Dan Harris
FantasyPros
Twitter: @danharris80
Website: https://www.fantasypros.com/
Featured Pros: Under-the-Radar Waiver Pickups
What one hitter should fantasy owners look into picking up that is owned in less than 20% of Leagues?
If you're sitting with anyone other than the top five or six options at catcher, little-owned Tom Murphy is a player who I'd look to add immediately. Murphy has been absolutely crushing it in Triple-A this season, slashing .289/.359/.642 with 16 home runs in just 49 games. He's done well with the Rockies since his call-up, and word is that they want him to be the everyday catcher. With the dearth of reliable options, he's a solid speculative add for leagues deeper than 10-teamers, and is one of the few options that has a legitimate chance of being a potential top-five option at his position rest of season.
What one starting pitcher should fantasy owners look into picking up that is owned in less than 20% of Leagues?
With the caveat that I'm not super excited about any starting pitcher currently owned in less than 20% of leagues, I'd take a stab with Dylan Covey. Since his first start, Covey has given up a total of five earned runs over his last five starts, which includes two matchups against the Indians and one against the Red Sox. He doesn't have electric stuff and wins could be an issue playing for the White Sox, but his performance thus far is supported. He has a 2.15 FIP and a 3.30 xFIP, and is allowing just a 29.5% hard contact rate against. Covey isn't someone who is going to win your league for you. But he certainly fits the mold of someone who you can stick in the back end of your rotation and not worry about.
If you're sitting with anyone other than the top five or six options at catcher, little-owned Tom Murphy is a player who I'd look to add immediately. Murphy has been absolutely crushing it in Triple-A this season, slashing .289/.359/.642 with 16 home runs in just 49 games. He's done well with the Rockies since his call-up, and word is that they want him to be the everyday catcher. With the dearth of reliable options, he's a solid speculative add for leagues deeper than 10-teamers, and is one of the few options that has a legitimate chance of being a potential top-five option at his position rest of season.
What one starting pitcher should fantasy owners look into picking up that is owned in less than 20% of Leagues?
With the caveat that I'm not super excited about any starting pitcher currently owned in less than 20% of leagues, I'd take a stab with Dylan Covey. Since his first start, Covey has given up a total of five earned runs over his last five starts, which includes two matchups against the Indians and one against the Red Sox. He doesn't have electric stuff and wins could be an issue playing for the White Sox, but his performance thus far is supported. He has a 2.15 FIP and a 3.30 xFIP, and is allowing just a 29.5% hard contact rate against. Covey isn't someone who is going to win your league for you. But he certainly fits the mold of someone who you can stick in the back end of your rotation and not worry about.
Featured Pros: Under-the-Radar Waiver Pickups
What one hitter should fantasy owners look into picking up that is owned in less than 20% of Leagues?
Quick, which hitter ranks in the top 15 in hard contact rate, is on a 162-game pace of more than 30 home runs, and is eligible at three positions? Little-owned Max Muncy, that's who. Muncy wasn't a huge prospect and never showed a lot of pop in the minors, but he's hitting well and batting near the top of the Dodgers' lineup. He's making an incredible amount of hard contact and looks like he could be yet another example of a player who vastly outperforms his power numbers from the minors once he reaches the show.
What one starting pitcher should fantasy owners look into picking up that is owned in less than 20% of Leagues?
Carlos Rodon is a pitcher that fantasy owners should have had stashed on their DL spot for awhile, but judging by his 6% ownership, they haven't. Rodon has teased fantasy owners for years, but his potential to be a difference-maker is exactly why he should be picked up before he is activated, which should be soon. He is coming off a dominant rehab outing, with eight strikeouts over five innings, and has allowed just one run total in his three starts. At this point, no one needs another pitcher who will give you five innings and allow three runs with middling strikeout numbers. If you're looking for high upside on your bench, and you should be, look to add Rodon immediately.
Quick, which hitter ranks in the top 15 in hard contact rate, is on a 162-game pace of more than 30 home runs, and is eligible at three positions? Little-owned Max Muncy, that's who. Muncy wasn't a huge prospect and never showed a lot of pop in the minors, but he's hitting well and batting near the top of the Dodgers' lineup. He's making an incredible amount of hard contact and looks like he could be yet another example of a player who vastly outperforms his power numbers from the minors once he reaches the show.
What one starting pitcher should fantasy owners look into picking up that is owned in less than 20% of Leagues?
Carlos Rodon is a pitcher that fantasy owners should have had stashed on their DL spot for awhile, but judging by his 6% ownership, they haven't. Rodon has teased fantasy owners for years, but his potential to be a difference-maker is exactly why he should be picked up before he is activated, which should be soon. He is coming off a dominant rehab outing, with eight strikeouts over five innings, and has allowed just one run total in his three starts. At this point, no one needs another pitcher who will give you five innings and allow three runs with middling strikeout numbers. If you're looking for high upside on your bench, and you should be, look to add Rodon immediately.
Featured Pros: Buy Low, Sell High
What one player are you trying to buy low and what type of player would you give up to get him?
Ordinarily, I wouldn't think that Paul Goldschmidt owners would dare sell low on an elite player, but from what I can tell, his owners are panicking. Yes, Goldschmidt has been awful, and a 31.4% strikeout percentage combined with a .695 OPS is enough to raise some red flags. But no, humidor or no, a 30-year-old elite player does not simply fall off a cliff. Goldschmidt's awful season is really just an awful May (.900 OPS in April, .425 in May), and there's no way to draw any conclusions about a tough few-week stretch. I'd be looking to see if I could nab Goldschmidt for a Carlos Carrasco or Tommy Pham type of player, but would be willing to give a little more if necessary.
What one player are you trying to sell high right now and who would you want in return?
It has nothing to do with his talent, but I'd look to move James Paxton if I could get an elite player. Paxton has been outstanding this season, with the best strikeout rate of his career and a no-hitter under his belt. But Paxton's innings year-by-year are as follows: 95, 106 1/3, 169 2/3, 87, 73 2/3, 171 2/3, 140. As good as he is, the chances of him topping 170 innings seems minimal, and he's already at 62 2/3. I'd think of him as a top-10 starter and try to deal him for someone like George Springer or an underachieving slugger like Anthony Rizzo.
Ordinarily, I wouldn't think that Paul Goldschmidt owners would dare sell low on an elite player, but from what I can tell, his owners are panicking. Yes, Goldschmidt has been awful, and a 31.4% strikeout percentage combined with a .695 OPS is enough to raise some red flags. But no, humidor or no, a 30-year-old elite player does not simply fall off a cliff. Goldschmidt's awful season is really just an awful May (.900 OPS in April, .425 in May), and there's no way to draw any conclusions about a tough few-week stretch. I'd be looking to see if I could nab Goldschmidt for a Carlos Carrasco or Tommy Pham type of player, but would be willing to give a little more if necessary.
What one player are you trying to sell high right now and who would you want in return?
