Among a loaded field of fantasy baseball gurus, I received an opportunity to test my abilities against the best in The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational (TGFBI). Created last year by Justin Mason, TGFBI is like baseball’s version of football’s popular Scott Fish Bowl. Industry members compete in multiple (and free) 15-team leagues with pride and an overall title on the line. During last year’s unveiling, I finished a respectable fourth in my league and 30th overall out of 195 teams. Not bad for my first true “experts” league.
The competition has expanded to 21 leagues (315 managers) this season and shifted to NFBC, which eliminates trading and forces everyone to start two catchers. The new hosts also determined each league’s draft order using a Kentucky Derby System (KDS) where each team selects an order of pick preference, and a random drawing determines who gets first dibs over those choices. I received the 12th pick with the last preference, but I actually placed that spot fairly high on my KDS in hopes of getting two studs.
Here’s a pick-by-pick rundown of my squad. All the TGFBI league participants and draft boards are available here.
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1.12: Chris Sale (SP – BOS)
Upon drawing the 12th slot, I decided to target an ace unless a stud hitter like Nolan Arenado or J.D. Martinez inexplicably fell. I knew I’d have no chance of snagging Sale or Jacob deGrom in the second round, and I feared coming back to the third and seeing Patrick Corbin and James Paxton as the best starters available. That’s precisely what happened, so I’m glad I went against my norm and grabbed Sale to start.
2.19: Freddie Freeman (1B – ATL)
To my chagrin, Paul Goldschmidt went with the previous pick. It appears most other touts would have grabbed Aaron Judge, but I was too enamored by Freeman’s stellar plate approach and MLB-best 32.3% line-drive rate. Formerly viewed as an injury risk, he played a full 162 games last season and quietly stole 10 bases. He’s a high-floor anchor who could tap into an MVP ceiling by repairing his declining home-run tallies (34, 28, and 23). Maybe this was a case of drafting not to lose in the early rounds.
3.42: Anthony Rendon (3B – WAS)
Speaking of refined NL East hitters with MVP upside. Like Freeman, Rendon has topped a .300 average and .500 slugging % in each of the last two seasons. As I explored in a profile of the third baseman, he raked (.311/.376/.550, 23 homers) when returning from an early oblique injury and flashed additional power potential with a .566 xSLG. I would have grabbed Starling Marte if he fell another two picks, but Rendon was my target for this spot heading into the draft.
4.49: Cody Bellinger (1B/OF – LAD)
Freeman and Rendon deliver a solid foundation, but I needed to pair them with elite power and/or speed. That made Bellinger the perfect complement beyond his ADP in the fourth. His batting-average floor isn’t as dire after improving his contact and strikeout marks last season, so I’ll gladly stomach another .260 if he jumps back to 30-35 homers with double-digit swipes. He flashed the same Statcast sprint seed (28.9 feet per second) as Javier Baez and Greg Allen, so maybe we haven’t even seen his best on the basepaths.
5.72: Daniel Murphy (2B – COL)
I reluctantly passed on Nelson Cruz, whose power probably would have fit my team better. On a gut call, I grabbed Murphy, who heads to Coors Field after hitting .325/.374/.539 over the last three seasons. Take away a sluggish return from a knee injury, and he looked back to normal (.315/.346/.498) after the All-Star break. Drafting another .300 hitter gave me a ton of flexibility to gamble on upside hitters with contact limitations in later rounds.
6.79: Zack Wheeler (SP – NYM)
Knowing I soon wanted a second starter, I was prepared to pounce on Stephen Strasburg at pick 72. Alas, his slide stopped a pick before mine. That led me back to my original plan of pairing Sale with Wheeler, the 26th starter off the board. No qualified starter generated a lower hard-hit rate than the Mets righty, whose four-seamer yielded a .285 wOBA alongside a strong slider and curveball that each allowed a .247 wOBA. There’s considerable health risk from the former Tommy John recipient, but he looked every bit as good as deGrom when boasting a 1.68 ERA and 2.53 FIP after the All-Star break.
