The year is 2017. The date is September 21. Jason Witten is the No. 1 tight end in fantasy football and has 24 percent more fantasy points than the next closest player at his position. If he were included in the wide receivers, he would be the No. 3 receiver. You want more? J.J. Nelson is the No. 2 wide receiver, behind only 30-year-old Michael Crabtree. Oh, I should also mention that Alex Smith and Trevor Siemian are the top two quarterbacks.

Imagine reading that paragraph before the start of the season. You would be a very rich man/woman if you were able to predict even one of those things, but no one did. But that’s the beauty of the NFL. Not only can any team win in any given week (okay, maybe not the Jets), but any player can be a contributor to fantasy teams. That’s not what we’re here to say, though. No, you’re here to read what the most likely outcome is, and not just one game or player, but every one of them.

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If this is your first time reading The Primer, I want to give you an idea as to what you should expect. Knowledge, facts, stats, numbers… lots of numbers. The idea is to give you so much knowledge that you’ll feel better than ever when you hit that ‘submit lineup’ button. The Primer will be here for you every single week of the NFL season, where we’ll dive into every game, talking about every fantasy relevant player. Once done reading it each week, you should have a better idea as to how the game should go, as well as an idea as to who you should be playing in season-long and who to target in DFS. All games are in order of the time they are taking place, with the Thursday game first and Monday night game last.

*Keep in mind that the game lines and totals may change as the games approach. All of my up-to-date rankings can be found right here.

Baltimore Ravens (-4.0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (Wembley) Over/Under: 40.0

Yep, we have another London game on the slate that will be taking place at 9:30 am EST this week, so set your lineups on Saturday night if you don’t wake up that early. The London games are always interesting because we search for narratives about the teams and who it’ll affect more. Jetlag is a real thing, but they should be over there days before to eliminate this as much as possible. This game has a weird resemblance to the one the Jaguars played in Week 1 against the Texans, which obviously turned out well for them. The difference is that Joe Flacco is competent, whereas Tom Savage and Deshaun Watson were not. The big storyline, though, is that the Ravens lost LG Marshal Yanda for the season in Week 2 to a fractured ankle. This is big news, as he is a perennial Pro Bowler who clears lanes for the run-game and helps provide protection for Flacco. The Jaguars front-seven is no joke, making this an interesting game that the Jaguars could pull off.

QBs: Now missing both of his offensive guards, Flacco may under duress throughout this game, which obviously does nothing but drag down his fantasy potential. Over their last 17 games, the Jaguars have allowed just two quarterbacks to produce 20-plus fantasy points against them. Despite the high total scored against them in Week 2, they held Marcus Mariota to just 215 yards passing and one touchdown. Look for the Jaguars to try and control the ball with the run in this game, limiting the Ravens offensive plays. Flacco isn’t someone who should be started in fantasy leagues, if at all possible. Blake Bortles looked like… well, Blake Bortles in Week 2, only without Allen Robinson. He’s far off the fantasy radar and shouldn’t even be considered in 2QB leagues for this game.

RBs: Over the last two weeks, Terrance West has been out-snapped 76 to 43 to Javorius Allen, and has also been out-touched 40 to 29. The odd part is that the game-script actually better suited his perceived skill-set, so it’s possible that Allen is the running back to own in this backfield. I’d say Allen’s definitely the running back to own this week, as the Jaguars have held opposing running backs to just 463 yards on 135 carries (3.43 YPC) over their last seven games, and the loss of Yanda looms large. If the running backs are going to do anything this week, it’ll likely be through the air and Allen has already seen seven targets in the passing game while West has just three. Consider Allen a solid RB3 this week, especially in PPR formats, while West is best left on fantasy benches as a touchdown-or-bust candidate. Leonard Fournette has now overcome two of the worst matchups in fantasy football and came out of them as the No. 8 running back in fantasy – he’s really good. The Ravens are another brutal matchup, but considering the game-script and how the Jaguars will play this game, he belongs in lineups as an RB2, at worst. You simply cannot bench a player with his talent level who is getting 20-plus touches per week. They may want to involve him a bit more in the passing game this week, as the Ravens have allowed over 110 receiving yards to running backs in the first two weeks. Chris Ivory is apparently his backup while T.J. Yeldon is out, but they have no value unless something happened to Fournette.