It has nothing to do with his talent, but I'd look to move James Paxton if I could get an elite player. Paxton has been outstanding this season, with the best strikeout rate of his career and a no-hitter under his belt. But Paxton's innings year-by-year are as follows: 95, 106 1/3, 169 2/3, 87, 73 2/3, 171 2/3, 140. As good as he is, the chances of him topping 170 innings seems minimal, and he's already at 62 2/3. I'd think of him as a top-10 starter and try to deal him for someone like George Springer or an underachieving slugger like Anthony Rizzo.
Featured Pros: Under-the-Radar Waiver Pickups
What one hitter should fantasy owners look into picking up that is owned in less than 20% of Leagues?
Daniel Descalso has somehow played his way into consideration in most fantasy leagues. A super-utility player, Descalso has shined with regular playing time in Jake Lamb's absence, slashing .261/.363/.514. and upping his pull percentage and his hard contact and fly-ball rates. Lamb should be back shortly but with A.J. Pollock's injury and Descalso's versatility, he should be able to stick in the lineup more often than not. With eligibility all over the diamond, he's an ideal bench pickup at least for fantasy owners.
What one starting pitcher should fantasy owners look into picking up that is owned in less than 20% of Leagues?
In Vince Velasquez's last three starts (one of which was against the Nationals), he's thrown 17 1/3 innings and allowed four runs and 18 base-runners, while striking out 21. Yes, his bouts with control can be maddening and yes, there will be bumps in the road. But he has a 27.1% strikeout rate, and both his FIP and xFIP suggests that his 4.37 ERA should be lower. When you're looking to fill your bench with pitchers, you need high upside, and Velasquez is oozing with potential. His ownership percentage is far too low.
Daniel Descalso has somehow played his way into consideration in most fantasy leagues. A super-utility player, Descalso has shined with regular playing time in Jake Lamb's absence, slashing .261/.363/.514. and upping his pull percentage and his hard contact and fly-ball rates. Lamb should be back shortly but with A.J. Pollock's injury and Descalso's versatility, he should be able to stick in the lineup more often than not. With eligibility all over the diamond, he's an ideal bench pickup at least for fantasy owners.
What one starting pitcher should fantasy owners look into picking up that is owned in less than 20% of Leagues?
In Vince Velasquez's last three starts (one of which was against the Nationals), he's thrown 17 1/3 innings and allowed four runs and 18 base-runners, while striking out 21. Yes, his bouts with control can be maddening and yes, there will be bumps in the road. But he has a 27.1% strikeout rate, and both his FIP and xFIP suggests that his 4.37 ERA should be lower. When you're looking to fill your bench with pitchers, you need high upside, and Velasquez is oozing with potential. His ownership percentage is far too low.
Featured Pros: Fact or Fiction
Which player who is greatly outperforming his ADP will be able to sustain his performance and why?
Gerrit Cole was drafted as the 21st starting pitcher off the board and the 74th player overall, but he's my fourth-ranked starter for the rest of the season and I feel pretty confident in that ranking. Everything fantasy owners hoped for with his move to the Astros has happened: he's throwing his fastball much less (about 53% of the time, down from his usual 60-65%) and his breaking pitches much more. The result is a dramatic increase in swinging strike rate and an overall performance that is utterly supported by his underlying metrics. Do not be afraid to buy high here.
Which player is destined for negative regression despite his early season success and why?
Ozzie Albies is a wonderful player, but there's just no way he can sustain this pace. Yes, SunTrust Park is a hitter's haven and Francisco Lindor is an example of a player who has hit for much more power in the majors than the minors, but still, Albies isn't suddenly a 30-home run hitter overnight. He's not walking or stealing bases all that much, and when the power dries up a bit, as it likely will, Albies will simply be a good, but not great, asset. In the end, Albies will outperform his draft position, but I don't expect him to finish as a top second baseman.
What one player do you expect to positively regress after a slow start to the season?
I am entirely unconcerned with Willson Contreras' slow start. Although he's walking less, he's also striking out less, and he's reduced his abysmal 53.3% ground ball rate from last year to a passable 45.3% rate this year. Once the weather officially warms up in Chicago and the Cubs' offense picks up, Contreras will go back to putting up elite numbers for a catcher, and he should justify his draft position when all is said and done.
Gerrit Cole was drafted as the 21st starting pitcher off the board and the 74th player overall, but he's my fourth-ranked starter for the rest of the season and I feel pretty confident in that ranking. Everything fantasy owners hoped for with his move to the Astros has happened: he's throwing his fastball much less (about 53% of the time, down from his usual 60-65%) and his breaking pitches much more. The result is a dramatic increase in swinging strike rate and an overall performance that is utterly supported by his underlying metrics. Do not be afraid to buy high here.
Which player is destined for negative regression despite his early season success and why?
Ozzie Albies is a wonderful player, but there's just no way he can sustain this pace. Yes, SunTrust Park is a hitter's haven and Francisco Lindor is an example of a player who has hit for much more power in the majors than the minors, but still, Albies isn't suddenly a 30-home run hitter overnight. He's not walking or stealing bases all that much, and when the power dries up a bit, as it likely will, Albies will simply be a good, but not great, asset. In the end, Albies will outperform his draft position, but I don't expect him to finish as a top second baseman.
What one player do you expect to positively regress after a slow start to the season?
I am entirely unconcerned with Willson Contreras' slow start. Although he's walking less, he's also striking out less, and he's reduced his abysmal 53.3% ground ball rate from last year to a passable 45.3% rate this year. Once the weather officially warms up in Chicago and the Cubs' offense picks up, Contreras will go back to putting up elite numbers for a catcher, and he should justify his draft position when all is said and done.
Featured Pros: Buy Low, Sell High
What one player are you trying to buy low and what type of player would you give up to get him?
I'm not 100% confident in buying low on Yu Darvish, but I'm still trying to do it wherever I can. There are plenty of warning signs for Darvish at this point - his strikeout rate is down and his walk rate is way up, even for him. But, he remains immensely talented and his O-Swing and O-Contact percentages suggest that he may still be tipping his pitches, which is a problem he had in the World Series and should be correctable. I'd look to try to sell high on young pitchers like Blake Snell or Sean Manaea who are off to great starts, but would be willing to give up solid hitters like Yoenis Cespedes or Justin Upton. The chance to buy low on a potential ace doesn't come around often, and it's worth the risk.
What one player are you trying to sell high right now and who would you want in return?
I'm not sure if you can truly sell high on Jed Lowrie right now, but if so, I'd take a decent return and run. He's off to an incredible start but there are plenty of warning signs, including an inflated .387 BABIP (.297 career) and a high 38.6% ground ball rate (32.7% career). Regression is surely coming, and his health concerns (he's topped 100 games just three times in his career) make him an ideal sell-high candidate. I'd swap him for a host of disappointing or injured second base-eligible players (Ian Kinsler, Rougned Odor, Chris Taylor) or any top-40 starter, without hesitation.
