As MLB prepares for Friday’s return, fantasy managers will continue to tidy their roster before play resumes. The pause gives them a chance to closely examine first-half results while unearthing second-half breakout options.
A couple of the following highlighted middle relievers quietly racked up holds. Another registered dominant ratios to little fanfare. One former setup stud finally looks healthy, and a fresh-faced rookie has the skills to orchestrate a meteoric late-season rise.
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After discussing Tommy Hunter as the Tampa Bay Rays’ best middle reliever, a returning Brad Boxberger quickly fortified his case to assume the spot.
The former closer has accumulated seven strikeouts over four hitless frames since making his season debut on June 30. If the 29-year-old regains his old form flaunted before injuries derailed his career, Tampa Bay has found an answer for the eighth inning. Or possibly the ninth.
Boxberger compiled a 2.37 ERA and 104 strikeouts in 2014, leading him to assume the closer’s role with 41 saves, but an uglier 3.71 ERA the following year. He has since logged just 28.1 major league innings, over which he has issued 22 walks.
Let’s not immediately assume Boxberger is back as an elite stopper. The 29-year-old must stay healthy and improve his command before warranting fantasy gamers’ full faith. Yet he clearly has quickly earned Tampa Bay’s trust, compiling two holds and a win by working either the seventh or eighth frame. Already a primary setup option alongside Hunter, he should be owned in all holds formats.
Although mentioned earlier in the season, Chafin’s consensus ownership rate remains a tepid 2 percent. Tyler Clippard, meanwhile, is 3 percent owned with a 5.24 ERA.
Perhaps Archie Bradley, a middle-relief stud justifiably owned in one-quarter of all formats, is hogging the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen spotlight. Chafin never held the same prospect pedigree and doesn’t fire upper-90s gas, but he has clocked a 1.80 ERA, 40 strikeouts, and a 61.4 ground-ball rate over 30 spectacular innings.
Opponents can’t touch his slider. According to Brooks Baseball, the lethal pitch has yielded a .151 average with one extra-base hit (a double) and a 45.92 whiff rate. That elite offering will keep him around in high-leverage situations.
Chafin has made a team-high 40 appearances, but the southpaw can handle anyone. Righties have a .577 OPS against the 29-year-old, who has allowed one run since June 1. Look for him to gain recognition as a top-shelf reliever who should easily exceed his first-half tally of nine holds if Arizona remains a playoff-caliber squad.
He’s a boring veteran with an uninspiring 3.31 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, but Cecil collects strikeouts and holds in bunches.
The 31-year-old lefty held more than Hodor in the weeks before the All-Star break, preserving five leads in his last six outings. He now has a dozen holds on the season, passing Trevor Rosenthal for second on the St. Louis Cardinals behind Matt Bowman.
Cecil also has 34 strikeouts in 35.1 innings, which if anything is low for someone who has punched out over a batter per frame in each of his last three seasons. His 14.1 swinging-strike rate is higher than last year’s 12.2 percentage, which procured an 11.05 K/9.
Since walking nine batters in 18 innings, he has coughed up two in the ensuing 17.1 frames. Perhaps this is merely a hot streak, but St. Louis didn’t award him a four-year, $30.5 million contract to handle menial tasks out of the bullpen. Cecil should keep pitching in meaningful spots, so consider him as a high-volume holds play with an elevated strikeout ceiling in deeper formats.
Baseball’s second-best Jose Ramirez quietly entered the All-Star break with a 2.70 ERA and 16 holds. Only five relievers (Taylor Rogers, Adam Ottavino, Andrew Miller, Will Harris, and David Phelps) protected more leads during the opening half.
In some leagues, that’s good enough to grab him. Those in shallower mixed leaguers, however, can afford to be picky with their middle relievers. A deeper dive dampens some excitement over the Atlanta Braves righty.
Ramirez has recorded 31 strikeouts to 17 walks over 36.2 innings, giving him a 9.8 K-BB percentage topped by 133 of 168 qualified relievers. Opponents are hitting .177 against him with assistance from a .211 BABIP below last year’s .279 clip.
Yet a 12.8 swinging-strike rate foreshadows more strikeouts, and he has induced line drives on just 12.1 percent of batted balls. He should serve as the setup man with Arodys Vizcaino on the disabled list. If Vizcaino remains sidelined, a Jim Johnson trade could even lead Ramirez to save opportunities.
He’s not the best choice for casual leagues, but Ramirez has the role to contribute in deep formats.
Middleton has yet to help any fantasy players with a 4.00 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and four holds. Yet the underlying metrics depict a second-half breakout candidate.
The 23-year-old righty has compiled 27 strikeouts in as many innings, but a 16.7 swinging-strike rate and 66.5 opposing contact rate lay the foundation for a top-tier power pitcher. He has generated a higher percentage of whiffs than Andrew Miller, Tommy Kahnle, and all but eight relievers with at least 20 innings pitched. Middleton teased that upside by fanning fellow rookies Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger last month.
After enduring some initial growing pains with five combined walks in his third and fourth career outings, the fiery newcomer has only issued seven walks in his next 26 outings. With a heater occasionally touching triple digits, he’s lethal when trusting his stuff.
As he told FanGraphs’ David Laurila in June, he’s not afraid of any challengers.
“I get asked by friends and family who my least favorite player to throw to is,” Middleton said. “I really don’t care. It could be David Ortiz, it could be Babe Ruth. Whoever is in the box, I’m going to go out there and give you my best stuff, and if you win, you win. I’ll tip my cap to you.”
That mentality meets the old-fashion closer archetype, but Middleton has a long way to go. Look for him to work his way into higher-leverage situations before the season ends.
Note: All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
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Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.
