Dan Harris

Kirk has the bat to to be a fantasy asset if he can stay in the lineup, particularly with catcher eligibility. He is a career .315 hitter with a .918 OPS in the minors, and had a strong, albeit short, stint in the majors last year during when he had a .983 OPS in nine games. The biggest obstacle for Kirk is that the Blue Jays have two solid defensive catchers in Danny Jansen and Reese McGuire, and although they could put Kirk at DH, they have plenty of other options for that position. In other words, Kirk needs to hit and hit early to cement a lineup spot. If he does, he's got top-10 catcher potential pretty easily.

Mountcastle followed up a successful minor-league career with a strong 35-game stint in the majors last year. Not only did he bat .333 with an .878 OPS and a 139 wRC+, but he also walked 7.9% of the time, far above what he showed in the minors. The batting average is unsustainable - he was a .295 hitter in the minors and last year he relied on a .398 BABIP despite sub-par average exit velocity and a middling line drive rate. But playing in Camden Yards should certainly keep his production high, and batting in the middle of the Orioles lineup should lead to enough RBI chances to make him a rosterable, if not startable, fantasy option.

Hayes had an outstanding 24-game run with the Pirates last year, hitting five home runs with an 1.124 OPS and a 55.4% hard-hit rate, which would have ranked seventh best in the majors had he had enough plate appearances. But that was far more offensve production than he had shown in the minors, where he totaled just a .752 OPS with 25 home runs in 461 career games. Hayes makes a ton of contact and should bat near the top of the Pirates order this year, so even if he regresses some offensively, he should still find enough counting stats to be useful. But don't expect 2020's power levels.

Schwarber gave back many of his 2019 gains last year, seeing a rise in strikeout rate (29.5%) and his batting average dropping to an abysmal .188. But Schwarber's season was far from linear: over the first half of the season, he slashed .230/.343/.448, but those numbers dropped to .154/.279/.346 over the second half. At the same time, he continued to hit the ball extremely hard, with a 92.8 MPH average exit velocity, which was top 5% in the league. Given his consistently hard contact, the better course of action seems to forgive Schwarber for what amounted to an extremely poor 24-game stretch to close out the season. Now batting in the middle of the Nationals lineup with a fresh start and entering his age-28 season, Schwarber should rebound to somewhere between his 2018 and 2019 numbers.

Guerrero Jr. comes into 2021 with fantasy managers asking the same question they asked the year before: can he stop hitting the ball on the ground so much? A 49.6% ground-ball rate was bad in 2019, but a 54.6% ground ball rate in 2020 was downright egregious. Guerrero Jr. hits the ball really, really hard. He was in the top seven percent of MLB in average exit velocity (92.5 MPH) and hard hit rate (50.8%). But until he learns to stop pounding the ball into the dirt, his power upside will be limited. There will be some fantasy manager in your league willing to bet on the upside, so if you want Guerrero Jr., you're going to have to draft him before his numbers say you should. This may indeed be the year that everything clicks. But you'll have to pay to find out.

Castellanos hit for plenty of power last season with the Reds, but it was far from the full breakout season many expected. His strikeout rate jumped to 28.5%, his batting average cratered to a career-low .225, and his wOBA was his worst mark since 2015. But Castellanos was also the victim of some pretty terrible luck, given that he had an expected batting average of .273 and a strong 46.7% hard-hit rate. With a full year in Great American Ballpark, Castellanos should fully live up to the hype he had coming into the 2020 season if he can just have even normal luck. Draft him with confidence as a likely strong four-category contributor.

There were plenty of warning signs with Robles' batted-ball data heading into 2020, and they're only greater now after an abysmal season during which he slashed .220/.293/.315. The MLB average in barrel rate and average exit velocity are 6.4% and 88.3 MPH, respectively. Robles clocked in at 4.8% and 83.3 MPH in 2019, and then fell to a ridiculous 1.7% and 82.2 MPH in 2020. His continously poor contact limits any upside, but it's worth noting that he still hit 17 homers and stole 28 bases in 2019 despite it all. Robles is still just entering his age-24 season, so massive long-term growth is still certainly on the table. But for now, it's impossible to justify drafting him as anything more than a fifth outfielder in mixed leagues.

Hiura looked to be on the verge of superstardom heading into 2020, if he could just cut back on his bloated 30.7% strikeout rate. Instead, he struck out more than ever (34.6% of the time), en route to a league-leading 85 strikeouts. That led to a massive drop in production, notably in batting average, which fell from .303 in 2019 to .212 last year. Hiura was mever a high-strikeout player in the minors. He never struck out more than 26.3% in any level and he had an overall strikeout rate of just 21%. If he can manage to cut down on the whiffs, he should be a top option at second base given his power and speed, but for now, drop him down your draft board a bit from where he was heading into 2020. He's still a borderline top-five option, but exercise more caution.