I'm not 100% confident in buying low on Yu Darvish, but I'm still trying to do it wherever I can. There are plenty of warning signs for Darvish at this point - his strikeout rate is down and his walk rate is way up, even for him. But, he remains immensely talented and his O-Swing and O-Contact percentages suggest that he may still be tipping his pitches, which is a problem he had in the World Series and should be correctable. I'd look to try to sell high on young pitchers like Blake Snell or Sean Manaea who are off to great starts, but would be willing to give up solid hitters like Yoenis Cespedes or Justin Upton. The chance to buy low on a potential ace doesn't come around often, and it's worth the risk.
What one player are you trying to sell high right now and who would you want in return?
I'm not sure if you can truly sell high on Jed Lowrie right now, but if so, I'd take a decent return and run. He's off to an incredible start but there are plenty of warning signs, including an inflated .387 BABIP (.297 career) and a high 38.6% ground ball rate (32.7% career). Regression is surely coming, and his health concerns (he's topped 100 games just three times in his career) make him an ideal sell-high candidate. I'd swap him for a host of disappointing or injured second base-eligible players (Ian Kinsler, Rougned Odor, Chris Taylor) or any top-40 starter, without hesitation.
Featured Pros: Buy Low, Sell High
What one player are you trying to buy low and what type of player would you give up to get him?
I'm not necessarily trying to buy low on Edwin Encarnacion, but that's only because I own him everywhere. Trying to acquire Encarnacion right now, even at a reduced price, is not without risk. He's at an age (35) where he could easily fall off a cliff, and he's batting at an historically awful pace. But he looked absolutely done last April (.200/.343/.353) and the April before that (.250/.298/.396) and the April before that (.205/.258/.352), before rebounding to have his typical season. I'd look to flip him for an Eric Hosmer/Miguel Cabrera type, but would have no problem giving up someone like Marcell Ozuna, Lorenzo Cain, or Tommy Pham.
What one player are you trying to sell high right now and who would you want in return?
I'd look to move Ozzie Albies if I could right now, as he's the perfect combination of prospect pedigree plus over-performance for a sell-high candidate. Albies has a bright future, but his five home runs and nearly 1.000 OPS may have some believing he's something he isn't. He's walking just 2.5% of the time and has a 19.2% HR/FB rate. Albies should be valuable, but there are obviously many owners who are starting to buy into him as a true fantasy stud. I'd gladly flip him for other similarly-ranked second basemen (Dee Gordon, Robinson Cano) or under-performing or injured players like Wil Myers, Miguel Sano, or Anthony Rendon.
I'm not necessarily trying to buy low on Edwin Encarnacion, but that's only because I own him everywhere. Trying to acquire Encarnacion right now, even at a reduced price, is not without risk. He's at an age (35) where he could easily fall off a cliff, and he's batting at an historically awful pace. But he looked absolutely done last April (.200/.343/.353) and the April before that (.250/.298/.396) and the April before that (.205/.258/.352), before rebounding to have his typical season. I'd look to flip him for an Eric Hosmer/Miguel Cabrera type, but would have no problem giving up someone like Marcell Ozuna, Lorenzo Cain, or Tommy Pham.
What one player are you trying to sell high right now and who would you want in return?
I'd look to move Ozzie Albies if I could right now, as he's the perfect combination of prospect pedigree plus over-performance for a sell-high candidate. Albies has a bright future, but his five home runs and nearly 1.000 OPS may have some believing he's something he isn't. He's walking just 2.5% of the time and has a 19.2% HR/FB rate. Albies should be valuable, but there are obviously many owners who are starting to buy into him as a true fantasy stud. I'd gladly flip him for other similarly-ranked second basemen (Dee Gordon, Robinson Cano) or under-performing or injured players like Wil Myers, Miguel Sano, or Anthony Rendon.
Featured Pros: Under-the-Radar Waiver Pickups
What one hitter should fantasy owners look into picking up that is owned in less than 25% of Leagues?
Amed Rosario is the perfect blend of potential plus opportunity. An elite prospect, Rosario had a disastrous debut in the majors last season, which led to him being largely forgotten in fantasy circles during draft time. But he's off to an excellent start so far this season, batting .333 with an .842 OPS so far. Rosario is batting ninth, which will limit his plate appearances, but should also allow him to utilize his speed and tack on 20 or 25 steals over the course of the season. At a thin position, Rosario could easily be an impact player, and should at least be more widely owned as a middle infield option.
What one starting pitcher should fantasy owners look into picking up that is owned in less than 25% of Leagues?
Jack Flaherty barely makes the cut at 24% ownership, but that number needs to be doubled or tripled immediately. His debut against the Brewers was electric, with nine strikeouts in just five innings. Yes, he's been relegated to the minors for now, but if you watched Adam Wainwright pitch on Thursday, you know Flaherty won't be there for long. Pitchers who are widely available who can even sniff "fantasy ace" potential are few and far between, but Flaherty is one of them. Make some room on your bench, add him immediately before he gets called back up, and avoid the rush.
Amed Rosario is the perfect blend of potential plus opportunity. An elite prospect, Rosario had a disastrous debut in the majors last season, which led to him being largely forgotten in fantasy circles during draft time. But he's off to an excellent start so far this season, batting .333 with an .842 OPS so far. Rosario is batting ninth, which will limit his plate appearances, but should also allow him to utilize his speed and tack on 20 or 25 steals over the course of the season. At a thin position, Rosario could easily be an impact player, and should at least be more widely owned as a middle infield option.
What one starting pitcher should fantasy owners look into picking up that is owned in less than 25% of Leagues?
Jack Flaherty barely makes the cut at 24% ownership, but that number needs to be doubled or tripled immediately. His debut against the Brewers was electric, with nine strikeouts in just five innings. Yes, he's been relegated to the minors for now, but if you watched Adam Wainwright pitch on Thursday, you know Flaherty won't be there for long. Pitchers who are widely available who can even sniff "fantasy ace" potential are few and far between, but Flaherty is one of them. Make some room on your bench, add him immediately before he gets called back up, and avoid the rush.
Featured Pros: Players You'll Regret not Drafting
Please name one hitter ranked outside the top 50 in the expert consensus that owners will regret the most not drafting.
Travis Shaw had a breakout season in 2017 and, in light of his move to Miller Park and the changes in his approach, fantasy owners should be buying in. Shaw clearly focused on being more patient and making more contact last year, and unlike many of his fellow players, actually reduced his fly ball rate, which led to his increase in batting average. But what really stands out and makes Shaw someone to target are his home road splits: .255/.327/.452 at home and .291/.370/.571 on the road. Shaw's infant daughter had health problems last year, and he talked about how much that distracted him when he was in Milwaukee, and which likely caused his poor numbers despite playing in the hitter-friendly Miller Park. With improvement at home this year probable, Shaw could be a monster for fantasy purposes.
Please name one starting pitcher ranked outside the top 25 in the expert consensus that owners will regret the most not drafting.
