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20 Things to Watch for in Week 3 (Fantasy Baseball)


 
Welcome fantasy friends and foes to Week 3 in Fantasy Baseball.

Through two weeks of the 2022 season, we have seen Mother Nature and COVID-19 wreck havoc in our fake baseball world. But, of course, we also had many highlights, including witnessing the Detroit Tigers Miguel Cabrera reach his 3,000 hit milestone. So let’s continue the positive vibe and look forward to Week 3 and the beginning of May.

Here are 20 things that Fantasy managers need to look for in Week 3.

1. Oakland A’s only play five games this week.

Aside from having Sean Murphy, the top current fantasy catcher, there doesn’t seem to be much to worry about losing fantasy opportunities.

2. 18 Teams are playing six games in Week 3.

Three teams play on the road all week, including the Chicago Cubs, Detroit Tigers, and the San Diego Padres. Conversely, two teams play at home all week, including the Chicago White Sox and the Pittsburgh Pirates. In addition, the Cincinnati Reds play their games at hitter-friendly parks this week. On the other hand, the New York Mets and the Tampa Bay Rays will play in pitcher-friendly parks this week.

3. 11 Teams are playing seven games this week.

The Houston Astros are on the road all week. The Texas Rangers and the Toronto Blue Jays play all seven games at home, and the Cardinals play in pitcher-friendly parks all week.

4-6. Two-Start Pitchers

Mitch Keller (SP-PIT)

After Mitch Keller gave up four earned runs in his first starts this season, there was talking of pulling Keller from the Pirates rotation. However, his third start showed his potential as a big-league starter. He took the loss against the Milwaukee Brewers but showed promising signs after allowing one run on four hits with seven strikeouts and zero walks across 5.1 innings. His stuff was electric. Keller threw ten pitches that hit at least 97 mph and generated ten whiffs.

Keller will try to carry this momentum in a rematch against the Brewers at PNC Park in his first start next week. Then, he will continue to enjoy home cooking in his second start next week when he takes on the San Diego Padres.

Miles Mikolas (SP-STL)

Miles Mikolas has got off to a surprisingly good start to the 2022 season. Mikolas is 1-0 with an impressive 1.76 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and a 13/3 K/BB ratio across 15.1 innings. Mikolas looks like he is regaining his 2018 form.

Mikolas is the ideal streaming option with two-plus matchups this week when he takes on the Arizona Diamondbacks and the New York Mets. So ride the hot hand until it burns you.

Luis Severino (SP-NYY)

Luis Severino made a dazzling return to the mound this season to make his first start since 2019. In his three starts this season, he is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA and a 3.04 FIP. He has struck out 14 opposing batters in 13 innings. His fastball averages 97.6 mph, and he has topped out at 99. He also throws his changeup, which is producing a 31.6 whiff rate. Severino combines that with his rejuvenated cutter, generating an incredible 58.3 whiff rate, and batters are only hitting .200 against.

The flame-throwing right-hander has two excellent matchups this week. First, he welcomes the Baltimore Orioles to Yankee Stadium and then goes on the road to take on the Kansas City Royals. Severino is a no-brainer start in both plus-matchups.

7. Ronald Acuna rehab

Ronald Acuna is one of the top players in baseball and has been on the mend since tearing his ACL last July. All eyes will be on his rehab assignment with the team’s Triple-A Gwinnett Stripers. The initial results display that he looks healthy. He has been smacking the ball and playing the field for an entire game, even stealing a base. He is running in a minor league game is a terrific sign.

Acuna is a game-changer for the Atlanta Braves and fantasy managers. He was on his way to a 40/40 season last year before the injury.

Acuna is targeting the first week of May for his 2022 debut. He will significantly impact the Braves lineup and attempt to carry the defending champions.

8. Gerritt Cole struggles

It’s a challenge not to overreact after a dozen games, but consensus number one pitcher, Gerritt Cole’s struggles, must be concerning.

