Do you know what’s great about the best wide receivers? All those yards and receptions. Do you know what’s even greater about the best wide receivers? Touchdowns!!! I love me some touchdowns. The true bread and butter of the fantasy football world. Yards and receptions keep you afloat, but touchdowns win matchups.

It’s no secret that touchdowns are difficult to predict. Mike Evans’ touchdown count his first three seasons; 12, 3, 12. I sense a pattern. He’s clearly going to finish 2017 with three touchdowns. I’m kidding (I hope). So we can’t really know how the touchdown numbers will play out. All we can do is play the odds. The higher the red zone targets, the more likely that player is to score a touchdown.

Everyone knows that Mike Evans and Odell Beckham swallow up a large percentage of their team’s red zone targets. Here, we’re going team by team and focus on situations where a portion of the target share is projected to change, either by players leaving, arriving, or otherwise. If we can accurately predict red zone targets, we have a better shot at finding some new touchdowns in 2017. We start with the AFC.

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