Thomas Rawls made a lot of owners happy last year but that doesn’t mean he’ll do the same in 2016

I’ll be the first one to say that I’ve been guilty of grabbing a player where his average draft position was fairly high and in the end, it backfired. Every year, there are several players that the fantasy community drafts that really shouldn’t be sniffing the spot that they’re being taken in. Regardless, these players climb up draft boards only to disappoint owners who grabbed them at their average draft position (ADP), which may have been a round or two too high.

It’s easy to get suckered into it. I mean how can so many people be wrong? Well for starters, there are plenty of people who don’t do their homework and just go with the flow. Since you’re here reading this though, you should have a leg up. We’re asking our featured pundits to analyze the composite ADP and tell us who they feel are overvalued at a few key positions.

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Q1. Name the RB you believe is the most overvalued according to our RB ADP Rankings and tell us why you feel that way.

Thomas Rawls (RB – SEA)
RB ADP: #13
“Thomas Rawls near the RB1 level, are you serious? I understand that Rawls looked better than Marshawn Lynch last year, but the man might not see the field until Week 1. In addition, the Seahawks have plenty of options in the backfield. Even if Rawls is ready for Week 1, Christine Michael (the hope won’t die), Alex Collins and C.J. Prosise add so much depth that the Seahawks don’t NEED to give Rawls 20-plus touches a game. Maybe… maybe… Rawls gets back to that level eventually, but what reason does the team have to risk that kind of workload on a player returning from injury and likely seeing no game action until the regular season? I’m happy to have Rawls on my team, just not at the expense of C.J. Anderson, Carlos Hyde, etc., etc.”
– Jake Ciely (RotoExperts)

Jamaal Charles (RB – KC)
RB ADP: #8
“I feel like I’ve spent this entire offseason trying to convince people not to draft Jamaal Charles. He is going as RB8 and 16th overall, and there’s no way I’m paying that price for a running back with such an impressive list of significant injuries. Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware were good enough last season, and I can’t see the Chiefs using Charles as a workhorse if they want to see him anywhere near a football field come December.”
– Donald Gibson (Fantasy Fusion)

Jonathan Stewart (RB – CAR)
RB ADP: #20
“He averaged 76 rushing yards per outing in 2015 and found the end zone seven times in his 13 contests. Counting the playoffs, Stewart ended with 1,207 yards and 10 scores in 16 games a year ago. However, he only had 20 receptions which crushes his value a bit, especially in PPR formats. Throw in his durability issues (4 years in a row he’s missed at least 3 games due to injury) and the Carolina RB offers very little upside.”
– Dan Clasgens (Get Sports Info)

Dion Lewis (RB – NE)
RB ADP: #22
“I’ve loved Dion Lewis since his days at Pittsburgh and bought in last season with the Patriots. But that was a waiver wire claim or late round flyer, not as the No. 22 RB. The diminutive Lewis still hasn’t returned to practice from an ACL injury that ended his 2015 campaign. Also, come on, it’s never easy trusting a Patriots running back.”
– Ben Standig (CSN Mid-Atlantic)

Doug Martin (RB – TB)
RB ADP: #9
“When looking at my running back rankings in comparison to the ECR, I see that I’m down on Doug Martin compared to the field. He’s the 10th best back according to my peers, but I have him a bit further down, at 15. In truth, this has more to do with being bullish on his teammate, Charles Sims, than it does on Martin. Not only is Sims a great asset in the passing game, ranking third among running backs in defensive-adjusted yards above replacement in the passing game, but he’s an underrated runner when given the opportunity. According to Football Outsiders’ Success Rate metric, which takes into consideration down and distance per play, Sims ranked second among all running backs in 2015.”
– Ryan Noonan (The Fantasy Fix)

Q2. Name the WR you believe is the most overvalued according to our WR ADP Rankings and tell us why you feel that way.

Alshon Jeffery (WR – CHI)
WR ADP: #10
“Jeffery played in only nine games in 2015 and has already suffered a hamstring injury in training camp. He is currently being drafted as WR10 and 21st overall, ahead of guys that I like more including Mike Evans, Amari Cooper, Brandin Cooks, and several others. The risk is simply too high considering his injury history and the general lack of offensive effectiveness in Chicago. Oh yeah, and Kevin White is ready to roll now. The kid’s good.”
– Donald Gibson (Fantasy Fusion)

