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Fantasy Football Player Notes

2022 Draft Rankings

DK Metcalf Note
DK Metcalf photo 34. DK Metcalf WR - (vs . LAR)
The difference between having Geno Smith/Drew Lock at quarterback versus Russell Wilson cannot be overstated enough. It's a horrible situation to be in and puts D.K. Metcalf in a tough spot.

Although the alpha wideout did rise to occasion under a small sample size last season, averaging 14.9 fantasy points per game (15th - same as his final season-long standing) without Wilson at quarterback for three games.

But I am suspect that removing their quarterback that led the NFL in yards per attempt (10.4), passer rating (133.6) and passer rating from a clean pocket (130.9) before his finger injury is going to create a much larger impact over a 17-game sample size.
2 weeks ago
Tyler Lockett Note
Tyler Lockett photo 75. Tyler Lockett WR - (vs . LAR)
I can't cultivate a likely scenario where the Seattle Seahawks wide receiver accrues any type of worthwhile fantasy value in 2021.

He is turning 30 years old this season and finds him in a situation with Geno Smith/Drew Lock at quarterback. Lockett's infamous for his roller coaster production - four top-5 finishes, seven outside the top-36 in 2021 - and I expect no less based on his current situation in 2022. The major difference being the bad games will be more frequent than ever with the massive QB downgrade.

Lockett averaged just 9.0 fantasy points per game (47th) without Wilson last season.

With Lockett competing for targets alongside Metcalf in a run-heavy offense, he looks like a straight-up fade unless his ADP falls dramatically.
1 week ago
Ken Walker III Note
Ken Walker III photo 79. Ken Walker III RB - (vs . LAR)
Kenneth Walker III made a massive splash upon transferring to Michigan State in 2021, leading his class in rushing yards (1,634), missed forced tackles (89) and explosive runs (46) en route to winning the Doak Walker Award -  an honor bestowed upon college football's best running back.

His success earned him a 34% dominator rating, which considers the number of touchdowns and receiving yards a player commands within their offense.

The number is solid considering Walker commanded just a 4% target share in his junior year, catching 13 passes for 80 receiving yards. 

His massive accomplishments this past season were inevitable after he rushed for 13 touchdowns as PFF's 15th-best graded running back in 2020 as a sophomore at Wake. 

With the second-most missed tackles forced over the past two seasons - trailing only Iowa State's Breece Hall - and third-most rushing yards after contact, Walker possesses the groundwork to be an effective rusher at the next level. Breaking tackles and creating after contact in college translates to the pros extremely well, as seen most recently by Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams.

Williams led the nation in missed tackle rate (48%) in his final season at North Carolina and would go on to lead the NFL in the same metric at the conclusion of his stellar rookie season. 

Elusiveness is just one trait Walker has in common with Williams, as both skipped their senior years to enter the draft. Declaring early is a positive sign for a running back in dynasty formats, as they save themselves from another year of wear and tear. 

The lack of work in the passing game is really the only major blemish on Walker's prospect profile because his testing at the NFL scouting combine was also exceptional. He weighed in at 211 pounds and ran a 4.38 40-yard dash (96th percentile).

"The player I am avoiding is running back Kenneth Walker III. With a rookie draft ADP in the top-3, it's just too steep a price to pay for a running back that is projected to be used heavily on early downs on an offense that easily projects to be bottom-5 in the NFL led by the unsurprising duo of Drew Lock/Geno Smith at quarterback.

Even if Walker can carve out a first-year workload similar to that of Chris Carson circa 2020 - 16.4 touches per game, 56% snaps share when healthy - it's still going to be a massive uphill battle for him to be a fantasy producer in Year 1.

Pete Carroll has a stable of backs including Rashaad Penny, Travis Homer and DeeJay Dallas who all figure to work in at some point despite Walker's Round 2 draft capital.
Again, even when Carson was the RB1, he was splitting snaps.

Penny was brought back on a one-year deal for $5 million (12tth-highest cap hit), Chris Carson - if healthy - is due $6.1 million (10th-highest cap hit) and Homer/Dallas have routinely worked as pass-catchers out of the backfield.

Seattle also finished dead-last in targets to the RB position last season, creating serious doubt that Walker will be used in that fashion in any capacity as a rookie. Part of that is on Russell Wilson's lack of juice in the screen game, but the offense itself doesn't predicate much RB pass-game usage. Geno Smith posted a meager 12% RB target rate (three per game) in his three starts last season. Drew Lock was at 17%.

The Seahawks have the chance to be a running back by committee and dumpster fire on offense this season for all the reasons I've laid out, which is why I am adamantly against paying the premium for Walker. If this team falls behind in games, there's no telling which RB will even be on the field.

I feel so much better about going with one of the many rookie WRs selected in Round 1 ahead of Walker based on his landing spot.

Hopefully, opportunities should open in this backfield in Year 2 for Walker with Penny likely leaving in free agency. But does he get replaced with another Day 2 running back? Will Seattle's offense even be efficient in 2023 and beyond? So much uncertainty with this entire situation has me hesitant.
3 weeks ago
Rashaad Penny Note
Rashaad Penny photo 88. Rashaad Penny RB - (vs . LAR)
Noah Fant Note
Noah Fant photo 132. Noah Fant TE - (vs . LAR)
There was hope that a QB upgrade in Denver could take Fant to the next level. Unfortunately, Fant was part of the trade package that enabled the Broncos to acquire Russell Wilson. Fant is athletic and has demonstrated his pass-catching chops, but Seattle's bleak QB situation is going to be a limiting factor.
9 weeks ago
Chris Carson Note
Chris Carson photo 176. Chris Carson RB - (vs . LAR)
Jason Myers Note
Jason Myers photo 279. Jason Myers K - (vs . LAR)
Seattle Seahawks Note
Seattle Seahawks photo 296. Seattle Seahawks DST - (vs . LAR)
Drew Lock Note
Drew Lock photo 305. Drew Lock QB - (vs . LAR)
Three seasons' worth of auditions have gone poorly, but it appears he'll get another in Seattle after being included in part of the package that sent Russell Wilson to Denver. We've seen too few encouraging signs to believe that Lock can still turn into a useful fantasy asset.
3 weeks ago
Geno Smith Note
Geno Smith photo 382. Geno Smith QB - (vs . LAR)
Played decently in three 2021 starts in place of the injured Russell Wilson, and now he might have a chance to start over Drew Lock ... unless Seattle brings in another QB.
3 weeks ago
Dee Eskridge Note
Dee Eskridge photo 383. Dee Eskridge WR - (vs . LAR)
DeeJay Dallas Note
DeeJay Dallas photo 419. DeeJay Dallas RB - (vs . LAR)
Freddie Swain Note
Freddie Swain photo 434. Freddie Swain WR - (vs . LAR)
Will Dissly Note
Will Dissly photo 442. Will Dissly TE - (vs . LAR)
Bo Melton Note
Bo Melton photo 473. Bo Melton WR - (vs . LAR)