Touchdown Regression Report
2025 Season - Wide Receivers - Weeks 1 to 17
What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.
Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.
| Actual | Adjusted | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player (Team) | GAMES | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | RANK | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | ADJ. RANK | RANK DIFF |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) | 16 | 6.13% | 0.00% | 232.5 | 1 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 219.9 | 1 | 0 |
| Puka Nacua (LAR) | 15 | 6.02% | 10.00% | 230.0 | 2 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 217.7 | 2 | 0 |
| George Pickens (DAL) | 16 | 6.57% | 0.00% | 198.0 | 3 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 183.6 | 3 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) | 16 | 6.40% | 0.00% | 193.1 | 4 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 174.2 | 5 | -1 |
| Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) | 15 | 4.32% | 0.00% | 173.0 | 5 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 183.4 | 4 | +1 |
| Chris Olave (NO) | 16 | 5.77% | 0.00% | 169.0 | 6 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 161.3 | 6 | 0 |
| Davante Adams (LAR) | 14 | 12.28% | 0.00% | 162.9 | 7 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 112.6 | 25 | -18 |
| Nico Collins (HOU) | 15 | 4.96% | 50.00% | 155.2 | 8 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 149.1 | 7 | +1 |
| Jameson Williams (DET) | 16 | 6.86% | 0.00% | 147.5 | 9 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 134.7 | 13 | -4 |
| Courtland Sutton (DEN) | 16 | 5.65% | 0.00% | 145.2 | 10 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 139.2 | 11 | -1 |
| A.J. Brown (PHI) | 15 | 5.79% | 0.00% | 142.3 | 11 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 136.1 | 12 | -1 |
| Tee Higgins (CIN) | 14 | 11.22% | 0.00% | 139.9 | 12 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 106.2 | 33 | -21 |
| Tetairoa McMillan (CAR) | 16 | 5.74% | 0.00% | 134.9 | 13 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 127.2 | 17 | -4 |
| Emeka Egbuka (TB) | 16 | 4.72% | 0.00% | 131.9 | 14 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 133.0 | 15 | -1 |
| Zay Flowers (BAL) | 16 | 4.24% | 10.00% | 131.5 | 15 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 143.0 | 9 | +6 |
| Jaylen Waddle (MIA) | 16 | 6.00% | 0.00% | 130.1 | 16 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 124.1 | 20 | -4 |
| DK Metcalf (PIT) | 15 | 6.06% | 50.00% | 128.2 | 17 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 115.9 | 21 | -4 |
| Michael Wilson (ARI) | 16 | 5.56% | 0.00% | 126.7 | 18 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 125.6 | 19 | -1 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson (NYG) | 16 | 2.84% | 0.00% | 125.9 | 19 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 144.0 | 8 | +11 |
| CeeDee Lamb (DAL) | 13 | 2.56% | 0.00% | 125.5 | 20 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 142.0 | 10 | +10 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) | 16 | 6.31% | 0.00% | 121.3 | 21 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 110.9 | 26 | -5 |
| Stefon Diggs (NE) | 16 | 3.92% | 0.00% | 121.0 | 22 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 126.3 | 18 | +4 |
| Quentin Johnston (LAC) | 14 | 9.41% | 0.00% | 120.2 | 23 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 97.8 | 38 | -15 |
| Drake London (ATL) | 11 | 6.25% | 0.00% | 120.1 | 24 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 114.8 | 23 | +1 |
| DeVonta Smith (PHI) | 16 | 3.54% | 0.00% | 119.6 | 25 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 127.8 | 16 | +9 |
| DJ Moore (CHI) | 16 | 7.06% | 6.67% | 119.1 | 26 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 104.9 | 34 | -8 |
| Ladd McConkey (LAC) | 16 | 5.61% | 0.00% | 114.9 | 27 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 110.2 | 28 | -1 |
