Paul Ghiglieri | Sun, Mar 28th 2021, 7:04am EDT

Dynasty Buys Post Free Agency (2021 Fantasy Football)

The windfall from free agency almost always sends ripples across dynasty leagues, as player values change with each rumor and deal. While there are always opportunities to exploit the rumor mill during the free agency period, waiting for all the chips to fall in place is generally a more prudent approach since we have definitive information about where players end up, how their value changes, and how their arrival (or departure) impacts other players.

With that, let’s take a look at some players who look like prime buys in dynasty leagues post-free agency.

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Quarterbacks

Andy Dalton (QB – CHI)
Dalton no longer boasts any upside as a quarterback, and that was evident last season when he was only able to post middling QB2 numbers in Dallas despite having a pass-catching trio of Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup. However, in a Super-Flex league, any quarterback with a pulse has value, especially those who are slated to start. Dalton’s deal (one year, $10 million) does not preclude the Bears from taking a quarterback of the future now that the Mitchell Trubisky era is over, but a dynasty manager needing depth at QB or a break-the-glass insurance policy could do far worse than having Dalton throwing to Allen Robinson, emerging playmakers in Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet, the versatile Damien Williams, and a returning Tarik Cohen, all of whom probably get slight bumps in value given what has been under center in recent seasons.

Dak Prescott (QB – DAL)
Dak Prescott finally got paid, and he returns to throw to the aforementioned trio of Cooper, Lamb, and Gallup in 2021. Acquiring Dak won’t be cheap. In fact, it might cost you a mint and your firstborn if his manager is a Cowboys fan, but he’s proven he’s a high-upside QB1 when on the field, and the team continues to surround him with talent. When healthy, Dak has proven he can string off weeks of 30+ fantasy points per game, and linebacker Keanu Neal is the only addition they’ve made so far to a middling defense. A fantasy manager concerned about Dak’s long-term health may want to get out from underneath him now before another injury strikes rather than still viewing him as a building block. Now would be the time to inquire about his availability.

Jared Goff (QB – DET)
A lot of fantasy analysts will recommend Jared Goff as a sell now that he no longer has HC Sean McVay calling plays in his ear, but the reality is that there was a disconnect between Goff and his head coach that seriously hampered his production in Los Angeles.

It goes without saying that 2017-2018 will go down as career years for Goff when he threw for 8,492 yards and 60 touchdowns with just 19 INTs. Anyone expecting that from him in Detroit is delusional. However, it’s very likely that the Goff manager in your league was hoping he would return to that form under McVay, and the trade to Detroit effectively kills that upside dream.

It’s also equally likely that a gulf exists between what Goff can actually do in Detroit and what his disappointed manager assumed he will. Goff is best suited as a low-end QB2 or even QB3 depth option in a Super-Flex league, but if recent reports are to be believed, a simpler offense and less micromanagement may actually allow Goff to settle down and play better football despite being on a worse team.

The Lions want to run the ball more, but Goff (and the Rams) were at their best when they ran more, too, rather than asking Goff to lead the league in attempts like he did in 2019. When Goff does drop back to pass, he will have D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams as capable pass-catchers out of the backfield and veteran free-agent additions Breshad Perriman and Tyrell Williams joining gritty second-year wideout Quintez Cephus to win on the perimeter. Tight end T.J. Hockenson may be the biggest beneficiary (more on him below) as the primary short-to-intermediate target in OC Anthony Lynn’s offense. Don’t expect great things, but Goff’s price has dropped so much that he’s actually somewhat of a value now.

Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA)
People quickly forget that “Tank for Tua” was a thing once, and all Tua has done is start nine games and attempt a meager 290 passes for people to decide his value. There is a saying in baseball: “prospect growth is not linear.” As Josh Allen, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, Ryan Tannehill, and many others have proven, the same could be said for quarterback play. Tua lit the college football landscape on fire but largely underwhelmed when he took over for Ryan Fitzpatrick in Miami. However, Tua’s 64.1% completion percentage and 11:5 TD:INT ratio showed promise, and not enough has been made out of the fact that Tua did not have a very strong supporting cast in his first season as a pro.

