Amari Cooper’s rookie season was stunted by injuries
Amari Cooper should have been a top 12 wide receiver last year. Last year, Cooper posted 72 receptions on 130 targets and 1,070 yards (15 yards per catch) with six touchdowns. Cooper had a successful rookie campaign and had to play through injuries. Cooper had a mid-November quad injury and suffered a foot injury in practice leading up to Week 14. Cooper himself during an interview with KGMZ San Francisco said this about his injuries “I think it affected everything. Me being a receiver, it affected my whole game.”
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We can speculate, what if Cooper didn’t get hurt half way through the season and was able to maintain the same pace during the second half of the season. Cooper was on pace for 90 receptions for 1,306 yards and eight touchdowns. With those stats, Cooper would have been in the top 12 of wide receivers in overall points (PPR).
But I’m not done, let’s go deeper into Coopers’ rookie season. According to Pro Football Focus, Cooper led the NFL with 18 drops on 90 catchable passes (20% drop rate). Now, did his injuries have anything to do with the drops? I’m no doctor, but let’s just say Cooper cuts that 20% in half and only had nine drops. Cooper would of have finished with 99 receptions for 1,441 yards and nine touchdowns. Those numbers would have placed him as the seventh-ranked WR for 2015 just behind Allen Robinson.
That was last year, what is in store for Cooper in 2016? Cooper will be a top-five wide receiver this year and break out in his second season. Historically, wide receiver stats ascend after their rookie year and Cooper will continue that trend. Cooper is proclaimed “healthy” and injury-free through the off-season and training camp. Cooper is oozing with confidence heading into his potential breakout year, as noticed by both his quarterback Derek Carr and fellow wide receiver Michael Crabtree in June.
In training camp, Cooper is rooming with his quarterback and soon-to-be best friend, Carr. The stars are aligning for Cooper and his stats will only improve. Barring injury and unforeseen circumstances, Cooper will decrease his drop rate. I project Cooper to post 110 receptions for 1,600 yards and 10 touchdowns. Those projections are a modest 11% increase and would likely result in a place in the top five of wide receivers.
Currently, Cooper has an ADP, in most PPR leagues, in the low 20s. With his upside he might be the best second-round value of the draft. With that being said, I strongly suggest targeting Cooper in the second round in PPR leagues.
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Ryan Magnuson is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Ryan, check out his archive.
