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Boom or Bust Report: Quarterbacks (2022 Fantasy Football)

Aug 24, 2022
Kyler Murray

Kyler Murray may be a bit undervalued despite his QB1 overall upside this season.

One of the best and underutilized tools on the FantasyPros website is the Boom or Bust Report. I was recently re-introduced to the tool while conducting research for the launch of the 2022 FantasyPros Draft Kit.

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Fantasy Football Redraft Draft Kit

It’s an invaluable tool for regular 2022 redraft fantasy football leagues and a topic that was covered in great depth by the late Mike Tagliere in his terrific “Boom, Bust, and Everything In Between” series.

The focus will be leveraging this terrific report to identify the players with the most spiked week potential and provide context behind players’ up-and-down performances from 2021.

And as a reminder for this report and the ones to follow for each position — the boom/bust thresholds on the Boom or Bust Report are calculated based on the weekly averages from that year.

For QBs and TEs, a boom week is when the player was at or above the average weekly QB3/TE3 points total. For RBs/WRs, it’s the RB6/WR6 points total.

For QBs and TEs, a bust week is when the player was at or below the average weekly QB18/TE18 points total. For RBs and WRs, it’s the RB40/WR56.

Fantasy Football Redraft Draft Kit

Quarterbacks

Initial Quick Takeaways

  • Among QBs last season, Josh Allen’s 13% weekly bust rate was tied for the lowest with Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford.
  • But Allen’s 44% boom rate ranked first. Rodgers (13%) and Stafford (6%) ranked outside the top eight.
  • Second to Allen was Tom Brady, with a 38% boom rate. It’s an insane number for a quarterback that adds zero value with his legs. Chances are TB12 will experience some regression because the Buccaneers can’t throw any more than they did last season. Brady’s 719 attempts were the second-most by a QB in NFL history.
  • Case in point, Joe Burrow (traditional pocket passer) had fewer “boom” games (two) than Lamar Jackson (Konami code quarterback) despite the latter playing four fewer games.
  • All of Jackson’s three top-six finishes were also top-three finishes.
  • Kyler Murray is the only QB besides Brady with a “boom rate” of 20% or more with an ADP outside the top-five quarterbacks.
  • Five of the QBs ranked inside the top-nine ADP will be without one of their top WRs or pass-catchers for some, if not all, of 2022. Three have kept the same main receiving corps.
  • Jalen Hurts is the only quarterback to retain his 2021 pass-catchers while also adding an established alpha (A.J. Brown). His 13% boom rate has room to grow in 2022, along with his super-high floor. Hence why he is ranked inside my top-three QBs.

  • Dak Prescott posted just one top-three finish last season despite playing in the league’s No. 1 scoring offense. However, Prescott finished as a top-six quarterback in 40% of games played (fifth) which was better than Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts.
  • Aaron Rodgers has finished as a top-six weekly quarterback at a top-five rate over the past two seasons. In his most recent season when he failed to do so (2019), Davante Adams missed four games. Rodgers finished as a top-six QB at a 25% rate that year — a mark that would have ranked 10th in 2021.
  • Kyler Murray and Kirk Cousins had the same amount of top-six finishes last season; the only difference is that Murray’s elite performances provided three top-three finishes, and Cousins had zero “boom” games.
  • Cousins had more top-six finishes (four) than Burrow, Jackson, and Derek Carr.
  • Carr never “boomed” last season. He also posted the lowest top-six finisher rate among QBs inside the top 15 based on ADP (13%).

  • Aaron Rodgers tied for third in the top-six finisher rate with Davante Adams as his No. 1 receiver.
  • Jameis Winston posted two top-six finishes in 2021, despite playing in just seven games with virtually no offensive weapons. A revamped offense provides the perfect conduit for the Saints to unleash Winston as a late-round fantasy QB.
  • Saints QBs as a unit finished with five total top-six finishes between Winston, Taysom Hill, and Trevor Siemian.
  • The highest boom rate for QBs being drafted outside the top-20 quarterbacks:
  • Better rates than Prescott, Stafford and Matt Ryan.
  • Daniel Jones flashed the third-highest boom rate in the NFL in 2019 (23%)
  • Russell Wilson did not post a single “boom” performance in 2021. The only quarterback being drafted inside the top 12 to meet that threshold. He also has the lowest top-six hit rate (15%), lowest top-12 rate (46%) and second-highest bust rate.
  • Considering the only “upgrade” Wilson has moving from Denver to Seattle is more favorable coaching (not necessarily receiver personnel especially after losing Tim Patrick), he’s likely going to be inconsistent and overvalued due to a lack of rushing juice.