I really don't understand why the fantasy community leapt off the Johnny Cueto bandwagon so quickly after one injury-plagued year. Cueto, like several pitchers last year, battled blisters, which led to decreased movement in his pitches and a lack of command. Rather than attribute his decline to the blisters, everyone seems to be viewing him as someone who hit a wall and suddenly completely lost the strike zone (8.2% walk rate vs. 6.9% career). I'm just not buying that as the case, as his strikeout rate remained relatively consistent and there was little before last year to suggest a decline was imminent. With an improved team behind him, I'm willing to give Cueto a pass (for the most part) last year, and I am trying to scoop him up everywhere I can.
Travis Shaw had a breakout season in 2017 and, in light of his move to Miller Park and the changes in his approach, fantasy owners should be buying in. Shaw clearly focused on being more patient and making more contact last year, and unlike many of his fellow players, actually reduced his fly ball rate, which led to his increase in batting average. But what really stands out and makes Shaw someone to target are his home road splits: .255/.327/.452 at home and .291/.370/.571 on the road. Shaw's infant daughter had health problems last year, and he talked about how much that distracted him when he was in Milwaukee, and which likely caused his poor numbers despite playing in the hitter-friendly Miller Park. With improvement at home this year probable, Shaw could be a monster for fantasy purposes.
Please name one starting pitcher ranked outside the top 25 in the expert consensus that owners will regret the most not drafting.
I really don't understand why the fantasy community leapt off the Johnny Cueto bandwagon so quickly after one injury-plagued year. Cueto, like several pitchers last year, battled blisters, which led to decreased movement in his pitches and a lack of command. Rather than attribute his decline to the blisters, everyone seems to be viewing him as someone who hit a wall and suddenly completely lost the strike zone (8.2% walk rate vs. 6.9% career). I'm just not buying that as the case, as his strikeout rate remained relatively consistent and there was little before last year to suggest a decline was imminent. With an improved team behind him, I'm willing to give Cueto a pass (for the most part) last year, and I am trying to scoop him up everywhere I can.
Featured Pros: Spring Training Risers & Fallers
Who has seen their fantasy stock rise the most for you based on spring training?
Delino DeShields has gone from a draft-day afterthought to one of the biggest risers so far. His performance this spring (.340 batting average, .426 OBP, four steals) should establish him as an everyday player, and Jeff Banister has stated that DeShields should bat leadoff and should have a chance at 50 steals. With stolen bases always scarce and players like Billy Hamilton being drafted way too early, DeShields makes a perfect selection in the mid-to-late rounds, and his price seems to go up every day.
Who has seen their fantasy stock fall the most for you based on spring training?
Shohei Ohtani's stock has fallen precipitously so far, although I'm not sure it's necessarily warranted. His results have been poor (27.00 ERA), of course, but there's little reason to doubt his skill or ability to succeed in the majors as a pitcher. Although his struggles as a hitter seem like they may translate, it's doubtful that many fantasy owners were factoring that side of him into his draft price, anyway. In the end, Ohtani's draft stock was inflated to begin with, even among the expert community, because of his potential. His spring training has made his stock fall, but, in my opinion, only to where it should have been in the first place.
Delino DeShields has gone from a draft-day afterthought to one of the biggest risers so far. His performance this spring (.340 batting average, .426 OBP, four steals) should establish him as an everyday player, and Jeff Banister has stated that DeShields should bat leadoff and should have a chance at 50 steals. With stolen bases always scarce and players like Billy Hamilton being drafted way too early, DeShields makes a perfect selection in the mid-to-late rounds, and his price seems to go up every day.
Who has seen their fantasy stock fall the most for you based on spring training?
Shohei Ohtani's stock has fallen precipitously so far, although I'm not sure it's necessarily warranted. His results have been poor (27.00 ERA), of course, but there's little reason to doubt his skill or ability to succeed in the majors as a pitcher. Although his struggles as a hitter seem like they may translate, it's doubtful that many fantasy owners were factoring that side of him into his draft price, anyway. In the end, Ohtani's draft stock was inflated to begin with, even among the expert community, because of his potential. His spring training has made his stock fall, but, in my opinion, only to where it should have been in the first place.
Player Note on Marcell Ozuna (LF - STL)
There was a narrative prior to the 2017 season that Ozuna had already started his breakout but it had just been slowed down by injuries. That narrative looked to be accurate after Ozuna surpassed all reasonable expectations last season, hitting 37 home runs and tallying 124 RBI. His move to the Cardinals keeps him in a strong lineup and should buoy his counting stats once again. Of all his growth, nothing looks particularly unsupported by the underlying metrics other than perhaps his batting average (.312), which was far out of whack with his career norms and boosted by a likely unsustainable BABIP. But as a reliable and solid outfielder? Ozuna certainly makes the grade.
Player Note on Billy Hamilton (CF - CIN)
The problem for Hamilton is that he's shown almost no growth over his Major League career. His strikeout rate continues to rise, and his poor walk rate, slugging percentage, and batting average remain stagnant. But what's not a problem for Hamilton is speed - he's stolen between 56 and 59 bases in each of the past four seasons, and essentially guarantees his owners that they will be competitive in steals. One-category producers are difficult to value in fantasy baseball, but given how scarce speed is and how dominant Hamilton is in the category, he is still an extremely desirable commodity until he proves otherwise.
Player Note on Nelson Cruz (RF,DH - SEA)
If you took Cruz's advancing age out of the equation, he'd probably be a second-round pick every year. He hit 39 home runs last year, which was his lowest total since 2013, telling you all you need to know about his prodigious power. Far from a decline, there were actually signs of growth from Cruz, and he posted the highest walk-rate of his career and dropped his strikeout-rate two percentage points from 2016. Simply put, other than the fact that the end comes for everyone (except David Ortiz), there is no reason to doubt that Cruz will once again put up an elite power season.
Player Note on Alex Bregman (3B,SS - HOU)
Both in his 49-game cameo in 2016 and his full season last year, Bregman got off to a painfully slow start before coming on strong in the latter part of the season. He carried over his excellent second half last year (.903 OPS) into the playoffs, where he became a household name with home runs in the World Series off of Clayton Kershaw and Kenley Jansen. All the signs point to a breakout for the youngster, as his strong strikeout- and walk-rates, and his rare power-speed combination, make him an intriguing option. The problem is that Bregman is exactly the type of guy who will be on everyone's "breakout" list, and you'll likely need to pay a high price for him if you want him on your team.
Player Note on Justin Verlander (SP - HOU)
Verlander topped 200 innings pitched in 2017 for the 10th time in the last 11 seasons. Although he's developing a pattern of struggling in the first half before righting the ship, his numbers end up right where they need to be ay season's end. The trade to Houston, with its improved defense and playoff-caliber team, only seemed to revive Verlander, which bodes well for his near future. Although he has had an enormous workload in his career and the wheels could always come off at any moment, it's still hard to find many pitchers who you can feel comfortable with give you better all-around numbers.
