Week 11 got off to a hot start on Thursday night when Myles Garrett attacked Mason Rudolph with the quarterback’s own helmet. While AFC North games can get heated (remember the Steelers/Bengals brawls from the past few years?), Thursday’s game marked a troubling escalation. The Sunday slate of games should be much calmer, and let’s take a look at who our projected ownership tool expects to be highly owned this week.
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Quarterback
Lamar Jackson has averaged more points per game than any other quarterback, so it’s no surprise that about 33% of DraftKings users should have him in their lineup. He takes on a banged-up Texans defense that’s without J.J. Watt, and they might even be relying on newly acquired corner Vernon Hargreaves to make plays. His opponent, Deshaun Watson, slots in at third on this list because the game should be a shootout. Vegas has the over/under at a whopping 51 points, so don’t be surprised if both quarterbacks have top-10 finishes. Also, expect Kyle Allen to be a popular option this week as his Panthers take on the Falcons. Sure, the Falcons should get Desmond Trufant back, but they have also allowed the fifth-most 23.7 DraftKings points per game to the position. Dak Prescott and Jameis Winston round out the list, and they’re both in a similar price range with good matchups. For Prescott, the Lions have surrendered the seventh-most points per game to quarterbacks. For Winston, he gets to take on a New Orleans team without star corner Marshon Lattimore. Both should pay off their reasonable salaries. If you’re looking for a cheap or contrarian option, consider Ryan Finley ($5,000, 0.8% projected ownership) against the Oakland Raiders, who give up the third-most points to quarterbacks.
Week 11 got off to a hot start on Thursday night when Myles Garrett attacked Mason Rudolph with the quarterback’s own helmet. While AFC North games can get heated (remember the Steelers/Bengals brawls from the past few years?), Thursday’s game marked a troubling escalation. The Sunday slate of games should be much calmer, and let’s take a look at who our projected ownership tool expects to be highly owned this week.
Create Optimal DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson has averaged more points per game than any other quarterback, so it’s no surprise that about 33% of DraftKings users should have him in their lineup. He takes on a banged-up Texans defense that’s without J.J. Watt, and they might even be relying on newly acquired corner Vernon Hargreaves to make plays. His opponent, Deshaun Watson, slots in at third on this list because the game should be a shootout. Vegas has the over/under at a whopping 51 points, so don’t be surprised if both quarterbacks have top-10 finishes. Also, expect Kyle Allen to be a popular option this week as his Panthers take on the Falcons. Sure, the Falcons should get Desmond Trufant back, but they have also allowed the fifth-most 23.7 DraftKings points per game to the position. Dak Prescott and Jameis Winston round out the list, and they’re both in a similar price range with good matchups. For Prescott, the Lions have surrendered the seventh-most points per game to quarterbacks. For Winston, he gets to take on a New Orleans team without star corner Marshon Lattimore. Both should pay off their reasonable salaries. If you’re looking for a cheap or contrarian option, consider Ryan Finley ($5,000, 0.8% projected ownership) against the Oakland Raiders, who give up the third-most points to quarterbacks.
Running Back
Brian Hill is chalk this week. You should play him in cash leagues, and you should consider betting against him in tournaments. He’ll get a chance at lead-back duties in Atlanta, as Devonta Freeman is out, and only Kenjon Barner is around to press him for snaps. The Panthers give up a fifth-most 29.6 DraftKings points per game to running backs, so even the matchup has appeal for Hill. Christian McCaffrey and his ungodly $10,500 salary come in next, but you get what you pay for with him. The Falcons haven’t been bad against opposing rushers, but McCaffrey should still be good for another high-floor performance. Josh Jacobs should be the next most-owned running back as Oakland takes on Cincinnati. The Bengals give up 29.8 DraftKings points per game to the position, which is the third-most in the league. Jacobs has proven that he can handle a heavy workload so far this season, and I’d expect head coach Jon Gruden to keep giving him the ball. That said, I’m also a fan of taking the guy he lines up against, Joe Mixon ($5,500, 2.2% projected ownership). Mixon is much cheaper even though last week proved that Zac Taylor sees him as the star of the offense with Ryan Finley under center. Mixon got 30 rushing attempts in a blowout against Baltimore last weekend, and while I’m sure Taylor will have Finley throw the ball a bit more his week, I’d expect Mixon to handle a lot of work again. Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliott round out the list, and their salaries and projected ownership rates are almost the same. Elliott has the much more favorable matchup, as the Lions have allowed 32.0 DraftKings points per game to running backs, which is the second-highest in the league. The Lions are starting to get healthier on defense, but I don’t know if that’ll be enough to contain Zeke. Meanwhile, Cook has a much tougher matchup, but he’s also playing in a run-heavy scheme. While I expect that Cook will be able to best Vic Fangio’s defense, if I had to pick one of Elliott or Cook, I would go with Elliott. And given their almost-interchangeable salaries, it wouldn’t be a hard swap to make.