What one hitter should fantasy owners look into picking up that is owned in less than 20% of Leagues?
Quick, which hitter ranks in the top 15 in hard contact rate, is on a 162-game pace of more than 30 home runs, and is eligible at three positions? Little-owned Max Muncy, that's who. Muncy wasn't a huge prospect and never showed a lot of pop in the minors, but he's hitting well and batting near the top of the Dodgers' lineup. He's making an incredible amount of hard contact and looks like he could be yet another example of a player who vastly outperforms his power numbers from the minors once he reaches the show.

What one starting pitcher should fantasy owners look into picking up that is owned in less than 20% of Leagues?
Carlos Rodon is a pitcher that fantasy owners should have had stashed on their DL spot for awhile, but judging by his 6% ownership, they haven't. Rodon has teased fantasy owners for years, but his potential to be a difference-maker is exactly why he should be picked up before he is activated, which should be soon. He is coming off a dominant rehab outing, with eight strikeouts over five innings, and has allowed just one run total in his three starts. At this point, no one needs another pitcher who will give you five innings and allow three runs with middling strikeout numbers. If you're looking for high upside on your bench, and you should be, look to add Rodon immediately.

What one player are you trying to buy low and what type of player would you give up to get him?
Ordinarily, I wouldn't think that Paul Goldschmidt owners would dare sell low on an elite player, but from what I can tell, his owners are panicking. Yes, Goldschmidt has been awful, and a 31.4% strikeout percentage combined with a .695 OPS is enough to raise some red flags. But no, humidor or no, a 30-year-old elite player does not simply fall off a cliff. Goldschmidt's awful season is really just an awful May (.900 OPS in April, .425 in May), and there's no way to draw any conclusions about a tough few-week stretch. I'd be looking to see if I could nab Goldschmidt for a Carlos Carrasco or Tommy Pham type of player, but would be willing to give a little more if necessary.

What one player are you trying to sell high right now and who would you want in return?
It has nothing to do with his talent, but I'd look to move James Paxton if I could get an elite player. Paxton has been outstanding this season, with the best strikeout rate of his career and a no-hitter under his belt. But Paxton's innings year-by-year are as follows: 95, 106 1/3, 169 2/3, 87, 73 2/3, 171 2/3, 140. As good as he is, the chances of him topping 170 innings seems minimal, and he's already at 62 2/3. I'd think of him as a top-10 starter and try to deal him for someone like George Springer or an underachieving slugger like Anthony Rizzo.

What one hitter should fantasy owners look into picking up that is owned in less than 20% of Leagues?
Daniel Descalso has somehow played his way into consideration in most fantasy leagues. A super-utility player, Descalso has shined with regular playing time in Jake Lamb's absence, slashing .261/.363/.514. and upping his pull percentage and his hard contact and fly-ball rates. Lamb should be back shortly but with A.J. Pollock's injury and Descalso's versatility, he should be able to stick in the lineup more often than not. With eligibility all over the diamond, he's an ideal bench pickup at least for fantasy owners.

What one starting pitcher should fantasy owners look into picking up that is owned in less than 20% of Leagues?
In Vince Velasquez's last three starts (one of which was against the Nationals), he's thrown 17 1/3 innings and allowed four runs and 18 base-runners, while striking out 21. Yes, his bouts with control can be maddening and yes, there will be bumps in the road. But he has a 27.1% strikeout rate, and both his FIP and xFIP suggests that his 4.37 ERA should be lower. When you're looking to fill your bench with pitchers, you need high upside, and Velasquez is oozing with potential. His ownership percentage is far too low.

Which player who is greatly outperforming his ADP will be able to sustain his performance and why?
Gerrit Cole was drafted as the 21st starting pitcher off the board and the 74th player overall, but he's my fourth-ranked starter for the rest of the season and I feel pretty confident in that ranking. Everything fantasy owners hoped for with his move to the Astros has happened: he's throwing his fastball much less (about 53% of the time, down from his usual 60-65%) and his breaking pitches much more. The result is a dramatic increase in swinging strike rate and an overall performance that is utterly supported by his underlying metrics. Do not be afraid to buy high here.

Which player is destined for negative regression despite his early season success and why?
Ozzie Albies is a wonderful player, but there's just no way he can sustain this pace. Yes, SunTrust Park is a hitter's haven and Francisco Lindor is an example of a player who has hit for much more power in the majors than the minors, but still, Albies isn't suddenly a 30-home run hitter overnight. He's not walking or stealing bases all that much, and when the power dries up a bit, as it likely will, Albies will simply be a good, but not great, asset. In the end, Albies will outperform his draft position, but I don't expect him to finish as a top second baseman.

What one player do you expect to positively regress after a slow start to the season?
I am entirely unconcerned with Willson Contreras' slow start. Although he's walking less, he's also striking out less, and he's reduced his abysmal 53.3% ground ball rate from last year to a passable 45.3% rate this year. Once the weather officially warms up in Chicago and the Cubs' offense picks up, Contreras will go back to putting up elite numbers for a catcher, and he should justify his draft position when all is said and done.

