Welp, I’m pretty sure I cursed myself with last week’s column. First, I talked about how COVID-19 has made it really difficult to set a fantasy lineup, and sure enough, in one Superflex league, I had to play Daniel Jones because I didn’t know if Ryan Tannehill’s game would happen. That decision cost me a victory.
Then, I discussed how despite all the injuries at the running back and wide receiver position, the saving grace for many fantasy managers (myself included) had been massive performances from quarterbacks like…Dak Prescott. Oof. One of my title-contending teams is called C-Mac ‘n Dak, but with both of them now on IR, I may have to change the name to “[blank].”
I know, I know: “Nobody cares about your fantasy teams, Andrew!” I bring these horror stories up because a lot of you surely have similar ones. Lineup decisions were agonizing enough before the added uncertainty of whether some of the games would even be played. And injuries have always been the worst part about football — particularly for the players like Dak, who put their bodies (and careers) on the line every Sunday. Still, I think we can all agree that there would be a void in our lives without this game.
One thing that helps me get over a bad beat with one of my teams is the feeling that I may have helped someone else out with theirs. I like to think that I did just that with my Week 5 rankings, which were my most accurate ones yet. It was also a very good week for the overvalued and undervalued selections I included in this column.
I’m particularly pleased that three of my sleeper candidates to stream or flex really delivered for fantasy owners who entrusted them: Justin Herbert, Justin Jackson, and Darius Slayton. Meanwhile, Jonathan Taylor and Robert Woods underwhelmed as I expected they would, and Tyler Higbee proved me right for the second straight week with his continued disappearing act. Gardner Minshew didn’t play well, but his final numbers fell in between my low ranking and the expert consensus, so we’ll call that one a draw. My only real miss was Eric Ebron, who would have needed to haul in a touchdown (or at least not to fumble) to meet my expectations.
As always, my Week 6 picks for overvalued and undervalued fantasy players are in comparison to FantasyPros’ Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) for 0.5 PPR formats. If you’ve got a lineup decision that you need help with, hit me up on Twitter @andrew_seifter. And make sure to tune in to my fantasy sports show MFSN’s The Hub on YouTube. New episodes air on Tuesdays (waiver wire) and Saturdays (big picture strategy talk and weekly fantasy predictions). We’ve been getting some great guests, too!
View your league’s top available players with My Playbook 
Quarterback
Overvalued: Lamar Jackson (BAL)
ECR: QB4
My Rank: QB6
My quarterback rankings are mostly chalk this week, but let’s talk about Lamar Jackson. I just got finished calling him the best buy-low in fantasy football right now, so it’s safe to say that I’m not down on him for the rest of the season. But for Week 6? I think it’s best to keep our expectations somewhat in check.
Jackson is coming off a game where he ran the ball just twice for three yards, the lowest rushing output of his career. Part of that was surely the result of the lopsided scoreline, as the Ravens blew out the Bengals, but it can also be attributed to the knee soreness he felt during practice. This week, he said that the team would adjust and have him run more when necessary to win games, but there’s no need to push it with Baltimore sitting at 4-1. Given that Jackson’s knee may still be an issue, and that the Ravens are eight-point favorites over an Eagles team that has given up the fewest rushing yards to quarterbacks (5.4 yards per game), this may not be the week that Jackson returns to his running ways. He could always explode at any point, but that is just enough of a concern for me to slot him behind two signal-callers who are currently playing great football, Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson.
Undervalued: Kirk Cousins (MIN)
ECR: QB10
My Rank: QB7
When I was a kid, my parents used to tell me that it “takes two to tango,” and the same goes for fantasy football. We can’t assess the fantasy value of a quarterback in a vacuum — the defense they’re facing matters a lot, too. It’s one thing to say that the Falcons have the worst pass defense in the league, but that doesn’t truly do justice to just how bad they’ve been. Atlanta allows over 30 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, nearly six points more than the next worst defense (Seattle). That’s as big a gap as there is between Seattle and teams that are above average against the pass like New England, Houston, and Tennessee. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging a whopping 345.6 yards and three touchdowns against the Falcons.
Cousins hasn’t been putting up those kinds of numbers, mind you, but the Vikings’ passing attack is trending up with rookie Justin Jefferson emerging as a legit 1B to Adam Thielen, and talented second-year tight end Irv Smith had a mini-breakout last week. Alexander Mattison is a more-than-adequate replacement for an injured Dalvin Cook (groin), but perhaps Cook’s absence — and the opponent — will persuade Vikings coach Mike Zimmer to be a little more pass-happy than usual this week.
Running Back
Overvalued: Nyheim Hines (IND)
ECR: RB32
My Rank: RB39
I blew a lot of FAAB on Hines in one league after his big Week 1 performance, but I’m ready to cut my losses at this point. In the four games since then, Hines has never played more than 38 percent of the snaps and ranks barely inside the top-50 running backs in fantasy value. Indianapolis fields an elite defense and a low-octane offense that doesn’t put its skill position players in a position to put up big numbers, particularly the team’s pass-catching back. This week, the Colts are favored by more than a touchdown against Cincinnati, making it highly unlikely that Indianapolis will fall behind and resort to using their hurry-up offense. Look for the Colts to try to ride their defense and Jonathan Taylor — and for Hines to ride the pine.