| Jauan Jennings (SF) | 14 | 10.00% | 0.00% | 114.8 | 28 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 85.6 | 44 | -16 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 15 | 5.05% | 5.88% | 114.1 | 29 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 109.4 | 30 | -1 |
| Troy Franklin (DEN) | 16 | 5.77% | 0.00% | 112.1 | 30 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 107.7 | 31 | -1 |
| Parker Washington (JAC) | 15 | 5.21% | 0.00% | 112.0 | 31 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 115.1 | 22 | +9 |
| Alec Pierce (IND) | 14 | 7.14% | 0.00% | 111.1 | 32 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 109.9 | 29 | +3 |
| Romeo Doubs (GB) | 16 | 7.06% | 0.00% | 110.4 | 33 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 99.5 | 35 | -2 |
| Justin Jefferson (MIN) | 16 | 1.42% | 0.00% | 107.1 | 34 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 133.7 | 14 | +20 |
| Rome Odunze (CHI) | 12 | 6.67% | 0.00% | 102.1 | 35 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 92.7 | 40 | -5 |
| Tre Tucker (LV) | 16 | 5.43% | 0.00% | 101.3 | 36 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 99.1 | 36 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen (LAC) | 16 | 3.28% | 0.00% | 98.1 | 37 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 106.3 | 32 | +5 |
| Christian Watson (GB) | 10 | 10.91% | 0.00% | 97.4 | 38 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 77.9 | 48 | -10 |
| Rashid Shaheed (SEA) | 17 | 2.17% | 0.00% | 97.4 | 39 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 114.4 | 24 | +15 |
| Rashee Rice (KC) | 8 | 6.41% | 20.00% | 97.1 | 40 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 85.3 | 45 | -5 |
| Jakobi Meyers (JAC) | 15 | 2.73% | 0.00% | 96.4 | 41 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 110.3 | 27 | +14 |
| Khalil Shakir (BUF) | 16 | 4.17% | 0.00% | 94.4 | 42 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 98.7 | 37 | +5 |
| Jordan Addison (MIN) | 13 | 3.80% | 50.00% | 92.3 | 43 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 91.2 | 41 | +2 |
| Kayshon Boutte (NE) | 13 | 13.04% | 0.00% | 88.7 | 44 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 65.1 | 61 | -17 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) | 12 | 5.48% | 0.00% | 86.8 | 45 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 84.4 | 46 | -1 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. (JAC) | 13 | 2.20% | 33.33% | 85.9 | 46 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 94.0 | 39 | +7 |
| Marquise Brown (KC) | 15 | 6.67% | 0.00% | 82.3 | 47 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 72.4 | 53 | -6 |
| Jayden Higgins (HOU) | 16 | 8.82% | 0.00% | 80.2 | 48 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 68.8 | 57 | -9 |
| Luther Burden III (CHI) | 14 | 3.33% | 0.00% | 76.4 | 49 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 82.1 | 47 | +2 |
| Chimere Dike (TEN) | 16 | 5.41% | 0.00% | 75.4 | 50 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 74.7 | 51 | -1 |
| Josh Downs (IND) | 15 | 4.49% | 0.00% | 72.8 | 51 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 73.9 | 52 | -1 |
| Elic Ayomanor (TEN) | 15 | 4.44% | 0.00% | 70.5 | 52 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 69.8 | 55 | -3 |
| Terry McLaurin (WAS) | 9 | 5.00% | 0.00% | 70.5 | 53 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 69.0 | 56 | -3 |
| Jerry Jeudy (CLE) | 16 | 1.89% | 0.00% | 68.5 | 54 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 86.0 | 43 | +11 |
| Xavier Worthy (KC) | 14 | 1.37% | 0.00% | 67.9 | 55 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 86.1 | 42 | +13 |
| Cooper Kupp (SEA) | 15 | 2.86% | 0.00% | 67.4 | 56 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 75.2 | 49 | +7 |
| Mack Hollins (NE) | 15 | 3.08% | 0.00% | 67.4 | 57 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 74.8 | 50 | +7 |
| Ryan Flournoy (DAL) | 14 | 7.02% | 0.00% | 67.2 | 58 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 58.6 | 67 | -9 |
