Is Russell Wilson due to bounce back in Week 3?

I don’t know how to officially measure this, but this has to be the craziest start to a fantasy football season of all time, right? Matt Ryan is your overall scoring leader, despite playing his second game on the West Coast and outdoors, and Julio Jones leaving the game early. Matt Forte is on pace for 472 touches and is the second-highest scoring running back. Late round picks like Willie Snead and Stefon Diggs are dominating the wide receiver leaderboard. Oh, and also, 90% of people reading this have lost at least one of their studs to a major injury already.

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As you can see from Matt Ryan being your scoring leader, the QB position has been just as nutty as the every other position. Certainly, Week 2 was no exception. I mean, what’s happening here? Blaine Gabbert at Carolina? Jimmy Garappolo in one half of football? Sam Bradford in his first start with the Vikings after having a week or two to learn the offense? I came this close to recommending Gabbert over Aaron Rodgers, but opted against it. That’s the last time I go conservative in these picks!

So, let’s recap both my picks and the actual finishes (we’re using FantasyPros leaderboard from now on, because, like all things fantasy, FantasyPros’ content is better). Here’s my one caveat – this article, other than for Week 1, comes out on Friday. Therefore, I exclude QBs playing in the Thursday games from both my picks and the final “top 12” rating. Just feels a little like cheating if I had thrown Tyrod Taylor and his three TDs in as a QB1 after the fact, you know? Unless you guys are cool with that, in which case I get to be much more accurate and you guys get much less advice. So, let’s stick with this way.

My Picks:

1) Aaron Rodgers
2) Cam Newton
3) Drew Brees
4) Carson Palmer
5) Ben Roethlisberger
6) Derek Carr
7) Matthew Stafford
8) Blake Bortles
9) Eli Manning
10) Philip Rivers
11) Kirk Cousins
12) Joe Flacco

Notable omissions: Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson

Now, let’s see how the quarterbacks actually finished:

1) Cam Newton
2) Matt Ryan
3) Derek Carr
4) Carson Palmer
5) Philip Rivers
6) Ryan Tannehill
7) Jimmy Garoppolo
8) Blaine Gabbert
9) Ben Roethlisberger
10) Andy Dalton
11) Sam Bradford
12) Kirk Cousins/Blake Bortles

So, of the top 11, I got five right. Although Cousins and Bortles were both technically in the top 12, I’ll count only one of them as correct.  I am doing this for two reasons. The first is that, being truthful, I obviously would not have had Fitzpatrick or Taylor as QB1s even had I written the column before Thursday’s game, so I definitely wasn’t “correct” on both Cousins and Bortles being top-12 QBs.  And second, I’m trying to engender your good will to make up for the fact that I accurately predicted only HALF of the QB1s.  Did it work? No? You just want better picks? Got it.

While I’m ducking from whatever you’re throwing at me, let’s at least note that I accurately predicted stinkers from Luck and Wilson, two guys who were within the top 12 in the ECR. So, you know, that’s something, right? And I will say that, in looking at the landscape, I feel mildly more confident this week than last week. So, let’s come out strong and say that I’m going to nail all 12 of these. Go big or go home.

And by all 12, I mean at least 9. I’m confident. I’m not crazy.

The Obvious Names

Drew Brees (NO) – I think I will likely leave Brees off this list for every road game until he shows me why I shouldn’t (as I mentioned in my first article this year, Brees threw for just nine touchdowns and had six interceptions on the road last year). But at home on Monday night against the Falcons? We could change the title of this article to “Predicting the Top Two QBs” and Brees would be named in it this week. Monster game coming.

Aaron Rodgers (GB) – Your fact of the week is coming, but I will throw in some analysis because Rodgers finished outside the top 12 last week. I do not love the Green Bay offense right now. Randall Cobb looks non-existent and I’m beginning to think that “Skinny” Eddie Lacy is like the Loch Ness Monster or Big Foot – yeah, we’ve heard of it, we’ve some grainy pictures suggesting that it exists, but not sure anyone has actually seen it with his own eyes. Still, an angry Rodgers at home against Detroit is an easy call. Oh, and Rodgers almost quit football and pursued a law degree after colleges had such a lack of interest in him out of high school.

Andrew Luck (IND) – Predictably bad on the road last week against a top defense, but will be predictably good at home this week against a subpar defense. The Donte Moncrief injury hurts, and I don’t like hearing about his shoulder issues. But this is a get-right game for Luck and the Indy offense after two tough losses. If not, Luck owners need to start thinking about a Plan B.

Cam Newton (CAR) – There will come a day when the hits that Cam has taken over his career take their toll, and he will not be an elite option. That day is not this coming Sunday, and likely will not be this season or the next. The Vikings have an excellent defense, but do you really want to sit Superman? Lex Luthor couldn’t defeat Superman. Do you think the Vikings defense can?

Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) – When Ben still makes the top 12 and Antonio Brown is not involved at all, you know he’s a lock to be here this week. I do have some mild reservations about this game. The Philly defense looks very good, it won’t be a shootout, and this is the final game that the Steelers can give their running back 1,000 carries without worrying about the after-effects. But, it will take a lot more than that to keep Ben out of this column.

The Still Confident Names

Matt Ryan (ATL) – He probably belongs in the obvious name department, but I feel like if I keep him down a spot, he’ll really feel the need to prove something, right? Ryan has looked awesome so far this season, and he almost always torches the Saints in their building (at least 295 yards in each of his last five games there). Also, despite last week’s solid (and tremendously disappointing from a fantasy perspective) performance, the Saints’ passing defense is not good, having given up nearly 700 yards in the air through two games. So, Ryan is probably staying atop the leaderboard for another week.

Philip Rivers (SD) – Man, poor Philip Rivers. First, he lost Stevie Johnson in the preseason. Then Keenan Allen in Week 1, and now Danny Woodhead in Week 2. If I’m Antonio Gates, I’m asking to sit out this week. Eventually, the loss of Rivers’ weapons will catch up to him. But, with Gates and Travis Benjamin still healthy and in a matchup indoors against the Colts, Rivers should be able to provide solid production.

Carson Palmer (ARI) – I will note for the record that I suggested that Carson could be a top-5 quarterback last week and he finished fourth. Note – “suggested that [insert player] could be” is the fantasy industry way of saying “I thought this could happen but didn’t want to stick my neck out too far because I already write a bold predictions column.” Or something like that. Anyway, if we’re late in the season, then I’ll generally shy away from QBs in Buffalo. I’ve been there. It’s windy and it snows. But, as Ryan Fitzpatrick just showed, Rex Ryan doesn’t seem to have the magic this year, at least not in the warm weather. Start Palmer with confidence.

The Slightly Less Confident Names

Blake Bortles (JAC) – I thought Bortles might not be as good for fantasy purposes this season because the Jaguars’ defense would be better, meaning he wouldn’t have to chase points. Well, he’s still chasing points, but he simply doesn’t look as good. My guess is there’s a heavy dose of Allen Robinson in this one, as the Jags look to get in the win column. Baltimore will put up some points, and Bortles will be throwing. So, let’s bring back the 2015 garbage time Blake Bortles, for old time’s sake, shall we?

Eli Manning (NYG) – He wouldn’t be Eli Manning if we could predict when he’d be good, eh? A matchup against the Saints’ leaky defense? Why would anyone expect that to go well? Well, whatever. I’m going back to the well on Eli, at home against a Redskins team on the verge of mutiny. At some point, OBJ will stop dropping touchdown passes, and Manning has a great history against the Redskins. You know the team is desperate to get Beckham a touchdown against Josh Norman, so Eli should be good for tons of yards and at least a touchdown.

The Frisky Names

These guys aren’t standard names, but they’re ranked 13th and 15th in the expert consensus rankings. So, I’ve decided on the term “frisky.” That’s better than “kind of surprising but not crazy,” me thinks.

Ryan Tannehill (MIA) – Ok, this just feels like time for Adam Gase to showcase his offensive genius, right? 0-2, at home against the hapless Browns, Arian Foster hurt, and DaVante Parker reminding everyone why he was such a preseason darling (before, you know, the preseason games started). This has to be a huge game. If Jay Ajayi has four touchdowns, I’m just not going to be happy. Give Tannehill a momentary respite from those angry Dolphins fans, won’t you, Mr. Gase?

Marcus Mariota (TEN) – I don’t know what to make of Mariota this season just yet, but he’s looked pretty solid in both starts this season, throwing two touchdowns in each game. Also, the Raiders have given up the most points to quarterbacks this season, and while I recognize that the first game was against Drew Brees in New Orleans, I will gently say that I lack confidence in this defense.

The Glaring Omissions

Russell Wilson and Derek Carr. Man, that Seahawks offense is a mess right now, with Wilson battling an ankle sprain and their top three offensive weapons nursing injuries. Wilson will get right eventually, but I’ll pass on this game. And I expect good things from Carr, for sure, but this is more about just liking the 12 guys named above a bit better.

So, there we are. I will feel confident that I will get right at least the seven I promised . . . . What? Oh, I promised nine. Didn’t think you’d catch that. Well, book it, then. Good luck, friends.

Week 2: 6-6

Overall Record: 14-10 (58%)

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Dan Harris is a correspondent with FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him @danharris80.