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Fantasy Football Overvalued/Undervalued: Week 10

by Aaron Medvidofsky
Nov 11, 2016

Jay Cutler

Jay Cutler could return QB1 value in a favorable Week 10 matchup

Aaron Medvidofsky analyzes which players he believes are overvalued or undervalued in Week 10.

This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Aaron head to FantasyTruth.

In this column, I reveal the players that I believe are being overvalued or undervalued on a weekly basis. This is based on where I stand on a player in comparison to the FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings, or ECR for short. For Week 10 I’ll be giving you one overvalued and one undervalued player at each position along with the reasons that my opinion differs from the other experts.

Before getting into my Week 10 picks, let’s take a moment and see how I did against the experts in Week 9. These results are based on FantasyPros Fantasy Football Leaders.

Overvalued

  • Matthew Stafford (QB – DET) ECR: 11th – Finished: 16th – Winner: FantasyTruth
  • Jay Ajayi (RB – MIA) ECR: 8th – Finished: 6th – Winner: ECR
  • Michael Thomas (WR – NO) ECR: 18th – Finished: 2nd – Winner: ECR
  • Eric Ebron (TE – DET) ECR: 10th – Finished: 11th – Winner: ECR

Undervalued

  • Sam Bradford (QB – MIN) ECR: 19th – Finished: 14th – Winner: FantasyTruth
  • Mark Ingram (RB – NO) ECR: 19th – Finished: 3rd – Winner: FantasyTruth
  • Allen Robinson (WR – JAC) ECR: 18th – Finished: 12th – Winner: FantasyTruth
  • Dwayne Allen (TE – IND) ECR: 20th – Finished: 36th – Winner: ECR

I was 50/50 picking against the experts in Week 9. This week I learned never to bet against Jay Ajayi, and that Dwayne Allen is even further from a startable tight end than I thought. With those lessons learned let’s look towards Week 10.

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Overvalued

Tom Brady (QB – NE) ECR: 1st

Why the experts like him
Since his return in Week 5, Brady has been on a tear, averaging 330 yards and three touchdowns a game. Brady and his receivers should be well rested coming off of their bye week which has given them ample time to plan for the Seattle Seahawks.

Why I think he’s overvalued
This will be Brady’s toughest test this year by far. The Seahawks have allowed only one multi-touchdown game so far this year and that was to Matt Ryan who has also been lighting up the scoreboard. I’m not expecting much out of Seattle offensively which could lead to more of a LeGarrette Blount type of game this week.

Robert Kelley (RB – WAS) ECR: 25th

Why the experts like him
Kelley seems to have taken the Washington backfield away from Matt Jones half way through the season. Some have seen this as the foregone conclusion for some time now as Kelley is simply the better running back. He could get a big workload this week if the game script allows it.

Why I think he’s overvalued
His ECR of 25th has Kelley as a borderline RB2 in 12 team leagues. I think he’ll get there this season, but not this week against Minnesota. The Vikings have proven to be a brutal matchup for opposing running backs this year and I don’t think Week 10 will be any different.

Stefon Diggs (WR – MIN) ECR: 17th

Why the experts like him
Diggs was targeted 14 times last week and managed to haul in 13 of those for 80 yards. He is clearly the top target of Sam Bradford and is worth weekly starting consideration. If he maintains the same target volume he will be tough to keep out of the WR2 discussion.

Why I think he’s overvalued
While Diggs’ target numbers last week were encouraging, we can’t forget that it came against the awful Detroit Lions passing defense. This week’s matchup against Washington doesn’t offer him the same upside, particularly if Diggs draws the attention of Josh Norman. Diggs is a risky play this week if you’re counting on WR2 production.

Tyler Eifert (TE – CIN) ECR: 4th

Why the experts like him
In his second game back from injury Eifert exploded for over 100 yards and a touchdown against the Washington Redskins. The Bengals are in need of receiving threats and Eifert seems to fit the bill, particularly as a red zone threat. Eifert was a top tier tight end last year and could be poised to pick up where he left off.

Why I think he’s overvalued
Last week’s performance was impressive, but it was also the second highest yardage total of Eifert’s career. He has historically relied on touchdowns to be a top tier tight end which is something that is very difficult to predict. The Giants defense is underrated, and I expect them to step up at home against Eifert and the Bengals this week.

Undervalued

Jay Cutler (QB – CHI) ECR: 16th

Why the experts dislike him
Cutler has only one game under his belt since returning from injury. Even before the injury, he was struggling with consistency through last year and into the start of the season. Cutler has been a tough quarterback to count on and it shows in his ECR this week.

Why I think he’s undervalued
Cutler managed to post an uninspiring but serviceable performance against a tough Minnesota defense last week. His opponent this week, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, have managed only four interceptions and less than two sacks per game. They are also allowing opposing quarterbacks to throw for 281 yards and two touchdowns per game, which is a pretty solid performance on any given week. Expect Cutler to find Alshon Jeffery and his other receivers early and often on his way to a QB1 performance this week.

Paul Perkins (RB – NYG) ECR: 31st

Why the experts dislike him
I suppose dislike is a strong word for a player that has yet to truly prove himself, but many are hesitant to buy in on Perkins this week. He has yet to prove himself as a consistent factor for the Giants and could be stuck in a committee with Rashad Jennings.

Why I think he’s undervalued
I believe this is Perkins’ breakout week. Despite playing fewer snaps than Jennings last week he essentially split the workload and outproduced him on a per touch basis. The Giants need to get their running game going, and I believe they realize that Perkins is their best chance of that happening. The Cincinnati Bengals have allowed at least one rushing touchdown each of the last four weeks which bodes well for the young running back.

Adam Humphries (WR – TB) ECR: 60th

Why the experts dislike him
Humphries has put up some dud games this year and has been difficult to count on from week to week. With Mike Evans cleared of the concussion protocol, it seems likely that Humphries will be relegated to his normal role on the offense which hasn’t amount to much so far.

Why I think he’s undervalued
Humphries has shined at times this year, and I believe he will start to earn a larger share of the targets as the season goes on. The Bears secondary provides him with a favorable matchup, and I think this will be a relatively high scoring game. Humphries will push WR3/Flex production this week which could make him a starter depending on your league format.

Austin Hooper (TE – ATL) ECR: 21st

Why the experts dislike him
Hooper is only in a starting role due to the shoulder injury that Jacob Tamme is currently dealing with. Tight end is a difficult position to learn, making it tough to trust Hooper on a weekly basis. The Eagles defense has done well against tight ends as a whole this year which could further limit his upside.

Why I think he’s undervalued
Tamme is tracking towards an inactive status for Week 10 which would make Hooper the primary tight end target for Atlanta this week. While the Eagles have been good against tight ends on the season, they have allowed at least 50 yards and/or a touchdown in each of the last four weeks. Hooper will continue to build more chemistry with Matt Ryan and could produce borderline TE1 numbers this week.


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