The Zero RB Strategy has become a risky but popular strategy in fantasy football drafts. Some prefer an extreme approach, eschewing most starters and targeting cheap assets in muddy backfields in the hopes of finding that RB1 who emerges from obscurity to league winner. Others prefer a slightly more balanced approach to the strategy, one with some built-in touch equity, like the one I wrote about here.
That being said, the Zero RB strategy isn’t for everybody, and there is a compelling counter-argument that with so few reliable starters and bell-cows becoming something of a rare commodity, pounding running back early and often in drafts is the best approach. After all, it’s becoming easier to find highly productive pass catchers in a pass-first league, allowing you to target wide receivers in the mid and late rounds while still prioritizing three-down, bell-cow rushers and top tier tight ends or quarterbacks early.
Such is the Zero WR Strategy.
The goal of this article is not to list all the available targets when using the Zero WR Strategy. Instead, we’re going to focus on precisely which targets you should be aiming to acquire in the middle and later rounds. To appeal to the broadest audience, we will look at FantasyPros’ ADP for half-PPR Scoring since this format values all receivers on a balanced spectrum.
For the sake of argument, let’s say your plan is to come away with three solid running backs or two, star rushers and an elite asset at another position (RB-RB-TE, RB-RB-RB, or RB-RB-QB) and then perhaps another starter. While all the WR1 and stellar WR2 candidates have likely been scooped up by Rounds 5 and 6, that still leaves us with a few strong receiver targets in the lower-tier WR2 range who possess WR1 upside. In fact, there are two that you should target right away.
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Middle-Round Targets A: Robert Woods (ADP 55.5) and Terry McLaurin (ADP 58.5)
If you feel as though you can’t wait beyond Round 5 or 6 to start building your WR core, then Robert Woods and Terry McLaurin make for ideal targets. Woods, especially, is being grossly undervalued heading into 2020.
Woods finished inside the top 10 last year in targets (114) and receptions (90), and the offense should be better. The common theme with the Rams’ offensive woes last year has been poor offensive line play. While it’s true the young line was not as good as the one opening up holes for Todd Gurley in 2018, Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards ranked Los Angeles 19th last year, so the line may not have played as poorly last year as many think. They simply couldn’t pass protect long enough for the vertical routes to open up, forcing the team into more 12 personnel and a change in a scheme that featured more shorter passes, especially in the red zone.
After all, Woods scored only 3 TDs last year, so major positive regression should ensue as the line play improves. Furthermore, he posted 575 yards after the catch which ranked 2nd in the NFL. Woods catches everything thrown his way, as he was credited with only one drop last year. Expect the entire Rams offense to be better this year, and every piece of it is coming at a discount now.
Across the country in Washington, Terry McLaurin enters his second year ready to produce borderline WR1 numbers at a WR3 price. According to Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception data, McLaurin produced the 34th best success rate against man coverage among all receivers since 2014. Note that he did that as a rookie. More impressively, McLaurin saw a contested-catch rate of about 30% last year, but he still managed to haul in over 84% of those contested targets.
Washington didn’t do much to threaten McLaurin’s status as the top target on the team, waiting until Day 3 of the NFL Draft to select Antonio Gandy-Golden. While it remains to be seen whether McLaurin will actually command something close to a 30% target share, there’s no question that he will be the featured receiver in new OC Scott Turner’s scheme, the same scheme that saw DJ Moore‘s breakout last year. Remember that Moore did that with Kyle Allen under center for nearly all of 2019.
Allen joins new HC Ron Rivera in Washington, but former college teammate Dwayne Haskins should be the starter this year and veteran Alex Smith is working hard at a miraculous comeback. Regardless of who is under center in 2020, McLaurin figures to vault himself into an elite tier of receivers.
Middle Round Targets B: Jarvis Landry (ADP 78.5), Marquise Brown (ADP 80.0), and Will Fuller (ADP 90.0)
Jarvis Landry led the Cleveland Browns in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns, yet somehow Odell Beckham Jr. continues to command a significantly higher ADP. Perpetually underrated, Landry has been as consistent a WR2 as they come. He’s never missed a game, and he should play the Adam Thielen role as the slot receiver in new HC Kevin Stefanski’s heavy play-action system. Per PFF, Landry saw ten red zone targets under play-action last year and caught four of them for touchdowns. All the guy does is produce every season, and finding a receiver who will provide that level of consistency nearly 80 picks into your draft is borderline criminal. At this point, he makes for a high priority Zero WR target.
Marquise Brown seemed to explode onto the scene last year as a rookie with 12 catches on 18 targets for 233 yards and two touchdowns in his first two career games, but his slight frame and injuries derailed what could have been an epic rookie campaign. He didn’t miss many games, but foot and ankle injuries hampered him throughout the year. According to ESPN’s Jamison Hensley, Brown has bulked up to 180 pounds this offseason, more than 20 pounds heavier than his listed weight last year.