Player Note on Luis Severino (SP - NYY)
Severino had his breakout season and then some, going 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA and a 10.71 K/9 ratio. Armed with elite velocity, Severino kept his walks in check and pounded the zone far more than he had shown in the past, and the results were encouraging, with his FIP and xFIP staying right in line with his overall numbers. He still pitches in an extreme hitter's park, of course, but with what he showed last season, and with the potential for further growth, Severino should be drafted among the top-10 starters.
Player Note on Anthony Rendon (3B - WSH)
Rendon simply had a fantastic year in 2017, batting over .300 with solid counting stats all around. Perhaps most impressively, Rendon upped his walk-rate and dropped his strikeout significantly, so much so that he was one of just a few players to have more walks than strikeouts last year. The only thing truly keeping him down was Dusty Baker's insistence on batting him sixth, which depressed his run scored total (just 81). That shouldn't be a problem this year under Dave Martinez and, health-willing, Rendon should continue his growth as a hitter and perhaps put up a career-best season.
Player Note on A.J. Pollock (CF - ARI)
Pollock fought through groin injuries and again missed significant time, playing just 112 games. He still found his way to a productive season, hitting 14 home runs and stealing 20 bases, though his stolen base production waned considerably in the second half. With the humidor coming to Arizona, Pollock's solid power will likely take a hit, and so too will his fantasy prospects. Still, his speed makes him valuable, and he should make a fine, though not elite, fantasy outfielder.
Player Note on Andrew Benintendi (LF,CF - BOS)
It's rare that a 20-20 rookie season feels disappointing, but that's exactly how it was for Benintendi. Always a high-average hitter in the minors, Benintendi hit just .271, the lowest he has hit in any level. But all the signs are there that Benintendi will improve on his already impressive numbers this year. He dropped his strikeout-rate and upped his walk-rate significantly from his 2016 cup of coffee, and his numbers against lefties (.622 OPS) are bound to come up. That means that Benintendi's average is bound to rise, and so too will his already excellent counting stats. A breakout is likely coming, so buy in accordingly.
Player Note on Justin Upton (LF - LAA)
Upton quietly had a career-season in 2017, hitting 35 home runs, stealing 14 bases, and topping both 100 runs and 100 RBI. He'll continue to bat in the middle of a suddenly strong Angels lineup, and is as durable as they come, with at least 149 games played in seven straight seasons. Although his strikeout rate continues to hover above 28%, Upton hits the ball so hard that his batting average should remain passable. Though he's been around for what feels like forever, Upton is still in his prime at just 30 years old, and should be in for another strong power season.
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Featured Pros: Under-the-Radar Waiver Pickups
What one hitter should fantasy owners look into picking up that is owned in less than 20% of Leagues?
If you're sitting with anyone other than the top five or six options at catcher, little-owned Tom Murphy is a player who I'd look to add immediately. Murphy has been absolutely crushing it in Triple-A this season, slashing .289/.359/.642 with 16 home runs in just 49 games. He's done well with the Rockies since his call-up, and word is that they want him to be the everyday catcher. With the dearth of reliable options, he's a solid speculative add for leagues deeper than 10-teamers, and is one of the few options that has a legitimate chance of being a potential top-five option at his position rest of season.
What one starting pitcher should fantasy owners look into picking up that is owned in less than 20% of Leagues?
With the caveat that I'm not super excited about any starting pitcher currently owned in less than 20% of leagues, I'd take a stab with Dylan Covey. Since his first start, Covey has given up a total of five earned runs over his last five starts, which includes two matchups against the Indians and one against the Red Sox. He doesn't have electric stuff and wins could be an issue playing for the White Sox, but his performance thus far is supported. He has a 2.15 FIP and a 3.30 xFIP, and is allowing just a 29.5% hard contact rate against. Covey isn't someone who is going to win your league for you. But he certainly fits the mold of someone who you can stick in the back end of your rotation and not worry about.
If you're sitting with anyone other than the top five or six options at catcher, little-owned Tom Murphy is a player who I'd look to add immediately. Murphy has been absolutely crushing it in Triple-A this season, slashing .289/.359/.642 with 16 home runs in just 49 games. He's done well with the Rockies since his call-up, and word is that they want him to be the everyday catcher. With the dearth of reliable options, he's a solid speculative add for leagues deeper than 10-teamers, and is one of the few options that has a legitimate chance of being a potential top-five option at his position rest of season.
What one starting pitcher should fantasy owners look into picking up that is owned in less than 20% of Leagues?
With the caveat that I'm not super excited about any starting pitcher currently owned in less than 20% of leagues, I'd take a stab with Dylan Covey. Since his first start, Covey has given up a total of five earned runs over his last five starts, which includes two matchups against the Indians and one against the Red Sox. He doesn't have electric stuff and wins could be an issue playing for the White Sox, but his performance thus far is supported. He has a 2.15 FIP and a 3.30 xFIP, and is allowing just a 29.5% hard contact rate against. Covey isn't someone who is going to win your league for you. But he certainly fits the mold of someone who you can stick in the back end of your rotation and not worry about.
Featured Pros: Under-the-Radar Waiver Pickups
What one hitter should fantasy owners look into picking up that is owned in less than 20% of Leagues?
Quick, which hitter ranks in the top 15 in hard contact rate, is on a 162-game pace of more than 30 home runs, and is eligible at three positions? Little-owned Max Muncy, that's who. Muncy wasn't a huge prospect and never showed a lot of pop in the minors, but he's hitting well and batting near the top of the Dodgers' lineup. He's making an incredible amount of hard contact and looks like he could be yet another example of a player who vastly outperforms his power numbers from the minors once he reaches the show.
What one starting pitcher should fantasy owners look into picking up that is owned in less than 20% of Leagues?
Carlos Rodon is a pitcher that fantasy owners should have had stashed on their DL spot for awhile, but judging by his 6% ownership, they haven't. Rodon has teased fantasy owners for years, but his potential to be a difference-maker is exactly why he should be picked up before he is activated, which should be soon. He is coming off a dominant rehab outing, with eight strikeouts over five innings, and has allowed just one run total in his three starts. At this point, no one needs another pitcher who will give you five innings and allow three runs with middling strikeout numbers. If you're looking for high upside on your bench, and you should be, look to add Rodon immediately.
Quick, which hitter ranks in the top 15 in hard contact rate, is on a 162-game pace of more than 30 home runs, and is eligible at three positions? Little-owned Max Muncy, that's who. Muncy wasn't a huge prospect and never showed a lot of pop in the minors, but he's hitting well and batting near the top of the Dodgers' lineup. He's making an incredible amount of hard contact and looks like he could be yet another example of a player who vastly outperforms his power numbers from the minors once he reaches the show.
What one starting pitcher should fantasy owners look into picking up that is owned in less than 20% of Leagues?