| Jalen Nailor (MIN) | 16 | 7.55% | 0.00% | 66.8 | 59 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 58.0 | 69 | -10 |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ) | 7 | 6.78% | 0.00% | 63.5 | 60 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 56.9 | 70 | -10 |
| Tez Johnson (TB) | 15 | 11.36% | 0.00% | 62.4 | 61 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 46.8 | 85 | -24 |
| Malik Washington (MIA) | 16 | 4.62% | 5.88% | 61.9 | 62 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 65.5 | 60 | +2 |
| DeMario Douglas (NE) | 16 | 6.52% | 0.00% | 61.9 | 63 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 58.3 | 68 | -5 |
| Tyquan Thornton (KC) | 14 | 8.11% | 0.00% | 61.8 | 64 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 54.7 | 71 | -7 |
| Isaac TeSlaa (DET) | 16 | 22.22% | 0.00% | 58.1 | 65 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 29.8 | 115 | -50 |
| KaVontae Turpin (DAL) | 14 | 5.26% | 0.00% | 57.8 | 66 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 60.5 | 65 | +1 |
| Keon Coleman (BUF) | 12 | 6.78% | 0.00% | 57.5 | 67 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 49.8 | 80 | -13 |
| Darius Slayton (NYG) | 13 | 1.59% | 0.00% | 56.4 | 68 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 66.4 | 59 | +9 |
| Andrei Iosivas (CIN) | 16 | 3.39% | 0.00% | 55.9 | 69 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 60.9 | 64 | +5 |
| Kendrick Bourne (SF) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 55.1 | 70 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 70.5 | 54 | +16 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. (DEN) | 15 | 1.96% | 8.33% | 55.0 | 71 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 60.0 | 66 | +5 |
| Adonai Mitchell (NYJ) | 15 | 2.70% | 0.00% | 54.9 | 72 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 64.1 | 62 | +10 |
| Xavier Hutchinson (HOU) | 16 | 5.26% | 0.00% | 54.6 | 73 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 51.5 | 77 | -4 |
| Ricky Pearsall (SF) | 10 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 52.6 | 74 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 68.7 | 58 | +16 |
| Xavier Legette (CAR) | 14 | 4.69% | 0.00% | 52.1 | 75 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 52.1 | 75 | 0 |
| Mike Evans (TB) | 7 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 51.4 | 76 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 50.8 | 78 | -2 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. (TB) | 8 | 3.92% | 0.00% | 49.2 | 77 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 52.0 | 76 | +1 |
| Darnell Mooney (ATL) | 14 | 1.39% | 0.00% | 48.3 | 78 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 61.5 | 63 | +15 |
| Jalen Coker (CAR) | 10 | 6.98% | 0.00% | 46.7 | 79 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 45.3 | 88 | -9 |
| Greg Dortch (ARI) | 12 | 9.09% | 14.29% | 46.1 | 80 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 33.5 | 109 | -29 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus (CHI) | 15 | 3.08% | 0.00% | 45.8 | 81 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 53.9 | 73 | +8 |
| Dontayvion Wicks (GB) | 14 | 4.26% | 0.00% | 45.8 | 82 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 47.6 | 84 | -2 |
| DeAndre Hopkins (BAL) | 16 | 5.13% | 0.00% | 45.0 | 83 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 43.9 | 89 | -6 |
| Calvin Austin III (PIT) | 13 | 5.45% | 0.00% | 43.7 | 84 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 45.9 | 87 | -3 |
| Sterling Shepard (TB) | 13 | 1.89% | 0.00% | 43.0 | 85 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 53.6 | 74 | +11 |
| Devaughn Vele (NO) | 13 | 5.13% | 0.00% | 41.3 | 86 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 40.8 | 94 | -8 |
| Jaylin Noel (HOU) | 16 | 5.71% | 0.00% | 41.1 | 87 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 40.6 | 95 | -8 |
| Van Jefferson (TEN) | 16 | 1.92% | 0.00% | 41.0 | 88 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 50.4 | 79 | +9 |
