Can a new coach help Ryan Tannehill turn in another top 10 QB performance?

Derek Lofland provides a quarterback position primer for the 2016  fantasy football season.

This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Derek head to Fantasy Football Maniax.

One topic of conversation that comes up every off-season before fantasy owners draft their rosters is the depth of the quarterback position. There are some fantasy owners that refuse to buy into waiting to draft a quarterback and draft the stud fantasy quarterback from last year, which would be Carolina Panthers QB Cam Newton or the perennial fantasy quarterback stud, Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers.

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I think this statistical analysis will demonstrate how potent the scoring was for fantasy quarterbacks in 2015 and why it is possible to wait until later in fantasy drafts to take a quarterback. Pittsburgh Steelers WR Antonio Brown was lights out last year posting 136 receptions for 1,834 yards and 10 touchdowns. Those numbers were good for 246.2 fantasy points in standard scoring leagues. No running back, wide receiver or tight end had more fantasy points than Brown in 2015.

Furthermore, Brown did not have a weak season for an overall leader. His 1,834 yards receiving was the fourth highest single-season total and it compares favorably to other historic receiver seasons. When New England Patriots WR Randy Moss tallied 98 receptions for 1,493 yards and 23 touchdowns in 2007, he tallied 287 points according to Pro Football Reference. That’s a significant amount of points when compared to Brown, but not a massive gap, and that was the best fantasy season for a receiver in the history of the NFL.

However, if Brown would have played quarterback in 2015 and he had scored 246.2 fantasy points, he would have been the 18th ranked fantasy quarterback. If Moss’s 2007 season, which is the gold standard for fantasy receivers, had been tallied by a quarterback, it would have ranked 11th among quarterbacks in 2015.

That is how dominant the quarterback position was in 2015. There are only 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL and over half of them were better than the highest scoring running back, wide receiver or tight end. Even when compared to Moss and his historic 2007 season, 10 quarterbacks were better than that season.

If you want further evidence of how much scoring is going on at the quarterback position, take Minnesota Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater as a prime example. He was an awful fantasy quarterback last year, not worth owning in any league, and he is not being drafted in most leagues this year. He had 200.4 fantasy points, which is more than the 199.3 scored by All-Pro First Team running back, Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Doug Martin.

When you have that much scoring at the quarterback position compared to every other position in the NFL, it requires fantasy owners to take a step back and look at the big picture. While there may be a temptation to draft Newton or Rodgers in the first or second round, is that the best use of a first or second round draft pick?

I would argue that it is not the best use of a fantasy draft pick because there are so many quarterbacks that are going to be viable in fantasy this year. Most leagues only start one quarterback per week, compared to two-to-three running backs or wide receivers. Going with two good quarterbacks over one elite signal caller allows you to play matchups and take the quarterback that goes against the weakest defense that week.

That does not mean that a fantasy owner is going to kill himself by drafting a player like Newton or Rodgers early in a fantasy draft. However, it puts more pressure on the fantasy owner to hit home runs with their running backs and wide receivers later in the draft. It also is going to hurt the depth at those positions, which means that injuries to the running backs or wide receivers could leave a fantasy team with a great quarterback, but a roster that is going to struggle to compete against fantasy teams with more depth at the other positions.

Here are some quarterbacks that could be sleepers this year, some quarterbacks that could bust and some bounce-back candidates for 2016.

Sleepers

Marcus Mariota (TEN)
Mariota showed some flashes of brilliance last year, none brighter than his opening week. He had 209 yards passing and four passing touchdowns on just 15 passing attempts. However, he was not very consistent and he ended up being just the 22nd ranked fantasy quarterback. Injuries derailed him, as he missed four starts. He was also the victim of playing behind a horrible offensive line and he had a sack percentage of 9.3 percent. He was ninth in sacks (39), despite being 25th in passing attempts (370). I think being a year removed from his rookie season and a better offensive line and running game should help him be more productive in 2016. He is a good sleeper bet to crack the Top-15 among fantasy quarterbacks, especially with his ability to run the football.

Teddy Bridgewater (MIN)
There just are not a ton of good sleeper picks at the quarterback position when the top 17 scoring players in fantasy last year were quarterbacks. I am not a huge fan of Bridgewater in fantasy because he plays on a team that prefers to take the air out of the ball and play good defense. However, Bridgewater is entering his third season, and the Vikings did add WR Laquon Treadwell in the first round and star German League WR Moritz Boehringer in the sixth. They also have WR Stefon Diggs coming off a solid rookie campaign, and WR Charles Johnson has impressed in OTAs. It is possible they throw the ball more this year. If that is the case, Bridgewater is a candidate to outperform his ECR (Expert Consensus Ranking) of 28 and his ADP (Average Draft Position) of 21.

Busts

Tony Romo (DAL)
I am not a big fan of Romo’s ECR (12) and ADP (11). The problem is not that he lacks the talent to finish that high, from 2009 to 2014 he finished between fifth and 11th all but one season. The problem is that Romo is an old 36 years old at this point in his career. He has a surgically-repaired back and has broken his collarbone three times since 2010. Romo was concerned enough about the collarbone injury that he had a plate inserted this off-season to protect it from further injury. At that high ADP, he will need to play 16 games and play at an elite level. There is no room for him to have injuries and still reach that ADP. Romo is someone that I will probably not own this year. There are too many better options out there that are more likely to stay healthy.

Tom Brady (NE)
Let’s assume that Brady was not suspended for four games this year. He is still a 39-year old quarterback that has started 223 games in the NFL. It is a big gamble to take a quarterback like that high in your fantasy draft, even if he was the second ranked fantasy quarterback in 2014. Yet, his ADP is ninth and his ECR is 11th, which means that with a four-game suspension, he would need to play at the same level as last year. He might even need to play better because 75 percent of last year’s production would be 3,577 yards, 27 touchdowns and 258 fantasy points. That would have made him the 17th ranked fantasy quarterback if scoring is similar to last season. I do not think his current rating adequately factors in his four-game suspension nor does it adequately factor in his 39-year-old body. He is vastly overrated and could be a bust this year if age finally catches up to the future Hall of Fame quarterback. Regardless, I cannot see him finishing in the top-10 with a four-game suspension.

Bounce-Back

Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
I think this one is pretty obvious, his ECR is sixth and his ADP is fifth, despite the fact that he was the 20th ranked fantasy quarterback last year. The reason people are buying into Big Ben rebounding in 2016 is that he missed four starts due to injury last year and was dinged in several other starts. He is reportedly down about 15 pounds and if he is healthy, he could pass for close to 5,000 yards this season. Another player to throw in this category is Indianapolis QB Andrew Luck. He missed nine games last year with injury and should be a QB1 if he can play 16 games this year.

Ryan Tannehill (MIA)
Tannehill started all 16 games last year, but he is not receiving a ton of love this off-season. His ECR is just 21 and his ADP is 22. Keep in mind that Tannehill still threw for 4,208 yards and 24 touchdowns with just 12 interceptions despite losing is head coach after the first four games of the season due to an in-season house cleaning. He has a quarterback guru for a head coach, Adam Gase, and two promising young wide receivers, WR Jarvis Landry and WR DeVante Parker. Tannehill has a good chance to bounce back this year and he should be closer to the 9th ranked fantasy quarterback he was in 2014, not the 21st ECR that he is currently being tabbed.

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