Undervalued: Jamaal Williams (GB)
ECR: RB48
My Rank: RB32
We all know the running back position tends to thin out quickly after the top-25 or so players, but Williams is worth a look if you’re in dire need of an RB3/flex option this week. The Packers’ backup was already worth rostering as a handcuff to Aaron Jones, but now he’s coming off a game where he played a season-high 57.1 percent of the snaps and hauled in eight catches for 95 yards. Williams also quietly has seven red zone carries through the Packers’ first four games, meaning a rushing touchdown isn’t outside the realm of possibility in any given week.
You obviously can’t expect eight catches every week (he was playing the Falcons), but it is reasonable to anticipate that Williams will continue to see more targets than usual while Allen Lazard is sidelined. Even with Davante Adams returning, the Packers have few proven pass-catchers, and Williams is one that Aaron Rodgers trusts and believes in. This week’s opponent, the Bucs, have been very tough against opposing running backs overall, but their weak spot has been pass-catching backs. Tampa Bay has already given up at least 29 receiving yards to five different running backs, and they have given up the fifth-most receiving yards to running backs in the league (57.2 yards per game).
Wide Receiver
Overvalued: Robert Woods (LAR)
ECR: WR12
My Rank: WR23
Woods makes this list for the second-straight week, as the concerns I expressed about him last week haven’t changed. Sure, Woods did just fine in Week 5 thanks to a 56-yard touchdown, but he was targeted just five times, and he’s yet to exceed eight targets in a game this year after getting nine-plus looks in 10 of 15 games last season. Simply put, that is not WR1 usage regardless of matchup.
That said, the matchup this week isn’t so hot either. Yes, the Dolphins had a lot of success against San Francisco through the air last week, but the 49ers have still given up the seventh-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers and should get top corner Emmanuel Moseley back this week. Expect the Rams to go with a run-heavy approach again this week, and if one of their receivers has a big week, it will most likely be Cooper Kupp from out of the slot.
Undervalued: Mecole Hardman (KC)
ECR: WR32
My Rank: WR22
Hardman was my top waiver wire pickup at wide receiver this week — despite Chase Claypool’s four-touchdown eruption — and it’s reflected here in my Week 6 rankings. No receiver has done more with less over the last year-plus than the Chiefs’ speedster, who led all wideouts in yards per reception last year (minimum 25 catches) and has found the end zone on eight of his 38 career receptions to date. Now, with Sammy Watkins expected to miss multiple weeks with a hamstring injury, Hardman has a terrific opportunity to fully deliver on his potential.
This week, Hardman faces an overrated Bills defense that has already been torched by Jamison Crowder, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, DeVante Parker, and A.J. Brown. This heavyweight contest has the highest over/under on the Week 6 slate, and the Chiefs unsurprisingly have the highest implied point total (30.5 points). If Hardman can light up the box score on three to six targets per week, imagine what he could do with eight or nine!
Tight End
Overvalued: Dalton Schultz (DAL)
ECR: TE10
My Rank: TE14
Look, I firmly believe that Andy Dalton can do a decent Jon Kitna impression as the Cowboys’ quarterback, but there is little doubt that a drop-off is coming for Dallas’ passing game. Between Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup, there are many mouths to feed in Big D, so it stands to reason that the first name to get squeezed out of fantasy relevance will be the team’s unheralded tight end.
Schultz has performed admirably since Blake Jarwin went down, but he isn’t a special talent. The play here was always about finding a tight end attached to an elite passer operating in a pass-heavy game plan. Dalton is obviously not on Dak Prescott’s level as a passer, and the Cowboys will likely try to lean on Ezekiel Elliott and the running game more now — at least until their flimsy defense leaves them down by multiple scores. Either way, Dallas will put fewer points on the board, reducing the likelihood that Schultz finds the end zone.
Undervalued: Robert Tonyan (GB)
ECR: TE8
My Rank: TE5
While Schultz no longer gets to catch passes from an elite quarterback, Tonyan most certainly does. And like Jamaal Williams, Tonyan should continue to benefit from the lack of reliable wide receivers available to Aaron Rodgers.
Rodgers has been a big booster of Tonyan since Day One, and the pair have developed an incredibly efficient connection over the last three games. Rodgers has completed 13 of the 14 passes he’s thrown Tonyan’s way, for 173 yards and five touchdowns. That has made Tonyan the TE4 in fantasy points per game, even though he didn’t receive a single target in Week 1. Rodgers is playing as well as he has in years, and he clearly wants to continue to feature Tonyan. Given the current tight end wasteland, that’s enough to slot Tonyan into my top-five at the position this week.
Import your team to My Playbook for instant Lineup & Trade advice
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team, and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.