Carlos Rodon is a pitcher that fantasy owners should have had stashed on their DL spot for awhile, but judging by his 6% ownership, they haven't. Rodon has teased fantasy owners for years, but his potential to be a difference-maker is exactly why he should be picked up before he is activated, which should be soon. He is coming off a dominant rehab outing, with eight strikeouts over five innings, and has allowed just one run total in his three starts. At this point, no one needs another pitcher who will give you five innings and allow three runs with middling strikeout numbers. If you're looking for high upside on your bench, and you should be, look to add Rodon immediately.
Featured Pros: Buy Low, Sell High
What one player are you trying to buy low and what type of player would you give up to get him?
Ordinarily, I wouldn't think that Paul Goldschmidt owners would dare sell low on an elite player, but from what I can tell, his owners are panicking. Yes, Goldschmidt has been awful, and a 31.4% strikeout percentage combined with a .695 OPS is enough to raise some red flags. But no, humidor or no, a 30-year-old elite player does not simply fall off a cliff. Goldschmidt's awful season is really just an awful May (.900 OPS in April, .425 in May), and there's no way to draw any conclusions about a tough few-week stretch. I'd be looking to see if I could nab Goldschmidt for a Carlos Carrasco or Tommy Pham type of player, but would be willing to give a little more if necessary.
What one player are you trying to sell high right now and who would you want in return?
It has nothing to do with his talent, but I'd look to move James Paxton if I could get an elite player. Paxton has been outstanding this season, with the best strikeout rate of his career and a no-hitter under his belt. But Paxton's innings year-by-year are as follows: 95, 106 1/3, 169 2/3, 87, 73 2/3, 171 2/3, 140. As good as he is, the chances of him topping 170 innings seems minimal, and he's already at 62 2/3. I'd think of him as a top-10 starter and try to deal him for someone like George Springer or an underachieving slugger like Anthony Rizzo.
Ordinarily, I wouldn't think that Paul Goldschmidt owners would dare sell low on an elite player, but from what I can tell, his owners are panicking. Yes, Goldschmidt has been awful, and a 31.4% strikeout percentage combined with a .695 OPS is enough to raise some red flags. But no, humidor or no, a 30-year-old elite player does not simply fall off a cliff. Goldschmidt's awful season is really just an awful May (.900 OPS in April, .425 in May), and there's no way to draw any conclusions about a tough few-week stretch. I'd be looking to see if I could nab Goldschmidt for a Carlos Carrasco or Tommy Pham type of player, but would be willing to give a little more if necessary.
What one player are you trying to sell high right now and who would you want in return?
It has nothing to do with his talent, but I'd look to move James Paxton if I could get an elite player. Paxton has been outstanding this season, with the best strikeout rate of his career and a no-hitter under his belt. But Paxton's innings year-by-year are as follows: 95, 106 1/3, 169 2/3, 87, 73 2/3, 171 2/3, 140. As good as he is, the chances of him topping 170 innings seems minimal, and he's already at 62 2/3. I'd think of him as a top-10 starter and try to deal him for someone like George Springer or an underachieving slugger like Anthony Rizzo.
Featured Pros: Under-the-Radar Waiver Pickups
What one hitter should fantasy owners look into picking up that is owned in less than 20% of Leagues?
Daniel Descalso has somehow played his way into consideration in most fantasy leagues. A super-utility player, Descalso has shined with regular playing time in Jake Lamb's absence, slashing .261/.363/.514. and upping his pull percentage and his hard contact and fly-ball rates. Lamb should be back shortly but with A.J. Pollock's injury and Descalso's versatility, he should be able to stick in the lineup more often than not. With eligibility all over the diamond, he's an ideal bench pickup at least for fantasy owners.
What one starting pitcher should fantasy owners look into picking up that is owned in less than 20% of Leagues?
In Vince Velasquez's last three starts (one of which was against the Nationals), he's thrown 17 1/3 innings and allowed four runs and 18 base-runners, while striking out 21. Yes, his bouts with control can be maddening and yes, there will be bumps in the road. But he has a 27.1% strikeout rate, and both his FIP and xFIP suggests that his 4.37 ERA should be lower. When you're looking to fill your bench with pitchers, you need high upside, and Velasquez is oozing with potential. His ownership percentage is far too low.
Daniel Descalso has somehow played his way into consideration in most fantasy leagues. A super-utility player, Descalso has shined with regular playing time in Jake Lamb's absence, slashing .261/.363/.514. and upping his pull percentage and his hard contact and fly-ball rates. Lamb should be back shortly but with A.J. Pollock's injury and Descalso's versatility, he should be able to stick in the lineup more often than not. With eligibility all over the diamond, he's an ideal bench pickup at least for fantasy owners.
What one starting pitcher should fantasy owners look into picking up that is owned in less than 20% of Leagues?
In Vince Velasquez's last three starts (one of which was against the Nationals), he's thrown 17 1/3 innings and allowed four runs and 18 base-runners, while striking out 21. Yes, his bouts with control can be maddening and yes, there will be bumps in the road. But he has a 27.1% strikeout rate, and both his FIP and xFIP suggests that his 4.37 ERA should be lower. When you're looking to fill your bench with pitchers, you need high upside, and Velasquez is oozing with potential. His ownership percentage is far too low.
Featured Pros: Fact or Fiction
Which player who is greatly outperforming his ADP will be able to sustain his performance and why?
Gerrit Cole was drafted as the 21st starting pitcher off the board and the 74th player overall, but he's my fourth-ranked starter for the rest of the season and I feel pretty confident in that ranking. Everything fantasy owners hoped for with his move to the Astros has happened: he's throwing his fastball much less (about 53% of the time, down from his usual 60-65%) and his breaking pitches much more. The result is a dramatic increase in swinging strike rate and an overall performance that is utterly supported by his underlying metrics. Do not be afraid to buy high here.
Which player is destined for negative regression despite his early season success and why?
Ozzie Albies is a wonderful player, but there's just no way he can sustain this pace. Yes, SunTrust Park is a hitter's haven and Francisco Lindor is an example of a player who has hit for much more power in the majors than the minors, but still, Albies isn't suddenly a 30-home run hitter overnight. He's not walking or stealing bases all that much, and when the power dries up a bit, as it likely will, Albies will simply be a good, but not great, asset. In the end, Albies will outperform his draft position, but I don't expect him to finish as a top second baseman.
What one player do you expect to positively regress after a slow start to the season?
I am entirely unconcerned with Willson Contreras' slow start. Although he's walking less, he's also striking out less, and he's reduced his abysmal 53.3% ground ball rate from last year to a passable 45.3% rate this year. Once the weather officially warms up in Chicago and the Cubs' offense picks up, Contreras will go back to putting up elite numbers for a catcher, and he should justify his draft position when all is said and done.
Gerrit Cole was drafted as the 21st starting pitcher off the board and the 74th player overall, but he's my fourth-ranked starter for the rest of the season and I feel pretty confident in that ranking. Everything fantasy owners hoped for with his move to the Astros has happened: he's throwing his fastball much less (about 53% of the time, down from his usual 60-65%) and his breaking pitches much more. The result is a dramatic increase in swinging strike rate and an overall performance that is utterly supported by his underlying metrics. Do not be afraid to buy high here.