The Dolphins have already added Will Fuller to operate as a primary receiver, and Preston Williams should be back healthy next year. We haven’t seen the best of what should be a fully healthy Tua yet, but an impatient manager may have seen enough to get off the train now, creating a buying opportunity.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB – WAS)
Acquiring Ryan Fitzpatrick is advised only if you’re a contender in your dynasty league. It’s not a guarantee that Washington doesn’t do exactly what Miami did and draft their franchise quarterback this year only for him to take over for Fitz mid-season. For now, however, Fitzpatrick has proven that he can post top-10 numbers at the position. The upside is palpable so long as you can stomach the turnovers. It might be a stretch to assume Fitzpatrick will actually hold onto the starting job in Washington for an entire season, but for however long he has it, he’s almost certain to post high-end production, high enough some weeks that he may single-handedly win you your matchup. FitzMagic lives on… for one more season, at least.

Matthew Stafford (QB – LAR)
I’ll keep this one simple. Matthew Stafford may compete for an MVP with Sean McVay calling plays for him in 2021. Stafford ranks 16th in NFL history in passing yards (45,109) and TDs (282). He ranks second in NFL history in passing yards per game (273.4). He is the fastest quarterback in NFL history to record 20,000, 30,000, and 40,000 passing yards. He will play behind a competent offensive line and will have the benefit of a stellar supporting cast of receivers, a strong defense, an exceptional run game, and a proven and creative offensive play-caller… basically everything we waited for every year of his career in Detroit but never received. He could easily post top-five numbers at the position next year, and he will not cost nearly as much as most of the names ranked inside the top-10 right now.

Running Backs

Mike Davis (RB – ATL)
Many assume that the Falcons brought Mike Davis in to be the backup, and the team will draft a starter with an early pick. That may be true, but it’s equally possible that Davis showed the Falcons that he is more than capable of operating as a high-level starter after performing as one in Carolina during Christian McCaffrey’s near season-long absence in 2020. Davis totaled over 1,000 yards from scrimmage as a bell-cow back who excelled in the passing game and runs hard between the tackles. Atlanta may draft a rusher, but Davis’ track record and the two-year deal mean the Falcons view him as no less than a committee back, with the possibility for more. A dynasty team in need of running back depth should see if the Davis manager views him as anything more than a placeholder keeping the seat warm for a Day 1 or Day 2 rookie.

Phillip Lindsay (RB – HOU)
Here’s a live look at the Houston Texans franchise right now:

via Gfycat

Despite trouble in paradise for a team that was a Super Bowl contender just a year ago, a shrewd dynasty manager should be able to fin the goods in any situation. In this case, we have Phillip Lindsay, who should finally get the chance to operate as a lead back within a committee rather than the short side of one. Lindsay’s burst will serve him well playing behind a poor offensive line in Houston, but if mobile quarterback Tyrod Taylor ends up starting, that should open up some holes through more RPO and play-action concepts.

Lindsay was the first offensive rookie to make a Pro Bowl, and he keeps getting better as a pass-catcher, though he probably won’t catch many passes in Houston. Regardless, Lindsay has two seasons of over 1,000 yards under his belt. Lacking in playmakers, expect Houston to lean on Lindsay for explosive plays, and that generates fantasy points. Much like with Mike Davis, a dynasty manager needing running back depth with some upside should look to Lindsay to fill that void.

James Robinson (RB – JAX)
Dynasty managers may as well have started a club last season called the “I Cashed in on James Robinson Club.” Many boasted online about dealing Robinson for a future first-round pick or other, more “established” veteran. Yet, all James Robinson did was establish that he could be among the most productive lead backs in football when given volume. He rushed for 1,040 yards on 240 carries, adding another 344 yards on 44 receptions to go along with 1o total touchdowns. Questions about volume and how the incoming coaching staff under head coach Urban Meyer will view him have once again motivated Robinson managers to open up talks to move him. However, the only competition for the role the team added is Carlos Hyde, and that should be music to dynasty managers’ ears. If Robinson eclipses 1,000 yards again, it may be his managers who have the last laugh after buying a young RB1 stud for the price of a late first or early second round rookie pick.

