With the halfway point of the fantasy season fast approaching, now is as good a time to take stock of some hitters whose hot and cold stretches decorated the Regression Report earlier in the year. Which players have seen regression take its toll, and which have not corrected as rapidly as we might have expected? More importantly, what do the underlying stats tell us about these hitters going forward?

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Eric Thames (OF – MIL)
This season has seen the best of Thames and the worst of Thames. The KBO import grabbed the fantasy world by its throat with a scintillating first month of 2017 (1.272 OPS, 217 wRC+) only to suffer through a predictable but nonetheless harrowing cold stretch in June (.722 OPS, 80 wRC+). This leaves many owners just as puzzled on his rest-of-season fantasy value as they were at the start of the season.

But even the sub-par June results bear the earmarks of a strong bat in temporary slumber. That .205 BABIP should be our first hint that Thames’ batting average is unnaturally depressed by poor batted-ball luck. After all, 38% hard contact, though nowhere near the near-50% mark that carried Thames through his eye-popping first month, is still a notably above-average mark.

Pitchers have adjusted to Thames, though, as the plate discipline metrics such as reach rate (O-swing%), swinging strike rate (SwStr%) and walk rate (BB%) over the course of June don’t look nearly as pristine as they did during his strong performance to open the season:

 
It is perhaps the case that those who sold on Thames as an utterly elite asset after that first month chose wisely. Thames is probably not a top-of-the-draft hitter after all, but he still has a strong chance to bang out around 25 homers rest of season. Considering the batted-ball funk and continued quality contact, now might be a good time to see if the Thames’ owner in your league thinks he’s just another disposable slugger.

Trevor Story (SS – COL)
One former breakout slugger who has been truly disposable this season is Colorado’s Trevor Story, whose early-season funk I wrote off as small-sample noise way back in April. Since then, the 24-year-old infielder prolonged his struggles to the tune of a .223 BA and a meager .720 OPS on the season.

But do keep in mind that to get to .223, Story had to pull himself out of quite a nasty hole –he was hitting .167 at the end of April, and he’s quietly tallied .270 since returning from injury in late May. We’re still looking at a non-ideal 31% strikeout rate over that recent span. One major plus, though, is that Story seems to have corrected the problematic pop-up rate that plagued him through the early part of the season, with his infield-fly mark since late May standing under 7% compared to the near-23% mark from the season’s first month.

With a burgeoning 32% hard-hit rate and 20% line drive rate, Story appears poised for some summertime slugging. See if the Story owner in your league is asleep at the wheel.

Miguel Sano (3B/OF/DH – MIN)
It was a far gone conclusion that Miguel Sano wouldn’t sustain the .425 ISO and 0% soft-contact rate that I marveled at in early April, but the extent to which Sano has kept his head above water in the batting average department has certainly been a pleasant surprise. I wouldn’t expect that trend to hold, though.

Despite his 34.5% strikeout rate, Sano’s BA stands at a strong .282, a figure that is buoyed by the outrageous .316 BA/1.127 OPS stretch that we saw from Sano in the season’s first month. Indeed, in the nearly two months since, Sano has hit .265 with an impressive but decidedly mortal .859 OPS, even while maintaining 49% hard contact and a 28.5% HR/FB.

As we suspected, Sano’s raw power and keen batting eye are a potent combination that will keep his contact quality and walk rate numbers high, but his whiff-heaviness (check out that near-17% swinging strike rate in June) caps his average quite decisively. In the past 10 seasons, only three players tallying at least a 33% strikeout rate have batted higher than .247 on the season — though, to be fair, Sano himself is one of them, having managed a .269 BA in 2015 despite a 35.5% strikeout mark. Consider that a pretty firm ceiling, though, going forward.

Cody Bellinger (1B – LAD)
It would seem that I owe Cody Bellinger truthers a major mea culpa after my pessimistic rest-of-season assessment on the breakout slugger following his promotion and subsequent power binge last month. Indeed, over the past 30 days, the young Dodger has been every bit the stud producer, banking a 1.124 OPS and 51 combined runs and RBIs across 120 PAs. Oh, and he also happens to be the youngest player to reach 21 career homers. Suffice it to say; I was pretty wrong.

I would still prepare for a cold spell, though, as Bellinger’s June is not without its contact-rate warts, with the 21-year-old managing a below-average 79% contact rate in the zone and a notably outsized 12% swinging strike rate. It’s hard to scoff at the youngster’s 57% hard-hit rate on the month, though it’s just as easy to cry foul on his near-40% HR/FB.

As always, the question of imminent regression carries with it the secondary concern: regression to what, exactly? Well, FantasyPros has Bellinger projected to carry a .927 OPS the rest of the way, with 18 bombs and 75 total runs and RBIs. Needless to say, this production represents a marked downturn on his current historic production pace, as impressive as it may be.

More notable, though, is the fact that these numbers have Bellinger as a “mere” top-eight first baseman going forward, outside of the top 30 hitters overall. That Bellinger will not maintain a historic power pace is not news; that his baseline expectations peg him as a sub-elite producer rest of season should lend some pause.

Jose Ramirez (2B/3B/OF – CLE)
If I’m going to take some deserving lumps regarding my early-season Bellinger pessimism, I should enjoy a victory lap for preaching patience during Jose Ramirez’s late-spring slump. The Cleveland utility man’s sub-par May (.258 BA, .728 OPS) now seems a distant memory amid a positively torrid June, with Ramirez boasting a tremendous .376 BA and measly 9% strikeout rate over 98 PAs this month.

Most notable are Ramirez’s ace power numbers — he has 18 extra-base hits on the month, good for a 1.118 OPS over that span. The binge is no fluke, with Ramirez flashing 40% hard-hit and 20% liners. Even Ramirez’s near-17% HR/FB doesn’t seem incredibly fluky.

For one thing, he’s made a concerted effort to loft the ball, with his season-long grounder rates dropping precipitously over each of the past two seasons. Sure, Ramirez is giving back some contact consistency (12.5% strikeout rates and 6% swinging strike rates are both career highs), but the sacrifice here is from elite to sub-elite contact skills–a small price to pay for a major boost in power.

This is indeed the ebb and flow of regression at work — Ramirez’s smoking hot April gave way to a more modest May, with June’s outburst helping Ramirez settle into the 10-to-12% HR/FB baseline that seems to be an acceptable expectation for him going forward. With about 20 combined homers and steals very much in play for Ramirez going forward, there’s little doubt that he’s among the cream of the 3B-eligible crop.

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Tom Whalen is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Tom, check out his archive or follow him @tomcwhalen.