Antonio Brown continues to be an elite home-run threat

As we head into Week 14, the seasonal league fantasy playoffs are upon us in most formats. If you’ve qualified for the playoffs, congratulations. If you haven’t, best of luck next season in redraft leagues and, for those owners who didn’t make the playoffs in keeper formats, continue to scour the waiver wire for 2017 keepers until transactions are shut down.

As we head into playoffs, these tidbits which shed light on historic performance and player trends should help you to make up your mind on a start/sit dilemma you may be having, enable you to maximize DFS lineup production and/or help those dynasty or keeper format owners who are out of the playoffs resolve a keeper question they may have.

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In Week 13, Amari Cooper became the seventh receiver in NFL history under 23 years old to have 2,000 receiving yards.

There is no question that Amari Cooper is an incredible talent and an increasingly elite WR, as evidenced by this statistical tidbit. Clearly, he is in rarified air. That said, Cooper has been frustratingly inconsistent from a fantasy perspective given the Oakland offensive scheme which, in certain weeks, favors the run game in the red-zone and heavy involvement from co-wideout Michael Crabtree. For instance, in CBS full-point PPR leagues, Cooper has registered the following point totals beginning in Week 6: 27 (vs KC), 6 (vs Jac), 40 (vs TB), 11 (vs Den), Bye, 15 (vs Hou), 6 (vs Car), 13 (vs Buf). Guessing which week Cooper is going to go off is akin to randomly throwing darts because of how Derek Carr and the Oakland offense has spread the ball around/operated in the red-zone. Obviously, Cooper is a must-start in all formats, particularly as we head into the fantasy playoffs. In Week 14, Oakland will face the Chiefs, who Cooper put up 129 yards receiving on in Week 6 (to go with 10 receptions on 13 targets). Can he repeat this performance this week? Absolutely. Will he? No clue, but you can’t even remotely contemplate keeping him on the bench in either standard or PPR formats. For purposes of dynasty leagues and keeping Cooper in 2017, again, his playmaking ability is without question, and he makes for a solid keeper. That said, his fantasy inconsistency must necessarily go into your determination as to whether he is a value keeper depending upon what draft pick or auction value you will need to give up for him.

Antonio Brown’s eight TD receptions on 20+ yards downfield are the most in the NFL this season.

Brown has three more such “home-run” TD passes than anyone else in 2016. This statistical tidbit not only lends itself to evidencing how Brown remains the top fantasy WR in all formats but also evidences how he greatly differs from other top-tier WRs, such as Amari Cooper, because of his consistent production. Because of how Brown is utilized by the Pittsburgh offense, he has the opportunity to make huge plays and do so on a consistent basis. Certainly worthy of his pre-season ADP of No. 1 in all formats, Brown has not disappointed fantasy owners. There’s nothing to see here – Brown will remain a top fantasy option heading into 2017 and must, obviously, remain active in every format as we head to the 2016 fantasy playoffs. His capabilities also enhance the fantasy production of Ben Roethlisberger, to say the least, as well as Le’Veon Bell who benefits from the deep threat that Brown continues to provide.

According to Pro Football Focus, when throwing from a clean pocket in Week 13, Eli Manning had a passer rating of 58.4.