Julian Edelman (WR – NE)
WR ADP: #19
“Do you know the last time Julian Edelman played 16 games in back-to-back seasons? Well… never! Edelman has one 1-game season under his belt. While he was on a tear last year before getting hurt (WR1 in FPPG), he averaged just 8.9 and 9.3 per game the two years prior. The Patriots added Martellus Bennett, Tom Brady is out for the first four games and the team has about 17 options at receiver. There is no reason to draft Edelman inside the top 20, especially when you consider the names behind him.”
– Jake Ciely (RotoExperts)

Larry Fitzgerald (WR – ARI)
WR ADP: #27
“After his fast start in 2015, Fitzgerald only posted one 100-yard game after the calendar hit October and managed just four touchdowns in 13 games after five times in his first three contests of the season. Now 32, Fitz has hinted that this could be his final season. He’s been a special player but I expect him to be the third-best option in the Cardinals’ passing attack and better suited as WR4 in fantasy and then a weekly starting option in most formats.”
– Dan Clasgens (Get Sports Info)

Golden Tate (WR – DET)
WR ADP: #24
“Golden Tate is poised for a big season following Calvin Johnson’s retirement. Problem: Tate isn’t a true number one and may struggle in that role. Marvin Jones (WR38) is the Lions wide receiver I want especially some 14 or spots after Tate.”
– Ben Standig (CSN Mid-Atlantic)

Jordan Matthews (WR – PHI)
WR ADP: #30
“I don’t have Jordan Matthews as a top-30 wide receiver this season but that’s his current ADP. He barely cracks my top-50 and that could dip even further over the next couple of weeks. You could make a case that no one did less with more than Matthews did in ’15, and a dip in targets due in part to the slower pace that Philadelphia will likely play at in 2016 doesn’t help. I’m not sure how the addition of Dorial Green-Beckham impacts Matthews, but it’s not going to help.”
– Ryan Noonan (The Fantasy Fix)

Q3. Name the QB you believe is the most overvalued according to our QB ADP Rankings and tell us why you feel that way.

Ben Roethlisberger (QB – PIT)
QB ADP: #5
“Seeing Roethlisberger in the top 5 baffles me. Is it because he has Antonio Brown? Seriously, I want to know why people are taking him so high. Even if you ranked quarterbacks using Fantasy Points Per Game, Roethlisberger would have been the 10th best quarterback last year. Not only does Big Ben rarely make it 16 games, he doesn’t have Martavis Bryant this year and has one touchdown or less in 13 of his last 28 games (two seasons). Using per-game upside as reason to draft Roethlisberger is just flawed.”
– Jake Ciely (RotoExperts)

Tony Romo (QB – DAL)
QB ADP: #12
“He put 306 yards through the air per game in 2012, but has only averaged 248 yards per contest since. Now 36, Romo enters 2016 with serious durability concerns and is in an offense that appears to be all in on running the football. He can no longer be counted on as QB1. He’s not a bad QB2, but I’d rather take a stab on a player that possesses more upside. He offers nothing as a runner either, which doesn’t help his value.”
– Dan Clasgens (Get Sports Info)

Russell Wilson (QB – SEA)
QB ADP: #3
“Despite having a career year in 2015, Russell Wilson should not be going as QB3 and 42nd overall. I don’t trust either of his main weapons in Doug Baldwin or Tyler Lockett (yet, at least), and I think this offense is going to try to pound the ball after drafting a multitude of running backs to go along with Thomas Rawls and Christine Michael. Additionally, I’d rather have the three quarterbacks being drafted after him in Andrew Luck, Ben Roethlisberger, and Drew Brees.”
– Donald Gibson (Fantasy Fusion)

Philip Rivers (QB – SD)
QB ADP: #11
“Let’s go with Philip Rivers. Look, Rivers is typically a good source for production and likely will again, but trusting him as a QB1 this year seems a bit much. Other than Keenan Allen, the Chargers don’t have a single receiver I trust this season. Maybe if Danny Woodhead plays all 16 games and maybe if Antonio Gates can have one final magical year, but I’d rather wait and play the QBBC game than take Rivers too soon.”
– Ben Standig (CSN Mid-Atlantic)

Derek Carr (QB – OAK)
QB ADP: #13
“My QB rankings don’t differ very much from the ADP at this point. I will say that I expect Oakland to be a bit better this season and thus Derek Carr will likely play with a lead more often than he did last season. No team had a higher percent of passing attempts per game than Oakland did last season, so a dip in attempts could lead to a few less fantasy points per game. I like the player but he might have a less favorable game script from a fantasy perspective this season.”
– Ryan Noonan (The Fantasy Fix)

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We’d like to thank each expert for naming their overvalued players. Please be sure to give them a follow on Twitter and leave a comment below with your thoughts. For more fantasy advice, listen to our latest podcast below.

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