Touchdown Regression Report
2025 Season - Tight Ends - Weeks 1 to 17
What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.
Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.
| Actual | Adjusted | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player (Team) | GAMES | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | RANK | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | ADJ. RANK | RANK DIFF |
| Trey McBride (ARI) | 16 | 6.51% | 0.00% | 183.4 | 1 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 166.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert (PHI) | 15 | 13.41% | 0.00% | 125.1 | 2 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 84.0 | 11 | -9 |
| Kyle Pitts Sr. (ATL) | 16 | 4.24% | 0.00% | 117.0 | 3 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 120.1 | 2 | +1 |
| Travis Kelce (KC) | 16 | 4.63% | 0.00% | 116.0 | 4 | 5.06% | 6.62% | 117.3 | 3 | +1 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. (CLE) | 16 | 5.56% | 14.29% | 114.4 | 5 | 5.06% | 6.62% | 107.6 | 6 | -1 |
| Hunter Henry (NE) | 16 | 8.05% | 0.00% | 113.2 | 6 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 96.1 | 9 | -3 |
| Brock Bowers (LV) | 12 | 8.14% | 0.00% | 112.2 | 7 | 5.06% | 6.62% | 97.1 | 8 | -1 |
| Tyler Warren (IND) | 16 | 3.57% | 16.67% | 109.9 | 8 | 5.06% | 6.62% | 113.8 | 4 | +4 |
| Jake Ferguson (DAL) | 16 | 7.84% | 0.00% | 105.6 | 9 | 5.06% | 6.62% | 88.3 | 10 | -1 |
| George Kittle (SF) | 10 | 10.14% | 0.00% | 101.6 | 10 | 5.06% | 6.62% | 78.8 | 14 | -4 |
| Juwan Johnson (NO) | 16 | 2.94% | 0.00% | 98.8 | 11 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 110.2 | 5 | +6 |
| AJ Barner (SEA) | 16 | 8.82% | 10.00% | 93.9 | 12 | 5.06% | 6.62% | 75.6 | 16 | -4 |
| Colston Loveland (CHI) | 15 | 7.32% | 0.00% | 92.0 | 13 | 5.06% | 6.62% | 83.3 | 12 | +1 |
| Dalton Schultz (HOU) | 16 | 2.83% | 0.00% | 88.4 | 14 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 101.3 | 7 | +7 |
| Tucker Kraft (GB) | 8 | 13.64% | 0.00% | 85.2 | 15 | 5.06% | 6.62% | 62.9 | 26 | -11 |
| Theo Johnson (NYG) | 15 | 6.76% | 0.00% | 82.8 | 16 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 75.2 | 17 | -1 |
| Dalton Kincaid (BUF) | 11 | 10.20% | 0.00% | 82.3 | 17 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 66.3 | 21 | -4 |
| Mark Andrews (BAL) | 16 | 7.14% | 10.00% | 81.6 | 18 | 5.06% | 6.62% | 69.9 | 19 | -1 |
| Oronde Gadsden II (LAC) | 14 | 4.35% | 0.00% | 80.1 | 19 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 82.4 | 13 | +6 |
| Zach Ertz (WAS) | 13 | 5.56% | 0.00% | 76.4 | 20 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 74.2 | 18 | +2 |
| Colby Parkinson (LAR) | 14 | 14.29% | 0.00% | 71.2 | 21 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 50.1 | 31 | -10 |
| Chig Okonkwo (TEN) | 16 | 2.53% | 0.00% | 67.8 | 22 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 78.2 | 15 | +7 |
| Pat Freiermuth (PIT) | 16 | 7.41% | 0.00% | 67.5 | 23 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 58.4 | 28 | -5 |
| Sam LaPorta (DET) | 9 | 6.12% | 0.00% | 66.9 | 24 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 63.8 | 25 | -1 |
| Darren Waller (MIA) | 9 | 17.65% | 0.00% | 64.7 | 25 | 5.06% | 6.62% | 39.4 | 40 | -15 |
| T.J. Hockenson (MIN) | 15 | 4.55% | 0.00% | 61.8 | 26 | 5.06% | 6.62% | 64.2 | 24 | +2 |