WRs: You are going to want to avoid most No. 1 wide receivers against the Jaguars, but not Jeremy Maclin. Reason being, he has played out of the slot on nearly 70 percent of his snaps, which allows him to evade A.J. Bouye and Jalen Ramsey in coverage. Maclin has now led the wide receivers in targets in back-to-back weeks, and has also led in production with a total of six catches for 87 yards and two touchdowns. The touchdowns will slow down, but the yardage and targets will increase as the matchups call for them to pass a bit more. The matchup against Aaron Colvin will be interesting, as the Jaguars figure to bring a lot of pressure to Flacco, opening things up underneath for Maclin. Consider him a solid WR3 in this matchup. Mike Wallace has seen just four targets through two games, which is half of what Breshad Perriman has seen. It seems like he’s being phased out and this is no matchup to expect either of those two to do anything anyway, so avoid them. They have combined for just three catches and 18 yards. Marqise Lee is going to see a lot of Jimmy Smith, which isn’t a matchup to target even for good wide receivers with an actual NFL quarterback. Avoid him wherever possible. Then you have Keelan Cole matching up with Brandon Carr, who already has two interceptions on the season and is allowing just a 36 percent catch rate. Allen Hurns has the best matchup on paper, but he’s impossible to trust outside of anything but a punt-play in DFS.

TEs: Some will automatically assume that Ben Watson is the Ravens pass-catching tight end, but it’s not really as clear as you might think. He has played 89 snaps, while Nick Boyle has played 87 snaps. The difference is 13 pass routes, though Watson has out-targeted him nine to two. If you’re playing one, it should be Watson. This week is a great matchup, too, as the Jaguars have struggled over their last six weeks to stop tight ends. They have allowed at least 10 PPR points to every tight end except C.J. Fiedorowicz, who left the game after playing just half of it and totaling 8.6 PPR points. If you’re looking for an off-the-wall play that nobody will expect, Watson makes sense, but keep in mind that it’s more of a timeshare than some think. The Jaguars went this offseason without bringing in a tight end, so this is the nice part of my job where I get to move onto the next game.

Prediction: Ravens 17, Jaguars 16

Denver Broncos (-3.0) at Buffalo Bills Over/Under: 40.0

After the way the Broncos destroyed the Cowboys, you’d think the line on this game would be higher. The Bills defense just got done holding the Panthers to nine points, which came after “holding” the Jets to just 12 points in Week 1. The Bills don’t have the most talent on the defensive side of the field, making me believe it’s just a small sample size for a team that allowed 27 or more points in eight different games. On the flip side, the Broncos have now held their opponent to 23 points or less in 15 of their last 18 games. Let’s be real, the Bills aren’t going to change that. Both of these teams may be without their left tackles for this game, too, as the Broncos No. 1 pick Garrett Bolles is out for a few weeks with a leg injury and the Bills Cordy Glenn left the game in Week 2 with an ankle injury. The total on this game may come down more if/when those guys are ruled out.

QBs: Who would have thought that Trevor Siemian would have started the season by throwing six touchdowns against the Chargers and Cowboys? It seems like a distant memory that he was considered the underdog in the quarterback competition with Paxton Lynch during training camp. With that being said, approach with caution. There were just two games in all of 2016 where Siemian totaled more than 17 fantasy points and his arsenal of wide receivers hasn’t changed. The offensive line was upgraded which definitely helps, but don’t bank on him as a top-10 quarterback just yet. The Bills have played over their heads in Weeks 1 and 2, similar to Siemian, so maybe they meet in the middle during this matchup. Still, it’s impossible not to consider Siemian in this matchup as a solid QB2 who has a decent floor. Losing his left tackle is cause for concern, enough to knock him out of the QB1 conversation. Tyrod Taylor played so poorly in Week 2 that head coach Sean McDermott had to answer questions on whether or not he was still the starter. Going against the Broncos isn’t going to help bring those questions to an end, as they have held 16 of the last 18 quarterbacks they’ve played to 6.8 or less yards per attempt. Taylor will have to use his legs quite a bit, especially if Glenn misses this game. Look at Taylor who is a middling QB2 because of his legs, as it wouldn’t shock me if he totaled 40-plus rushing yards in this matchup.