7.102: Felipe Vazquez (RP – PIT)
Not fixated on any available starter, I decided to secure a stable closer. Finding cheap saves, after all, is far more difficult in a 15-team league with sharp competition. My favorite target in this range, Vazquez has posted 88 and 89 strikeouts with a 2.47 and 2.43 FIP in 2017 and 2018, respectively. As Pittsburgh’s clear closer after locking down 37 saves last season, he’s a relatively safe pick at a notoriously volatile position.
8.109: Wil Myers (3B/OF – SD)
Here’s one of many picks predicated on power and/or speed. Although he’s a flawed real-life hitter whose fantasy value takes a hit in OBP, OPS, or points formats, Myers is still a vital contributor in five-by-five roto. Before collecting 11 homers and 13 steals in 83 games last season, he garnered a combined 58 homers and 48 steals in 2016 and 2017. Mike Trout, Goldschmidt, and Mookie Betts were the only 50/40 players in those two campaigns. I’m worried far more about Myers’ health than his career .253 batting average.
9.132: Masahiro Tanaka (SP – NYY)
The long balls make him erratic on a game-by-game basis, but Tanaka possesses elite skills for my staff’s third starter. He shaved a run off of his ERA (3.75) in 2018 while wielding a 1.13 WHIP, 19.5 K-BB%, and 14.1% swinging-strike rate. The 30-year-old righty made a fine consolation prize after missing Wilson Ramos by one pick.
10.139: Ender Inciarte (OF – ATL)
A difficult decision between Inciarte and Amed Rosario, I went with the former since he has a better chance of logging reps in the leadoff role. I don’t know what to make of a bizarre season in which Inciarte — who grabbed 13 of 28 steals by the end of April — saw his average plummet to .265 without stark contact drops. My main goal is to get 25 steals, but repairing his average atop Atlanta’s top-heavy lineup would make him a coup in the 10th.
11.162: Yoan Moncada (2B – CHW)
I don’t often target Moncada, and Rosario surprisingly lasted 23 more picks. Yet I wanted more power after picking Inciarte, and Moncada’s upside felt like a perfect fit for this squad at a fair price. Aside from Myers, I played it safe and built a strong average foundation with most of my offensive picks. That gave me the confidence to take a 23-year-old — once considered baseball’s premier prospect — with a high walk rate (10.3%) alongside power and speed upside. He also led MLB with 217 strikeouts, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see Moncada make enough progress to break out, a la Javier Baez and Trevor Story last season.
12.169: Brandon Nimmo (OF – NYM)
Rosario finally went at pick 168, so I satiated my Mets fandom by grabbing his teammate. Another immense average liability, Nimmo should bring last season’s .404 OBP atop a lineup now bolstered by Ramos, Robinson Cano, Jed Lowrie, and hopefully Peter Alonso by the summer. His strikeout rate dropped to 18.9% over the final two months, which is huge because even a passable average would look great alongside 90 runs, 15-20 homers, and 10 steals. Plus, his unrelenting energy and permanent smile will lift my spirits if my team stinks.
13.192: Ross Stripling (SP/RP – LAD)
I expected someone to jump on Stripling earlier with Clayton Kershaw’s spring setbacks inciting panic (interestingly enough, Kershaw went at pick 28 after news of his shoulder soreness). Although plenty of risk still remains, I grabbed Stripling ahead of Joe Musgrove in hopes of seeing a semblance of the ace who posted a 2.08 ERA and 7.71 K/BB rate in the first half. I just realized that I may have subconsciously targeted all of my best FAAB finds from last year’s TGFBI foray, as I plucked Wheeler, Nimmo, Stripling, and Wheeler off waivers.
14.199: Justin Smoak (1B – TOR)
Despite concerns of going overboard on low-average bats, I wanted some plus power to stay competitive in home runs. With Padres outfielders Hunter Renfroe and Franmil Reyes off the board early, I jumped Smoak’s 222 TGFBI ADP to get a slugger who clobbered 63 homers in the past two seasons.
15.222: Andrelton Simmons (SS – LAA)
To balance out all of these strikeout sieves, I went with someone who procured baseball’s lowest K rate (7.3%) in 2018. Simmons gives me a high average floor with double-digit homers and steals (but not much more). I was also eyeing Jorge Polanco and Ketel Marte, who respectively went at 201 and 213. Simmons does the trick as a cheap shortstop.