Cole is winless in his three starts, posting a dismal 6.35 ERA with 12 strikeouts across 11.1 innings. In his last start, he only lasted an inning and two-thirds against the Detroit Tigers. He surrendered five walks, one hit, and two earned runs while throwing 68 pitches, only 37 of which were strikes.

His downward spiral started in June last season when the MLB decided to enforce the rules concerning foreign substances with pitchers. Cole also struggled after the All-Star break with COVID and never got back on track. The Yankees right-hander posted a 4.14 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with batters hitting .255 across 67.1 innings. Cole started in the AL Wild Card game and lasted only two innings against the Boston Red Sox and gave up three earned runs, four hits, and coughed up two free passes.

Fantasy managers will not receive fair trade value in return for Cole, so you must hope his struggles are temporary. We will see if Cole can restore his top fantasy pitcher ranking when he takes on the Cleveland Guardians on Sunday in his next start.

9. COVID-19

COVID-19 continues to create turmoil, including in Oakland, where the Oakland A’s are in the middle of the largest outbreak in the MLB this season, with seven players on the COVID-19-related injured list.

The outbreak also exists in Seattle, where the Marines have placed outfielder Mitch Haniger and catcher Luis Torrens on the IL. Then recently, the Mariners announced that manager Scott Servais and third-base coach Manny Acta tested positive.

The Blue Jays play all seven games at the Rogers Centre this week. With a vaccine mandate in Canada, all players must be fully vaccinated. Unvaccinated individuals are not permitted to enter the country. The Blue Jays welcome the Boston Red Sox and the Houston Astros. The Red Sox are currently experiencing an outbreak, including manager Alex Cora who tested positive for COVID-19 even though he is fully vaccinated and boosted. The Red Sox has three players who tested positive and will also be without starting pitcher Tanner Houck, who was unvaccinated and unable to travel to Canada.

Fantasy managers will need to follow the breaking news regarding these teams and their daily lineups.

10. Trevor Bauer

The league and union have agreed to extend Bauer’s administrative leave period through April 29. Bauer has missed 105 games since the league place him on administrative leave over a sexual assault scandal.

Bauer was cleared in February of criminal charges, but he could still face suspension from the league if the MLB determines that he violated the league’s sexual assault policy.

Bauer is trending due to the latest news regarding the extension, but I find it hard to believe we see Bauer in a Dodgers uniform this season. Interestingly, Bauer is still being rostered in 62% of Yahoo leagues.

11. Return of Luis Castillo

After successfully throwing a live batting session on Tuesday, Luis Castillo will begin a Sunday rehab assignment at High-A Dayton. He looked sharp and produced several swings and misses.

Castillo started the season on the injured list due to right shoulder soreness. The right-hander will ramp up across his two rehab outings with the anticipation of returning to start against the Milwaukee Brewers on May 4th.

12. Alex Kirilloff rehabing

Next week, Alex Kirilloff is headed to a rehab assignment at Triple-A St. Paul to determine if his wrist is healed and that there are no lingering effects from the injury. Kirilloff has been recognized as a natural hitter in the minors and owns a career .318/.366/.503 slash in the minors. Unfortunately, he has not been able to stay healthy during his big league career.

The former top prospect saw his 2021 season end after he underwent surgery to repair a torn ligament in that same wrist. Kirilloff says the wrist pain feels “definitely similar” to what he felt last year. However, his latest MRI did not reveal any new damage, and Kirilloff received a cortisone injection to help with the pain and inflammation.

The left-hand-hitting Kirilloff will play in a few rebab games next week and should return to the Minnesota Twins shortly afterward. Kirilloff has upside with a valuable skill set as a first baseman and outfielder who is a massive part of the Twins’ long-term plans. Fantasy managers should confirm if Kirilloff is not on the waiver wire in your leagues.

13. Brandon Marsh‘s encouraging start

The release of outfielder Justin Upton showed that the Los Angeles Angels are believers in their young outfielders, Jo Adell and Brandon Marsh.