| Pat Bryant (DEN) | 14 | 2.04% | 0.00% | 40.7 | 89 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 47.7 | 83 | +6 |
| Tyler Lockett (LV) | 16 | 1.82% | 0.00% | 40.6 | 90 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 49.4 | 81 | +9 |
| Matthew Golden (GB) | 13 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 40.2 | 91 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 54.7 | 72 | +19 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC) | 16 | 2.22% | 0.00% | 39.2 | 92 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 45.9 | 86 | +6 |
| Malik Nabers (NYG) | 4 | 5.41% | 0.00% | 39.1 | 93 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 37.4 | 102 | -9 |
| Kalif Raymond (DET) | 14 | 3.33% | 0.00% | 37.6 | 94 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 40.0 | 97 | -3 |
| John Metchie III (NYJ) | 15 | 4.17% | 0.00% | 36.9 | 95 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 38.6 | 100 | -5 |
| Cedric Tillman (CLE) | 12 | 5.13% | 0.00% | 36.7 | 96 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 35.6 | 105 | -9 |
| Tre Harris (LAC) | 16 | 2.33% | 0.00% | 36.6 | 97 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 42.0 | 92 | +5 |
| Rashod Bateman (BAL) | 13 | 5.13% | 0.00% | 36.4 | 98 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 35.6 | 106 | -8 |
| Travis Hunter (JAC) | 7 | 2.22% | 0.00% | 35.8 | 99 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 43.3 | 90 | +9 |
| Isaiah Bond (CLE) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 35.0 | 100 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 48.4 | 82 | +18 |
| Demarcus Robinson (SF) | 13 | 2.86% | 0.00% | 33.8 | 101 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 37.2 | 103 | -2 |
| Jaylin Lane (WAS) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 33.2 | 102 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 42.9 | 91 | +11 |
| Tyreek Hill | 4 | 3.45% | 0.00% | 32.5 | 103 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 35.1 | 107 | -4 |
| Isaiah Williams (NYJ) | 14 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 30.3 | 104 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 39.6 | 98 | +6 |
| Calvin Ridley (TEN) | 7 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 30.3 | 105 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 40.9 | 93 | +12 |
| Christian Kirk (HOU) | 12 | 1.92% | 0.00% | 30.2 | 106 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 39.0 | 99 | +7 |
| Joshua Palmer (BUF) | 11 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 30.2 | 107 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 40.2 | 96 | +11 |
| David Sills V (ATL) | 16 | 5.56% | 0.00% | 30.0 | 108 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 28.3 | 118 | -10 |
| Dyami Brown (JAC) | 14 | 2.70% | 0.00% | 28.9 | 109 | 4.92% | 3.93% | 35.0 | 108 | +1 |
| Jalen Tolbert (DAL) | 12 | 2.94% | 0.00% | 28.3 | 110 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 32.1 | 110 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson (PHI) | 16 | 2.78% | 0.00% | 28.2 | 111 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 30.5 | 113 | -2 |
| Brandin Cooks (BUF) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 27.9 | 112 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 38.5 | 101 | +11 |
| Jack Bech (LV) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 22.4 | 113 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 30.4 | 114 | -1 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 6 | 7.69% | 0.00% | 20.9 | 114 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 16.6 | 140 | -26 |
| Adam Thielen | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 16.3 | 115 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 24.9 | 124 | -9 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling (PIT) | 9 | 3.45% | 0.00% | 14.6 | 116 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 15.1 | 145 | -29 |
| Dont'e Thornton Jr. (LV) | 14 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 13.5 | 117 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 22.1 | 129 | -12 |
