Can Carlos Gomez continue to produce in Texas?

The Texas Rangers entered the Winter Meetings looking to fill several holes in their lineup. With the reigning AL West champions being hit hard by free agency, and options limited by a lack of quality choices to replace those free agents—not to mention payroll concerns—general manager Jon Daniels had to be selective in his negotiations.

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One of the positions that Daniels had to take care of was center field. Last year, the Rangers took a chance on having career shortstop Ian Desmond be their center fielder and for the most part, it worked out quite well. The Rangers had signed Desmond to a one-year deal right before Spring Training when the former Washington National was unable to secure the long-term deal he was seeking. Daniels expressed interest in bringing Desmond back, but it was also clear he had no intention of handing out the multi-year deal that was being requested.

So Daniels turned back to Carlos Gomez, the former All-Star who the Rangers signed last August after his release from Houston. Gomez had struggled with the Astros, hitting just .210 with five home runs and 29 RBI in 85 games—a far cry from his All-Star seasons of 2013-14 when he averaged 23 home runs, 73 RBI and 37 stolen bases. With the Rangers, things improved. The free-swinging Gomez hit .284 with eight home runs and 24 RBI in just 33 games, while spending most of his time in left field.

With Desmond signing a five-year, $70 million deal with the Rockies, the impetus to get Gomez back in the fold increased. And Gomez was willing to return with a one-year, $11.5 million deal that limits the Rangers risk and provides Gomez a similar situation to the one Desmond had last season—a chance to show the rest of the league that he still has unique talent.

According to Fred Zinkie (@FredZinkieMLB), Gomez will “head into 2017 as one of fantasy baseball’s biggest boom-or-bust picks.” Will he be the player the Rangers had for those last few weeks of the season, or will he once again be a strikeout machine who has seen his better days?

Here’s my two cents:

First, I like Desmond probably a little more than Gomez, but not by much—and certainly don’t believe Desmond is worth a $70 million commitment (although in Colorado, he may hit 40 bombs). Both are amazingly similar players—they are each 31 years old, they each have power and the ability to steal bases, and they each strike out way too much. Though Desmond did a nice job handling center field, particularly in the first half, Gomez is certainly a more established outfielder. His defensive WAR number (11.2) is on par with Lorenzo Cain and Jason Heyward, both considered outstanding defensive outfielders. Gomez still has pop in his bat, and the fact that he stole five bases in his 33 games with the Rangers indicates he still has some juice in his legs.

Zinkie sees Gomez projecting out at 17 home runs and 20 stolen bases in 2017, but fears that until his contact rate improves, he will continue to be a drag in the batting average category. I tend to agree. Gomez is probably no better than a No. 4 fantasy outfielder heading into the season, but that could change dramatically. The only question is in which direction.

Mitch Cox is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Mitch, check out his archive and follow @chicofathead.