The Ravens added Devin Duvernay later in the draft, but he profiles more as a slot receiver rather than an outside threat, while Miles Boykin plays primarily on the outside. Brown will move into the slot and play outside, making him the featured the receiver in one of the league’s most explosive offenses. His own quarterback, Lamar Jackson, is on record predicting a breakout year from Brown, and Jackson reportedly handpicked Brown as his number one receiver. Year 2 is a prime bubble for a receiver breakout, and he brings 1st round draft capital. That seven-catch, 126-yard performance in the playoffs shows us a glimpse of Brown’s upside this year and beyond.
The Texans added Brandin Cooks and they still have Kenny Stills on the roster, but Fuller should be the lead dog in this offense every game he suits up. Cooks, Stills, and Fuller all finished in the top 10 in most average yards per touchdown last year, and Deshaun Watson figures to let it fly this year. In 22 career games with Watson, Fuller averages a shade under 15 PPR points per game. If he’s healthy, and I know that’s a massive IF, then he’s no worse than a top 12 receiver in 2020. Now, will he be healthy?
We know Fuller worked with Ben Fairchild of Fairchild Sports Performance this offseason, and they focused mainly on mechanical adjustments that could help him stay on the field this year. And if he does stay on the field, this is a guy who has scored in 38% of the games he’s played in. With DeAndre Hopkins gone and all those targets up for grabs, Fuller looks pretty undervalued to me.
Late-Round Targets: Darius Slayton (ADP 106.5), Diontae Johnson (ADP 115.5), Preston Williams (ADP 162.5)
This is the bread and butter of the Zero WR Strategy, and n argument can be made that you can draft your entire WR group after the first 100 picks and still have a decent shot at landing multiple receivers who could post top-24 value at the position in 2020. Darius Slayton led the New York Giants in receiving yards and touchdowns as a rookie, building a solid rapport with Daniel Jones along the way. A dangerous deep threat, Slayton does not need to get peppered with targets to produce, not when the targets he does receive are the most valuable (those in the red zone and downfield).
Many will point to the fact that Slayton had more than three catches in just five of the games he played last year. Another criticism is that Slayton is a former 5th round pick with limited college production who just happened to produce when Golden Tate, Sterling Shephard, and Evan Engram were hurt last year. However, being the only guy left who can produce and actually going it are two different things. Slayton delivered when given the opportunity.
Diontae Johnson has become a draft season darling already, similar to the way Curtis Samuel and Mike Williams captured hearts last year around this time. Is it possible Johnson let’s fantasy owners down the same way Samuel and Williams did last season? Certainly, but it’s worth noting that Johnson has already shown he has the talent to rise above mediocre quarterback play in Pittsburgh, catching passes from Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges after Ben Roethlisberger went down early in the season. Big Ben is healthy now, and Johnson has the route running ability and strong hands to make himself a dependable target.
Most touches by a rookie wide receiver drafted after Round 2 since 2009:
83 – Tyreek Hill
71 – Keenan Allen
65 – Mike Williams (TB)
63 – Diontae Johnson
63 – Cooper Kupp— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) August 14, 2020
Preston Williams saw his rookie year cut short by injury and ultimately overshadowed by DeVante Parker‘s Year 5 breakout, which is understandable since Year 5 breakouts are about as rare as comets and eclipses. Williams only finished with 32 catches for 428 yards and three scores on 60 targets through eight games before he tore his ACL. More impressively, he posted 13.4 yards per catch and had a respectable 53.5% catch percentage. You don’t often see a UDFA receiver make the kind of impact Williams was making before he got hurt though.
He was on pace for 120 targets while sporting a snap share over 80% heading into Week 9. If he sustained his pace, Williams would have ranked among the top rookie receivers last year in receiving yards, receptions, and targets. The Dolphins didn’t add any significant receiving threats in the offseason, and the team is on the upswing with Tua Tagovailoa at the helm and Jordan Howard and Matt Breida in the backfield to bring the run game back to respectability. Williams boasts ideal size at 6-5, 218 with outstanding body control.
People forget Parker averaged just 3.5 catches for 50 yards in games he played with Williams on the field. After Williams went down, Parker went off and averaged over 100 yards per game during the final 8 games. It’s hard to pretend those two things are mutually exclusive.
Believe it or not, we never even mentioned the incoming rookie class of 2020 receivers, which many evaluators compared to the historic 2024 class. CeeDee Lamb and Jerry Jeudy may have some difficulty carving out consistent fantasy production given their crowded situations, but Jalen Reagor, Michael Pittman, Henry Ruggs, Bryan Edwards, Brandon Aiyuk, and many more could easily work their way into the WR3 conversation or better if given the opportunity. Put simply, wide receiver is deep this year, and not all the diamonds are hidden in the rough.
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Paul Ghiglieri is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Paul, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyGhigs.