Marsh has validated the team’s belief in him by hitting .323/.425/.516 with a .941 OPS, one homer, and 11 RBI across 11 games. His encouraging start is also producing an above-average 20..0 strikeout percentage, which is an improvement from his 35 percent strikeout rate across 70 games last season. Additionally, his hitting profile suggests positive metrics with a 52.0 percent hard-hit rate and a 44.0 percent line-drive rate. Furthermore, he brings a speed element to the game, including stealing six bags last season in 70 games and one stolen base so far this season.

Surprisingly, he is rostered in less than 20 percent of leagues. However, Marsh is a legit fantasy asset who should be rostered in all formats.

14-17. Closer Jobs

Most teams have reached the 15-game plateau, and we have already witnessed changes in who managers call to the bullpen to close games. Here are the latest adjustments that fantasy managers should consider next week.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs started the season with an uninspiring bullpen on a team projected to struggle this season. Rowan Wick had the most saves (five) of any holdover from last season. However, the veteran closer came out of nowhere as a surprise fantasy contributor.

David Robertson has been effective and is 4-for-4 in save opportunities this season. He has yet to give up a run on the season while giving up only one hit across six innings. Roberston is the Cubs’ primary closer and evidence that you should never pay for closers at your draft.

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles hoped to find a closer among several bullpen options heading into the season. Instead, Right-hander Jorge Lopez has emerged from the crowd to take over the closer role for the Orioles. Lopez is 3-for-3 in save opportunities while posting a 2.25 ERA and 12.4 K/9 across eight innings this season.

Fantasy managers are always looking for saves, and with no other viable options in Baltimore, Lopez seems to be locked in as the team’s primary closer.

Kansas City Royals

After recording 16 saves and posting a 2,42 ERA, Scott Barlow was projected to be the Royals’ closer in 2022. Barlow is pitching well to start the season, posting a 1.35 ERA with one save and seven strikeouts in 6.2 innings. However, Josh Staumont has converted both of his save opportunities this season with a 3.00 ERA, eight strikeouts over six innings pitched.

There doesn’t seem to be one outright reliever utilized as the closer, which means the dreaded closer-by-committee, which causes headaches for fantasy managers.

Washington Nationals

Due to injuries and poor performances, we are seeing the emergence of Tanner Rainey as the Nationals’ top choice to close out games.

Rainey is 3-for-3 in save chances and has yet to give up a run in his four innings. Nevertheless, the advanced metrics must be concerning, with Rainey coughing up a 41.7 hard-hit rate and batters hitting .313 against the right-hander. However, this is a situation to monitor in the coming weeks.

18-20. Deep Waiver Wire Pickups

Seth Beer (1B-ARI)

Seth Beer is ranked as the club’s No. 12 prospect by MLB Pipeline and, since connecting for a walk-off home run on Opening Day, has been on a tear. Beer is hitting .385/.442/.538 along with 1.057 OPS. In addition, he is producing an above-average 48.1 percent hard-hit rate and 42.9 percent line-drive rate to go along with his .519 BABIP. Only rostered in seven percent of ESPN leagues seems ridiculous. Add Beer in all of your fantasy leagues.

Zack Collins (C-TOR)

Zack Collins was acquired in a trade just days before the start of the season and is hitting .286/.310/.571 with two doubles and two homers with four RBI in the first eight games this season. The Blue Jays, like his power-hitting potential and his emergence, arrived at the perfect time with Alejandro Kirk struggling and Danny Jansen currently on the injured list with an oblique strain. The Blue Jays much needed his left-handed power in the Blue Jays lineup, and it will assist fantasy managers in two-catcher leagues where Collins is a sneaky add.

Bruce Zimmermann (SP-BAL)

Bruce Zimmerman entered the season as the No.4 starter in the Baltimore Orioles rotation. The southpaw has been the team’s most consistent pitcher while producing a 1-0 record with a 1.20 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, along with a 9.6 K/9. Zimmermann started the home opener for the Orioles and began the season with 14 scoreless innings. Batters are hitting only .231 against the southpaw. Therefore, Zimmermann is worth a speculative add in deeper formats.

CTAs


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Whether you’re new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy – like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests – to learn more.

Dennis Sosic is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Dennis, check out his archive and follow him @CALL_ME_SOS.

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