If you’re like me, you spend a good portion of your week staring at your fantasy lineup, stewing over who to start/sit and gaming out your odds of victory. But sometimes, none of that planning and obsessing ends up mattering in the slightest. Sometimes, you’re facing Joe Mixon.

Mixon’s slate-breaking Week 9 highlights one of the main complaints with fantasy football’s standard head-to-head matchups format. It doesn’t matter how good your team is if your opponent has one player who completely goes off.

Thankfully, there are some steps you — or your commissioner — can take to transform your league into more of a meritocracy. One idea is to award the final playoff spot to the team with the most points, rather than the best record. Another option is to have a second weekly “matchup” against the median score in your league, a la the Scott Fish Bowl. You could even do both.

But enough about league rules. That’s something to figure out in the cold, dark days of January when the fantasy season is over. Let’s get back to that incredible Mixon performance, shall we?

Top 5 Surprises

Joe Mixon’s 5-TD day shows the power of positive regression 
Mixon entered Week 9 ranking second among running backs in expected fantasy points per game (PPR), but just 17th in actual fantasy points per game. In other words, he was getting great usage in a high-end offense, it just wasn’t translating to big numbers. That is the kind of data point that made Mixon a terrific buy-low candidate, but it’s safe to say the buying window slammed shut on Sunday.

Heading into his matchup with the Panthers, the Bengals’ bell cow had just three touchdowns this season and had not topped 100 scrimmage yards since Week 1. But those stats can be shoved into the dustbin of history after Mixon piled up 213 scrimmage yards and five touchdowns (four rushing, one receiving) on Carolina.

There was never much reason to worry about Mixon, who was the overall RB4 in fantasy last year and has been a must-start fantasy option for five years running. He’s been consistently playing over 70% of the snaps in one of the league’s best offenses, so it was only a matter of time until he exploded. Hopefully you weren’t the one facing him this week.

Justin Fields breaks single-game QB rushing record while solidifying QB1 credentials
Fields was already trending up as an every-week fantasy starter, but he answered any lingering doubts with his performance on Sunday. The Bears’ second-year signal caller ran for 178 yards against Miami, breaking Michael Vick’s record for the most rushing yards in a game by a quarterback. Fields also accounted for four touchdowns (three passing, one rushing) and finished second to only Mixon in fantasy scoring for Week 9.

Fields, who has now been a top-seven fantasy QB for four weeks in a row, recently gained Chase Claypool as a passing game weapon and he has mouth-watering matchups with the Lions and Falcons coming up next. Given the sorry state of the QB position in 2022, it is not a stretch to believe that Fields could become a genuine league-winner.

Cordarrelle Patterson scores twice on return, but Tyler Allgeier remains relevant
Fantasy managers were surely excited to welcome Patterson back to their lineups, but there may have been a moment of trepidation when we learned 30 minutes prior to kickoff that the Falcons planned to “ease” him back in this week. That was more or less true — CPatt played just 23 of Atlanta’s 61 offensive snaps — but it hardly mattered. He handled the football on 14 of those snaps, including two that he took into the end zone from inside the five yard line.

While those two touchdowns ensured that Patterson had the biggest fantasy day, rookie Tyler Allgeier didn’t exactly disappear from the equation. Allgeier matched Patterson’s snap count, while producing 123 scrimmage yards on just 11 touches. Caleb Huntley was fairly productive on his seven carries, too.

Moving forward, it’s fair to expect Patterson’s snap count to grow enough to push Huntley out of fantasy relevancy. But Patterson is not built to be a bell cow back and Atlanta is unlikely to use him that way. His season high in snap share was 65% in Week 1, and I’d tentatively look for him to be on the strong side of a 60-40 timeshare with Allgeier in the coming weeks, making Patterson an RB2 and Allgeier a reasonable RB3/flex option.

Seahawks’ feel-good offense feels good for fantasy, too
Not many people expected the post-Russell Wilson Seahawks to be atop the NFC West standings at the season’s halfway point, but Seattle continues to be one of the league’s most pleasant surprises. That feel good story extends to fantasy football, too.

The Seahawks currently rank fourth in the NFL in points per game, and the best news for fantasy purposes is that the vast majority of that statistical production is funneled to the team’s top players: Geno Smith, Kenneth Walker III, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. While injuries threatened to derail the Seahawks, Walker has emerged as a fantasy superstar in Rashaad Penny’s absence while Metcalf and Lockett have managed to keep producing at a high level through injuries that may have sidelined other players.

Noah Fant’s 96-yard day against the Cardinals was nice for anyone who took a chance on him as a streamer, but it will likely go down as a matchup-specific anomaly against an Arizona defense that is woeful at defending tight ends. This offense almost exclusively runs through its top players, and fantasy football managers love to see it.