Hyde is essentially an older, mostly washed-up version of Robinson, but GM Trent Baalke drafted Hyde back when he was running the 49ers years ago. The Hyde addition seems to signal that the team views Robinson as the guy. Hyde represents a close enough approximation in terms of playstyle that the offense wouldn’t have to dramatically change should Robinson get hurt. The Jaguars may still draft a running back to compete with Robinson, but unless that rusher is a Day 1 or 2 pick with lead back size, Robinson should continue to operate as the man next year.

Chris Carson (RB – SEA)
Chris Carson’s return to Seattle is perfect because we know exactly how the team will use him. After two consecutive seasons with over 1,000 yards, Carson only managed 681 yards in 12 games. However, his 4.8 YPC was strong, and he actually matched his career-high for receptions (37) in three fewer games, demonstrating a stronger three-down skillset. Many assumed the Seahawks would let Carson, 26, leave for a bigger payday and roll with former first-rounder Rashaad Penny as their lead back, but for as often as Carson has been injured, Penny has seen the field even less. Carson will return as the lead back on a run-first team with a Hall of Fame quarterback, keeping defenses honest. More of the same may not have been what Carson’s manager hoped for in 2021, so make an offer.

Cam Akers (RB – LAR)
Cam Akers might be the biggest beneficiary with Stafford’s arrival. Current ADP shows Cam Akers being valued in redraft as a mid-range RB2, and I find that egregiously low. Use that perception to your advantage and make a pitch for Akers now. Akers is one of the few every-down backs in football, and the Rams’ addition of Matthew Stafford should only elevate the play-action game, opening more rushing lanes for Akers. The young rusher averaged nearly 24 touches/game during his final six outings in 2020. Moreover, only 12 percent of Jared Goff’s passes went to running backs last season, compared to Stafford’s 22 percent. Akers will be an RB1 in 2021 and beyond. Receivers Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp also stand to benefit, so returning to something closer to their peak production from 2018-2019 can be expected.

Wide Receivers

Kenny Golladay (WR – NYG)
Kenny Golladay leaves Detroit for a four-year, $72 million deal with the New York Giants. On one hand, Golladay’s departure from Detroit is a good one since his downfield, contested-catch skills are not ideal for Jared Goff’s game, which relies more on hitting the open target in scheme-specific, well-designed plays. Moreover, Golladay immediately becomes the number one receiver in New York without Marvin Jones gobbling up red-zone targets. The Giants’ other receivers complement Golladay well, so he has a chance to operate as a true alpha now. Despite that, many dynasty managers with Golladay let out a collective groan with the move to New York because Daniel Jones is a steep downgrade from catching passes from Matthew Stafford. While this is true, much of Jones’s struggles can be attributed to not having a receiver like Golladay on the field.

Let’s not make the mistake of using Stefon Diggs in Buffalo as a reason to expect Golladay to make the leap into a superstar. The context is not the same, and the players involved couldn’t be more different. Many dynasty managers who have Golladay likely view this move to New York as a lateral, static move. However, some view it as a downgrade given Jones’ struggles, the playcalling by Jason Garrett, and the Giants’ troubles along the offensive line. If that’s how Golladay’s manager in your league feels, then there is a buying opportunity here. However, the money the Giants are giving Golladay suggests that they believe they needed him to win and help Jones’s development, so it’s a good bet that he will command a larger target share than he did in Detroit. Jones’ game matches Golladay’s quite well, and the downfield attempts figure to increase now.

Will Fuller (WR – MIA)
Will Fuller’s injury history has typically caused me to fade the talented receiver in years past, but he’s become a far more well-rounded receiver the more he has played in the league, demonstrating success at every level of the field and refining his route running.

