrow. We have only one full game sample to work with for Burrow in Week 1. In that game, he completed 60.9% of his passes with only 4.9 yards per attempt and 113 total passing yards. At the time, we didn’t know that the Browns defense would be as good as it has been, but also typically Burrow and the Bengals’ offense have been slow to round into form yearly. He could come out firing and look great this week, but there’s risk here even before we discuss the Ravens defense. Is the Ravens’ pass defense good, or have they simply feasted on bad quarterbacking since Week 8? I’m not sure to tell you the truth. Since Week 8, the Ravens have faced Caleb Williams, Tua Tagovailoa, JJ McCarthy, Dillon Gabriel, Shedeur Sanders, and Tyrod Taylor. Yeah, not exactly top-end talent at the quarterback position. Since Week 8, Baltimore has allowed the eighth-lowest yards per attempt, the lowest passer rating, the second-lowest CPOE, and has generated the tenth-best pressure rate. We’ll see how Burrow fares in Week 13, but he’s a volatile fantasy option this week with a WIDE range of outcomes.
Last week was the first time this season that Mitchell Tinsley has played more than 26% of the offensive snaps. In Week 12, Tinsley had a 69.2% route share with a 15.8% target share, 29.4% air-yard share (15.3 aDOT), 29 receiving yards, 1.07 yards per route run, and a 22.7% first-read share. He served as the team’s field stretcher last week with two of his six targets coming downfield while he also saw a red zone target. Tinsley is a deep league flex play only. Since Week 7, Baltimore has allowed the 11th-most receiving yards per game and ranked 15th in PPR points per target against perimeter wide receivers.
Isaiah Likely has been a nothingburger this season. He has only one game with more than 17 receiving yards and more than 3.7 PPR points. Since Week 6, he has had a 57.3% route share with an 11.5% target share, 19.3 receiving yards per game, 1.09 yards per route run, and a 10.3% first-read share. In his last six games, he has only three red zone targets and one deep target. He’s a matchup-based dart throw at the streaming tight end board this week. The Bengals have been a free square for tight ends all season, giving up the most receiving yards per game and the most fantasy points per game to the position.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
Last week, Iosivas was the WR29 in weekly scoring with an 18.4% target share, 61 receiving yards, 1.85 yards per route run, and a 13.6% first-read share. Iosivas has five red zone targets and five deep targets this season. Prior to last week, he had finished as a top-36 wide receiver in weekly scoring twice (WR26, WR13). Iosivas is a decent flex play again this week, but the matchup isn’t as great. Since Week 7, Baltimore has allowed the fourth-fewest PPR points per target and ranked 15th in receiving yards per game given up to the slot.
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*All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, FTN, rbsdm.com, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*
