Dan Harris

Neris has been named the Phillies' closer to start the season. Although he has been the Phillies' primary closer for the past four seasons, he's hardly been the model of efficiency. His ERA over those seasons is 3.01, 5.10, 2.93, and 4.57. And he surprisingly struggled with his control last year, seeking his BB/9 rate jump to 5.40 and his WHIP to 1.71. Neris's splitter is outstanding when it's on, but he has the tendency to get hit hard when it's not. With Archie Bradley and Jose Alvarado in tow, and Brandon Kintzler with the team on a minor league deal, Neris's leash will be short. Draft him as a low-end closer, but don't rush to do so.

Barnes may begin the year as the closer, but it's hardly a guarantee that he'll keep the role. His walk rate has been above 13% for each of the last two seasons, and his WHIP is 1.38 over that span. Adam Ottavino, Darwinzon Hernandez, and Hirokazu Sawamura are in play to take over for Barnes if he struggles. For now, consider Barnes on the very tail end of draftable relievers in fantasy.

May has been named the Dodgers' fifth starter by Dave Roberts, a surprising twist given the presence of David Price and Tony Gonsolin. Given the Dodgers' depth and their history, it's unlikely that he'll remain in the rotation from start to finish, but if you haven't drafted yet, move him significantly higher on your board.

Voit suffered a partial meniscus tear in his knee this spring and is going to be precluded from participating in baseball activity for at least three weeks after surgery. It's almost certainly going to take Voit at least a couple of weeks after returning to baseball activity to return to game action, meaning you should bank on him being out until May 15th or so. When healthy, he's going to produce, however. He has always had a ton of power but last year he left the yard at a ridiculous pace last year, with a 34.9% HR/FB rate, third best in the league. The thing is, nothing about his profile really changed all that much. Indeed, his hard hit rate, barrel percentage, and average exit velocity actually were career lows. The biggest difference was that Voit simply swung more than ever, 52.1% of the time, and correspondingly made more contact, at a 73.8% rate, and actually struck out less than ever before. If Voit keeps the same approach, there's every reason to expect him to put up massive power numbers when he's healthy. That's always been his bugaboo, of course, and since he is already dealing with a significant injury, you can't draft him as a starting first baseman in mixed leagues at this point.

Kelenic was assigned to the Mariners' Minor League camp on March 26th, which wasn't much of a surprise after he suffered a knee injury that cost him time this spring. He looked more than ready for the big club in his 23 plate appearances, however, hitting two home runs with a 1.256 OPS. Kelenic likely won't be down for too long (perhaps just long enough for the team to gain an extra year of control), so fantasy managers can still draft him late and wait a bit to reap the rewards.

German has won the fifth starter's job after a torrid spring, during which he didn't allow a run over nine innings pitched while walking one and striking out 13. German's off-the-field issues aside, he was a quality MLB pitcher in 2019, and he should be a decent contributor in four categories, especially considering his low walk rate. He's not risk-free, as a downturn in his performance could lead to Deivi Garcia coming back in the rotation. But he's a fine, late-round selection.

Anderson has a partial tear of his elbow ligament and, although he won't need surgery, he is likely out until after the All-Star Break. Although he can be dominant when healthy, there's no reason to draft and stash him at this point, given that he won't even be the sole closer for the Rays if and when he returns.

Jimenez is going to miss 5-6 months with a ruptured pectoral tendon, an absolutely brutal blow to a player who was being drafted as a borderline top-10 outfielder. You can draft him with your last pick and hope to be able to stash him on your IL all season long, but for the most part, you can ignore him in redraft formats.

What one hitter should fantasy owners look into picking up that is owned in less than 20% of Leagues?
Quick, which hitter ranks in the top 15 in hard contact rate, is on a 162-game pace of more than 30 home runs, and is eligible at three positions? Little-owned Max Muncy, that's who. Muncy wasn't a huge prospect and never showed a lot of pop in the minors, but he's hitting well and batting near the top of the Dodgers' lineup. He's making an incredible amount of hard contact and looks like he could be yet another example of a player who vastly outperforms his power numbers from the minors once he reaches the show.

What one starting pitcher should fantasy owners look into picking up that is owned in less than 20% of Leagues?
Carlos Rodon is a pitcher that fantasy owners should have had stashed on their DL spot for awhile, but judging by his 6% ownership, they haven't. Rodon has teased fantasy owners for years, but his potential to be a difference-maker is exactly why he should be picked up before he is activated, which should be soon. He is coming off a dominant rehab outing, with eight strikeouts over five innings, and has allowed just one run total in his three starts. At this point, no one needs another pitcher who will give you five innings and allow three runs with middling strikeout numbers. If you're looking for high upside on your bench, and you should be, look to add Rodon immediately.