After a challenging start to his career, Mecole Hardman is settling in
When the Chiefs traded up to select Hardman in the second round of the 2019 NFL draft, it was unclear if Tyreek Hill would ever play another down for the team due to off-field issues. But Hill ended up returning to the team for three more seasons, while Hardman endured a steep learning curve on limited snaps. By the time the Chiefs traded Hill to Miami earlier this year, few people believed Hardman had what it takes to come anywhere close to filling Hill’s shoes.

Comparing anyone to a player as uniquely talented as Hill is an unfair burden, but Hardman has quietly taken huge steps forward for Kansas City this season. While he was prone to both mental and physical errors during his first three seasons, Hardman has suddenly transformed into a dependable target for Patrick Mahomes while continuing to display the immense physical gifts that drew the Hill comparisons in the first place.

Relying on any Chiefs pass-catcher not named Travis Kelce is tough to do, but Hardman has now posted double-digit fantasy performances (0.5 PPR) in four straight games and five touchdowns over his last three contests. While trade deadline acquisition Kadarius Toney generates all the hype, it could take time for him to build the kind of rapport with Mahomes that Hardman now enjoys. That growing chemistry with Mahomes makes Hardman a better roll-of-the-dice WR3/flex option than Toney or Marquez Valdes-Scantling until proven otherwise.

Top 5 Disappointments

Aaron Rodgers and the Pack drop to new lows against lowly Lions
Let’s start with the “good” news: Rodgers threw for a season-high 291 yards this week! Hooray! Ok, now the reality: the soon-to-be-39-year-old future Hall of Famer led his team to just nine points against a Lions defense that ranked dead last in the NFL by a wide margin and had not given up fewer than 24 points in any game this year. That’s what happens when you throw three interceptions in the final third of the field.

Even the fact that Rodgers threw for over 255 yards for the first time this season speaks more to his season-long struggles than anything else. If you can’t safely start Rodgers against Detroit, you can’t safely start him against anybody. Certainly not Dallas next week. He is droppable in all 10- and 12-team single-QB formats.

The Packers have now lost five straight games, and the news is even worse when you factor in injuries. Rookie Romeo Doubs, who looked to finally be developing some chemistry with Rodgers last week, injured his ankle on his first catch and left the locker room with crutches and a walking boot. He’s likely looking at a multi-week absence. Then there’s Aaron Jones, who also had his foot in a walking boot after the game. Jones says he is sore but that x-rays were “fine” and he could have gone back into the game. However, Ian Rapoport reported on Monday morning that the x-rays were “inconclusive,” and that additional testing will be needed to determine the extent of Jones’ injury.

D’Andre Swift barely sees the field — again
Swift returned from a three-game absence in Week 8 and promptly found the end zone. But he handled just five carries in that contest and Lions coach Dan Campbell said after the game that they “probably gave Swift one too many carries.”

Leading up to this week’s game, reports surfaced that Campbell and Co. were still concerned about Swift’s health and planned to again use him sparingly, and that’s exactly what transpired. Swift only played nine snaps against the Packers, so it’s fairly impressive that he was able to manage even 50 yards in the contest. Meanwhile, Jamaal Williams operated as a workhorse, carrying the ball 24 times for 81 yards.

Fantasy managers who spent an early pick on Swift may have no choice but to start him, but the simple truth is that he is going to be a very risky fantasy option until the Lions give us some indication that Swift is healthy enough to return to his pre-injury usage.

Jets, Rams, Dolphins backfields descend into messy, full-blown committees
Well, confidently starting Michael Carter, Darrell Henderson and Raheem Mostert was fun while it lasted. There is still fantasy value to be found in these backfields, but the days of them featuring one clear lead back appear to be over.

The Jets’ backfield was destined to become a committee from the moment New York acquired James Robinson, and that’s what happened in Week 9. Robinson played only six fewer snaps than Carter and out-touched the incumbent 15-to-13. The good news is that both backs were fairly productive with their opportunities and found the end zone. With a great schedule during the fantasy playoffs (DET, JAX, @SEA), they can both be considered high-end RB3s moving forward as long as Ty Johnson remains minimally involved.

The Rams’ backfield may currently be the league’s most convoluted. After seeing his playing time drop last week as he played through an illness, Henderson re-established himself as the team’s primary ball carrier this week, but he played just under half the snaps while Malcolm Brown and a returning Cam Akers took the rest. With Ronnie Rivers also still on the roster and Kyren Williams appearing set to return next week, your guess is as good as mine about where this backfield goes from here. Given LA’s offensive line issues and inability to run the ball, it may not matter.