RBs: It seems that C.J. Anderson is pretty good at football, eh? The Broncos said all offseason that they wanted to run the ball and built the offensive line to do so. Anderson leads the NFL in carries after two weeks, which bodes well for his longevity atop the fantasy leaderboards. The only issue is that the Bills have been lights out against the run thus far this season, holding the combination of Jonathan Stewart/Christian McCaffrey/Bilal Powell/Matt Forte to just 88 yards on 36 carries (2.44 YPC) the first two weeks under McDermott. It’s a massive change for them, as they were a stomping ground for running backs last year. Still, with all the carries that Anderson has been getting, you have to trot him out as a rock-solid RB2 every week with upside for more. Jamaal Charles has played well, but it’s encouraging that Anderson has even out-targeted him in the passing game six to two. Charles is an interesting option in deep leagues this week, as the Broncos should be able to run the ball 25-plus times, which could mean 10-plus touches for him. He’s just a RB4/5, but we know he has game-breaking potential. LeSean McCoy didn’t look like his usual self last week when he totaled just nine yards on 12 carries against the Panthers. He was able to chip in with six catches for 34 yards, but he re-aggravated his wrist injury and had to leave the game in the third quarter last week. He returned, but it’s not looking good for the 29-year-old to hold up for 16 games this season. The Broncos have allowed just six running backs total 16 or more PPR points against them dating back to the start of last year, so don’t expect miracles, but any time McCoy takes the field, he’s in the RB1 conversation. Mike Tolbert should not be considered in fantasy leagues unless it’s touchdown-only, but not even in those this week.

WRs: Demaryius Thomas continues to be the most targeted wide receiver in the Broncos offense, but he’s simply not the same player he once was after the catch. He’s now scored just one touchdown over his last 11 games, while teammate Emmanuel Sanders has four touchdowns in that same timeframe. Heck, Bennie Fowler has three in that span. Thomas is just a low-upside WR2 seemingly every week and this one is no different. He and Sanders will see a mixture of E.J. Gaines and rookie Tre’Davious White in coverage, so neither has the particularly better matchup. Thomas is a safer WR2, while Sanders can be placed in lineups as a WR3. Bennie Fowler left the game with an injury last week, giving way to Cody Latimer, but neither should be considered unless it’s projected to be a high-scoring affair – this isn’t. I said last week that Zay Jones is on the field for two-wide receiver sets, which helps his outlook, as does the fact that he’s seen a team-high 10 targets through two weeks. The issue is that he and Taylor have only connected on three of them for 39 yards, while Jordan Matthews has hauled in five of his six targets for 91 yards. Matthews will see a lot of Chris Harris Jr. this week, so he’s pure bench material. Jones will see Bradley Roby about half the time, which is the best matchup among the wide receivers. Still, you can’t trust him as anything more than a WR4/5. The Bills don’t pass enough to reasonably consider three wide receivers, so Andre Holmes is out, who will see the majority of Aqib Talib anyways.

TEs: While Virgil Green was the one who hit pay dirt last week, he’s not the primary pass-catching option at tight end on the Broncos. Nope, A.J. Derby has run 12 more pass routes than him through two games, so expect the production to even out over time. Still, the tight end position is hard enough to project as is, so you don’t need to choose one from a timeshare. You’re better off avoiding it until there is a clear-cut favorite for targets. It’s really not a good matchup for tight ends anyways. Charles Clay let down fantasy owners last week by posting a line of just 3/23/0. In a game where Taylor struggled, this makes sense. The matchup with the Broncos is another good one, as it seems to be one of their only weaknesses as a defense. After witnessing Jason Witten destroy them for 10 catches, 97 yards, and a touchdown, you likely know that. Clay will never be a fool-proof plan at tight end, seeing as the Bills throw the ball fewer than 30 times per game (ranked dead-last in 2016), but the matchup is solid, so Clay can be used as a streamer and solid TE2.

Prediction: Broncos 23, Bills 17

Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5) at Chicago Bears Over/Under: 45.5

This is now the second time in as many games that the Bears are a touchdown underdog while at home, and it can be argued that it should be more now that they’re down a few starters. Not only did the Bears lose their best linebacker Jerrell Freeman for the year, but his replacement, rookie Nick Kwiatkowski, is also out for the season after he suffered a pectoral injury in Week 2. Not just that, but the Bears may be without their two best offensive linemen, as left guard Kyle Long and right guard Josh Sitton will be questionable to play in this game. The Steelers may actually get their defensive end Stephon Tuitt back for this game, someone who was originally thought to miss the season. The Bears are in for a long day at home.

