The busiest trade deadline in NFL history wrapped up on Tuesday afternoon. When the dust settled, 10 deals were completed on Tuesday alone, and 16 were agreed to over the last two weeks. As a result, there are several fantasy football implications due to multiple fantasy-relevant players changing teams.
We asked our analysts to break down every move and provide an updated outlook for all of the relevant players and position groups.
Every NFL fan after the trade deadline pic.twitter.com/kX05kCIVjy
— FantasyPros (@FantasyPros) November 1, 2022
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NFL Trade Deadline Fantasy Football Takeaways & Implications
Chase Claypool Traded to Chicago Bears
The Bears have taken some heat for not investing in young QB Justin Fields‘ supporting cast, but Bears GM Ryan Poles made an aggressive move to give Fields another pass catcher. Chase Claypool is still playing on his rookie deal, so the Bears have him signed through 2023. To acquire Claypool, the Bears sacrificed the second-round pick they got from the Ravens for LB Roquan Smith.
It’s hard to discern the impact this move will have on Claypool’s fantasy value, but it might end up being a break-even proposition. Claypool goes from sharing targets with Diontae Johnson, George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth to being a No. 1 or No. 2 receiver in Chicago — or perhaps a co-No. 1 with Darnell Mooney. On the other hand, the Steelers have passed on 62.5% of their offensive snaps this season, the 11th-highest rate in the league, while the Bears have passed on 40.1% of their offensive snaps, the lowest rate in the league. So it’s less target competition for Claypool in a far more conservative offense. That seems like a push for fantasy purposes, and there might be a slight value loss when you consider that Claypool will probably play very limited snaps for his new team in Week 9, making him unplayable for fantasy purposes.
The move helps Justin Fields, whose fantasy value was already on the rise. Beyond Mooney, the Bears were giving meaningful WR snaps to Dante Pettis, Equanimeous St. Brown and N’Keal Harry. A Mooney-Claypool combo is a legitimate 1-2 punch. Mooney loses a small bit of value, though he’ll still remain a viable WR3 or flex option. TE Cole Kmet was barely fantasy-viable and now becomes even less playable. Pettis, St. Brown and Harry are now unrosterable even in the deepest of leagues.
The big gainer in this deal is Pickens, a second-round rookie who’s looked like a future star at times this season. Pickens has 43 targets this season, seven fewer than Claypool. He’s now in line to get most of Claypool’s vacated targets. Despite being shut out against the Eagles in Week 8, Pickens is now an every-week fantasy starter — and potentially a very valuable one. Johnson and Freiermuth get slight value bumps, too, though not to the same degree as Pickens. This deal shouldn’t have any measurable effect on the value of QB Kenny Pickett.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
T.J. Hockenson Traded to Minnesota Vikings
This deal came out of left field. There was little to no buzz about Hockenson being on the trading block. Not only did the Lions deal him, but they dealt him within the division. (More on that in a minute.)
The Vikings just lost Irv Smith to a significant ankle injury. Rather than roll with Johnny Mundt and Ben Ellefson, Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah made a bold move at the position.
Minnesota receives Hockenson, a 2023 fourth-round pick and a conditional 2024 fourth-round pick. Detroit receives a 2023 second-round pick and a 2024 third-round pick. On the surface, it’s a reasonable exchange of value between a team eyeing a playoff run this year and a team gazing further into the future.
The move probably does little to change Hockenson’s fantasy value. Hockenson has averaged 6.1 targets a game this season in Detroit. Smith has averaged 4.7 targets a game for the Vikings this year. Hockenson is the better player, so it’s unlikely he’ll see fewer targets with his new team, but it’s also improbable that he’ll get a significant boost in target volume.
The trade shouldn’t alter the fantasy value of Vikings WRs Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen or K.J. Osborn in any significant way either. Vikings QB Kirk Cousins gets a slight value bump — Hockenson is a clear upgrade over Smith.
Detroit doesn’t have much at tight end with Hockenson out of the picture. Brock Wright, who had 12 receptions last year and has 6-88-0 as a receiver this year, is now No. 1 on the depth chart. At best he’ll have low-end TE2 value. Keep your FAAB money in your pocket.
The biggest value gainers here? Probably the Lions’ wide receivers and running backs. Wright will probably get an extra target or two per game. That leaves the rest or Hockenson’s vacated 6.1 targets a game to Amon-Ra St. Brown, D’Andre Swift, Josh Reynolds and others. It won’t be a target windfall by any means, but there will at least be residual fantasy benefits.
