Welcome to the All-Star break, dear readers. The ASB offers us a brief respite from the day-in, day-out grind that is the (fantasy) baseball season. Consider it a mid-marathon bathroom break where everyone is left to stare at their lot and wonder how they can improve. We’re not far off from the real Trade Deadline and only one-third of the season remaining, so be honest with yourself about needs and surpluses to work with.
Ownership levels are taken from Yahoo leagues and, along with the stats, are accurate through July 16.
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Priority Pickups – <30% Owned
Vince Velasquez (PHI – SP): 30% owned
I hope everyone listened last week and got to enjoy Velasquez’s six shutout innings against the Mets! He’s now given up just 13 total hits over his last five starts (27 IP) and it seems that taking a liner off his pitching arm didn’t ruin his hot streak. That 10-earned blowup against the Brewers on June 8 was terrible and there’s no burying that, but he still has an enticing 3.78 FIP, 3.81 xFIP and 3.65 SIERA underneath the hood. Trust in the weak division and hopefully, he can stay healthy in the second half.
Kole Calhoun (LAA – OF): 12% owned
Calhoun was sidelined with a right oblique strain for three weeks in June, but it appears the time off did him well. He reportedly “tinkered” with his swing after delivering a dreadful .145/.195/.179 slash through May 31, and has put up a strong .274/.319/.607 slash in 94 plate appearances since then. Furthermore, the first half of July has seen him pop off with a .298/.327/.745 line thanks to six homers and 22 R+RBI in just 13 games. Confidence is a helluva drug, especially after he started so cold, so I’d speculate on his turnaround continuing through the summer in 12-teamers.
A.J. Minter (ATL – RP): 24% owned
Dan Winkler (ATL – RP): 15% owned
Arodys Vizcaino has run into renewed trouble with his shoulder, going to the DL with inflammation and causing Braves manager Brian Snitker to state his concerns about the injury. Minter has made 12 relief appearances over the last month and 11 of them have led to clean frames, so he remains the favorite for saves. The southpaw also owns a 21-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio since June began, so that’s fun. Meanwhile, Winkler has a 14-to-5 K-to-BB mark with an ugly 6.32 ERA (3.96 xFIP) in 15 2/3 IP since June began, but he remains the righty of choice in the back-end of the bullpen.
Jake Bauers (TB – 1B): 15% owned
While much of Bauers’ elevated rank over the last couple of weeks is due to counting stats, I’ll certainly raise a glass to 24 R+RBI in a two-week span. It’s come with three homers and a steal, though going 0-for-6 in Tampa Bay’s first-half finale brought his average down to .245 in that window and .252 overall. His intriguing blend of growing pop and non-zero speed from 1B gives him real 25/10 potential if viewed through a full-season lens — and that’s just at 22 years old. I’d gamble on growth against growing pains for the second half if I had a CI slot that I needed inspired play from.
Trevor Cahill (OAK – SP): 17% owned
As anticipated, Cahill’s rust-shaking return in a tough matchup against Houston didn’t go so well (3 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 3 BB, 3 K), but now he gets the All-Star break to presumably regroup with the return in his rearview mirror and see if he can’t come out firing in the second half. He still has a 3.10 ERA, 3.14 FIP, 3.15 xFIP and 3.34 SIERA through 52 1/3 total innings this year — all marks that rank within the top-25 for starters with at least 50 frames. If there’s even a 25% chance that you can find a top-25 SP off waivers, wouldn’t you roll those dice?
Victor Arano (PHI – RP): 23% owned
Arano continues to taunt Seranthony Dominguez owners with his equally-solid frames to close out Philadelphia’s games. There’s no doubting that Dominguez remains the No. 1 arm in that ‘pen, but Arano is a solid second option for skipper Gabe Kapler to turn to should he prefer Dominguez face the heart of an order in the eighth. Those in deeper waters would do well to track down Pat Neshek (5% owned), who recently returned to action and has already converted a save opportunity himself.
German Marquez (COL – SP): 14% owned
Marquez enters the break with three straight victories under his belt (and three QS), including the most impressive one being the latest effort against a powerful D-backs squad at Coors. He yielded just two runs on five hits and two walks with eight strikeouts over six strong innings. Nevermind that he himself went yard (ok, it was off Daniel Descalso) and is now hitting .324 over 35 PAs, but all of his success to date was on the road (2.62 road ERA in 55 IP, 7.31 ERA at home in 48 IP). If he can be serviceable at home and strong on the road then he’ll be worthy of a roster spot in most 12-team leagues.