Which player is destined for negative regression despite his early season success and why?
Ozzie Albies is a wonderful player, but there's just no way he can sustain this pace. Yes, SunTrust Park is a hitter's haven and Francisco Lindor is an example of a player who has hit for much more power in the majors than the minors, but still, Albies isn't suddenly a 30-home run hitter overnight. He's not walking or stealing bases all that much, and when the power dries up a bit, as it likely will, Albies will simply be a good, but not great, asset. In the end, Albies will outperform his draft position, but I don't expect him to finish as a top second baseman.
What one player do you expect to positively regress after a slow start to the season?
I am entirely unconcerned with Willson Contreras' slow start. Although he's walking less, he's also striking out less, and he's reduced his abysmal 53.3% ground ball rate from last year to a passable 45.3% rate this year. Once the weather officially warms up in Chicago and the Cubs' offense picks up, Contreras will go back to putting up elite numbers for a catcher, and he should justify his draft position when all is said and done.
Featured Pros: Buy Low, Sell High
What one player are you trying to buy low and what type of player would you give up to get him?
I'm not 100% confident in buying low on Yu Darvish, but I'm still trying to do it wherever I can. There are plenty of warning signs for Darvish at this point - his strikeout rate is down and his walk rate is way up, even for him. But, he remains immensely talented and his O-Swing and O-Contact percentages suggest that he may still be tipping his pitches, which is a problem he had in the World Series and should be correctable. I'd look to try to sell high on young pitchers like Blake Snell or Sean Manaea who are off to great starts, but would be willing to give up solid hitters like Yoenis Cespedes or Justin Upton. The chance to buy low on a potential ace doesn't come around often, and it's worth the risk.
What one player are you trying to sell high right now and who would you want in return?
I'm not sure if you can truly sell high on Jed Lowrie right now, but if so, I'd take a decent return and run. He's off to an incredible start but there are plenty of warning signs, including an inflated .387 BABIP (.297 career) and a high 38.6% ground ball rate (32.7% career). Regression is surely coming, and his health concerns (he's topped 100 games just three times in his career) make him an ideal sell-high candidate. I'd swap him for a host of disappointing or injured second base-eligible players (Ian Kinsler, Rougned Odor, Chris Taylor) or any top-40 starter, without hesitation.
I'm not 100% confident in buying low on Yu Darvish, but I'm still trying to do it wherever I can. There are plenty of warning signs for Darvish at this point - his strikeout rate is down and his walk rate is way up, even for him. But, he remains immensely talented and his O-Swing and O-Contact percentages suggest that he may still be tipping his pitches, which is a problem he had in the World Series and should be correctable. I'd look to try to sell high on young pitchers like Blake Snell or Sean Manaea who are off to great starts, but would be willing to give up solid hitters like Yoenis Cespedes or Justin Upton. The chance to buy low on a potential ace doesn't come around often, and it's worth the risk.
What one player are you trying to sell high right now and who would you want in return?
I'm not sure if you can truly sell high on Jed Lowrie right now, but if so, I'd take a decent return and run. He's off to an incredible start but there are plenty of warning signs, including an inflated .387 BABIP (.297 career) and a high 38.6% ground ball rate (32.7% career). Regression is surely coming, and his health concerns (he's topped 100 games just three times in his career) make him an ideal sell-high candidate. I'd swap him for a host of disappointing or injured second base-eligible players (Ian Kinsler, Rougned Odor, Chris Taylor) or any top-40 starter, without hesitation.
Featured Pros: Buy Low, Sell High
What one player are you trying to buy low and what type of player would you give up to get him?
I'm not necessarily trying to buy low on Edwin Encarnacion, but that's only because I own him everywhere. Trying to acquire Encarnacion right now, even at a reduced price, is not without risk. He's at an age (35) where he could easily fall off a cliff, and he's batting at an historically awful pace. But he looked absolutely done last April (.200/.343/.353) and the April before that (.250/.298/.396) and the April before that (.205/.258/.352), before rebounding to have his typical season. I'd look to flip him for an Eric Hosmer/Miguel Cabrera type, but would have no problem giving up someone like Marcell Ozuna, Lorenzo Cain, or Tommy Pham.
What one player are you trying to sell high right now and who would you want in return?
I'd look to move Ozzie Albies if I could right now, as he's the perfect combination of prospect pedigree plus over-performance for a sell-high candidate. Albies has a bright future, but his five home runs and nearly 1.000 OPS may have some believing he's something he isn't. He's walking just 2.5% of the time and has a 19.2% HR/FB rate. Albies should be valuable, but there are obviously many owners who are starting to buy into him as a true fantasy stud. I'd gladly flip him for other similarly-ranked second basemen (Dee Gordon, Robinson Cano) or under-performing or injured players like Wil Myers, Miguel Sano, or Anthony Rendon.
I'm not necessarily trying to buy low on Edwin Encarnacion, but that's only because I own him everywhere. Trying to acquire Encarnacion right now, even at a reduced price, is not without risk. He's at an age (35) where he could easily fall off a cliff, and he's batting at an historically awful pace. But he looked absolutely done last April (.200/.343/.353) and the April before that (.250/.298/.396) and the April before that (.205/.258/.352), before rebounding to have his typical season. I'd look to flip him for an Eric Hosmer/Miguel Cabrera type, but would have no problem giving up someone like Marcell Ozuna, Lorenzo Cain, or Tommy Pham.
What one player are you trying to sell high right now and who would you want in return?
I'd look to move Ozzie Albies if I could right now, as he's the perfect combination of prospect pedigree plus over-performance for a sell-high candidate. Albies has a bright future, but his five home runs and nearly 1.000 OPS may have some believing he's something he isn't. He's walking just 2.5% of the time and has a 19.2% HR/FB rate. Albies should be valuable, but there are obviously many owners who are starting to buy into him as a true fantasy stud. I'd gladly flip him for other similarly-ranked second basemen (Dee Gordon, Robinson Cano) or under-performing or injured players like Wil Myers, Miguel Sano, or Anthony Rendon.
Featured Pros: Under-the-Radar Waiver Pickups
What one hitter should fantasy owners look into picking up that is owned in less than 25% of Leagues?
Amed Rosario is the perfect blend of potential plus opportunity. An elite prospect, Rosario had a disastrous debut in the majors last season, which led to him being largely forgotten in fantasy circles during draft time. But he's off to an excellent start so far this season, batting .333 with an .842 OPS so far. Rosario is batting ninth, which will limit his plate appearances, but should also allow him to utilize his speed and tack on 20 or 25 steals over the course of the season. At a thin position, Rosario could easily be an impact player, and should at least be more widely owned as a middle infield option.
What one starting pitcher should fantasy owners look into picking up that is owned in less than 25% of Leagues?
