What fantasy impact will Jameis Winston have this season?
On Thursday, April 30, Jameis Winston officially began his NFL career after being selected first-overall by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It was a foregone conclusion that Winston would be Tampa Bay-bound long before the draft. Needless to say, some in the Bucs’ organization had some reservations about taking him considering the slew of off-field problems. However, Florida State’s pro-style offense makes him more NFL-ready than Marcus Mariota, and the team didn’t want another year of Mike Glennon. Now that the Buccaneers have found their franchise quarterback, it will be interesting to find out whether Glennon will get traded or not.
Winston’s high football IQ enables him to understand blitz schemes and adjust offensive line protection accordingly pre-snap, while giving him the ability to identify coverage mismatches post-snap. Winston’s penchant for changing his protection will be crucial behind Tampa Bay’s Swiss cheese offensive line. Another skill of his that comes in handy behind a shaky line is pocket mobility, and his rocket arm can hit huge, speedy, big-play targets Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson downfield. Winston’s big body will help him occasionally shake off defenders, too. He has all the physical tools to succeed in the NFL, and he’s shown that he can win on the big stage with a NCAA National Championship under his belt.
As far as Winston’s receivers are concerned, I’d say Jackson will actually improve this year because Winston should be a step up from Josh McCown and Glennon. The fact that Winston used his tight end frequently in college bodes well for sleeper Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Heck, Louis Murphy can possibly find value as a WR5 with Winston at the helm, making Murphy a sneaky end-of-the-roster option in deep leagues. In short, Evans should enter the season as a top-20 wideout, with Jackson being a WR3. Also, “ASJ” can be drafted as someone with high-end TE2 upside.
In conclusion, I’d be comfortable viewing Winston as a low-risk, high-upside QB2, making him a decent late-round flier, especially in deep leagues. If Winston figures it out as a rookie, then you’ll have one of the steals of the draft. If he doesn’t, then you can drop him without feeling guilty since he’d only cost you a late-round pick. In a league of 14+ teams, I would certainly be willing to grab Winston late, but I would likely hold-off in leagues with 10 or fewer teams. If the run game picks up in Tampa Bay, then the Bucs’ offense could be much more dangerous than people anticipate in 2015.
Jonathan Ebanks is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Jonathan, check out his archive and follow him @hogz4lyfe.