Jorge Polanco (MIN – SS): 12% owned
Polanco can still be had for peanuts after hitting a homerless .264 over his first 60 PAs of 2018. The good news is that he’s improving of late, hitting .286 with three stolen bases over the last two weeks. That’s good enough to be ranked 124th in Yahoo’s traditional 5×5 format and certainly good enough to be owned in at least triple this amount of leagues. He’s got a 42.1% hard-hit rate and a 37.8% fly-ball rate in the small sample size, meaning the homers should be coming.
Ervin Santana (MIN – SP): 18% owned
Santana will get to pick on the Tigers and Royals lineups in the top-heavy AL Central very soon. The 35-year-old righty has delivered a combined 3.32 ERA over the last two seasons with a WHIP below 1.20, and while he’s missed enough time at an age where he could’ve totally lost it, I think it’s worth speculating just in case. His latest rehab start took place at Triple-A on Sunday and saw him go 5 2/3 IP, allowing three runs on four hits (two homers — one of which was to Gary Sanchez) and a walk with seven strikeouts. He’s getting swings and misses and he’s walked just two batters across his 23 innings of rehab work so far, so count me as “encouraged.”
Joe Jimenez (DET – RP): 26% owned
With Shane Greene back and healthy, Jimenez should be the clear closer for Detroit down the stretch should Greene get traded. There’s little reason for Detroit not to flip him for even just a low-level prospect that they feel they can sculpt thanks to their distant competitive window. Jimenez won’t be an RP1 or RP2 on your team, but he has a good shot at chipping in within a couple of weeks.
Deep League Targets – <10% owned
Luiz Gohara (ATL – SP/RP): 4% owned
We haven’t seen Gohara build on the potential we saw in 2017 yet, but his “break” consists of getting stretched out in Triple-A for a July 24 start against the Marlins. In two recent relief appearances, the only hit he allowed over four innings was a solo homer alongside five strikeouts. I’ll take the mini confidence boost before his next foray into the starting rotation. Let’s hope this opportunity sparks a second-half tear.
Jake Cave (MIN – OF): 2% owned
Go to BaseballSavant’s Statcast leaderboard page and sort by barrels over plate appearance percentage (all the way to the right) for those with at least 50 batted-ball events (link). You’ll see a bunch of known sluggers like J.D. Martinez and Joey Gallo, but Cave currently slots in eighth place thanks to his eight barrels across just 81 PAs. His .412 BABIP is undoubtedly a tad too high, but he’s carrying a meager 5.6% soft-contact rate around and did combine for 20 homers across 103 Triple-A games (437 PAs) last season.
Seunghwan Oh (TOR – RP): 8% owned
I doubt the recently-activated Ryan Tepera is thrust back into the closer’s role after his brief time on the DL, and Oh has looked like his old self again. Oh’s 2.82 ERA and 1.05 WHIP on the season are strong enough on their own, but the last two weeks have seen him deliver a 1.42 ERA/0.63 WHIP in high-leverage innings. Tyler Clippard can’t be trusted and Oh could hand you a few saves before Roberto Osuna returns on Aug. 5.
Adalberto Mondesi (KC – 2B/SS): 2% owned
As much as I try not to repeat players, Mondesi’s reached a new level of relevance in the last week. He’s scorched a pair of homers and swiped another bag alongside three multi-hit efforts and hits the break having gone 11-for-37 (.297) with two homers and two steals over the last two weeks. The Royals have little else to do than evaluate their youth and how they fit in moving forward. I’d expect five starts a week from Mondesi as he continues to grow into his swing with plus wheels. Speed-needy owners can also look to Houston’s Tony Kemp (1% owned) if they have more flexibility with their bench.
Wade Miley (MIL – SP): 4% owned
With Jimmy Nelson unlikely to return before September and a strong Milwaukee club needing a starter, Miley returned from his oblique injury with five innings of two-run ball. The command was very questionable, but it was his first start back! Look, no one is going to sell you Miley as a season-saver, but the Brewers boast a stellar bullpen and an above-average offense in support of their starters. Those who need to boost their wins should target situations such as this, with Jhoulys Chacin and Zach Davies as reasonable comps for relevance.
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Nick Mariano is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nick, check out his archive and follow him @NMariano53.
