I hope you stashed one starter I touted last week, because he received the call yesterday, which is a little earlier than I anticipated. He’s joined by a teammate whose season numbers are ugly but are improving and show promise. Another repeat visitor still hasn’t seen his ownership rise to where it should be, thus, he’s back. Finally, a lefty who had his start skipped last week due to some back stiffness has flown below the radar on a losing team despite some fantasy-worthy numbers the last few months.
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Michael Kopech (CHW): Yahoo! – 54%, ESPN – 27%
So much for the White Sox waiting until September to get a look at one of the prize pieces in last year’s Chris Sale blockbuster deal. Kopech’s debut was cut short by mother nature. He did pitch two innings, though, allowing three hits, zero walks, zero runs, and one hit batsmen with four strikeouts. According to ESPN’s box score, he started seven of 10 batters off with a first-pitch strike, and he induced six swinging strikes on his 52 pitches (11.5% SwStr%).
According to FanGraphs, Kopech tallied a dazzling 12.7% SwStr% in 24 starts spannings 126.1 innings at the Triple-A level this year, so it’s not shocking that he missed Minnesota’s bats at a high rate with his electric arsenal. The hit batsmen also isn’t too shocking. The hard-throwing righty plunked 13 in his 24 starts including one in each of his last two starts in the minors. He did increase his streak of starts without a walk to four. He failed to walk a batter in his last three starts in the minors spanning 20 innings. In the 22-year-old’s last seven starts totaling 44 innings, he recorded a 1.84 ERA (1.94 FIP), 0.98 WHIP, 2.3% BB%, and 33.9% K%. Kopech’s upside is immense, though, his seven-start stretch to close out his time at the Triple-A level doesn’t entirely erase his control issues. It’s possible he’ll have some messy starts if his propensity for issuing free passes resurfaces, but his ability to strike out batters in bunches will help him mitigate the damage. Furthermore, if he continues to demonstrate much improved control, his upside is legitimately that of a top-30 starting pitcher the remainder of the season. He should be universally owned.
Looking ahead, he should get the Tigers in Detroit next, Boston at home, and then Detroit for a second time, though, at home the second time. Two of those three starts are favorable matchups, but no matter the outcome at Detroit, I’d advise sitting him against the Red Sox in even the deepest of leagues.
Tyler Glasnow (TB): Yahoo! – 26%, ESPN – 21%
I’m surprised Glasnow’s ownership hasn’t trended north of 50%. His last matchup against the Red Sox in Boston was his most challenging since joining the Rays, and while he didn’t have a great day, he didn’t exactly melt and revert to the walk machine he’s been at earlier points in his young career. He walked three batters, allowed three hits, and coughed up five runs (four earned) while striking out just four.
He wasn’t a total nibbler, though. He threw a first-pitch strike to 60% of the batters he faced, and his biggest problem was Boston’s unwillingness to fish out of the strike zone (22.2% O-Swing%). He did freeze them on pitches in the zone at a great rate (57.5% Z-Swing% and the league average this year is 67.3%, per FanGraphs). There were enough positives to take away from his underwhelming start against the top MLB offense in wRC+ (113) to continue to buy into Glasnow’s positive outlook the rest of the season. If picking between rostering Kopech or Glasnow, give me Glasnow. Thus, it’s safe to say I believe Tampa Bay’s trade-deadline acquisition has top-30 starting pitcher upside going forward. He gets the Royals in Tampa Bay in his next start, and his ownership rate should spike as a stream option heading into that appearance. If he’s as good as he’s capable of being in that start, he won’t be getting cut loose by the streamers after it.
Lucas Giolito (CHW): Yahoo! – 21%, ESPN – 9%
First of all, I’d like to provide a hat tip to Al Melchior of RotoGraphs. His piece earlier this month at RotoGraphs put Giolito back on my radar when most of his surface stats and even some of his underlying stats had yet to really suggest he was even a deep-league option. You can (and should) check that piece out here.
The once highly-touted prospect hasn’t exactly been lighting the world on fire, but he’s shown promise of late. In his last eight starts spanning 48 innings, he’s recorded a 4.50 ERA (4.43 FIP, 4.25 xFIP, and 4.32 SIERA), 1.25 WHIP, 9.9% BB%, and 21.3% K%. In five of those eight starts, he held his opponent to three runs or fewer. One of his poor outings during that stretch was against the Yankees — a forgivable offense. He coughed up seven earned runs in five innings. If you do a little cherry picking and opt to remove that start from his eight-start stretch, his ERA drops to a fantasy-useful 3.56 in the other seven turns.
Two huge changes stand out when looking at Giolito’s pre-July 8 and post-July 8 pitch data. First, he’s upped his average fastball velocity from 91.9 mph to 93.0 mph. Second, he’s cut back on his heater’s usage (61.6% to 55.1%) and slider usage (16.5% to 12.5%) mostly in favor of his changeup (12.3% to 21.5%). Throwing harder and changing his pitch mix seems to be working in Giolito’s favor. It would be unwise to completely forgive him for his early-season struggles, but with the two huge changes in place, there is something tangible to point to for his turnaround. Like Kopech, it appears he’ll draw the Tigers next in Detroit before facing the Red Sox and Tigers at home. Giolito’s worthy of starting in both of his turns against the Tigers, but he’s best kept on the bench (or cut back to the wire) for his start against Boston.
Mike Minor (TEX): Yahoo! – 12%, ESPN – 10%
Minor missed his last start on Friday when he was scratched due to back stiffness. He hasn’t been placed on the disabled list, though, and barring a setback, he’ll get the ball today. I’ve been as guilty as others of sleeping on him this year, and his ownership rate is too low given his work dating back to early June.
In 11 starts dating back to June 9, he’s pitched 63.2 innings to the tune of a 3.53 ERA (4.10 FIP, 4.46 xFIP, and 4.38 SIERA), 0.99 WHIP, 5.2% BB%, 19.3% K%, 36.2% O-Swing%, and 9.8% SwStr%. Yes, he’s been rather lucky. However, he’s also been pretty good and avoided self-inflicted damage via free passes. His extremely hitter-friendly home park makes him a risky option in his home turns — despite his unexpected home/road splits (3.33 ERA at home and 6.48 on the road). The A’s are a tough draw for his start today, and I’d advise sitting him for it. However, he projects to draw the Dodgers and Angels at home in his next two starts after that, and they rank tied for 20th and 25th, respectively, in wRC+ against southpaws this year at 91 and 86. Those look like viable spots to start him in deeper leagues if he doesn’t suffer a setback with his back when he toes the slab today.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