16.229: Tyler Skaggs (SP – LAA)
I was all set to take Musgrove, but Tim McCullough grabbed him right before me. Oh well. I’m also fond of Skaggs, who was in the midst of a breakout before getting clobbered and sidelined with an adductor strain. He had a 2.62 ERA prior to the Rays ransacking him for 10 runs on July 31, and he returned from a 10-day absence to yield seven more runs to the A’s. I’ll take the chance on an if-healthy ace as my fifth starter, but I’m going to need some stable innings to round out this volatile staff.
17.252: Francisco Cervelli (C – PIT)
I wanted a second closer at this spot, but all four targets (Arodys Vizcaino, Pedro Strop, Alex Colome, and Trevor May) went earlier in the round. I also would have reluctantly taken Jon Lester as a needed workhorse if he didn’t go at 249. Once I finished yelling at my laptop, I decided to plug my nose and take my first catcher. Maybe this was a reach, but Cervelli’s .355 wOBA makes him my favorite target in this range of bleak options.
18.259: Drew Steckenrider (RP – MIA)
Still shaken by Round 17, I took the next best reliever on my board. Perhaps I shouldn’t have, as Steckenrider may at best handle a timeshare on a historically bad team. Sergio Romo also has the closer experience to take the job altogether. All of the bottom-tier closers went earlier than I anticipated, and I wasn’t going to stash Brandon Morrow in a league with no IL slots.
19.282: Zack Godley (SP – ARI)
Godley tossed 178.1 innings last year, which makes him a workhorse compared to the rest of my staff. One of my favorite 2018 targets, he burned me with a 4.74 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. My expectations are far lower this time around, but the skills didn’t vanish either. He still tallied 185 strikeouts with a 48.4% ground-ball rate and 3.82 FIP during the lost year, so there’s enough intrigue left to roll the dice. I can at least start him at Chase Field, where he posted a 3.92 ERA and 26.7% K rate with the help of the humidor last season.
20.289: Adam Frazier (2B/OF – PIT)
Recently enshrined into my All-Boring Team beside Simmons, Frazier broke out to little fanfare late last season. He’s slated to start at second base and leadoff for the Pirates, giving me yet another run-scoring asset. The 27-year-old will open the season as my fifth outfielder, but it’s nice to have middle infield as a fallback plan for Moncada.
21.312: Ryan Zimmerman (1B – WAS)
I deliberated between Frazier and Zimmerman, so I was relieved to see the latter make it back to me. He finished fourth in barrels per plate appearance among hitters with 150 plate appearances last season and excelled (.295/.374/.538) when healthy after the All-Star break. He’s admittedly not a great fit for a 15-team league with no IL spots, which is why I was willing to risk losing him for Frazier. The upside, however, is far greater if he could just manage 125 games.
22.319: Omar Narvaez (C – SEA)
I didn’t want to scrape the bottom of the barrel for a second catcher, so I bypassed some intriguing alternatives (Ian Happ, Joe Jimenez, Jay Bruce) for Narvaez. While last year’s nine homers were seven more than his previous high at any level, he has batted .274 with a 12.3% walk rate in 734 career Major League plate appearances. If he’s merely a passable big league starter who doesn’t actively hurt me anywhere, so be it.
23.342: Jeimer Candelario (3B – DET)
Candelario was batting .272/.359/.497 prior to a wrist injury that sidelined him on May 13. Although he had plenty of time to rediscover his footing after an 11-game absence, he ended 2018 with a putrid .224/.317/.393 slash line. Strikeouts were never a major problem during his minor league career (17.3%), so I’m not ready to write him off as an average liability after possibly playing below 100 percent. At the very least, the Tigers should keep trotting him out every day.
24.349: Sonny Gray (SP – CIN)
Elbow stiffness that delayed Gray’s spring debut likely diminished his stock. I pounced at the chance to receive a sizable discount on his 272 NFBC ADP in hopes of getting the hurler who notched a 3.55 ERA and 22.6 K% in 2017. Shortly after I made the selection, The Athletic’s Eno Sarris published a widely circulating piece (subscription required) where Gray said the Yankees insisted on him deploying a slider that he doesn’t feel comfortable throwing for strikes. As others have pointed out, it was actually his best pitch in terms of contact (62.9%) and swinging-strike (18.2%) last season. Still, he’s also working on improving his four-seamer’s spin efficiency and throwing more curveballs under pitching coach Derek Johnson, who worked with the righty at Vanderbilt. Here’s to Gray (3.17 ERA in 71 IP) rounding out my rotation.