Pro Football Focus indicated that only Blake Bortles had a worse passer rating from a clean pocket in Week 13. Manning also now ranks 26th on the season in PFF’s overall QB grades with a passer rating of 53.9. The poor performance of Manning this season has largely been attributed to a poor OL which is now missing G Justin Pugh due to injury and a very ineffective left OT Ereck Flowers. That said, this statistical tidbit reveals a much more troubling issue given that Manning’s passer rating was so low when the pocket wasn’t collapsing behind a poor OL. It is likely that Manning’s difficulties and poor rating were less a result of solid pass protection on the part of the Steelers, although the Steelers have allowed the fourth-fewest points to fantasy WR this season, and more of an indictment of the Giants’ offensive scheme and passing game, in general. For example, in Week 13, Manning failed to target Victor Cruz once, who actually was on the field for three less snaps than undrafted free agent Roger Lewis (who only had eight yards receiving), and Manning threw an ill-advised red-zone interception when the Giants targeted TE Larry Donnell in the end zone on Donnell’s only snap of the game (when Donnell came in, almost anyone watching – and certainly the Steelers –knew it was coming his way). In addition, with no run game or legitimate TE, opposing defenses can afford to keep their safeties back which is forcing Manning to throw into heavy coverage. In Week 13, the only time the Giants were able to move the ball downfield was when they targeted Odell Beckham (16 targets), but there is only so many times they can go to that well. The Giants have been incredibly inefficient and inconsistent in the passing game all season, a warning sign which was evident way back in Week 2 when Manning was held out of the end zone against the Saints at home. As we head into Week 14, is it too late for the Giants to make adjustments and right-the-ship in the passing department? It’s unclear. Obviously, Odell Beckham remains a must-start but the rest of the Giants’ passing game (and rushing attack) remain too risky to use in the fantasy playoffs. On the opposite side of the ball, however, the Cowboys, Lions and Eagles defensive units (to the extent available) make for solid streaming options in Weeks 14, 15 and 16, respectively, when they face off against this reeling Giants’ offense.

In Week 13, the 49ers had an incomprehensible six net passing yards against the Bears, their fewest in a game since 1963.

That’s 53 years folks. When I checked the Niners-Bears stat line on my phone as it approached 4pm ET last Sunday, I actually thought the game stats were not updating on any of the sports apps I use. The 49ers, who have been absolutely horrific against the run this season, set a new low as it related to their passing game in Chicago in Week 13. In Week 14, we will all be treated to one of the premiere matchups in NFL history (not) as the Jets travel to San Francisco to take on the 49ers. The Jets, who just allowed Andrew Luck to throw for 278 yards and four TDs in Week 13 (before Luck was mercifully removed from the game after three quarters), will be tasked to stop the 49ers passing juggernaut and Colin Kaepernick who managed just four yards passing on one completion in Week 13. It will be a true battle of what is worse, the Jets’ passing defense which has pretty much given up on the 2016 season or the struggling 49ers passing game. For fantasy purposes, the Jets’ defense makes for a very intriguing option in DFS, if DFS players feel that the Jets will be able to “step up” following their massacre on Monday night, and shut down the 49ers’ struggling passing game and Kaepernick. Those owners in the seasonal fantasy playoffs should, however, not rest their season’s hopes on the Jets’ defense despite the excellent matchup. Of course, playoff bound owners most likely have better D/ST options already rostered. As for fantasy options on the 49ers in Week 14? Fantasy owners should obviously steer clear from all facets of the 49ers passing attack. Carlos Hyde is also a fade this week, given the Jets’ capabilities against the run, and the likelihood the Jets will stack the line daring Kaepernick to throw.

In Week 13, the Cowboys became the second NFL team in history to win 10 games with a rookie RB scoring and rookie QB throwing 10 TDs.

While Dak Prescott didn’t have a great fantasy performance in Week 13, managing just 139 passing yards with one TD against the Vikings, the Cowboys still managed to get the job done and win a tough road game on Thursday night. Ezekiel Elliott, who is as matchup-proof as they come, still ran for 86 yards and a TD (to go with four receptions and 19 yards) against a stout Minnesota defensive unit. Both rookies performing at such a high level, and on such a consistent basis, lends itself to continued fantasy success as the season winds down for not only Prescott and Elliott, but also Dez Bryant and, to a lesser extent, Cole Beasley in PPR formats. In Week 14, the Cowboys will face a Giants’ team which has struggled offensively, but one that has seen a recent resurgence on defense. Despite another difficult matchup, albeit less difficult than the Vikings, Elliott, obviously, remains a must-start, as does Prescott and Bryant. For dynasty purposes, Elliott is of course an elite keeper option, and Prescott will likely outperform his keeper value in 2017 (assuming he was drafted late or picked up as a free agent).

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Nicky Tapas is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Nicky, check out his archive and follow him @nickytapas71.