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Hitters to Target in Deep Leagues (Fantasy Baseball)

Hitters to Target in Deep Leagues (Fantasy Baseball)

No matter the week and the highlighted waiver-wire pickups, second chances always serves as a primary takeaway. Players rarely develop on an easy-to-track linear level, and first showings often underwhelm.

Four of the following five hitters were once considered top prospects as recently as this spring. Yet poor debuts drained the hype, leaving them all with a consensus ownership rate below 10 percent, as of Sunday night. Whether working their way back from an injury or simply learning on the job, they look poised to capitalize on this second opportunity. Fantasy managers should set aside resentment associated from initial disappointment and give them another chance in deep leagues.

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Tom Murphy (C – COL): 2 Percent Owned
Now Tom Murphy gets a chance, grumbled the grumpy dynasty investor who cut the Colorado catcher before 2018. After cranking five homers in 2016’s 21-game fling, a fractured forearm prevented him from carrying that momentum into the following season. He toiled through Triple-A, posting a .322 wOBA in 38 games, and collected just one hit in 26 plate appearances with the Rockies.

Crushing 16 homers in 49 Triple-A games emphatically earned the 27-year-old another chance. Although yet to enjoy Coors Field, Murphy has scattered six hits in five road starts since his promotion. Rostered for his glove, Tony Wolters wilted his way out of a starting job with a 32 wRC+. Signed for his bat, Chris Iannetta has not done enough (.233/.339/.397) to fend off the younger slugger. Murphy garners a look in any two-catcher league, and one-catcher gamers holding the fort down with an inoffensive stopgap (i.e. Tucker Barnhart, James McCann, or even Jonathan Lucroy) should upgrade to someone who can feasibly infiltrate the position’s top 10.

Alen Hanson (2B/OF – SF): 9 Percent Owned
I thought I had missed the chance to circle back to Alen Hanson, but he narrowly makes the cut with a 9-percent ownership rate. Although red hot before landing on the disabled list with a hamstring strain, he happened to return right after Joe Panik reclaimed second base. Besides, he only logged 14 games before getting hurt, so some managers might not have initially taken to someone whose stock had precipitously tumbled over the last few years.

Yet another door has opened for Hanson. Evan Longoria will miss six-to-eight weeks after undergoing surgery on his broken left hand, and the former Pirates farmhand has started the last four days at the hot corner. He hasn’t cooled down either, batting 10-for-34 with four doubles, a triple, and a homer since his return.

Hanson now boasts a .605 slugging percentage, so it’s easy to forget that speed was considered his meal ticket. That’s where the injury has derailed him; he has not attempted a steal since coming off the shelf. As long as he’s contributing elsewhere, investors can wait for his legs to kick back into gear. It’s hard to see him sustaining such torrid power despite a significant uptick in fly balls, but the 25-year-old is in the midst of a post-hype breakout.

Lewis Brinson (OF – MIA): 7 Percent Owned
Hey there, just your friendly neighborhood fantasy baseball analyst telling you to pick up the National League’s worst hitter. Lewis Brinson is batting a paltry .234 this season … Wait, no, that’s his wOBA. It’s actually .217. Sorry, that’s his OBP. He’s batting .176 with a strikeout-to-walk ratio (7.8) higher than any qualified pitcher besides Corey Kluber.

Most teams would have demoted the struggling outfielder by now. Whether it’s an indictment of their talent dearth or testament to their patience, the Marlins have stood by the top draw from their Christian Yelich trade. He has rewarded their loyalty by batting .277 (13-of-47) with a double, three triples, and three homers over a remarkably improved 15 June games.

Let’s not forget why he was deemed an appropriate main piece to a package for an affordable, All-Star caliber 26-year-old outfielder. Brinson, FanGraphs’s No. 13-ranked prospect entering 2018, brandished elite power and speed through the minors. He most recently batted .331 with 13 homers and 11 steals in 76 Triple-A games last season. An unrefined approach has caused massive problems in the big leagues, but he maintained a steadier 8.4 walk percentage in the farm.

Having drawn just two walks to 12 strikeouts this month, all is not resolved. He also hasn’t swiped a bag since April 13, but Brinson has teased his lofty power ceiling with a .617 June slugging percentage and 59.7 hard-hit percentage. Take a flier in deeper leagues where the waiver wire is sapped of sturdier talent.

Dominic Smith (1B – NYM): 2 Percent Owned
If the Mets were a rational organization, they would devote another disastrous season to letting Dominic Smith sink or swim (they’re the Mets, so Hanley Ramirez will probably replace the recently released Adrian Gonzalez in a week). At least he’s here now.

To be fair, the first baseman did not force their hand with a .260/.343/.370 Triple-A slash line, a far cry from last year’s .330/.386/.519 results. But hey, it beats trotting out a 36-year-old with a .288 wOBA. Smith is a confounding case study, as limited power hindered his future fantasy outlook before belting nine home runs in 183 plate appearances for the Mets last year. He did so, however, with a .262 OBP.

Which guy is he? Perhaps he can settle into a boring, but useful compromise. Smith celebrated his return (and 23rd birthday) with a double and homer on Friday night. Back from the disabled list, Wilmer Flores could box him into a platoon, so save him for truly deep leagues where a solid youngster’s potential outshines the available veteran placeholders.

Ehire Adrianza (3B/SS/OF – MIN): 2 Percent Owned
Who predicted Ehire Adrianza possessing a higher wOBA than Brian Dozier in mid-June? That stat says more about the star second baseman, but Jorge Polanco‘s replacement has held his own at shortstop. He’s especially dazzling in June, going 13-for-44 with five walks and a .605 slugging percentage. After Minnesota surprisingly demoted Miguel Sano to Single-A, Eduardo Escobar can leave shortstop to Adrianza by handling third base.

A .299 xwOBA, as of Sunday, validates skepticism of this hot hand cooling during the summer. Yet he also has risen his fly-ball rate each month this season and stolen 11 bases in 12 tries since the start of 2017. From a short-term lens, the Twins are scheduled to face a lefty in four of their six games this week. The 28-year-old righty has reached base 22 times in 62 plate appearances against southpaws, so there’s likely a bit more value to squeeze out of Adrianza.

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Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.

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