What one player are you trying to buy low and what type of player would you give up to get him?
Ordinarily, I wouldn't think that Paul Goldschmidt owners would dare sell low on an elite player, but from what I can tell, his owners are panicking. Yes, Goldschmidt has been awful, and a 31.4% strikeout percentage combined with a .695 OPS is enough to raise some red flags. But no, humidor or no, a 30-year-old elite player does not simply fall off a cliff. Goldschmidt's awful season is really just an awful May (.900 OPS in April, .425 in May), and there's no way to draw any conclusions about a tough few-week stretch. I'd be looking to see if I could nab Goldschmidt for a Carlos Carrasco or Tommy Pham type of player, but would be willing to give a little more if necessary.

What one player are you trying to sell high right now and who would you want in return?
It has nothing to do with his talent, but I'd look to move James Paxton if I could get an elite player. Paxton has been outstanding this season, with the best strikeout rate of his career and a no-hitter under his belt. But Paxton's innings year-by-year are as follows: 95, 106 1/3, 169 2/3, 87, 73 2/3, 171 2/3, 140. As good as he is, the chances of him topping 170 innings seems minimal, and he's already at 62 2/3. I'd think of him as a top-10 starter and try to deal him for someone like George Springer or an underachieving slugger like Anthony Rizzo.

What one hitter should fantasy owners look into picking up that is owned in less than 20% of Leagues?
Daniel Descalso has somehow played his way into consideration in most fantasy leagues. A super-utility player, Descalso has shined with regular playing time in Jake Lamb's absence, slashing .261/.363/.514. and upping his pull percentage and his hard contact and fly-ball rates. Lamb should be back shortly but with A.J. Pollock's injury and Descalso's versatility, he should be able to stick in the lineup more often than not. With eligibility all over the diamond, he's an ideal bench pickup at least for fantasy owners.

What one starting pitcher should fantasy owners look into picking up that is owned in less than 20% of Leagues?
In Vince Velasquez's last three starts (one of which was against the Nationals), he's thrown 17 1/3 innings and allowed four runs and 18 base-runners, while striking out 21. Yes, his bouts with control can be maddening and yes, there will be bumps in the road. But he has a 27.1% strikeout rate, and both his FIP and xFIP suggests that his 4.37 ERA should be lower. When you're looking to fill your bench with pitchers, you need high upside, and Velasquez is oozing with potential. His ownership percentage is far too low.

Which player who is greatly outperforming his ADP will be able to sustain his performance and why?
Gerrit Cole was drafted as the 21st starting pitcher off the board and the 74th player overall, but he's my fourth-ranked starter for the rest of the season and I feel pretty confident in that ranking. Everything fantasy owners hoped for with his move to the Astros has happened: he's throwing his fastball much less (about 53% of the time, down from his usual 60-65%) and his breaking pitches much more. The result is a dramatic increase in swinging strike rate and an overall performance that is utterly supported by his underlying metrics. Do not be afraid to buy high here.

Which player is destined for negative regression despite his early season success and why?
Ozzie Albies is a wonderful player, but there's just no way he can sustain this pace. Yes, SunTrust Park is a hitter's haven and Francisco Lindor is an example of a player who has hit for much more power in the majors than the minors, but still, Albies isn't suddenly a 30-home run hitter overnight. He's not walking or stealing bases all that much, and when the power dries up a bit, as it likely will, Albies will simply be a good, but not great, asset. In the end, Albies will outperform his draft position, but I don't expect him to finish as a top second baseman.

What one player do you expect to positively regress after a slow start to the season?
I am entirely unconcerned with Willson Contreras' slow start. Although he's walking less, he's also striking out less, and he's reduced his abysmal 53.3% ground ball rate from last year to a passable 45.3% rate this year. Once the weather officially warms up in Chicago and the Cubs' offense picks up, Contreras will go back to putting up elite numbers for a catcher, and he should justify his draft position when all is said and done.

What one player are you trying to buy low and what type of player would you give up to get him?
I'm not 100% confident in buying low on Yu Darvish, but I'm still trying to do it wherever I can. There are plenty of warning signs for Darvish at this point - his strikeout rate is down and his walk rate is way up, even for him. But, he remains immensely talented and his O-Swing and O-Contact percentages suggest that he may still be tipping his pitches, which is a problem he had in the World Series and should be correctable. I'd look to try to sell high on young pitchers like Blake Snell or Sean Manaea who are off to great starts, but would be willing to give up solid hitters like Yoenis Cespedes or Justin Upton. The chance to buy low on a potential ace doesn't come around often, and it's worth the risk.