Wide Receiver
Michael Thomas has been a reception king this season. Through just nine games, he has already caught 86 passes. He has caught fewer than eight passes in only one game this year. Given DraftKings’ PPR scoring, it should be no surprise that he’s chalk this week against a weak Tampa Bay defense. What is surprising? That neither Mike Evans ($7,400, 10.2% projected ownership) nor Chris Godwin ($7,300, 11.9% projected ownership) made the cut. The Saints will be without Marshon Lattimore on Sunday, so I’d expect both receivers to see an uptick in ownership as game time approaches. D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel should be popular options as they take on the Falcons, who give up the seventh-most 41.9 DraftKings points per game to wide receivers. That said, Atlanta will have star corner Desmond Trufant back in the lineup, so we’ll see if that limits their upside. The best receiver to own in the Falcons/Panthers tilt isn’t a Panther. Instead, it’s Falcons slot receiver Russell Gage ($3,300, 6.9% projected ownership). The Falcons won’t have either Austin Hooper or Devonta Freeman, so Gage should get a ton of short-yardage opportunities. He’s a smart low-salary floor play, and I’m surprised that his ownership rate isn’t projected to be much higher. Next up is Deebo Samuel, and the 49er has been impressive over the last two weeks. He’s caught 12 passes on 18 targets for 152 yards. With George Kittle and Matt Breida listed as doubtful, and with Emmanuel Sanders and Dante Pettis both questionable, Samuel should see more volume than usual. Lastly, look for D.J. Chark to appear in about a quarter of lineups as he takes on the Colts. He’ll be playing with Nick Foles for the first time since Week 1, and Foles’ first touchdown as a Jaguar went to the breakout receiver. The Colts haven’t been bad against wideouts, but Chark’s high upside makes him an interesting choice in tournament plays.
Tight End
Darren Waller leads off the tight ends this week. He takes on the Bengals, who are a mid-pack defense against the position. Waller’s high volume this year has certainly given him some value, but now that the Raiders have Tyrell Williams back alongside an emerging Hunter Renfrow, I’m not sure that he’s the best option. Although neither Kittle nor Travis Kelce are options this week, there’s better value elsewhere. For instance, Zach Ertz ($5,000, 4.5% projected ownership) should be a strong play this week with Alshon Jeffery out of the lineup. While I think Ertz is the smart play this week, DraftKings users don’t seem to agree with me. Greg Olsen should be the next most-owned tight end behind Waller this week, but the Falcons’ defense isn’t particularly vulnerable to tight ends. That said, Olsen had a great game last week against Green Bay, so he might keep that momentum going. Jared Cook is another popular pick, and that makes sense — the Buccaneers’ defense is the second-worst against tight ends for DraftKings points per game. Although he’ll have to compete for looks from Drew Brees, he’s a better bet than a lot of others this week. Eric Ebron comes in next, and he earned an impressive 12 targets after he spoke to head coach Frank Reich before last week’s game. With T.Y. Hilton, Parris Campbell, and Devin Funchess still out of Indy’s lineup, he could be a smart bet for just $3,600 in cap space. Mark Andrews rounds out the list, and he’ll look to build on his strong performance last week. That said, Andrews had stalled out before his two-touchdown game against the Bengals, so I’m not sure if I would commit to his massive salary hit.
Defense
The Vikings should be a strong play against Brandon Allen and the Broncos. While Allen had a strong NFL debut against the Browns, it was, unfortunately, against the Browns. The Vikings are much better and more disciplined squad, so look for Mike Zimmer’s team to exploit the young quarterback’s inexperience. Minnesota is also Jacob Herlin’s top pick this week, so dropping the $3,400 might not be a bad move. Herlin also likes the ‘Skins, the Jets, and the Saints, who all take on interception-prone quarterbacks. The Washington/New York matchup is sure to be a mess, but I expect Dwayne Haskins to struggle a lot more than Sam Darnold. The Cardinals, while not recommended by Herlin’s projections, actually make a lot of sense to me. They’re super cheap, and they’re taking on a heavily injured offense. Seriously, how much can Jimmy G do without his best playmakers? It’ll be up to Kyle Shanahan to take down the Cardinals, and while I think he can do it, Arizona should be able to keep it close.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.