Side note: It used to be taboo to make trades within your division. Adofo-Mensah certainly isn’t a traditionalist in that regard. Adofo-Mensah made multiple trades with NFC North rivals at the draft, including a deal in which he gave up Minnesota’s first-round pick so that Detroit could select WR Jameson Williams.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
Nyheim Hines Traded to Buffalo Bills, Zack Moss Traded to Indianapolis Colts
The Bills pursued J.D. McKissic in free agency, didn’t land him, then spent a late second-round pick on James Cook. Still restless with their RB depth behind Devin Singletary, the Bills acquired Nyheim Hines from the Colts in exchange for RB Zack Moss and a conditional sixth-round pick in 2023.
Hines will immediately slot in as the Bills’ passing-down back. The deal boosts Hines’ value simply because the Bills have such a potent offense, which means more touchdown opportunity. Josh Allen is one of the most effective running quarterbacks in the league, but that doesn’t necessarily mean fewer pass-catching opportunities for his running backs. Buffalo RBs have accounted for 21.2% of team targets this season, the 13th-highest percentage in the league. Hines has midrange RB4 value rest of season bordering on RB3 value in full-point PPR leagues.
The trade could pump a small bit of life into the previously deflated fantasy value of Moss, who had clearly fallen out of favor in Buffalo after failing to capitalize on a chance for a bigger role in 2021. Moss and Deon Jackson are now the tag-team backups to Jonathan Taylor, who’s been dealing with an ankle problem. If Taylor were to miss time, Moss would likely get a healthy share of early-down work for the Colts.
There could be some residual value gainers in Indianapolis. Deon Jackson could get more passing-down snaps with Hines out of the picture. Some of Hines’ vacated targets will go elsewhere, and short-area WR Parris Campbell might be the biggest beneficiary.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
Chase Edmonds Traded to Denver Broncos, Jeff Wilson Jr. Traded to Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins did some RB shuffling at the trade deadline, sending Chase Edmonds to the Broncos as part of the deal to acquire edge rusher Bradley Chubb, and giving up a fifth-round pick in 2023 to acquire Jeff Wilson.
Edmonds opened the season as Miami’s starting RB, playing 63% of the team’s offensive snaps in Week 1, but was quickly supplanted by Raheem Mostert. Edmonds joins a crowded, muddled backfield in Denver that also includes Melvin Gordon, Latavius Murray and the injured Mike Boone (currently on IR with an ankle injury). Perhaps there’s a small chance that Edmonds can leapfrog Gordon and Murray to become chairman of Denver’s RB committee, but that seems improbable given both his lack of success this season (2.9 yards per carry) and his unfamiliarity with the Broncos’ playbook.
Wilson had been the primary backup to opening day starter Elijah Mitchell and ascended to a lead role after Mitchell went down with a knee injury, but then the 49ers swung the blockbuster deal for Christian McCaffrey. That knocked Wilson down to No. 2 on the depth chart, and he would have been No. 3 upon Wilson’s return. Now, Wilson is likely to be the primary backup to Mostert — Miami’s willingness to give up a fifth-rounder for Wilson isn’t exactly a vote of confidence in Myles Gaskin — and may see some work on passing downs. Wilson doesn’t have a great deal of fantasy value now, but it’s more than he would have had as a third wheel in San Francisco.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
Kadarius Toney Traded to Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs’ aggressive move to acquire second-year WR Kadarius Toney was an attention-getter, grabbing us by the lapels and reminding them that Toney is capable of being something more than a regular denizen of inactive lists.
A lot of fantasy managers became smitten with Toney in Weeks 4 and 5 of 2021, when he had 6-78-0 receiving vs. the Saints and 10-189-0 vs. the Cowboys, showing off springy, quick-twitch athleticism and after-the-catch explosion. Those qualities were evident in his final college season at the University of Florida, prompting the Giants to take him with the 20th overall pick in last year’s draft.
The question is whether Toney can turn his special athleticism into consistent NFL production. My fear is that he might be the second coming of Percy Harvin – another special athlete from Florida who dealt with myriad injuries. Harvin didn’t live up to expectations because his body wouldn’t cooperate. We’ll see if the same thing happens with Toney, who’s been sidelined all season with not one but two hamstring injuries.
Toney clearly didn’t see eye to eye with new Giants head coach Brian Daboll. We’ll see how he gets along with Andy Reid, a wildly imaginative playcaller who loves having speed at the skill positions.
How much is Toney going to play? JuJu Smith-Schuster is entrenched as the Chiefs’ primary slot receiver, and Toney probably isn’t going to take snaps from Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who signed a three-year, $30 million deal in the offseason. Could Mecole Hardman be squeezed out as the No. 3 receiver? It’s possible, but Toney would probably have to cash in on opportunities as a No. 4 receiver before Reid took snaps away from Hardman.