Jack Flaherty barely makes the cut at 24% ownership, but that number needs to be doubled or tripled immediately. His debut against the Brewers was electric, with nine strikeouts in just five innings. Yes, he's been relegated to the minors for now, but if you watched Adam Wainwright pitch on Thursday, you know Flaherty won't be there for long. Pitchers who are widely available who can even sniff "fantasy ace" potential are few and far between, but Flaherty is one of them. Make some room on your bench, add him immediately before he gets called back up, and avoid the rush.
Amed Rosario is the perfect blend of potential plus opportunity. An elite prospect, Rosario had a disastrous debut in the majors last season, which led to him being largely forgotten in fantasy circles during draft time. But he's off to an excellent start so far this season, batting .333 with an .842 OPS so far. Rosario is batting ninth, which will limit his plate appearances, but should also allow him to utilize his speed and tack on 20 or 25 steals over the course of the season. At a thin position, Rosario could easily be an impact player, and should at least be more widely owned as a middle infield option.
What one starting pitcher should fantasy owners look into picking up that is owned in less than 25% of Leagues?
Jack Flaherty barely makes the cut at 24% ownership, but that number needs to be doubled or tripled immediately. His debut against the Brewers was electric, with nine strikeouts in just five innings. Yes, he's been relegated to the minors for now, but if you watched Adam Wainwright pitch on Thursday, you know Flaherty won't be there for long. Pitchers who are widely available who can even sniff "fantasy ace" potential are few and far between, but Flaherty is one of them. Make some room on your bench, add him immediately before he gets called back up, and avoid the rush.
Featured Pros: Players You'll Regret not Drafting
Please name one hitter ranked outside the top 50 in the expert consensus that owners will regret the most not drafting.
Travis Shaw had a breakout season in 2017 and, in light of his move to Miller Park and the changes in his approach, fantasy owners should be buying in. Shaw clearly focused on being more patient and making more contact last year, and unlike many of his fellow players, actually reduced his fly ball rate, which led to his increase in batting average. But what really stands out and makes Shaw someone to target are his home road splits: .255/.327/.452 at home and .291/.370/.571 on the road. Shaw's infant daughter had health problems last year, and he talked about how much that distracted him when he was in Milwaukee, and which likely caused his poor numbers despite playing in the hitter-friendly Miller Park. With improvement at home this year probable, Shaw could be a monster for fantasy purposes.
Please name one starting pitcher ranked outside the top 25 in the expert consensus that owners will regret the most not drafting.
I really don't understand why the fantasy community leapt off the Johnny Cueto bandwagon so quickly after one injury-plagued year. Cueto, like several pitchers last year, battled blisters, which led to decreased movement in his pitches and a lack of command. Rather than attribute his decline to the blisters, everyone seems to be viewing him as someone who hit a wall and suddenly completely lost the strike zone (8.2% walk rate vs. 6.9% career). I'm just not buying that as the case, as his strikeout rate remained relatively consistent and there was little before last year to suggest a decline was imminent. With an improved team behind him, I'm willing to give Cueto a pass (for the most part) last year, and I am trying to scoop him up everywhere I can.
Travis Shaw had a breakout season in 2017 and, in light of his move to Miller Park and the changes in his approach, fantasy owners should be buying in. Shaw clearly focused on being more patient and making more contact last year, and unlike many of his fellow players, actually reduced his fly ball rate, which led to his increase in batting average. But what really stands out and makes Shaw someone to target are his home road splits: .255/.327/.452 at home and .291/.370/.571 on the road. Shaw's infant daughter had health problems last year, and he talked about how much that distracted him when he was in Milwaukee, and which likely caused his poor numbers despite playing in the hitter-friendly Miller Park. With improvement at home this year probable, Shaw could be a monster for fantasy purposes.
Please name one starting pitcher ranked outside the top 25 in the expert consensus that owners will regret the most not drafting.
I really don't understand why the fantasy community leapt off the Johnny Cueto bandwagon so quickly after one injury-plagued year. Cueto, like several pitchers last year, battled blisters, which led to decreased movement in his pitches and a lack of command. Rather than attribute his decline to the blisters, everyone seems to be viewing him as someone who hit a wall and suddenly completely lost the strike zone (8.2% walk rate vs. 6.9% career). I'm just not buying that as the case, as his strikeout rate remained relatively consistent and there was little before last year to suggest a decline was imminent. With an improved team behind him, I'm willing to give Cueto a pass (for the most part) last year, and I am trying to scoop him up everywhere I can.
Featured Pros: Spring Training Risers & Fallers
Who has seen their fantasy stock rise the most for you based on spring training?
Delino DeShields has gone from a draft-day afterthought to one of the biggest risers so far. His performance this spring (.340 batting average, .426 OBP, four steals) should establish him as an everyday player, and Jeff Banister has stated that DeShields should bat leadoff and should have a chance at 50 steals. With stolen bases always scarce and players like Billy Hamilton being drafted way too early, DeShields makes a perfect selection in the mid-to-late rounds, and his price seems to go up every day.
Who has seen their fantasy stock fall the most for you based on spring training?
Shohei Ohtani's stock has fallen precipitously so far, although I'm not sure it's necessarily warranted. His results have been poor (27.00 ERA), of course, but there's little reason to doubt his skill or ability to succeed in the majors as a pitcher. Although his struggles as a hitter seem like they may translate, it's doubtful that many fantasy owners were factoring that side of him into his draft price, anyway. In the end, Ohtani's draft stock was inflated to begin with, even among the expert community, because of his potential. His spring training has made his stock fall, but, in my opinion, only to where it should have been in the first place.
Delino DeShields has gone from a draft-day afterthought to one of the biggest risers so far. His performance this spring (.340 batting average, .426 OBP, four steals) should establish him as an everyday player, and Jeff Banister has stated that DeShields should bat leadoff and should have a chance at 50 steals. With stolen bases always scarce and players like Billy Hamilton being drafted way too early, DeShields makes a perfect selection in the mid-to-late rounds, and his price seems to go up every day.
Who has seen their fantasy stock fall the most for you based on spring training?
Shohei Ohtani's stock has fallen precipitously so far, although I'm not sure it's necessarily warranted. His results have been poor (27.00 ERA), of course, but there's little reason to doubt his skill or ability to succeed in the majors as a pitcher. Although his struggles as a hitter seem like they may translate, it's doubtful that many fantasy owners were factoring that side of him into his draft price, anyway. In the end, Ohtani's draft stock was inflated to begin with, even among the expert community, because of his potential. His spring training has made his stock fall, but, in my opinion, only to where it should have been in the first place.
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About
Father. Husband. MLB, NFL, and NBA Team Leader. Featured Writer. Host of the Sunday Night FantasyPros Football Podcast and the Leading Off Baseball Podcast. Writer of fantasy articles that have been alternatively referred to as "kinda funny," "mildly valuable," and "why do you keep making me read your fantasy articles?" That last one is from my wife. Fine, they're all from my wife. You caught me!