| Brenton Strange (JAC) | 11 | 5.00% | 0.00% | 60.8 | 27 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 65.2 | 22 | +5 |
| Dawson Knox (BUF) | 16 | 8.16% | 0.00% | 59.3 | 28 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 55.6 | 29 | -1 |
| Jake Tonges (SF) | 16 | 10.87% | 0.00% | 59.3 | 29 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 43.3 | 37 | -8 |
| David Njoku (CLE) | 12 | 8.33% | 0.00% | 53.3 | 30 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 43.9 | 36 | -6 |
| Evan Engram (DEN) | 15 | 1.32% | 0.00% | 48.3 | 31 | 5.06% | 6.62% | 64.5 | 23 | +8 |
| Cade Otton (TB) | 15 | 1.23% | 0.00% | 47.8 | 32 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 69.6 | 20 | +12 |
| Gunnar Helm (TEN) | 16 | 3.64% | 0.00% | 47.7 | 33 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 52.4 | 30 | +3 |
| Jonnu Smith (PIT) | 16 | 3.70% | 11.11% | 46.8 | 34 | 5.06% | 6.62% | 47.8 | 33 | +1 |
| Cole Kmet (CHI) | 15 | 4.17% | 0.00% | 45.1 | 35 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 46.7 | 34 | +1 |
| Mason Taylor (NYJ) | 13 | 1.54% | 0.00% | 44.9 | 36 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 58.6 | 27 | +9 |
| Darnell Washington (PIT) | 16 | 2.33% | 0.00% | 42.4 | 37 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 49.4 | 32 | +5 |
| Noah Fant (CIN) | 14 | 7.32% | 0.00% | 42.3 | 38 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 36.4 | 42 | -4 |
| Mike Gesicki (CIN) | 12 | 4.76% | 0.00% | 41.4 | 39 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 41.5 | 39 | 0 |
| Davis Allen (LAR) | 16 | 9.09% | 0.00% | 38.8 | 40 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 30.5 | 50 | -10 |
| Austin Hooper (NE) | 15 | 7.69% | 0.00% | 37.8 | 41 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 33.4 | 46 | -5 |
| Michael Mayer (LV) | 12 | 2.00% | 0.00% | 34.1 | 42 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 41.7 | 38 | +4 |
| Greg Dulcich (MIA) | 9 | 3.03% | 0.00% | 33.7 | 43 | 5.06% | 6.62% | 36.9 | 41 | +2 |
| Isaiah Likely (BAL) | 13 | 2.70% | 0.00% | 31.5 | 44 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 35.8 | 43 | +1 |
| Tyler Higbee (LAR) | 9 | 8.33% | 0.00% | 31.0 | 45 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 28.1 | 52 | -7 |
| Daniel Bellinger (NYG) | 15 | 7.69% | 0.00% | 30.8 | 46 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 32.1 | 47 | -1 |
| Tommy Tremble (CAR) | 16 | 5.41% | 0.00% | 27.1 | 47 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 31.1 | 48 | -1 |
| Elijah Higgins (ARI) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 25.3 | 48 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 35.6 | 44 | +4 |
| Luke Musgrave (GB) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 25.2 | 49 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 34.6 | 45 | +4 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders (CAR) | 13 | 2.94% | 0.00% | 25.0 | 50 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 29.3 | 51 | -1 |
| Jeremy Ruckert (NYJ) | 16 | 3.45% | 0.00% | 23.9 | 51 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 26.7 | 53 | -2 |
| Elijah Arroyo (SEA) | 13 | 3.85% | 0.00% | 21.9 | 52 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 23.8 | 59 | -7 |
| Noah Gray (KC) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 14.8 | 53 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 24.5 | 55 | -2 |