It’s possible Toney becomes fantasy-viable in time for the stretch run of the fantasy season. It’s going to take a while. Toney will have to learn a new system and work his way up the depth chart. It seems unlikely we’ll be thinking about plugging him into our fantasy lineups at any time before Thanksgiving.
Some people don’t think the Toney acquisition significantly damages the longer-term fantasy value of rookie Skyy Moore. I beg to differ. It wasn’t a great sign that Moore struggled to overtake Justin Watson, a former fifth-round draft pick from the Ivy League, on the depth chart. It’s not a great sign that the Chiefs are giving up a third-round compensatory pick and a sixth-round pick to bring in another receiver. I have Moore on one of my dynasty teams. I’m not going to loudly proclaim that I’m trying to sell him, but I’ll quietly gauge interest in hopes of moving him for something of value.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
Let’s get this out of the way. The move for Kadarius Toney is not about this season for the Chiefs. With Juju Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman hitting the free agent market after this season, Kansas City absorbs a talented former first-round pick under contract, at least for 2023 and 2024. Toney flashed big-time upside in his rookie season, ranking seventh in targets per route run. Toney was also 11th in yards per route run and eighth in YAC per reception (minimum 50 targets, per PFF). Toney could possibly push for snaps this season, but I think his value lies more in the dynasty realm than 2022 redraft fantasy football. The Chiefs continue to play chess while the rest of the league’s front offices (outside of PHI) mutter around with their checkerboard.
– Derek Brown
For this trade to really matter, Kadarius Toney has to actually step onto a field and play football at some point. That has been his primary issue over the last two seasons with the Giants, though it seems like there may be more going on behind the scenes here. The new regime in New Jersey apparently isn’t willing to wait around for Toney anymore, while Andy Reid and the Chiefs are buying low on a WR who was drafted in the first round just last season. Through seven weeks in 2022, Toney has appeared in just two games, catching two passes for exactly zero yards.
While Toney is joining a better (and more pass-happy) offense, he’s also joining a crowded WR room that already includes JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman, Skyy Moore and Justin Watson, in addition to the best pass-catching TE in the league in Travis Kelce.
Toney is an easy buy right now in keeper and dynasty formats, and he’s an intriguing stash in redraft. The issues in redraft are that Toney has been injured all year, will be learning a new offense on the fly, is joining a crowded WR room, AND the Chiefs are on their bye this week. If you’re adding Toney, you probably have to do so knowing he is going to be on your bench for at least the next two weeks.
However, he has league-winning upside if things click in Kansas City. This all depends on your current record and your roster limitations. Can you afford to grab and stash, or do you need that roster spot to do everything you can to win the next two weeks?
On the Giants’ side of things, not much changes. Wan’Dale Robinson continues to look like the guy, and the offense has operated without Toney for much of the season anyway. Kenny Golladay looks like dust, and it’s possible this trade is a precursor to another move. Do the Giants use some of this draft capital to make a move for someone like Jerry Jeudy, perhaps?
– Mike Maher
James Robinson Traded to New York Jets
The Jets, trying not to let Breece Hall‘s season-ending knee injury torpedo a fine start to their season, beefed up their RB stable with James Robinson. It’s a logical move. The 5-8, 201-pound Michael Carter isn’t built to carry a backfield by himself but is a good rotational back. Robinson has carried the Jaguars backfield in the past. He can handle as much work as the Jets want to give him, and the Jets are no longer one RB injury away from turning their backfield over to the pedestrian Ty Johnson and undrafted free agent Zonovan Knight.
Carter investors can no longer dream of him having RB2 value, but Carter is certainly more valuable now than he would have been as Hall’s caddie. Robinson stakeholders have to be pleased that Robinson escapes Jacksonville, where he was quickly becoming marginalized, and will work his way into what’s probably going to be a near-50/50 workload split with Carter.
In my rest-of-season rankings. I have Carter ranked RB27 and Robinson RB29. I favor Carter because he’s the better pass catcher, and pass-catching could provide an important value boost, since opponents have little reason to respect QB Zach Wilson and can creep up safeties in an effort to stop the Jets’ running game. (Robinson is a decent pass catcher himself.)
