Alvin Kamara Week 11 Outlook - Falcons at Saints

By Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros), Thu, Nov 19th 2020, 8:20am EST

And the beat goes on... We're now headed into Week 11 and Kamara has yet to finish worse than the RB13 in half-PPR formats. He's played the Bucs twice, Bears, and 49ers. The guy is just playing on a different level right now. Everyone sees the Falcons on the schedule and thinks, "Jackpot!" though that's not really the case. Of the fantasy points the Falcons have allowed to skill-position players, just 24.9 percent of them have gone to running backs, which is the lowest percentage in the league. Did you know that teams of running backs typically outscore the quarterback in fantasy points per game? Well, if you didn't, you do now. Running backs typically average 5.0 more PPR points per game than quarterbacks, but against the Falcons, quarterbacks average 5.2 more PPR points per game than the running backs. Teams have seemingly realized it's more profitable to move the ball through the air against them, as the Falcons have faced a league-low 17.7 carries per game. They're also one of three teams who've allowed less than four rushing touchdowns. Because of that, they've allowed the fewest fantasy points on the ground to running backs. Read that again because you may have missed it. The Falcons have allowed the fewest fantasy points on the ground to running backs at just 8.4 points per game. Fortunately, for Kamara, they've allowed tons of production through the air. The 12.7 PPR points per game they've allowed to running backs through the air alone ranks as the fifth most in the league. All in all, the Falcons have allowed just 23.6 touches per game to running backs (second-fewest) and have held them to the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game. We know by now that you don't ever consider fading Kamara, no matter the matchup. Start him as an elite RB1 every week. Murray, on the other hand, he's someone whose skill-set does not match up in this game at all, making him a weak touchdown-dependent RB4.