When it comes to trades, I tend to be on the cautious side. While some people love nothing more than to wheel and deal, I only make moves when I feel almost certain that they will improve my team.

Most of the players on my team are there because I was high on them coming into the season, so I’m not likely to give up on them after a week or two. As a result, I make more trades later in the season, as it becomes more evident that I have a need at a particular position or in a specific roto category.

When I do make early season trades, though, it tends to be because I’ve found a trade partner who is overrating a veteran player who is off to a fast start or underrating one that is off to a slow start. Yes, there will be a few players each year who produce numbers that look drastically different than the rest of their careers, but every player will have slumps and hot streaks during the season — some just happen to occur in April, when they stand out far more. This is a sport where most players’ performances ultimately regress to their career norms.

At this stage of the season, I’m not adjusting my rankings for established veterans unless there is a glaring reason to alter my expectations for them — such as an injury, playing time concerns, or a new lineup spot. But if someone else in my league gets caught up in 10 days’ worth of stats, I’m ready to pounce — particularly when the advanced indicators suggest that the performance to date (good or bad) is entirely unsustainable.

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Players to Buy

Jose Ramirez (2B/3B – CLE)
Ramirez is a strong contender for the unluckiest player in baseball through the season’s first week-plus. Through his first 39 plate appearances, Ramirez has walked six times and struck out twice, but he’s sporting a comically low .033 BABIP. His low hard contact rate and high fly ball percentage explain some of the BABIP issues, but there’s no reason to believe he’s a different hitter than he was the last two seasons. Ramirez was a second or third round pick in most fantasy leagues, so don’t insult his owner with a lowball offer, but if you can get him for someone like Anthony Rendon and a throw-in, I’d do it.

Khris Davis (OF – OAK)
Davis’s strikeout rate is down, and his hard contact rate is up, yet he has just one home run and a .179 batting average to show for it in the early going. He’s never be mistaken for a batting champion, but Davis has hit between .244 and .247 for four straight seasons, and if his improved contact continues, he should hit even a little better than that from here on out. He’s also the only player in baseball that hit over 40 home runs in both 2016 and 2017, so you know the power is going to be there. Davis was already a little under-appreciated due to his lowish batting average, team, and ballpark, so perhaps you can acquire him for a sell-high candidate like Adam Eaton.

Tim Anderson (SS – CWS)
This one is a buy-high, as Anderson is off to a fantastic start. Yes, he’s striking out in over 30 percent of his plate appearances, which suggests that his .276 batting average is destined to drop.

So why is Anderson a buy? He’s a legitimate threat to lead the league in stolen bases, that’s why. Anderson stole nine bases last September, as I mentioned in the shortstop primer back in March, and now he’s picked up right where he left off with five steals in his first eight games of 2018.

Better yet, he’s already drawn four walks in 33 plate appearances, after walking just 13 times in 606 plate appearances last year. Anderson has even belted three home runs already, thanks in part to a massive spike in both his hard contact rate and fly ball rate. It will be worth watching his batted ball profile closely to see if that continues, but whether Anderson is truly developing more home run power or not, he looks set to steal bases early and often. That makes him worth acquiring for a bigger name shortstop like Trevor Story, especially in roto and head-to-head categories leagues.

Players to Sell

Miguel Sano (1B/3B – MIN)
Sano is a player whose draft stock fell in February and March due to some negative reports about his weight and a possible suspension for assault, but if he was underrated on draft day, he isn’t any longer. As it turns out, Sano wasn’t suspended, and he’s been raking to begin the season with a .296 average and three home runs through his first seven games.

His power was never in doubt, but there were legitimate questions about his ability to make consistent enough contact to hit for a decent average — and that hasn’t changed despite his hot start. Sano is striking out in a whopping 43.8 percent of his plate appearances, but his batting average is being inflated by an enormous .500 BABIP and 42.9 percent HR/FB rate. He makes a lot of hard contact, so his BABIP tends to be above league average, but he’s still due for quite a bit of batting average regression.

And while he is a good bet to top 30 home runs in a full season, he’s never played more than 116 games and is a total non-factor in stolen bases. I’d look to deal him for a slow-starting 3B like Alex Bregman, who can provide much more well-rounded five-category production.

Paul DeJong (2B/SS – STL)
DeJong took the league by storm with a .285 average and 25 home runs in only 417 at-bats in 2017, but most fantasy owners took a reasonably cautious approach with him this spring, judging by his 147.7 average draft position. Now that he’s hit .303 with three homers through his first nine games of 2018, some people may finally be starting to believe in him. I wouldn’t recommend being one of those people.

While Sano is third in the league in strikeout rate, DeJong is just behind him at 42.9 percent. And unlike Sano, DeJong is allergic to taking walks — something that mainly hurts his value in points leagues but is also a concern for his run production numbers in all formats. DeJong’s unsustainable .467 BABIP and 37.5 HR/FB ratio are carrying his fantasy value so far. I’d look to swap him for someone like Eduardo Nunez before those numbers regress.

Michael Fulmer (SP – DET)
Fulmer is a solid mid-rotation starter in real baseball, but don’t let his shiny 0.68 ERA fool you — he isn’t an emerging ace in fantasy leagues. Fulmer struck out just 6.23 batters per nine innings in 2017, and this year it’s been even worse, as he has seven strikeouts (with five walks) through his first 13 1/3 innings of 2018. Fulmer’s ability to limit hard contact and home runs have allowed him to outperform his peripherals over the last two seasons, so he may well again be able to produce a low enough ERA and WHIP to be worth owning as a back-end starter in 12-team mixed leagues.

But his numbers so far are mostly a product of a 93.8 percent strand rate and zero home runs allowed, which obviously won’t continue. Unless he shows a new ability to strike more batters out, Fulmer’s upside is severely capped, particularly on a Tigers team that doesn’t project to provide him with too many wins. In standard roto leagues, I’d gladly part with him to take a chance on a pitcher with more upside like Luis Castillo or even Blake Snell.

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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.