What one player are you trying to buy low and what type of player would you give up to get him?
I'm not 100% confident in buying low on Yu Darvish, but I'm still trying to do it wherever I can. There are plenty of warning signs for Darvish at this point - his strikeout rate is down and his walk rate is way up, even for him. But, he remains immensely talented and his O-Swing and O-Contact percentages suggest that he may still be tipping his pitches, which is a problem he had in the World Series and should be correctable. I'd look to try to sell high on young pitchers like Blake Snell or Sean Manaea who are off to great starts, but would be willing to give up solid hitters like Yoenis Cespedes or Justin Upton. The chance to buy low on a potential ace doesn't come around often, and it's worth the risk.

What one player are you trying to sell high right now and who would you want in return?
I'm not sure if you can truly sell high on Jed Lowrie right now, but if so, I'd take a decent return and run. He's off to an incredible start but there are plenty of warning signs, including an inflated .387 BABIP (.297 career) and a high 38.6% ground ball rate (32.7% career). Regression is surely coming, and his health concerns (he's topped 100 games just three times in his career) make him an ideal sell-high candidate. I'd swap him for a host of disappointing or injured second base-eligible players (Ian Kinsler, Rougned Odor, Chris Taylor) or any top-40 starter, without hesitation.

What one player are you trying to buy low and what type of player would you give up to get him?
I'm not necessarily trying to buy low on Edwin Encarnacion, but that's only because I own him everywhere. Trying to acquire Encarnacion right now, even at a reduced price, is not without risk. He's at an age (35) where he could easily fall off a cliff, and he's batting at an historically awful pace. But he looked absolutely done last April (.200/.343/.353) and the April before that (.250/.298/.396) and the April before that (.205/.258/.352), before rebounding to have his typical season. I'd look to flip him for an Eric Hosmer/Miguel Cabrera type, but would have no problem giving up someone like Marcell Ozuna, Lorenzo Cain, or Tommy Pham.

What one player are you trying to sell high right now and who would you want in return?
I'd look to move Ozzie Albies if I could right now, as he's the perfect combination of prospect pedigree plus over-performance for a sell-high candidate. Albies has a bright future, but his five home runs and nearly 1.000 OPS may have some believing he's something he isn't. He's walking just 2.5% of the time and has a 19.2% HR/FB rate. Albies should be valuable, but there are obviously many owners who are starting to buy into him as a true fantasy stud. I'd gladly flip him for other similarly-ranked second basemen (Dee Gordon, Robinson Cano) or under-performing or injured players like Wil Myers, Miguel Sano, or Anthony Rendon.

What one hitter should fantasy owners look into picking up that is owned in less than 25% of Leagues?
Amed Rosario is the perfect blend of potential plus opportunity. An elite prospect, Rosario had a disastrous debut in the majors last season, which led to him being largely forgotten in fantasy circles during draft time. But he's off to an excellent start so far this season, batting .333 with an .842 OPS so far. Rosario is batting ninth, which will limit his plate appearances, but should also allow him to utilize his speed and tack on 20 or 25 steals over the course of the season. At a thin position, Rosario could easily be an impact player, and should at least be more widely owned as a middle infield option.

What one starting pitcher should fantasy owners look into picking up that is owned in less than 25% of Leagues?
Jack Flaherty barely makes the cut at 24% ownership, but that number needs to be doubled or tripled immediately. His debut against the Brewers was electric, with nine strikeouts in just five innings. Yes, he's been relegated to the minors for now, but if you watched Adam Wainwright pitch on Thursday, you know Flaherty won't be there for long. Pitchers who are widely available who can even sniff "fantasy ace" potential are few and far between, but Flaherty is one of them. Make some room on your bench, add him immediately before he gets called back up, and avoid the rush.

Please name one hitter ranked outside the top 50 in the expert consensus that owners will regret the most not drafting.
Travis Shaw had a breakout season in 2017 and, in light of his move to Miller Park and the changes in his approach, fantasy owners should be buying in. Shaw clearly focused on being more patient and making more contact last year, and unlike many of his fellow players, actually reduced his fly ball rate, which led to his increase in batting average. But what really stands out and makes Shaw someone to target are his home road splits: .255/.327/.452 at home and .291/.370/.571 on the road. Shaw's infant daughter had health problems last year, and he talked about how much that distracted him when he was in Milwaukee, and which likely caused his poor numbers despite playing in the hitter-friendly Miller Park. With improvement at home this year probable, Shaw could be a monster for fantasy purposes.

Please name one starting pitcher ranked outside the top 25 in the expert consensus that owners will regret the most not drafting.
I really don't understand why the fantasy community leapt off the Johnny Cueto bandwagon so quickly after one injury-plagued year. Cueto, like several pitchers last year, battled blisters, which led to decreased movement in his pitches and a lack of command. Rather than attribute his decline to the blisters, everyone seems to be viewing him as someone who hit a wall and suddenly completely lost the strike zone (8.2% walk rate vs. 6.9% career). I'm just not buying that as the case, as his strikeout rate remained relatively consistent and there was little before last year to suggest a decline was imminent. With an improved team behind him, I'm willing to give Cueto a pass (for the most part) last year, and I am trying to scoop him up everywhere I can.