25.372: Mark Melancon (RP – SF)
Per Kerry Crowley of The Mercury News, Melancon has a “serious chance of earning the closer job.” After watching Romo, Brad Boxberger, and Kelvin Herrera all get taken, I couldn’t ask for much more from a speculative late flier. Melancon will earn $19 million in each of the next two years, so the Giants may want to make the most of the poor signing. Perhaps they also prefer southpaw Will Smith in a looser high-leverage role. I’m not overly enthused about Melancon, but the owner of a career 2.76 ERA could feasibly turn into a cheap saves source.
26.379: Trevor Richards (SP – MIA)
Let’s have some fun with an upside bench pick. Although he has little else going for him, Richards sports a stellar changeup that yielded a .227 wOBA with a 24.2% swinging-strike rate. The elite offering helped him tally 130 strikeouts in 126.1 MLB frames, so I’ll gamble on him making something work with the rest of his lacking repertoire. He’s working on a cutter along with a curveball to replace an ineffective slider.
27.402: Domingo German (SP – NYY)
I picked Richards after Luis Severino left a spring start with inflammation in his right shoulder. I assumed I was forgoing my only chance to snag German, but the Bronx Bombers’ possible replacement went untouched before my next turn. Despite getting gashed to a 5.57 ERA in 85.2 frames last season, his 102 strikeouts and 14.9% swinging-strike rate make him well worth a bench flier if the 26-year-old breaks camp in the rotation. Jonathan Loaisiga promptly went two picks later.
28.409: Dexter Fowler (OF – STL)
All set to pick Orlando Arcia or Josh Harrison, I surprised myself by veering to Fowler at the last minute. While most of my outfielders are eligible elsewhere, I had nobody with OF availability to back them up. Bad doesn’t even begin to describe Fowler’s 2018 (.180/.278/.298, -1.2 fWAR), but let’s not dismiss someone who posted a .367 and .358 wOBA in 2016 and 2017, respectively. He has openly discussed dealing with depression during the season, and the Cardinals seem committed to at least giving him the opportunity to earn a starting gig over Tyler O’Neill — who has already crushed four spring homers — and Jose Martinez. He’ll need to play regularly and bounce back early to maintain a spot on my squad.
29.432: Zack Cozart (3B – LAA)
Rewind all the way back to the golden ages of 2017, and one can faintly recall Cozart hitting .297/.385/.548 with 24 homers. That’s the clear outlier for a career .251/.304/.407 hitter who has averaged just 88.5 games played over the past four seasons. Then again, that’s why someone who recently delivered 5.0 fWAR is available in the penultimate round.
30.439: Anthony Swarzak (RP – SEA)
Maybe Swarzak returns to 2017 form (2.33 ERA, 91 K in 77.1 IP) and snags some saves for Seattle. He’ll only have a couple of weeks to show signs of life after getting clobbered for 18 runs in 26.1 disastrous frames for the Mets last year. Surely I should also receive some kind of extra credit for drafting eight players with a “Z” in his name.
Final Thoughts
Along with tirelessly tracking each pick from every league to craft a TGBI ADP, Smada also ran projections for all 315 teams. My squad ranked 31st overall in average rank — accounting for a few leagues with a round or two remaining — as of Friday evening. The forecasts hint some at some possible roster imbalances, as my pitching graded more favorably (14) than my offense (95).
It also appears I might have overdone it on potential run-stuffers (Inciarte, Nimmo, Frazier) at the expense of power. I’m going to need Freeman and Rendon to veer closer to 30 than 25 homers apiece, and even then I’ll have to hope for a Moncada breakout and some FAAB finds.
Despite this shortcoming, I have League 18’s second-highest grade behind Dave Poepping of Friends With Fantasy Benefits. Of course, the draft is just the beginning. Even without trades, each league’s winner must set optimal lineups and find hidden gems on the waiver wire. And as much as some experts would like to believe otherwise, we’ll all also need a sprinkle of luck.
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Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.