Most dynasty managers who have Fuller sighed when it became official that he would no longer be paired with an elite quarterback like Deshaun Watson. Some may have even cringed when he signed with Miami to catch passes from the still, very green Tua Tagovailoa with the pedestrian YPA numbers. However, as Matt Harmon’s great work above reveals, Fuller won’t just serve as a deep threat for Tua in Miami. Expect Fuller to be featured heavily on slants, screens, curls, and digs to take advantage of Tua’s accuracy and give the young signal-caller a legitimate number one read.

Many forget that Tua has a strong arm as well, and Fuller’s speed makes him one of the best “go route” receivers in football, so the team figures to take shots to Fuller deep. There is WR1 receiver upside here, and Fuller is currently being ranked as a low-end WR2 for 2021. Many owners feel even that is overly optimistic, so you can probably acquire Fuller for a WR3 price or less. Is there risk baked in? Certainly, but that’s why he’s going for a discount. Consider Fuller a buy for a win-now dynasty team, and hope Miami does not draft Ja’Marr Chase in the first round!

D.J. Chark (WR – JAC), Laviska Shenault (WR – JAC), and Marvin Jones (WR – JAC)
D.J. Chark can blaze (4.34 forty), and his 90+ percentile speed and burst scores essentially turbocharge his elite route running. When Chark was featured in 2019, his yards per route run, catch rate, and air yard share were all among the league leaders. Unfortunately, the success of 2019 was followed by a disappointing 2020 season. Cue Trevor Lawrence in 2021. Chark’s 1,300 air yards in 2020 were good for eighth overall in football, but his unrealized air yards (756) were sixth-highest in the league. His 59% contested catch rate was good for 21st among receivers, but his catchable target rate (70.2%) ranked 90th among wideouts last year. Then there is this: when combining air yards and yards after catch (AirYAC) per game, Chark ranked top-12 among all pass-catchers in the NFL last year.

Laviska Shenault can line up anywhere, and he’s the type of versatile WR/RB that head coach Urban Meyer has already made a star out of in former NFL phenom Percy Harvin. Marvin Jones Jr. is the type of contested catch maven that will endear him to a rookie quarterback in his first year, so he should soak up plenty of targets, especially near the red zone. Expect Lawrence to elevate everyone on this offense.

Bryan Edwards (WR – LVR)
Bryan Edwards is the perfect target to ask for as a throw-in as part of a larger deal, and his manager might be happy to someone is willing to take him after a disappointing rookie season that usually portends to an underwhelming career. However, Bryan Edwards had one of the earliest documented college breakout ages (17), according to PlayerProfiler.com. Moreover, Raiders GM Mike Mayock felt that had Edwards not been hurt during the combine, he very well may have been taken in the first round in 2020. Despite the injury, the Raiders still took Edwards in the third round after spending a first-rounder on Henry Ruggs. Edwards promptly got hurt again early in the season, and he simply never got going with the lack of practice reps and opportunities to build chemistry with quarterback Derek Carr.

Edwards’ college dominator rating ranked in the 94th percentile, and at 6’3″, 212lbs, he’s built like an alpha, and the team remains high on him. Oft-injured John Brown and Ruggs are fine complements to Edwards, the only receiver on the roster built to operate as a true WR1. Maybe Edwards flames out after this year. Perhaps he breaks out instead. The price is low enough that it’s worth paying to find out.

Curtis Samuel (WR – WAS) and Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS)
Curtis Samuel has always been a dynamic playmaker, possessing elite speed and versatility as a ball carrier. Early in his career, the Carolina Panthers under HC Ron Rivera and OC Scott Turner used Samuel more downfield with an average depth of target (aDOT) of 14.6. They tried to take advantage of Samuel’s speed to create mismatches and get him the ball in space, but atrocious quarterback play limited his production in 2019. In 2020, the new regime under Matt Rhule opted to use Robby Anderson downfield and Samuel more in the slot and as a joker, lining him up in the backfield and focusing on getting him the ball on shorter and intermediate passes to allow him to use his speed to make plays. It’s possible that Turner took note, and the pitch to Samuel was that they’d use him in a myriad of ways to take advantage of his speed.