The Dolphins backfield was turned on its head when Miami acquired old Mike McDaniel favorite Jeff Wilson from San Francisco at the trade deadline. It’s no surprise that Wilson was able to quickly learn the playbook in McDaniel’s “SF East” scheme, but it was unclear entering Week 9 whether Wilson was brought in to be a big part of the offense or merely an insurance policy for Raheem Mostert, a 30-year-old RB with a lengthy injury history. We got our answer right away, as Wilson played more snaps than Mostert in his very first game in Miami. As with the Jets situation, this has the makings of a near-even timeshare in which both backs can be viewed as high-end RB3s.

High-profile trade deadline acquisitions play sparingly in new team debuts
For the most part, Wilson was the exception to the rule when it came to big-name trade deadline acquisitions playing in their first game with their new team. While new Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson did make an immediate impact, becoming the first Minnesota tight end to catch nine passes in a game since 2018, other trade deadline acquisitions including Chase Claypool, Nyheim Hines and Kadarius Toney were infrequently on the field for their first game in a new uniform.

Aside from Hockenson, Claypool is the one who is most certain to play a major role for his team going forward. He played 35.7% of the snaps in his Bears debut, and his two-catch, 13-yard day could have looked much better if he had come down with a couple deep balls where he tangled with Dolphins defenders — one that was penalized and another that could have been.

Hines and Toney, meanwhile, each played fewer than 10 snaps in their first game with their new team. They should both see more time beginning next week, but they’ll need to impress if they want to earn a sizable role. Both now find themselves in elite offenses that already have plenty of other playmakers.

Ugly Colts offense plummets towards “must-avoid” territory
The only offense that had a worse Week 9 than the Packers was the Colts, as Indy managed to score just three points on the road against the Patriots. While Matt Ryan was flat-out bad to begin the year, it certainly doesn’t look like Sam Ehlinger is going to be an upgrade for the Colts’ pass-catchers. He completed just 15 of his 29 passes for 103 yards and an interception against New England, while his top target Michael Pittman caught only three balls for 22 yards.

Given the state of this offense, Alec Pierce and Parris Campbell are firmly off the fantasy radar, while Pittman must now be considered more of a WR3 than a WR2. The Colts’ backfield has also become a headache, as Jonathan Taylor missed this game with a lingering ankle injury and his replacement, Deon Jackson, left it with a knee injury. Unless you’re truly desperate, this offense does not merit going out of your way to roster marginal talents like Jordan Wilkins (remember him?), Phillip Lindsay (remember him?) or recent trade acquisition Zack Moss.

Key Stats

Tyler Higbee is averaging one catch for seven yards over his last three games. Higbee was a temporary savior for tight end needy fantasy managers early in the year, earning nine or more targets in four of his first five games and topping 60 receiving yards in three straight games from Weeks 2-4. But whether its due to him not being fully healthy or the Rams simply mixing things up, Higbee’s role in the offense has completely disappeared over the last month.

James Conner played 72% of the snaps in his first game back. That matches his season-high snap share set back in Week 1. While the Cardinals’ inconsistent offense will cap his upside, Conner’s projected usage as both a rusher and receiver out of the backfield should be enough to return RB2 value going forward.

Justin Fields reached 20 miles per hour on two of his carries this week. Fields is the first QB to reach 20 mph on two carries in the same game this season. I usually try to highlight different names in the “key stats” section, but Fields’ recent performances merit a second mention. Stud.

Top Takeaways

The Mixon Effect: Regression — both positive and negative — is real. This is a numbers business, and fantasy managers understandably get frustrated when their top players aren’t performing. But Joe Mixon’s Week 9 explosion is a good reminder than usage is king in the long run. Mixon was constantly being put in a good position to accrue fantasy points, it just hadn’t fully materialized through the season’s first eight weeks. With that kind of opportunity, it was only a matter of time until a player of his caliber had a big breakthrough. It won’t always be this big a break though, mind you, but you get the point.

When we talk about “regression,” people tend to think about negative regression, and that certainly exists as well. A player on a bad offense can score two touchdowns in any given week, but you shouldn’t expect it to be a regular occurrence. Same goes for a 100-yard game from a guy seeing only a couple targets each week. This is why we don’t chase last week’s stats.

The Fields Effect: The Konami Code lives on. Following Justin Fields’ massive Week 9, five of the top-eight QBs in fantasy points per game have at least 300 rushing yards on the year: Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray and Fields. Two others — Daniel Jones and Marcus Mariota — have been rock solid QB2s almost entirely on the strength of their rushing contributions. All of which is to say that the Konami Code for running quarterbacks is alive and well in 2022.

Alright, that’s it for this week. If you like what you see here, you can get more of my thoughts on waiver wire pickups, buy-low/sell-high candidates, rest-of-season player values, and more by subscribing to the Rest of Season Rankings Podcast and going to ROSrankings.com. I’m also always happy to help you sort through injury-related conundrums or anything else fantasy-related on Twitter @andrew_seifter.

Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.