  • Ryan Tannehill had zero top-six finishes last season. He had six in 2020.
  • The Titans quarterback has the largest difference in expected passing TDs (30.8) versus actual TDs (21, +9.8).
  • Based on Justin Herbert’s 38% top-six finisher rate, no quarterback has a better chance of returning top-six fantasy value besides Josh Allen among QBs with a top-six ADP. His situation in L.A. has not changed.
  • No quarterback delivered a higher QB1 hit rate than Kyler Murray (77%).
  • Burrow was a top-12 QB in just 50% of his games last season. Same as Lamar Jackson.
  • The Bengals quarterback also finished as a top-six quarterback in just 19% of his games, the second-lowest rate of QBs in the top-12 ADP. Burrow’s current ADP is QB6, and it seems like he is being priced exactly as his ceiling. The Bengals have to be a much more pass-heavy offense
  • Trey Lance (31%) finished at a higher QB1 rate than Jimmy Garoppolo (29%).
  • The 49ers’ rookie quarterback was a top-20 quarterback in his three games with at least a 50% snap share.
  • Carson Wentz had as many top-12 finishes last season as Taylor Heinicke (5).
  • Baker Mayfield had one top-12 performance last season. Fewer than Sam Darnold.
  • Jalen Hurts has been a top-12 fantasy quarterback at an 85% hit rate in the 20 games he’s played all four quarters. The highest single-season rate over the past four seasons was Lamar Jackson’s 2019 93% top-12 rate.

  • No quarterback busted more times than Trevor Lawrence (11).
  • Zach Wilson and Justin Fields ranked directly behind Lawrence in bust rate (67%).
  • Patrick Mahomes posted the highest bust rate among QBs drafted inside the top three (25%).
  • The Chiefs QB’s average fantasy finish in seven games that Tyreek Hill busted in 2021: QB11. One top-five finish.
  • The Chiefs QB’s average fantasy finish in games that Tyreek Hill finished top-20 or better in 2021: QB7. Five top-five finishes.
  • Tua Tagovailoa finished as a top-12 quarterback twice last season to go along with one top-six finish. Identical to Davis Mills, who also played 12 games last season.
  • The Dolphins quarterback has finished as a top-12 quarterback four times in 22 NFL games (18%). Teddy Bridgewater has finished as a top-12 quarterback eight times in 29 NFL games (28%). Last year it was 36%. He signed with the Dolphins this offseason for $6.5 million, and his 2022 cap hit is the highest for a No. 2 quarterback.
  • Zach Wilson finished as a top-12 QB in 25% of his games last season. That was higher than the rookie seasons of Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa. Same as Matt Ryan in 2021.
    • The Jets quarterback’s rushing totals after he returned from injury are slightly overlooked. After averaging just 3.6 rushing yards per game in Weeks 1-6, Wilson averaged 23 rushing yards per game from Weeks 11-18.
    • His fantasy points per game also increased from 10.8 to 15.0 despite playing without his top two receivers, Elijah Moore and Corey Davis, for most of his contests.
    • In the two games Moore played, he averaged 21.6 expected fantasy points per game.
    • But Wilson’s preseason injury makes it seem very unlikely he taps back into rushing anytime soon.
  • After Moore went down, Braxton Berrios emerged as Wilson’s favorite target. The Jets’ slot receiver averaged 14.6 fantasy points and five receptions per game.
  • And before Wilson’s 2021 injury, he fueled Corey Davis as the WR33 in points per game (13.6) through five weeks.
  • Quarterbacks being drafted outside the top 20 that finished as QB1s in 30% or more of their games in 2021:

Top-10 Takeaways

  1. Kyler Murray is being undervalued despite obvious QB1 overall upside.
  2. Not enough people are talking about Jameis Winston.
  3. Joe Burrow is overrated as the fantasy QB6. He is being drafted at his ceiling.
  4. Kirk Cousins is the most undervalued quarterback in fantasy football at QB15 ADP.
  5. Teddy Bridgewater should be drafted/rostered in every single 2QB format. Don’t draft Tua.
  6. Zach Wilson (or Joe Flacco to start the year) should be able to support at least one Jets WR. In 11 games that Wilson started last season, the Jets WR1 (combined efforts of Davis, Moore, and Berrios) posted a 24% target share (7.5 targets per game) and averaged 14.2 fantasy points per game (WR25 last season).
  7. Dak Prescott will be overrated in redraft and left a lot on the table with a 33% bust rate in 2021 — the highest among the top-14 QBs based on ADP. I can’t say that his current offensive situation — albeit his rushing could mitigate these factors — is better than last season. Therefore he will likely be pretty volatile.
  8. Russell Wilson at QB11 ADP might be too rich, and I think he belongs in the same tier as Cousins, Carr and Stafford. He’s the only QB drafted inside the top 12 that failed to hit that mark at least 50% of the time in 2021.
  9. If Derek Carr is ever going to have a career/outlier fantasy year, it must be in 2022. He needs his TD rate to spike and he has the requisite weapons to make it happen.
  10. The late-round QB (if Trey Lance is off the board) is Justin Fields. QB3, QB9, QB8 and QB10 in his last four starts. Good for a 44% QB1 hit rate considering his nine full games played. Same as Carr. The Bears QB’s ADP is QB17.

Other Insights

Projecting QB scoring yearly isn’t super complicated because ADP is usually spot-on at the position. But it’s important to understand and address the massive dip in production when you wander into QBs ranked outside the top 12; more often than not, you won’t find a QB with top-six weekly upside.

As you can see from the graph above, the weekly top-six hit rate falls off drastically versus the 35% average from QBs with top-12 ADPs.

The same goes for QBs going outside the top 15 QBs. The hit rate of signal-callers finishing as consistent top-12 options — at a plus 50% ratio — doesn’t happen.

Therefore in both SuperFlex formats — where you need to prioritize drafting at least two quarterbacks, if not more — I’d strongly recommend having at least two QBs with ADPs inside the top 15. Preferably one should be a top-six drafted passer with legitimate top-three overall upside.

CTAs


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