With Samuel in tow capable of stretching the field, defenses will no longer be able to swing double or triple coverage Terry McLaurin’s way. All of this should pave the way for…

Tight Ends

T.J. Hockenson (TE – DET)
Jared Goff’s average depth of target fell to 6.2 last year, so he figures to look for Hockenson early and often in the passing game. The tight end was an excellent run blocker last year, so he figures to remain on the field for almost the entire game as well. Former Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford preferred to push the ball downfield more, but Goff’s preference for the short-to-intermediate area of the field will suit Hockenson’s skill set better. The former number eight overall pick out of Iowa was PFF’s highest-graded TE coming out of college, and he began his career in historic fashion with six catches for 131 yards and a touchdown. With very little in terms of receiving talent out wide, Hockenson should command a large target share, so we could see more of that in 2021.

Gerald Everett (TE – SEA)
Gerald Everett never quite lived up to his potential in Los Angeles after HC Sean McVay proclaimed Everett could be his “Jordan Reed .” Nonetheless, his former position coach in LA, Shane Waldron, will now be calling plays as Seattle’s OC, so Everett will already know the offense. The plan is to capitalize on Everett’s versatility and move him around in the offense to exploit mismatches and take advantage of his run-after-the-catch ability. Everett is by far the most athletic tight end HOF-bound QB Russell Wilson has ever played with a 93rd percentile Burst Score and all other metrics well above average. Everett’s manager undoubtedly is hopeful Wilson will rejuvenate the tight end’s career, so acquiring him won’t be cheap, but the cost should be far less than Hockenson and some of the other top tight ends.

Jonnu Smith (TE – NE)
Jonnu Smith managers were excited to see where he would land with his first taste of free agency, and most were ecstatic when he landed in New England for a massive four-year, $50 million contract that suggested he would be a featured part of the offense after spending way too much time run blocking in Tennessee. Smith is one of the most athletic tight ends in football, and athleticism is what you want when looking for a breakout tight end. Most of his upside appeared dashed when the Patriots promptly went out and signed Hunter Henry to a three-year, $37.4 million deal. It’s hard to imagine a largely run-first offense supporting two tight ends for fantasy in the passing game, especially with Cam Newton back at the helm. However, Henry’s advanced metrics were actually mediocre last season, and he’s nowhere near as athletic as Smith on the field.

Given the lack of wide receiver talent on the team, Smith and Henry will almost certainly be the primary targets in the red zone, and defenses will be unable to double cover them both, ensuring that each will get his ample share of targets in the money zone. Smith’s manager is probably open to selling him, believing the two tight ends will cannibalize each other’s production. However, I see nothing but upside. If Cam Newton is able to sustain drives with his legs, I expect him to target both tight ends consistently, enough that both should lead the team in target share over the wide receivers. Moreover, all of New England’s free-agent moves indicate they are poised to take a young quarterback early in the draft, with most mocks having them making a move to take Alabama’s, Mac Jones. Should Newton falter and Jones take over, the young, accurate QB will lean even more on his tight ends as most rookie QBs do. Buy the dip on Jonnu Smith.

Logan Thomas (TE – WAS)
Logan Thomas is a former college quarterback who converted to tight end in the pros. Thomas’s 97.8 percent snap share last year led the league for tight ends, and he became an integral part of Washington’s offense as the season progressed. The addition of Curtis Samuel will certainly cut into Thomas’ target share, since last season risk-averse veteran Alex Smith targeted Thomas relentlessly, as Thomas finished third among all tight ends in targets with 110. And the team had no other viable threats in the receiving game to counter defenses double covering Terry McLaurin. That said, new QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has shown he can elevate his tight ends as well.

The target share will come down with Samuel there, but Thomas may see more looks in the red zone and downfield with the stronger-armed Fitzpatrick under center. Thomas should be able to maintain top-12 upside at the position, and his manager may be willing to move him, given this draft has more tight end prospects than usual.