QBs: There is truth to the whole Ben Roethlisberger isn’t very good on the road argument, but this is a game where he won’t need to be good. In the Bears first two games of the season, both Matt Ryan and Jameis Winston threw the ball just 30 times. Because of that, they didn’t have huge fantasy days, though Roethlisberger doesn’t necessarily need to throw a ton to produce. Consider Roethlisberger a safe QB1 in season-long, but a low-upside option in DFS, and one where I’d limit your ownership. The Bears played much better at home against fantasy quarterbacks last year. You aren’t going to start Mike Glennon in any format this week, as the Steelers have allowed just three quarterbacks to score more than 18 fantasy points in their last 18 games. He’s getting closer and closer to losing his job.

RBs: You don’t need me to tell you to start Le’Veon Bell everywhere this week, right? I mean, the guy got 31 touches last week. The Steelers talked about limiting his touches this year… haha. Of the last nine games that the Bears played, there was just one team who failed to record at least 100 rushing yards. Considering Bell accounts for 95 percent of the Steelers production at the running back position, he should be a lock for 100-plus yards and one touchdown, at minimum. He’s every bit worth his salary in DFS this week. Jordan Howard left the stadium with a sling on his arm, which is never a good sign, especially when he came into the week questionable with a shoulder injury. We haven’t even mentioned that he’s been outplayed by rookie Tarik Cohen in both the passing game and the ground game. Cohen is a bit small to carry the ball 15 times a game, but he may have to against the Steelers if Howard misses this game. Should Howard play, consider him a touchdown-dependent RB2 against the Steelers. Cohen has standalone value even if Howard does play as a low-end RB2 in standard formats and a solid RB2 in PPR leagues. He obviously becomes more attractive if Howard misses the game.

WRs: Just one week after Antonio Brown finished with five catches for 62 yards, you’ll want to bet on him destroying the Bears secondary, and specifically Marcus Cooper. Brown hasn’t gone three games without a touchdown since way back in Weeks 3 through 7 in 2015. He’s going to finish as a WR1 in this matchup. Martavis Bryant took advantage of Brown’s matchup with Xavier Rhodes last week, by toasting Trae Waynes and Terence Newman for 91 yards and a touchdown. He’ll continue to get better as Roethlisberger and him get back into the swing of things, but this is a week where they really won’t need him much. He’ll always have one-play-changes-everything potential, but consider him a high-end WR3 this week rather than the WR2 he was last week simply because of the blowout risk. Eli Rogers and JuJu Smith-Schuster shouldn’t be considered in this matchup, as I’d be shocked if they combine for more than five targets. The Bears wide receiving corps is something from a Week 4 preseason game, as Josh Bellamy and Deonte Thompson are playing a majority of the snaps. Kendall Wright is the only one of the bunch who is somewhat trustworthy, as he saw 10 targets in the first game with Kevin White out. There may be some garbage time for the Bears receivers, which becomes extremely unpredictable in fantasy, but Wright should not be relied on as anything more than a WR4, while Bellamy and Thompson are just emergency fill-ins for deep leagues. The Steelers have allowed just 10 touchdowns to wide receivers since the start of 2016, tied for the lowest in the NFL with the Broncos.

TEs: We are now three weeks out from the Steelers trade for Vance McDonald, and to my surprise, he was inactive for their Week 2 game against the Vikings. Until he plays meaningful snaps, it’s Jesse James as the lead tight end. In this game against the Bears, he should be left on waiver wires. Not only will they not be passing a whole lot this game, but the Bears have been solid at defending tight ends under John Fox, allowing just three tight ends to top 50 yards last year. Zach Miller is an interesting option, however, as the Steelers aren’t a bad matchup to begin with, and the Bears are running out of options to throw to. Miller is tied with Rob Gronkowski for the fifth-most targets among tight ends, which means production is coming. Don’t forget that Miller was the No. 11 tight end in points per game before getting hurt last year. Consider him a solid high-end TE2 this week who is definitely worth streaming consideration. Dion Sims is being leaned on as the blocking option for a majority of the time.

Prediction: Steelers 27, Bears 17