This is the second edition of Batted Ball Profiles, a monthly article where I’ll — you guessed it — go through the batted ball profiles of various players, and see what their fantasy value looks like moving forward. You can learn a lot about a player if you study things like how often they’re making hard contact, whether they’re hitting fly balls or ground balls, and if they’re getting lucky with home runs.
This time around, I’ll take a look at some extremes on the batted balls spectrum and how it’s affecting these players, positively or negatively.
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Missing Out on the Fly Ball Revolution Memo
Much has been written this season about the growing movement of players altering their swing to hit more fly balls, many of whom have found great success. Perhaps the most notable and surprising convert this season is Yonder Alonso, who has already hit a career-high 16 home runs, and we’re not even at the All-Star Break. His previous high was just nine, in 2012.
Of course, not every player can have success with this strategy. After all, it doesn’t fit Billy Hamilton’s skill set to start swinging for the fences in every at-bat. But there are two players who have skewed in the opposite direction — hitting more groundballs — who might benefit from an influx of fly balls.
Villar is coming off a surprise breakout 2016 in which he scored 92 runs, slugged 19 homers and stole 62 bases, all career-highs by a landslide. He had a solid .285/.369/.457 line and 35.1% hard-hit rate, and many were expecting more of the same this year. However, early returns haven’t been great for Villar. Punchouts have always been an issue, but it’s risen to a concerning 30.9% rate, and his 72% contact rate is his lowest since 2014. The result is a paltry .207/.281/.315 line, a far cry from last season. He’s still stealing bases (14), but he’s been knocked off his perch leading off for the Brewers, relegated to hitting seventh, a big blow to his counting stats.
Although he’s never been much of a fly ball hitter, Villar is noticeably hitting more grounders. He had a 55.6% ground-ball rate last year, but in 2017 that figure is up to 63.5%, which leads all qualified hitters. With that frequency of grounders and his whiff problems, he has just five homers, and it’s difficult to imagine him sniffing almost 20 again. That said, he’s actually maintained a 96 mph average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives, along with a solid home-run-to-fly-ball rate (17.9%), and average hard-hit rate (31.9%). Obviously, a batter’s swing is a complicated animal, so it’s not as simple as saying “hit more fly balls,” and it will happen. But if he can get more loft on his balls, and drop that strikeout rate a few percentage points, maybe that sneaky power can return. There’s still plenty of potential here. However, if things continue as they are, last season will begin to look more like a fluke than a building block.
A popular draft pick going into the season, big things were expected of Desmond when he signed a contract with the Colorado Rockies, meaning he could embrace the high altitude in Coors Field, the hitter’s equivalent of gaining superpowers. Reaching 20 homers and 20 swiped bags in four of the last five seasons, many a fantasy owner had dreams of that and then some in Desmond’s new digs. But things got off to a poor start when he was hit in the hand by a pitch in Spring Training, leading him to miss the first month of the season. Since his return, he’s struggled to live up to his offseason billing. He has just three home runs (none in Coors) and a meager .117 ISO.
Much like Villar, Desmond typically has a high ground-ball rate (53.4% the last two seasons), but it’s up to 60.9% this year. Hitting the ball on the ground isn’t exactly taking advantage of Coors Field’s altitude. He, too, has whiff issues, so his 26.5% strikeout rate isn’t out of character, but a 2.9% walk rate hasn’t helped his cause, resulting in a .296 OBP. Still, it’s too soon to panic. He’s making hard contact at a decent clip (33%) and could still be feeling the ill-effects of the hand injury, which may improve over time. If he can up the fly balls, and increase his walks, a 20-20 season is still in the cards.
Taking the Fly Ball Revolution Too Seriously
On the other hand, we have Schimpf, who in 2016 led all hitters with at least 300 plate appearances in fly-ball rate (64.9%). It was reasonable to expect that figure to drop, but he’s up to the same tricks this season, leading all qualified bats at nearly the same mark (64.6%). Not surprisingly, with that many fly balls, he has a healthy number of bombs (14), but he’s paid the price in strikeouts (34.7% rate) and batting average (.161). The good news is among qualified hitters he also has by far the lowest BABIP (.146), and no matter how extreme his fly-ball tendencies, that ought to positively regress in the long run. However, his hard-hit rate is down (27.1%), which probably isn’t doing him any favors. Despite all the homers, his two doubles are his only other extra-base hits.
Schimpf is well on his way to easily reaching 30-plus homers, but it’s fair to wonder whether he could stand to pump the breaks on the all-or-nothing approach a little bit. Sure, chicks dig the long ball, and it’s not like he’ll ever be a batting champion, but batting around .200 is no fun either. He held a strikeout rate around 20% in Triple-A, a sign he might have it in him to reduce his punchouts.
That being said, last year he posted a .362 wOBA when he had a 39.7% hard-hit rate, so if he can go back to making more hard contact, perhaps he can make this work. Of course, for fantasy owners, the crippling batting average limits his appeal. If he shows any sign of reducing his fly balls and strikeouts, it could ultimately make him a better fantasy asset, even if it’s at the expense of some dingers.
Joining Schimpf at the top of the fly ball extreme is Gallo, who is hitting fly balls at a 59.8% clip. He’s been virtually the same player, with high whiffs (38%), low average (.204) and, naturally, a bunch of homers (16). But in Gallo’s case, he has a 43.1% hard-hit rate, helping lead to a .348 wOBA. He’s also a Statcast king. Among hitters with at least 100 batted ball events, he ranks sixth in average exit velocity (93.1 mph), with an even more impressive third on line drives and fly balls (100.3 mph). That puts him in the company of Aaron Judge, Khris Davis, and Miguel Sano, which is no small feat. Now you’re playing with power!
But striking out nearly 40% of the time is a major weakness and one we shouldn’t expect to change given his turnstile strikeout rates at every level of the minors. He’s just 23 years old, though, so there’s time for improvements. We can appreciate that immense power, but dialing it back could make him a better overall hitter and fantasy asset.
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Kenyatta Storin is a featured writer with FantasyPros. For more from Kenyatta, check out his archive and follow him @kenyattastorin.