Meanwhile, the outlook keeps getting better and better for the Jaguars’ Travis Etienne, who’s going to dominate snaps and touches in the Jacksonville backfield. JaMycal Hasty will provide occasional relief. Fifth-round rookie Snoop Conner, who has been a healthy inactive in every Jaguars game so far, will get some work, too. But this is the Etienne show. My rest-of-season ranking for him is RB15.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
Christian McCaffrey Traded to San Francisco 49ers
A trade tidal wave just washed over the fantasy landscape. Christian McCaffrey is now a San Francisco 49er. The RB4 in fantasy football joins an offense that’s tenth in yards per play, 19th in total points scored, and 17th in total yards. What does it mean for fantasy?
Let’s get this out of the way. In case anyone was wondering, McCaffrey remains a top-five running back in fantasy. Jeff Wilson has been holding down the fort, but now he’ll be regulated to a backup role along with the other warm bodies in the running back room. McCaffrey has shown no signs of slowing down. He’s first in snap share, first in opportunity share, and second in weighted opportunities averaging 19.7 touches and 111.7 total yards. McCaffrey is 11th in evaded tackles, tenth in breakaway runs, and ninth in yards created per touch (per Playerprofiler.com).
As good as McCaffrey is, he couldn’t be the entire offense in Carolina. The Panthers are a dumpster fire ranked 31st in red zone scoring attempts per game. The 49ers should offer McCaffrey, 33rd in red zone opportunities, more touchdown chances. San Francisco is 22nd in red zone scoring attempts per game. The big differentiator is that the 49ers are third in red zone rushing rate. So here come the touchdowns for McCaffrey, who only has three for the season.
CMC: Pre-Trade & Post-Trade pic.twitter.com/B677ebJ66O
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) October 21, 2022
The 49ers have not thrown to their running backs this season, as they have the seventh-lowest target share to the position. That will change with the arrival of McCaffrey. McCaffrey might not see the 24.3% target share (first) that he saw in Carolina, but make no mistake, he’ll be involved in the short passing game with the pop gun arm of Jimmy Garoppolo. The added fallout effect of McCaffrey’s arrival could be Deebo Samuel seeing more targets in the intermediate and deep portions of the field. Samuel has seen his aDOT fall from 8.1 last year to 5.1 (97th) this season.
This will add to Samuel’s value and the San Francisco offense overall. Last season Samuel was first in yards per route run and second in passer rating when targeted deep (minimum ten deep targets, per PFF).
This move is fantastic for the 49ers, Christian McCaffrey, and everyone with McCaffrey in fantasy football.
– Derek Brown
Never mind that the 49ers probably gave up too much draft capital for a 26-year-old running back who’s been less than durable in recent years. San Francisco’s deal for Christian McCaffrey was seismic — an earth-shaker in both the NFL and the fantasy realm.
Some quick thoughts on the fantasy repercussions:
- McCaffrey is once again fantasy football’s RB1. He wasn’t that far from it even in a putrid Carolina offense. But now? With an offense that can sustain drives and put CMC in position to score a bevy of touchdowns? Yes, please.
- While McCaffrey investors should be over the moon about this deal, it doesn’t help them in Week 7. Will CMC suit up and play for the Niners this weekend? Maybe. If he does, it’s hard to imagine he’ll play more than 10-15 snaps. I’ve tentatively slotted him as the RB19 for this week.
- Jimmy Garoppolo is an average NFL starter at best, but the addition of McCaffrey could push him into low-end QB1 territory. I suspect that Jimmy G will be eagerly leverage McCaffrey’s exceptional pass-catching talents. CMC’s contributions as a pass catcher will give Garoppolo’s numbers a nice boost.
- The McCaffrey acquisition probably won’t have a major affect on WR Brandon Aiyuk or TE George Kittle. It could lop off about 10% of Deebo Samuel‘s value, however. What’s the incentive to use Deebo in the running game when you have CMC in your backfield? Oh sure, Deebo will still get a few carries on gadget plays. But a significant role in the running game? Doubtful.
- As for the fantasy value Elijah Mitchell and Jeff Wilson … well, fellas, it was fun while it lasted.
Let’s not forget about the Panthers (as much as we might like to) …
The Carolina backfield is probably going to be a timeshare between D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard. Foreman is a big dude, so he’s destined to be the goal line guy. But Foreman isn’t much of a pass catcher. He has 18 receptions in 32 career games. Hubbard will likely get most of the passing-down snaps, and he might get some early-down work, too. The guess here is that Foreman will have slightly more fantasy value than Hubbard.
But let’s be clear: This is a bleak situation. Yes, opportunity counts for a lot at the RB position. But the Panthers will score very few touchdowns this season. They won’t have many long, sustained drives. They’ll probably lead the league in three-and-outs. Whichever Carolina running back leads the way in this backfield, he’ll probably have midrange RB3 value at best.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
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If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
