For being the home run leader, Trumbo’s price is far too low
We have 11 games to work with on the main slate and there are a few games with weather concerns, so be sure to pay attention to the forecast as the day unfolds. Let’s take a look at a lineup for FanDuel.
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Pitcher
Dallas Keuchel (HOU): $8,600 vs. NYY
Keuchel is reasonably priced and he draws a friendly matchup against the Yankees, who rank 27th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching. New York has an implied run total of 3.41 runs as a result, which bodes well in regards to run prevention for the ground ball specialist. Keuchel has gotten things settled down lately, as evidenced by him recording six consecutive quality starts. Lock in the savings to target some expensive hitters tonight.
Other Notables
- Jake Arrieta (CHC): $10,600 @ CWS
- Noah Syndergaard (NYM): $10,100 vs. STL
- Michael Pineda (NYY): $8,100 @ HOU (GPP)
Catcher
Welington Castillo (ARI): $2,800 @ MIL
Castillo draws a juicy matchup against Chase Anderson, who has exhibited some extreme reverse splits in the past. Since 2014, Anderson has allowed a whopping .364 wOBA and 1.52 HR/9 to same-handed hitters, which won’t bode well tonight. Castillo should play tonight as he was rested on Saturday, but be sure to check lineups as they are released.
Other Notables
- Jonathan Lucroy (MIL): $3,400 vs. ARI
- Salvador Perez (KC): $3,200 vs. LAA
- Willson Contreras (CHC): $3,200 @ CWS (GPP)
First Base
Anthony Rizzo (CHC): $4,700 @ CWS
Rizzo is my top option at first base tonight as he will face a fly ball pitcher in Miguel Gonzalez, who has allowed a .342 wOBA and 1.43 HR/9 to lefties the past couple of seasons. Rizzo is an elite hitter and he will be in a good environment tonight, surrounded by a talented lineup. This should produce plenty of run producing opportunities, so look for a big night from Rizzo.
Other Notables
- Edwin Encarnacion (TOR): $4,800 vs. SD (GPP)
- Paul Goldschmidt (ARI): $4,200 @ MIL
- Brandon Belt (SF): $3,300 vs. CIN
- Joey Votto (CIN): $3,300 @ SF (GPP)
Second Base
Jurickson Profar (TEX): $2,400 vs. OAK
Profar is an excellent source of salary relief tonight as he should hit lead off for a team that has an implied run total pushing six. Daniel Mengden has struggled against lefties in a small sample and his xFIP doesn’t suggest any sharp overall improvements on the horizon.
Other Notables
- Rougned Odor (TEX): $4,200 vs. OAK (GPP)
- Jean Segura (ARI): $3,700 @ MIL
- Jose Altuve (HOU): $3,600 vs. NYY
- Scooter Gennett (MIL): $3,500 vs. ARI (GPP)
Third Base
Danny Valencia (OAK): $2,700 @ TEX
Valencia sticks out as a great value tonight as the Athletics get a good park shift in their favor against a weak pitcher in Martin Perez. Perez does a good job of keeping the ball on the ground, but he doesn’t miss any bats (4.15 K/9) and control is also an issue (3.85 BB/9). Valencia has a good track record against lefties, posting a .379 wOBA since 2014, which makes him a strong dollar for dollar value.
Other Notables
- Kris Bryant (CHC): $4,800 @ CWS (GPP)
- Manny Machado (BAL): $4,000 vs. COL
- Jake Lamb (ARI): $3,600 @ MIL
Shortstop
Marcus Semien (OAK): $3,200 @ TEX
I picked on Martin Perez earlier, so let’s take a look at Semien’s numbers against left-handed pitching. He has provided some pop over the last couple of seasons, posting a .217 ISO against lefties while doing a solid job overall at getting on base (.368 wOBA). Semien should benefit from a prime spot in the batting order and with Oakland being on the road, he could be afforded an extra at-bat tonight.
Other Notables
- Trevor Story (COL): $3,400 @ BAL (GPP)
- Carlos Correa (HOU): $3,300 vs. NYY
- Troy Tulowitzki (TOR): $2,800 vs. SD
Outfielders
Mike Trout (LAA): $4,100 @ KC
Trout checks in as a top five hitter tonight, while standing in as the top outfield play. While Trout won’t hold the platoon advantage, opposing pitcher Ian Kennedy is allowing a lot of hard contact this season, which could get him into trouble tonight. Kansas City’s home field is playing favorable for hitters due to the extreme weather conditions, and with Trout’s soft tag, he should be a strong candidate to play in your lineups across all formats tonight.
Mark Trumbo (BAL): $3,300 vs. COL
The MLB home run leader will have the splits in his favor tonight against Jorge De La Rosa, who has allowed a .343 wOBA and 1.23 HR/9 to right-handed hitters since 2014. Over that same time frame, Trumbo has hit lefties well, posting a .250 ISO. Trumbo experienced a power outage of sorts over the last 10 games, but he homered twice over the weekend, so his salary feels too low given the good matchup.
Giancarlo Stanton (MIA): $3,100 vs. PHI
Stanton is underpriced despite the same-handed matchup at home, so don’t be afraid to target his power upside tonight. Jeremy Hellickson has struggled with right-handed power over the last couple of seasons, allowing 1.44 HR/9. Stanton has been showing signs of life recently, which makes this soft salary very appealing in roster construction.
Other Notables
- Ryan Braun (MIL): $4,100 vs. ARI
- Carlos Gonzalez (COL): $3,700 @ BAL
- George Springer (HOU): $3,500 vs. NYY (GPP)
- Dexter Fowler (CHC): $3,400 @ CWS
- Nomar Mazara (TEX): $2,900 vs. OAK
My Lineup
- SP – Dallas Keuchel (HOU): $8,600 vs. NYY
- C – Welington Castillo (ARI): $2,800 @ MIL
- 1B – Anthony Rizzo (CHC): $4,700 @ CWS
- 2B – Jurickson Profar (TEX): $2,400 vs. OAK
- 3B – Danny Valencia (OAK): $2,700 @ TEX
- SS – Marcus Semien (OAK): $3,200 @ TEX
- OF – Mike Trout (LAA): $4,100 @ KC
- OF – Mark Trumbo (BAL): $3,300 vs. COL
- OF – Giancarlo Stanton (MIA): $3,100 vs. PHI
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Adam Sutton is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Adam, follow him @DraftStars_Adam. You can find more of Adam’s work at DraftStars.net.