What one player are you trying to sell high right now and who would you want in return?
I'm not sure if you can truly sell high on Jed Lowrie right now, but if so, I'd take a decent return and run. He's off to an incredible start but there are plenty of warning signs, including an inflated .387 BABIP (.297 career) and a high 38.6% ground ball rate (32.7% career). Regression is surely coming, and his health concerns (he's topped 100 games just three times in his career) make him an ideal sell-high candidate. I'd swap him for a host of disappointing or injured second base-eligible players (Ian Kinsler, Rougned Odor, Chris Taylor) or any top-40 starter, without hesitation.

What one player are you trying to buy low and what type of player would you give up to get him?
I'm not necessarily trying to buy low on Edwin Encarnacion, but that's only because I own him everywhere. Trying to acquire Encarnacion right now, even at a reduced price, is not without risk. He's at an age (35) where he could easily fall off a cliff, and he's batting at an historically awful pace. But he looked absolutely done last April (.200/.343/.353) and the April before that (.250/.298/.396) and the April before that (.205/.258/.352), before rebounding to have his typical season. I'd look to flip him for an Eric Hosmer/Miguel Cabrera type, but would have no problem giving up someone like Marcell Ozuna, Lorenzo Cain, or Tommy Pham.

What one player are you trying to sell high right now and who would you want in return?
I'd look to move Ozzie Albies if I could right now, as he's the perfect combination of prospect pedigree plus over-performance for a sell-high candidate. Albies has a bright future, but his five home runs and nearly 1.000 OPS may have some believing he's something he isn't. He's walking just 2.5% of the time and has a 19.2% HR/FB rate. Albies should be valuable, but there are obviously many owners who are starting to buy into him as a true fantasy stud. I'd gladly flip him for other similarly-ranked second basemen (Dee Gordon, Robinson Cano) or under-performing or injured players like Wil Myers, Miguel Sano, or Anthony Rendon.

What one hitter should fantasy owners look into picking up that is owned in less than 25% of Leagues?
Amed Rosario is the perfect blend of potential plus opportunity. An elite prospect, Rosario had a disastrous debut in the majors last season, which led to him being largely forgotten in fantasy circles during draft time. But he's off to an excellent start so far this season, batting .333 with an .842 OPS so far. Rosario is batting ninth, which will limit his plate appearances, but should also allow him to utilize his speed and tack on 20 or 25 steals over the course of the season. At a thin position, Rosario could easily be an impact player, and should at least be more widely owned as a middle infield option.

What one starting pitcher should fantasy owners look into picking up that is owned in less than 25% of Leagues?
Jack Flaherty barely makes the cut at 24% ownership, but that number needs to be doubled or tripled immediately. His debut against the Brewers was electric, with nine strikeouts in just five innings. Yes, he's been relegated to the minors for now, but if you watched Adam Wainwright pitch on Thursday, you know Flaherty won't be there for long. Pitchers who are widely available who can even sniff "fantasy ace" potential are few and far between, but Flaherty is one of them. Make some room on your bench, add him immediately before he gets called back up, and avoid the rush.

Please name one hitter ranked outside the top 50 in the expert consensus that owners will regret the most not drafting.
Travis Shaw had a breakout season in 2017 and, in light of his move to Miller Park and the changes in his approach, fantasy owners should be buying in. Shaw clearly focused on being more patient and making more contact last year, and unlike many of his fellow players, actually reduced his fly ball rate, which led to his increase in batting average. But what really stands out and makes Shaw someone to target are his home road splits: .255/.327/.452 at home and .291/.370/.571 on the road. Shaw's infant daughter had health problems last year, and he talked about how much that distracted him when he was in Milwaukee, and which likely caused his poor numbers despite playing in the hitter-friendly Miller Park. With improvement at home this year probable, Shaw could be a monster for fantasy purposes.

Please name one starting pitcher ranked outside the top 25 in the expert consensus that owners will regret the most not drafting.
I really don't understand why the fantasy community leapt off the Johnny Cueto bandwagon so quickly after one injury-plagued year. Cueto, like several pitchers last year, battled blisters, which led to decreased movement in his pitches and a lack of command. Rather than attribute his decline to the blisters, everyone seems to be viewing him as someone who hit a wall and suddenly completely lost the strike zone (8.2% walk rate vs. 6.9% career). I'm just not buying that as the case, as his strikeout rate remained relatively consistent and there was little before last year to suggest a decline was imminent. With an improved team behind him, I'm willing to give Cueto a pass (for the most part) last year, and I am trying to scoop him up everywhere I can.